Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Flooding, tornadoes for TX, OK; dangerous 92L forms; 4th hottest summer for U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2010

Dangerous flash flooding is occurring in Eastern Oklahoma this morning, where rainfall rates as heavy as three inches per hour from the remains of Tropical Storm Hermine are occurring. A large area of Eastern Oklahoma received 3 - 6 inches of rain last night and this morning, with radar-estimated rainfall amounts as high as fifteen inches (Figure 2.) Yesterday, Hermine killed two people in Texas, who were attempting to cross flood waters in their vehicles. Hermine dropped 6 - 8 inches of rain in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, creating moderate to major flooding along the Trinity River in Dallas. Two tornadoes touched down near Dallas, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged a total of eight tornado reports in Oklahoma and Texas from Hermine. The latest rainfall totals from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center show 15.62" fell in Georgetown, Texas, with fifteen locations in Texas receiving over ten inches of rain. Big city rainfall totals included 7.57" at Austin, 6.73" at San Antonio, 6.52" at Dallas, and 7.20" at Fort Worth.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas area from Hermine shows a large area of 6+ inches of rain, with maximum amounts of ten inches.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for eastern Oklahoma, where up to fifteen inches of rain fell last night and this morning.

Potentially dangerous Lesser Antilles tropical disturbance 92L forms
A tropical disturbance (92L) has developed over the extreme southeastern Caribbean just north of the coast of South America, over the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. Surface observations indicate that pressures have been slowly falling at a number of stations, and satellite loops show a modest region of heavy thunderstorm activity is building. A strong flow of upper level easterly winds is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and the waters are plenty warm for development. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies over the northern Caribbean, but this dry air should not interfere with development over the next two days.

The disturbance is slowly drifting westward, but steering currents favor a more northwest motion Friday and Saturday. Lower shear lies over the Central Caribbean, away from the coast of South America, so any northward component of motion will allow for more significant development. There is drier air to the north, but 92L is steadily moistening the atmosphere in the Caribbean, so dry air may not be a problem for it. There is substantial model support for development. The disturbance is in a dangerous location for development, and gives me the greatest concern of any Atlantic disturbance so far this year. The models predict that by Saturday, 92L will bring heavy rains to Puerto Rico. These rains will then spread to the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba on Monday. The longer range track of 92L is uncertain, and will strongly depend on where the storm drifts during the next two days. The ECMWF and GFS models predict a more southerly path through the Western Caribbean towards Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and the NOGAPS and Canadian models predict a more northerly path along the length of Cuba towards Florida. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. Stay tuned.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous disturbance in the Southeast Caribbean.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is barely hanging on in the face of 20 - 25 knots of winds shear, courtesy of strong upper-level winds out of the east. The shear has exposed Igor's low level circulation to view, and the storm has just one small spot of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Once Igor gets another 200 miles away from Africa, the shear should decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and allow steady strengthening to occur. Waters are warm, 28°C, and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of Igor, so the storm should intensity once the shear drops. The models are pretty unanimous about developing Igor into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. Igor will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting the storm several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands a week from now. Climatology shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas, and the odds of Igor hitting land are lower than climatology.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models predict the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 4 - 6 days from now.

Hottest summer in history for 50 million Americans
The U.S. had its fourth warmest summer since record keeping began 116 years ago, according to statistics issued yesterday by the National Climatic Data Center. Only 1936, 2006 and 1934 were hotter. Ten states had their warmest summer on record--Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. Seventeen other states had a top-ten warmest summer, including five states that had their second warmest summer in history (Figure 4.) No states had a top-ten coldest summer. Record daily highs outpaced record daily lows by about 4 to 1 during the summer, with 5,287 daily record highs set, and 1,426 record lows. The summer warmth was a pretty remarkable swing from this past winter, which was the 18th coldest in U.S. history.

Figure 4. State-by-state temperature rankings for the summer of 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, approximately 50 - 60 million Americans experienced their hottest summer ever. No summer in U.S. history has affected so many Americans as "hottest-summer-on-record". The following large cities all posted a record hottest summer:

Washington D.C. National Airport: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1943)
Dulles Airport, VA: 77.8° (old record 76.8° summer of 2007)
Richmond, VA: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Atlantic City, NJ: 77.5° (old record 75.8° summer of 2005)
Philadelphia, PA: 79.6° (old record 78.9° summer of 1995)
New York City (Central Park): 77.8° (old record 77.3° summer of 1966)
Trenton, NJ: 77.7° (old record 76.5° summer of 1898)
Wilmington, DE: 77.8° (old record 77.7° summer of 1900)
Baltimore, MD: 79.2° (old record 79.1° summer of 1943)
Norfolk, VA: 81.1° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Tampa, FL: 84.5° (previous record 84.2° in 1998)
Lakeland, FL: 84.6° (previous record 84.4° in 1987)
St. Petersburg, FL: 85.6° (old record 84.6° in 1987)

Santa Barbara, CA was the only major U.S. city that had its coldest summer on record, though several other California cities were unusually cool. San Diego had its 3rd coolest summer, and the Los Angeles airport had its 2nd coolest summer.

Fortunately, it was a very wet summer, and the record heat did not lead to widespread drought. Summer 2010 ranked as the 16th wettest summer in the 116-year record for the contiguous U.S. Wisconsin had its wettest summer on record, and six other states had a top-ten wettest summer. No state had a top-ten driest summer.

Next post
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX (Richochet)

Tornado (bright area, middle of photo over flooded Trinity River, form during an evening squall from TS Hermine

Hermine is on the way (BBedford)

Wave action on Padre Island,near Bob Hall pier this afternoon. Rain bands are already coming ashore.

Tornado Damage Dallas, TX (Bordonaro)

An EF-2 Tornado (winds 111-115MPH) spawned by TD Hermine 9-8-10@ 6:20PM CDT damages warehouse in Dallas, TX.

Categories: Flood Climate Summaries Hurricane

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2901. Stormchaser2007 1:42 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
No wonder the East Pacific is dead... Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

2902. shawn26 1:43 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
By the new models, looks like Florida is coming in to play more and more with 92L. Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 203

2903. TheDawnAwakening 1:43 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
WOW, thanks StormW, needed to see that graphic, for some reason I didn't look at the eastern Atlantic map, dumb on my part. You are right shear shouldn't be a problem any more, but the cloud tops look sheared from east to west, but again the system is in an intensification phase so he won't look perfect right away. My bad on that one. Last few frames shows Igor intensifying with a potential curved convective band on the western part of the circulation and of course deep convection over the COC. Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 215 Comments: 3159

2904. TampaSpin 1:43 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting StormW: Morning Tim! Long time, no see. Hey Brother, Looks like problems brewing in the Caribbean. Igor might look better but, 92L will be the current stinker in 2-3 days of development. I don't like the set up coming. Looks like a hole shot toward the Yucatn then a turn toward the NW of 92L. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2905. Vince2005 1:44 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
AL, 11, 2010091012, , BEST, 0, 163N, 303W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 30, 30, 1012, 200, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, M, Member Since: August 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 42

2906. WeatherMSK 1:44 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Agree 92L doesnt look very good. However there is a broad area of circulation. If 92L develops it is going to be a few days I think. Member Since: February 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 465

2907. Drakoen 1:45 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting zoomiami: Good morning! Nice to see actual discussions about the storms instead of nonsense. Nonsense quotient was way to high last night. Storm: why is there such a difference between the ensemble models and the "computer" models? I understand they are different packages, but not sure why the variance. Thanks Ensembles have slightly different variations in initial output to get a feel for what may happen in different situations of our multivariate climate. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2908. Goldenblack 1:46 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Alright, sorry to be annoyed, but here is my parting infomercial for the morning, then back to programming: Ways to NOT get taken seriously on the blog: 1. Say something like "XXL is dead, yea!" before the system has even evolved" 2. Say the system is going to "X" before it evolves. 3. Say "I have been doing this for some time", I say: "show me your trophy" 4. Say that "I said a system would do this during .."X"...storm. I say "you'd better show me the WHOLE STRING before I am going to take you seriously. Now if you are Storm, Levi, Drak, weatherman03, etc., it is known and proven on a daily basis. If you are not, don't post trash.....it muddles what the rest of like to read. Sorry that I had to muddle it myself just now with this post. Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 705

2909. zoomiami 1:46 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
My other concern is that if 92L does grab hold and develop, that we could see a situation like Hermine -- the rapid development so close to home. Doesn't give anybody much chance to prepare. Wasn't it Humberto that did that in the gulf? Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4065

2910. TampaSpin 1:47 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Looks like 15-20kts of shear near Igor and 10-15kts near 92L ....Both should drop by 5mph the further West they move. Then BOOM BOOM! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2911. WeatherMSK 1:47 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
I just think there is too much dry sinking air just to the north of 92L which is affecting upward motion. Member Since: February 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 465

2912. NOSinger 1:47 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting kmanhurricaneman: i have been doing this for a while so i know what i am saying, i told every one Gaston was dead too even though models were saying diferent. Those who need to profess "how long" they've been "doing this" probably haven't been... Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 232

2913. zoomiami 1:47 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Ensembles have slightly different variations in initial output to get a feel for what may happen in different situations of our multivariate climate. Hi Drak: how's college going? So basically the ensemble is a type of "what if" scenario? Thanks Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4065

2916. 69Viking 1:49 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting Goldenblack: Alright, sorry to be annoyed, but here is my parting infomercial for the morning, then back to programming: Ways to NOT get taken seriously on the blog: 1. Say something like "XXL is dead, yea!" before the system has even evolved" 2. Say the system is going to "X" before it evolves. 3. Say "I have been doing this for some time", I say: "show me your trophy" 4. Say that "I said a system would do this during .."X"...storm. I say "you'd better show me the WHOLE STRING before I am going to take you seriously. Now if you are Storm, Levi, Drak, weatherman03, etc., it is known and proven on a daily basis. If you are not, don't post trash.....it muddles what the rest of like to read. Sorry that I had to muddle it myself just now with this post. LMAO, that was good! I was just lurking but that deserves some Kudos! Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2247

2917. kmanhurricaneman 1:49 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
92L needs moisture fast to survive Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002

2918. surfmom 1:50 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
ZOO - shhhhhh, the mornings in here have been totally terrific - lot's of learning, great discussions Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

2920. Drakoen 1:50 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting zoomiami: Hi Drak: how's college going? So basically the ensemble is a type of "what if" scenario? Thanks It's going pretty good. Just trying to get the prereqs out of the way so I can get into the core courses. Should have the prereqs done by the end of the second semester. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2921. Goldenblack 1:50 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Thank you very much Viking, just had to get it off my chest, we just had one in here doing those very things. Quoting 69Viking: LMAO, that was good! I was just lurking but that deserves some Kudos! Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 705

2923. kshipre1 1:52 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
can i ask a crazy question? what is the CMC model? Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130

2924. Drakoen 1:52 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane: Then are the ensembles all part of the GFS component? The GEFS is the ensembles of the GFS so yes; however, each individual computer forecast model has its own ensemble forecast. The best thing to do is look at the mean of the ensemble, sort of "line of best fit" if you will to get an overall idea. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2925. TampaSpin 1:53 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
This is exactly what i think 92L will do as i just described...DANG! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2929. surfmom 1:55 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Zoo - good question Drak - thx for the AHA!! moment Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

2930. kmanhurricaneman 1:55 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
those who know me from years being on this blogg will admit i dont harbor arguments of character so the only thing i have for you young man is "grow up" Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002

2931. stillwaiting 1:55 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting surfmom: ...Aloha neighbor, looking to borrow one of my surfboards? : ) wonder how the fishing has been - Tarpon done running by now??? ,...snooooook seasons here!!!!,atleast for a bit,it'd borrow a board,buy i don't have to tell u how lack luster this side of the gom's been so far this tc season,but fear not as we swing into end of sept and into oct our greatest threat will be upon us and with a latter peaking season then normal i suspect our area will be extremely busy thru mid sept-end oct!!!!! Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

2932. Patrap 1:56 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
NEW ENTRY....bring Fresca's and Chips. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

2933. hercj 1:56 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting Goldenblack: Thank you very much Viking, just had to get it off my chest, we just had one in here doing those very things. I second that. This was the truth. Member Since: September 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

2934. kshipre1 2:06 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
thanks storm! as always, I look forward to your tropical weather synopsis Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130

2935. jeffs713 2:08 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting kshipre1: can i ask a crazy question? what is the CMC model? The Canadian model. Decent for large-scale synoptic patterns, junk (usually) for smaller scale and tropical systems. Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722

2936. JBirdFireMedic 2:09 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
NEW BLOG! Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 246

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