Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Flooding, tornadoes for TX, OK; dangerous 92L forms; 4th hottest summer for U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2010

Dangerous flash flooding is occurring in Eastern Oklahoma this morning, where rainfall rates as heavy as three inches per hour from the remains of Tropical Storm Hermine are occurring. A large area of Eastern Oklahoma received 3 - 6 inches of rain last night and this morning, with radar-estimated rainfall amounts as high as fifteen inches (Figure 2.) Yesterday, Hermine killed two people in Texas, who were attempting to cross flood waters in their vehicles. Hermine dropped 6 - 8 inches of rain in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, creating moderate to major flooding along the Trinity River in Dallas. Two tornadoes touched down near Dallas, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged a total of eight tornado reports in Oklahoma and Texas from Hermine. The latest rainfall totals from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center show 15.62" fell in Georgetown, Texas, with fifteen locations in Texas receiving over ten inches of rain. Big city rainfall totals included 7.57" at Austin, 6.73" at San Antonio, 6.52" at Dallas, and 7.20" at Fort Worth.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas area from Hermine shows a large area of 6+ inches of rain, with maximum amounts of ten inches.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for eastern Oklahoma, where up to fifteen inches of rain fell last night and this morning.

Potentially dangerous Lesser Antilles tropical disturbance 92L forms
A tropical disturbance (92L) has developed over the extreme southeastern Caribbean just north of the coast of South America, over the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. Surface observations indicate that pressures have been slowly falling at a number of stations, and satellite loops show a modest region of heavy thunderstorm activity is building. A strong flow of upper level easterly winds is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and the waters are plenty warm for development. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies over the northern Caribbean, but this dry air should not interfere with development over the next two days.

The disturbance is slowly drifting westward, but steering currents favor a more northwest motion Friday and Saturday. Lower shear lies over the Central Caribbean, away from the coast of South America, so any northward component of motion will allow for more significant development. There is drier air to the north, but 92L is steadily moistening the atmosphere in the Caribbean, so dry air may not be a problem for it. There is substantial model support for development. The disturbance is in a dangerous location for development, and gives me the greatest concern of any Atlantic disturbance so far this year. The models predict that by Saturday, 92L will bring heavy rains to Puerto Rico. These rains will then spread to the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba on Monday. The longer range track of 92L is uncertain, and will strongly depend on where the storm drifts during the next two days. The ECMWF and GFS models predict a more southerly path through the Western Caribbean towards Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and the NOGAPS and Canadian models predict a more northerly path along the length of Cuba towards Florida. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. Stay tuned.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous disturbance in the Southeast Caribbean.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is barely hanging on in the face of 20 - 25 knots of winds shear, courtesy of strong upper-level winds out of the east. The shear has exposed Igor's low level circulation to view, and the storm has just one small spot of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Once Igor gets another 200 miles away from Africa, the shear should decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and allow steady strengthening to occur. Waters are warm, 28°C, and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of Igor, so the storm should intensity once the shear drops. The models are pretty unanimous about developing Igor into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. Igor will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting the storm several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands a week from now. Climatology shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas, and the odds of Igor hitting land are lower than climatology.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models predict the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 4 - 6 days from now.

Hottest summer in history for 50 million Americans
The U.S. had its fourth warmest summer since record keeping began 116 years ago, according to statistics issued yesterday by the National Climatic Data Center. Only 1936, 2006 and 1934 were hotter. Ten states had their warmest summer on record--Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. Seventeen other states had a top-ten warmest summer, including five states that had their second warmest summer in history (Figure 4.) No states had a top-ten coldest summer. Record daily highs outpaced record daily lows by about 4 to 1 during the summer, with 5,287 daily record highs set, and 1,426 record lows. The summer warmth was a pretty remarkable swing from this past winter, which was the 18th coldest in U.S. history.

Figure 4. State-by-state temperature rankings for the summer of 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, approximately 50 - 60 million Americans experienced their hottest summer ever. No summer in U.S. history has affected so many Americans as "hottest-summer-on-record". The following large cities all posted a record hottest summer:

Washington D.C. National Airport: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1943)
Dulles Airport, VA: 77.8° (old record 76.8° summer of 2007)
Richmond, VA: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Atlantic City, NJ: 77.5° (old record 75.8° summer of 2005)
Philadelphia, PA: 79.6° (old record 78.9° summer of 1995)
New York City (Central Park): 77.8° (old record 77.3° summer of 1966)
Trenton, NJ: 77.7° (old record 76.5° summer of 1898)
Wilmington, DE: 77.8° (old record 77.7° summer of 1900)
Baltimore, MD: 79.2° (old record 79.1° summer of 1943)
Norfolk, VA: 81.1° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Tampa, FL: 84.5° (previous record 84.2° in 1998)
Lakeland, FL: 84.6° (previous record 84.4° in 1987)
St. Petersburg, FL: 85.6° (old record 84.6° in 1987)

Santa Barbara, CA was the only major U.S. city that had its coldest summer on record, though several other California cities were unusually cool. San Diego had its 3rd coolest summer, and the Los Angeles airport had its 2nd coolest summer.

Fortunately, it was a very wet summer, and the record heat did not lead to widespread drought. Summer 2010 ranked as the 16th wettest summer in the 116-year record for the contiguous U.S. Wisconsin had its wettest summer on record, and six other states had a top-ten wettest summer. No state had a top-ten driest summer.

Next post
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX (Richochet)

Tornado (bright area, middle of photo over flooded Trinity River, form during an evening squall from TS Hermine

Hermine is on the way (BBedford)

Wave action on Padre Island,near Bob Hall pier this afternoon. Rain bands are already coming ashore.

Tornado Damage Dallas, TX (Bordonaro)

An EF-2 Tornado (winds 111-115MPH) spawned by TD Hermine 9-8-10@ 6:20PM CDT damages warehouse in Dallas, TX.

Categories: Flood Climate Summaries Hurricane

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652. FloridaHeat 5:57 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting FLdewey: Heck no - just go for it. More cars on the road for EMS to deal with. you are probably right i kind of hope 92l will form so i can chase it Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357

653. xcool 5:57 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

654. angiest 5:57 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Food for thought. Hurricane Gilbert, a well-known example of the etched-in-stone rule that strong hurricanes move north, passed 60.4W (the estimated longitude of 92L) some 2 degrees further north of where 92L is currently, and we all know where he ended up. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4765

655. ClearH2Ostormchaser 5:57 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Hey Tiger. We home school. Do you still have the plans for that hurricane chamber Member Since: June 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 80

656. clwstmchasr 5:57 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting StormW: It's obvious that you have no clue as to pattern changes and recognition! POOF!! You have been POOFING an awful lot of people lately:) Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2755

657. tornadodude 5:57 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting FloridaHeat: has a hurricane ever turned in to one big tornado is that even possible ok im starting to think you shouldnt try chasing anything... Quoting FLdewey: Heck no - just go for it. More cars on the road for EMS to deal with. Ill post some video of the traffic pileup from 5-19 that I took on the North side of OKC Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

658. xcool 5:58 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

659. CaicosRetiredSailor 5:58 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5115

660. ecflweatherfan 5:58 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: ???? It crosses it over many of the Greater Antilles no they aren't if you read carefully, the showers and thunderstorms have changed little; however the overall organization is continuing to improve Just wondering... I read it closely... but I guess that is what you get on a couple hours sleep and no coffee. Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 947

662. KennyNebraska 5:59 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting FLdewey: Don't take Oz humor to be negative. I love the Oz... he's fun to watch during a landfall. Would I be able to sleep in that situation? Who knows, I wasn't there. Being a volunteer firefighter I do find myself in the odd "scary" situation. I've yet to peel of the mask to take a "sip" from the bottle during a structure fire. Why are Oz fans so sensitive? This was Wed evening when he arrived at Hatteras. The storm was still well off-shore. Everyone was yelling at him to get some sleep, but he replied that he was so amped up that he could not. He was not in the storm, he was newly arrived and parked. I think the reason some of us stick up for him is that what has been said negatively about him is for the most part completely overblown or just flat out untrue. It is my opinion that he and the people that work with him are our best source of up to the second information when these systems come ashore. I support them heavily because I do not want them getting discouraged and ending their endeavor. Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 474

663. tiggeriffic 5:59 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
a hurricane CANNOT turn into a tornado...however, a hurricane SPAWNS tornados at an alarming number....u need to do about 10 years of research b4 you chase anything Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

664. FloridaHeat 5:59 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting tiggeriffic: Been thru one of the worst...trust me...you don't want to...i saw things during Hugo that haunt me to this day...and that SUV won't do anything for you...I watched a mobile home get picked up and thrown with a family in it...i saw trees slam thru houses and cars...I saw my mother get picked up and thrown into a wall cuz the door gave way and the door slammed her and broke her arm...you want to see death and destruction...become a prison guard... my understanding from oz is that if you can find a concrete parking garage on the coast then you will be safe from all that and the suv will protect you those things sound awful though when was hugo Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357

665. weathermanwannabe 6:00 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
The best vorticity so far today on the CIMSS charts continues to be the remnants of Hermaine now headed towards TN and West Virginia.......... :) Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6687

666. IKE 6:00 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
24 hour ECMWF....Link Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

667. tiggeriffic 6:00 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting ClearH2Ostormchaser: Hey Tiger. We home school. Do you still have the plans for that hurricane chamber Email me with your mailing information...i will see if i can find it and mail it to you... =) Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

668. StormHype 6:00 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane: He tends to exaggerate quite a bit by blowing things way out of proportion. I guess "The Greater The Risk, The Greater The Glory" w/ that mindset in forecasting the extreme time after time. Wall street loves this guy. Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163

669. FloridaHeat 6:00 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting tornadodude: ok im starting to think you shouldnt try chasing anything... a joke????? Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357

670. NRAamy 6:01 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
SQUAWK!!!!!!! Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

671. angiest 6:02 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting tornadodude: ok im starting to think you shouldnt try chasing anything... Ill post some video of the traffic pileup from 5-19 that I took on the North side of OKC Yeah I was also gonna suggest not trying chasing as well. As for the clogged roads, how many of them were "professional" storm chasers, the ones who drive a thousand miles just to get to a chase that will be several hundred more miles of driving (Reed Timmer et al.) versus local people out joy riding? Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4765

672. Bayoucanetracker 6:02 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
I don't post often...but I'm not pleased with the set up....at all..... Member Since: May 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

673. FloridaHeat 6:02 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting tiggeriffic: a hurricane CANNOT turn into a tornado...however, a hurricane SPAWNS tornados at an alarming number....u need to do about 10 years of research b4 you chase anything dont worry i am from oklahoma originally Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357

674. cirrocumulus 6:02 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Ex-Gaston is still going to affect 92L as 92L is scheduled to move through the area around Jamaica possibly. No model consensus on Igor yet. The odds favor a fish storm, but there is still a 20% chance of landfall besides Bermuda. Bermuda so far has the worse odds and residents need to be cautious. Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

675. tiggeriffic 6:02 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting FloridaHeat: my understanding from oz is that if you can find a concrete parking garage on the coast then you will be safe from all that and the suv will protect you those things sound awful though when was hugo so explain to me then what happened to the people that believed that and the parking garage collapsed WITH THE SUV AND PEOPLE IN IT! Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

676. IKE 6:03 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
48 hour 12Z ECMWF....Link Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

677. wayfaringstranger 6:04 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting IKE: This blog has become a source of either defending someone or some organization or opposing it. The one-liners keep getting thrown back and forth. POOF! Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235

678. FloridaHeat 6:04 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting tiggeriffic: so explain to me then what happened to the people that believed that and the parking garage collapsed WITH THE SUV AND PEOPLE IN IT! no way where did that happen did they live Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357

681. wayfaringstranger 6:05 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting IKE: 48 hour 12Z ECMWF....Link DOUBLE POOF Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235

682. IKE 6:05 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting wayfaringstranger: POOF! Good...I've been wanting to poof you for a long time too. Bye. 108 and counting. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

683. Ztapedoc 6:05 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
What's up with this "disturbance" (92L) near Trinidad? ? ? Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 22

684. muddertracker 6:05 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Poof-fest. Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2119

685. tiggeriffic 6:05 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Wow...this is not the blog i came to see today... think i will bbl... Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

686. tornadodude 6:06 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting angiest: Yeah I was also gonna suggest not trying chasing as well. As for the clogged roads, how many of them were "professional" storm chasers, the ones who drive a thousand miles just to get to a chase that will be several hundred more miles of driving (Reed Timmer et al.) versus local people out joy riding? I dont consider myself a professional, but I did drive 4600 miles in 5 days, from Indiana, to get to that chase and the day before. I do however consider myself a very knowledgeable chaser and also have good instincts with severe storms as well. Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

688. Vero1 6:06 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

689. FloridaHeat 6:06 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting wayfaringstranger: DOUBLE POOF uncall for ike did nothing wrong Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357

690. JustSouthofEquator 6:06 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting JustSouthofEquator: Hello there, long time lurker out and about. I have a question for any of the regular poster. Does anyone know what was the precursor of Invest 92L? I know that most of the disturbance in the Atlantic basin originates from the African Easterly Waves, but it seems that the vortex that spun into 92L drifted from South America? Thanks in advance :) Sorry for reposting this, am I on ignore? Member Since: June 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 185

692. hcubed 6:07 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting hunkerdown: they are all named "L" on this map :P Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish: So what does that tell you? That all "L" is about to break loose? Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 286 Comments: 1639

693. muddertracker 6:07 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: Especially women. Nothing replaces field experience :) Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2119

694. FloridaHeat 6:08 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting IKE: Good...I've been wanting to poof you for a long time too. Bye. 108 and counting. he didnt actually poof you because if he did he could not have done a double poof also Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357

695. angiest 6:08 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting tornadodude: I dont consider myself a professional, but I did drive 4600 miles in 5 days, from Indiana, to get to that chase and the day before. I do however consider myself a very knowledgeable chaser and also have good instincts with severe storms as well. My point being that I'm sure a lot of those people were locals (OK) who were out because it was something in their backyard. I put professional in quotes because not all storm chasers make their primary living doing it, but if you routinely make that kind of drive you might qualify in that definition of "professional." Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4765

696. wayfaringstranger 6:08 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting FloridaHeat: uncall for ike did nothing wrong Chill heat. I got nothing but love for the guy. Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235

697. angiest 6:08 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting JustSouthofEquator: Sorry for reposting this, am I on ignore? I've wondered the same but I have no idea. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4765

698. Sfloridacat5 6:09 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
92L Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026

699. belizewunderfan 6:09 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting xcool: Holy Moley - this is one for me and KanKunKid to watch closely! Member Since: June 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 83

700. cocoabeachcane 6:09 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting tiggeriffic: so explain to me then what happened to the people that believed that and the parking garage collapsed WITH THE SUV AND PEOPLE IN IT! You have a link to a news story on that happening in the US in the last 25 years? Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 19

701. angiest 6:09 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting hcubed: Quoting hunkerdown: they are all named "L" on this map :P Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish: So what does that tell you? That all "L" is about to break loose? I was thinking along the lines of "Here's your sign..." Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4765

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