Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting DestinJeff:
WARNING:

Blog drifting into GW banter. Save the Women and Children first!

Captain Jeff...There's only enough lifeboats for half the bloggers!

Quoting IKE:


Teh warming of the planet....global warming.

Oh. The hoax. Got it.

Mnborn like 92l I think something is going give.Storm on the water, fire in the sky.

The 12Z runs should be real interesting to follow...with 92L....

From the previous blog:

Definitions from the NHC's glossary - some interesting reading:

Direct Hit:
A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind. Compare indirect hit, strike.

Indirect Hit:
Generally refers to locations that do not experience a direct hit from a tropical cyclone, but do experience hurricane force winds (either sustained or gusts) or tides of at least 4 feet above normal.

Landfall:
The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water. Compare direct hit, indirect hit, and strike.

Strike:
For any particular location, a hurricane strike occurs if that location passes within the hurricane's strike circle, a circle of 125 n mi diameter, centered 12.5 n mi to the right of the hurricane center (looking in the direction of motion). This circle is meant to depict the typical extent of hurricane force winds, which are approximately 75 n mi to the right of the center and 50 n mi to the left.

Where is Jim Cantore ?

Quoting IKE:

Well you're just full of good news!

Quoting Dixiegirl:


Thank you. I vividly remember the fear mongers screaming "WE ARE HAVING AN ICE AGE!!!!!" back in the 70s.

Hi Dixie.
Yep. Same thing.

Quoting FloridaHeat:


i have read that global warming also causes cold winters and snow so you must take that into account and you keep ignoring a tenth of a degree and over time that adds up and before you know it humans are extinct we have covered that a lot in one of my global warming classes

So global warming causes cold winters? Interesting....

Updated :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Looks like the merger is done.

Quoting oracle28:


So global warming causes cold winters? Interesting....

Take it easy on him. He just flushed his fish down the toilet.

Is there time for the cat5 huricane to make it to Gainsville to put out the Koran bonfire, just after the Pastor mentioned Global Warming ?

Quoting DestinJeff:


She looks fairly moist.

Ex-Gaston, you little Devil.

Here I was, enjoying a Gaston free morning, but nooooo! DJeff has to go get the Gastonaphiles riled up!

It will be a wait and see with 92L and future model runs will vary depending on how "fast" the system is able to develop into a TD/Storm IMHO. The faster that happens, the more likely the models will start shifing to the NW towards the Greater Antilles and the like; if it is a slow burner, then a potential track towards the Yucatan, or, Yucatan Channel into the Gulf is also possible.............Too much uncertainty at the moment to speculate as to what may happen but we should have a better picture in about 72 hours.

Anyone called 92L a fish yet? Annular? Trying to figure out how its going to hit Miami and New Orleans from there? ;-)

Quoting IKE:
The 12Z runs should be real interesting to follow...with 92L....

yeah, where 92L is, there's no shot of fish. It will affect somebody somewhere. We probably gotta root for a track that keeps to the south. Or hope that 92L got organizational advice from Gaston.

Before I checked the nhc site, I said to myself, code orange! I did not expect to be right. I wonder if this is the storm that one model turned into a big storm and took it towards tx/la last night.

Quoting bird72:


That same trof can make 92l go north?

I'am not stormw but if you don't mind i can throw out my 2cents...

One of the more consistent things in modeling the past few days has been the rebuilding of ridging in TX/western Gulf in the wake of TS Hermine. H5 should approach 594 dam, just as we see a rising tendency in the EPO owing to the negative AAM tendency that is occurring presently. Additionally, models indicate the -AO wave bottom circa the 18th as well. This setup, to me, suggests that the ridging in TX is unlikely to shift westward and more pac jet energy comes into the west coast circa day 18th. With high pressures over the pole, I would expect the ridge in Texas to be shunted into the south, not likely to see the H5 anomaly migrate north. All these factors to me suggest that the ridge in TX/Gulf will likely be stout and not shift around enough to allow the Carib wave (92L) to come westward into the the yucantan/mexico.

As far as intensity goes this thing can really take pretty quickly as the low level winds look great and that combined with the extreme heat content down there may result in a power cyclone in the coming days.

Here a look at the 12z intensity plots.

Morning All.

Surprised there has been no Ernesto comparison

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Take it easy on him. He just flushed his fish down the toilet.

rip sir reginald poopums iii

Quoting DestinJeff:


and the band played on.

[the Firewall reaks havoc on comedic timing, btw]

If the blog goes GW today...I am catching the first boat.

cmc takes 92l n to the bahamas at 144 ngp close to the same this will be the one for fla to watch for

Quoting FloridaHeat:


rip sir reginald poopums iii

I am so very sorry to hear about your fish. Please let me know if there is anything I can do in this time of need...

Julia is going to fry up some coastline du jour. Expect some inland broiling a-la-flood.

She's going to be a very organized cook. If she comes your way, get out of her kitchen!

Quoting DestinJeff:


and the band played on.

[the Firewall reaks havoc on comedic timing, btw]

Not sure timing is the main problem. :^)

Quoting Orcasystems:


If the blog goes GW today...I am catching the first boat.

Save me a seat too!

Quoting oracle28:


So global warming causes cold winters? Interesting....

I think it causes hair loss and bad breath too.

Quoting MahFL:
Where is Jim Cantore ?

Hiding behind JFV's shower curtain

Quoting oracle28:


So global warming causes cold winters? Interesting....

yes i saw it on the news and that is also what my teacher says

Das blog is kaput!

Igor may do a Earl and cause havoc to the EC again. I don't buy that Igor is going to recurve out to sea. I was hoping Storm W. had a report today. Curious to see what his take is on Igor.

Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Hiding behind JFV's shower curtain

LOL

Let's all toast the future Julia before she toasts a coast!

Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Hiding behind JFV's shower curtain

bahahahahhaha!

First GW post of my time here. Not pushing for either side. Just making an observation with some related questions.

I'm interested in the fact that you have 2 of the top 4 hottest summers in 2006 and 2010, and the other 2 are 1934 and 1936. And directly in the middle of these 2 time periods you have the late 70's when there was the global cooling scare.

Is this evidence of a cycle? What were the atmospheric conditions in the mid-30's/late-70's? How does the solar activity of these 2 time periods compare to now?

Thanks.

Quoting DestinJeff:


There would have to be second storm for that to happen.

No way one storm could pull that off. These storms aren't magic, you know.

Yeah...but you throw a second storm in there and we automatically get a FujiFilms effect. ;-) Next thing you know, Barney's Bowl-O-Rama is on top of Forbidding Widow's Peak!

Quoting muddertracker:

bahahahahhaha!

As you can tell, I'm no Cantore!

Quoting BenInHouTX:
First GW post of my time here. Not pushing for either side. Just making an observation with some related questions.

I'm interested in the fact that you have 2 of the top 4 hottest summers in 2006 and 2010, and the other 2 are 1934 and 1936. And directly in the middle of these 2 time periods you have the late 70's when there was the global cooling scare.

Is this evidence of a cycle? What were the atmospheric conditions in the mid-30's/late-70's? How does the solar activity of these 2 time periods compare to now?

Thanks.

the ice age was likely caused by global warming