Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Flooding, tornadoes for TX, OK; dangerous 92L forms; 4th hottest summer for U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2010

Dangerous flash flooding is occurring in Eastern Oklahoma this morning, where rainfall rates as heavy as three inches per hour from the remains of Tropical Storm Hermine are occurring. A large area of Eastern Oklahoma received 3 - 6 inches of rain last night and this morning, with radar-estimated rainfall amounts as high as fifteen inches (Figure 2.) Yesterday, Hermine killed two people in Texas, who were attempting to cross flood waters in their vehicles. Hermine dropped 6 - 8 inches of rain in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, creating moderate to major flooding along the Trinity River in Dallas. Two tornadoes touched down near Dallas, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged a total of eight tornado reports in Oklahoma and Texas from Hermine. The latest rainfall totals from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center show 15.62" fell in Georgetown, Texas, with fifteen locations in Texas receiving over ten inches of rain. Big city rainfall totals included 7.57" at Austin, 6.73" at San Antonio, 6.52" at Dallas, and 7.20" at Fort Worth.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas area from Hermine shows a large area of 6+ inches of rain, with maximum amounts of ten inches.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for eastern Oklahoma, where up to fifteen inches of rain fell last night and this morning.

Potentially dangerous Lesser Antilles tropical disturbance 92L forms
A tropical disturbance (92L) has developed over the extreme southeastern Caribbean just north of the coast of South America, over the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. Surface observations indicate that pressures have been slowly falling at a number of stations, and satellite loops show a modest region of heavy thunderstorm activity is building. A strong flow of upper level easterly winds is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and the waters are plenty warm for development. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies over the northern Caribbean, but this dry air should not interfere with development over the next two days.

The disturbance is slowly drifting westward, but steering currents favor a more northwest motion Friday and Saturday. Lower shear lies over the Central Caribbean, away from the coast of South America, so any northward component of motion will allow for more significant development. There is drier air to the north, but 92L is steadily moistening the atmosphere in the Caribbean, so dry air may not be a problem for it. There is substantial model support for development. The disturbance is in a dangerous location for development, and gives me the greatest concern of any Atlantic disturbance so far this year. The models predict that by Saturday, 92L will bring heavy rains to Puerto Rico. These rains will then spread to the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba on Monday. The longer range track of 92L is uncertain, and will strongly depend on where the storm drifts during the next two days. The ECMWF and GFS models predict a more southerly path through the Western Caribbean towards Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and the NOGAPS and Canadian models predict a more northerly path along the length of Cuba towards Florida. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. Stay tuned.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous disturbance in the Southeast Caribbean.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is barely hanging on in the face of 20 - 25 knots of winds shear, courtesy of strong upper-level winds out of the east. The shear has exposed Igor's low level circulation to view, and the storm has just one small spot of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Once Igor gets another 200 miles away from Africa, the shear should decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and allow steady strengthening to occur. Waters are warm, 28°C, and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of Igor, so the storm should intensity once the shear drops. The models are pretty unanimous about developing Igor into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. Igor will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting the storm several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands a week from now. Climatology shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas, and the odds of Igor hitting land are lower than climatology.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models predict the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 4 - 6 days from now.

Hottest summer in history for 50 million Americans
The U.S. had its fourth warmest summer since record keeping began 116 years ago, according to statistics issued yesterday by the National Climatic Data Center. Only 1936, 2006 and 1934 were hotter. Ten states had their warmest summer on record--Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. Seventeen other states had a top-ten warmest summer, including five states that had their second warmest summer in history (Figure 4.) No states had a top-ten coldest summer. Record daily highs outpaced record daily lows by about 4 to 1 during the summer, with 5,287 daily record highs set, and 1,426 record lows. The summer warmth was a pretty remarkable swing from this past winter, which was the 18th coldest in U.S. history.

Figure 4. State-by-state temperature rankings for the summer of 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, approximately 50 - 60 million Americans experienced their hottest summer ever. No summer in U.S. history has affected so many Americans as "hottest-summer-on-record". The following large cities all posted a record hottest summer:

Washington D.C. National Airport: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1943)
Dulles Airport, VA: 77.8° (old record 76.8° summer of 2007)
Richmond, VA: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Atlantic City, NJ: 77.5° (old record 75.8° summer of 2005)
Philadelphia, PA: 79.6° (old record 78.9° summer of 1995)
New York City (Central Park): 77.8° (old record 77.3° summer of 1966)
Trenton, NJ: 77.7° (old record 76.5° summer of 1898)
Wilmington, DE: 77.8° (old record 77.7° summer of 1900)
Baltimore, MD: 79.2° (old record 79.1° summer of 1943)
Norfolk, VA: 81.1° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Tampa, FL: 84.5° (previous record 84.2° in 1998)
Lakeland, FL: 84.6° (previous record 84.4° in 1987)
St. Petersburg, FL: 85.6° (old record 84.6° in 1987)

Santa Barbara, CA was the only major U.S. city that had its coldest summer on record, though several other California cities were unusually cool. San Diego had its 3rd coolest summer, and the Los Angeles airport had its 2nd coolest summer.

Fortunately, it was a very wet summer, and the record heat did not lead to widespread drought. Summer 2010 ranked as the 16th wettest summer in the 116-year record for the contiguous U.S. Wisconsin had its wettest summer on record, and six other states had a top-ten wettest summer. No state had a top-ten driest summer.

Next post
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX (Richochet)

Tornado (bright area, middle of photo over flooded Trinity River, form during an evening squall from TS Hermine

Hermine is on the way (BBedford)

Wave action on Padre Island,near Bob Hall pier this afternoon. Rain bands are already coming ashore.

Tornado Damage Dallas, TX (Bordonaro)

An EF-2 Tornado (winds 111-115MPH) spawned by TD Hermine 9-8-10@ 6:20PM CDT damages warehouse in Dallas, TX.

Categories: Flood Climate Summaries Hurricane

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1701. JRRP 11:48 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4304

1702. Orcasystems 11:48 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting StormW: P O O F! I wasn't even aware that fool was still around till you guys quoted him :( Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

1703. JupiterFL 11:48 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting Jedkins01: who are you calling computer Nerd? I'm just a redneck that has always had a love for meteorology, I really care less about computers Jedkins, This was a tongue in cheek comment and not directed at you at all. Simply commenting on those that were all over IKE for simply posting models. Remember that I am here as well and could be included in this grouping! Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146

1704. markot 11:49 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
storm, is gfs showing igor more south and west down the road.... Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 226

1705. TheDawnAwakening 11:50 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Record season, 12z EURO shows Igor as a cateogry five hurricane. It is an option for him. Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 215 Comments: 3159

1706. TheDawnAwakening 11:50 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Record season, 12z EURO shows Igor as a cateogry five hurricane. It is an option for him. Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 215 Comments: 3159

1708. RufusBaker 11:51 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting TheDawnAwakening: Record season, 12z EURO shows Igor as a cateogry five hurricane. It is an option for him. BASED ON SAT HE IS GETTING THERE QUICK TOO..... Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 510

1709. hydrus 11:52 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
1948 (and the 1940,s in general) had many landfalling storms, especially in Florida...Check this out...................................................................... # July 9, 1948 %u2013 The second storm of the season hits near Destin. Some low-lying areas are flooded from heavy rainfall, but damage is minor.[67][68] # September 4, 1948 %u2013 A hurricane moves ashore along southern Louisiana, with its high tides extending eastward and reaching 3.4 feet at Pensacola. Damage is minor along the Florida Panhandle.[68] # September 21, 1948 %u2013 The Florida Keys are struck by a hurricane which produces wind gusts of over 122 mph (197 km/h). It drops moderate to heavy rainfall across the southern portion of the state, peaking at 11 inches (280 mm) in Miami, and causes considerable flooding. Across the state, the hurricane severely damages 1,161 homes and destroys 39 others, with damage totaling $12 million (1948 USD, $107 million 2008 USD). Three people are killed, with another 45 hospitalized.[68] # October 5, 1948 %u2013 The fifth hurricane of the season hits the Florida Keys and brushes the southern portion of the state with winds of over 100 mph (160 km/h). The storm spawns 3 tornadoes, one of which destroys 25 houses in Pompano Beach. 678 homes are destroyed or severely damaged, and damage across the state totals $5.5 million (1948 USD, $49 million 2008 USD). The hurricane injures 42, though no deaths are reported in the state.[68]........Four nasty storms that season..And they were nailed twice in 47, and had a cat-4 in 45... Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14252

1712. fldude99 11:53 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
What's with this 92L? Is it getting into the GOM as a hurricane? Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 560

1714. Orcasystems 11:54 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Complete update... models are still confuzzled. AOI AOI AOI AOI AOI TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

1717. RufusBaker 11:55 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
YES GFS SHOWING MORE OF A WEST TRACK Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 510

1718. nash28 11:56 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Boy... The GFS is absolutely in LOVE with the deep troughing. Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

1719. stoormfury 11:56 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
it would appear that a new centre is trying to form in 92l near 11N 57W Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2303

1722. nash28 11:58 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Howdy StormW. Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

1723. WeatherNerdPR 11:59 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting nash28: Why is it when I visit this blog I always seem to come on when the kids are leaving their droppings all over the room? Good lord... lol Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

1724. Levi32 12:02 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
18z GFS is even colder now on Day 16, showing sub-freezing temperatures covering the vast majority of the Alaskan mainland as the major trough digs into the area. It is remarkable to see such a pattern depicted nearly the same for so many model runs in a row in the long-range. For those who don't care about Alaska :P you can look at the heigher than normal heights across southern Canada, text-book for tropical activity in the SW Atlantic Basin. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

1725. robj144 12:03 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting PsychicMaria: Forecasters, do not forecast Igor no more. I have finalized my prediction for Igor. FLORIDA - BEING MAKING PREPARATIONS NOW, landfall will be on or about September 18, 2010 at 11:00PM EDT. Will do... :) Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 814

1726. hydrus 12:03 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting Levi32: 18z GFS is even colder now on Day 16, showing sub-freezing temperatures covering the vast majority of the Alaskan mainland as the major trough digs into the area. It is remarkable to see such a pattern depicted nearly the same for so many model runs in a row in the long-range. Big low in the Gulf. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14252

1727. tropics21 12:04 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: Can I know my lotto tickets too? You wouldn't have a winning ticket with the numbers she gave you lol Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 263

1728. Greyelf 12:04 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting maeko: English. Do you speak it? See post #1652. Really. It was written just for you. Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838

1731. Levi32 12:06 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting StormW: MJO Octants 1 & 2 Indeed. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

1732. robj144 12:07 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting PsychicMaria: Forecasters, do not forecast Igor no more. I have finalized my prediction for Igor. FLORIDA - BEING MAKING PREPARATIONS NOW, landfall will be on or about September 18, 2010 at 11:00PM EDT. Didn't you also say that Texas wouldn't be hit with anything for the next month or whatever a couple of weeks ago too? Something about Florida being hit too a couple of weeks ago... Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 814

1733. robj144 12:08 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting tropics21: You wouldn't have a winning ticket with the numbers she gave you lol We asked her this before...she's "not that kind of psychic"... whatever that means. :) Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 814

1734. Seastep 12:08 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Levi - with all your cold talk, you're in trouble. If you recall, I lived in Anchorage for 4 years. Winters were pretty mild there, relatively speaking because of the ocean. Fairbanks is a whole different ballgame, LOL. I imagine they still have the plugs at the parking spots to plug your car in so the battery doesn't go dead while you are inside? Or has technology advanced on that front and I am showing my age. Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

1735. wunderkidcayman 12:09 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
well is ya all just look at this "dead" ex-gaston is starting to look more like a blob not a dead ex-blob/es-storm and 92L is starting to look more like a blob not a monsoon trough all in all shaping up nicely Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5406

1736. Grothar 12:09 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: What hump? I thought the hump was on the right side? Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19515

1737. stormhank 12:09 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Evening! Is 92L still expected to develop? I see SHIPS brings it up to 100 mph out 5 days??? Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1375

1738. hydrus 12:09 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
The following major hurricanes either made landfall on the state or brought winds of Category 3 status to the state. Storms are listed since 1851, which is the official start of the Atlantic hurricane database.[4][8] Originally, hurricanes were classified by central pressure in the 20th century;[8][9] however, modern practices quantify storm intensities by maximum sustained winds.[10] United States hurricanes are still classified by central pressure from 1921%u20131979;[8][9] therefore, the maximum sustained winds in the Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT) are utilized for storms from 1921%u20131979,[4] since this period has not been reanalyzed by the Atlantic hurricane reanalysis project.[11] Storm%u2193 Saffir-Simpson Category%u2193 Date of landfall%u2193 Year%u2193 Landfall Intensity (in knots)%u2193 Landfall Location%u2193 Great Middle Florida 3 August 23 1851 100 Panama City Unnamed 3 August 17 1871 100 Jupiter Island Unnamed 3 October 7 1873 100 Captiva Island Unnamed 3 October 3 1877 100 Panama City Unnamed 3 September 10 1882 100 Navarre Unnamed 3 August 16 1888 110 Miami Beach Unnamed 3 October 9 1894 105 Panama City Unnamed 3 September 10 1896 110 Cedar Key Unnamed 3 October 18 1906 105 Marathon Everglades National Park Unnamed 3 October 11 1909 100 Marathon Unnamed 3 September 29 1917 100 Okaloosa County Unnamed 4 September 10 1919 130 Offshore Florida Keys Great Miami 4 August 18 1926 115 South Miami Okeechobee 4 September 17 1928 130[4] Jupiter Island Unnamed 3 September 4 1933 110 Jupiter Labor Day 5 September 3 1935 160 Craig Key Unnamed 3 October 6 1941 105 Goulds Unnamed 4 September 15 1945 120 Upper Florida Keys Unnamed 4 September 17 1947 135 Pompano Beach, Florida Unnamed 3 September 21 1948 105 Lower Florida Keys Everglades National Park Unnamed 3 October 5 1948 110[4] Marathon Everglades National Park Unnamed 4 August 26 1949 130 Palm Beach Shores Easy 3 September 5 1950 105[4] Cedar Key King 3 October 18 1950 105[4] Miami Donna 4 September 10 1960 120 Key Vaca Naples Betsy 3 September 8 1965 110[4] Upper Florida Keys Eloise 3 September 23 1975 110 Bay County Elena 3 September 2 1985 100 Gulfport, Mississippi Andrew 5 August 24 1992 145 Homestead Opal 3 October 4 1995 100 Pensacola Beach Charley 4 August 13 2004 130 Cayo Costa Punta Gorda Ivan 3 September 16 2004 105 Gulf Shores, Alabama Jeanne 3 September 26 2004 105 Hutchinson Island Dennis 3 July 10 2005 105 Santa Rosa Island Wilma 3 October 24 2005 105 Cape Romano Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14252

1739. Barkeep1967 12:09 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting CosmicEvents: Thank you for stating the obvious to me too. I thought the same thing when I saw the name. At least they have never named one Chuck Norris Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 193

1740. Skyepony (Mod) 12:10 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Indeed. It's all starting to fall into place.. Dang~ The damage pic up there..under the heavy table would have been some okay refuge.. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29283

1741. xcool 12:10 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
now noo model support on 92L WT BEEP BEEP Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1743. jonandrew 12:10 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting yoda5150: Once again, I'm going to offer an opinion here that is more than likely unwarranted, unwanted and maybe even unwelcome, but that's never stopped me before...so here goes. I've been coming to this site for quite a few years now for one thing and one thing alone....tropical information. And the coolest thing about that is, I've actually learned a few things. Sadly, this year seems to be a little bit different in that there seems to be a lot more bickering over inane things than I remember. Very sad. Secondly, IMHO calling out someone over posting facts (eventhough they are computer models and are subject to change, but they are fact at the time) is damn near criminal. To those guily parties, I have but one word of advice.......leave, and do it now. My suspicion is that most of said parties don't even live in a hurricane prone area (like I do) and are just here to cause trouble. Find a new hobby. It's always caster this or caster that. I say it's BS. To me, science (and I consider understanding the tropics a science) has no room for some of the crap I see here. Again, JMO. I, for one, appreciate all the information that I glean from people like IKE, Storm, Drak and others. My hat's off to them and would buy them a beer for the services they have rendered to me (albeit they didn't know it was for me LOL). OK, I've vented enough...back to the weather. It's 85.4 here in Fairhope, AL, there's a beer with my name on it and a porch I can drink it on. So I'm going to do just that. In closing, I will say three final things: 1) Kudos to the information providers (you help more than you will ever know) 2) To the admins, drop the hammer on these wastes of time and space and 3) Offer help when and where help is needed during this (and others) tropical seasons. Have a good night all. And, just for good mojo.....Who Dat? Bye. Bravo !!! Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 32

1744. ConchHondros 12:11 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting 954FtLCane: -50 on this post, people are allowed to disagree. You'll never see me disagree or criticize Storm w's posting (and agreed there are a few others) because he examines everything closely and comes to his own conclusions but don't expect me to agree with certain folks that just throw up models and say this is a fish storm without any backup... puh-leeze. Just because you are scared of storms or love them (down or up-caster. By the way the holier than though junk ain't working. And finally, it's time for the ain't to go back where they belong. Bags on heads and 1-15. You got your ring now scatta-moosh. FYI when dressing down...fact up..."scatta-moosh" It is "Scaramouche,scaramouche will you do the fandango" from Bohemian Rhapsody Scaramouch means skirmish in english. so you told him to skirmish...does that mean you want to take it out back? Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 551

1745. atmoaggie 12:11 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: I'd have to agree. The models still have a long ways to go and the errors are very much evident. While I highly value the numerical computer forecast models, there's still a lot that needs to be done to improve the forecast even within the 5 day period. One of the things I hoping to do with my degree(s) in the future is to help improve the models. Best of luck. Until we have a real profile of the atmosphere over the oceans, with decent spatial coverage and no worse than 12 hour intervals and the vertical resolution of temps, Td, and winds that we get from the radiosondes at airports, tropical modeling will remain a SWAG beyond a few days out. Sure, research campaigns will help with the physics some, but without better obs, fuggedaboudit getting a lot better than it is now. Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

1746. Grothar 12:11 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting robj144: Didn't you also say that Texas wouldn't be hit with anything for the next month or whatever a couple of weeks ago too? Something about Florida being hit too a couple of weeks ago... I "knew" you were going to ask that. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19515

1747. Levi32 12:11 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting Seastep: Levi - with all your cold talk, you're in trouble. If you recall, I lived in Anchorage for 4 years. Winters were pretty mild there, relatively speaking because of the ocean. Fairbanks is a whole different ballgame, LOL. I imagine they still have the plugs at the parking spots to plug your car in so the battery doesn't go dead while you are inside? Or has technology advanced on that front and I am showing my age. Oh I know lol. I get to experience something below -20 for the first time. Yes I believe they still have the plugs on the parking things. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

1748. maeko 12:12 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting Greyelf: See post #1652. Really. It was written just for you. Sorry, I don't follow. Please elaborate. Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 82

1749. Xyrus2000 12:13 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting Grothar: I thought the hump was on the right side? Our season this year will be Abby Someone....Abby Normal. :) Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016

1750. hydrus 12:14 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14252

1751. Grothar 12:14 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Image of Tropical Depression Igor. RITOL Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19515

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