Igor an impressive Cat 4; 92L running out of time to develop; Julia forms
There are few sights in the natural world more impressive than a hurricane near maximum intensity. Hurricane Igor certainly fits that description this morning, as it flirts with Category 5 strength in the Central Atlantic. Igor's rapid intensification burst brought the mighty hurricane's winds to 150 mph, just shy of the 156 mph threshold for Category 5 status. Igor is the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic in three years. The last hurricane stronger that Igor was Category 5 Hurricane Felix of 2007.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Igor.
Intensity forecast for Igor
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low for the next four days. Waters are warm, 28.5°C, and will warm to 29°C by Wednesday. Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. These conditions should allow Igor to remain at major hurricane status for the next four days. The hurricane will probably undergo one of the usual eyewall replacement cycles intense hurricanes commonly have, where the eyewall collapses and a new eyewall forms from an outer spiral band. This will weaken the hurricane by 10 - 20 mph when it occurs, but Igor will probably regain its lost intensity when the cycle completes. There's no evidence that an eyewall replacement cycle is imminent today, so Igor could potentially strengthen a bit more. However, I believe Igor has peaked, and will not reach Category 5 status today. By Saturday, when Igor should be nearing Bermuda, the trough of low pressure steering Igor northwestwards should bring moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the storm, weakening it.
Track forecast for Igor
The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor will move west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure until Tuesday morning, then turn more to the west-northwest then northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor appears likely to be a threat to Bermuda, and that island can expect tropical storm force winds as early as Friday. Igor does have a small chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 15% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the period 5 - 10 days from now from the ECMWF and GFS models shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without hitting the U.S. or Canada. While the trough expected to recurve Igor out to sea is not as sharp as the troughs that recurved Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, it should still be strong enough to keep Igor from hitting the U.S. However, Newfoundland, Canada could see a close pass. An examination of the tracks of the ten major September hurricanes that have passed closest to Igor's current location (Figure 2) reveals that one of these hurricanes went on to hit the Bahamas and Florida as a Category 2 storm, and another hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 storm. The other eight missed land. One wild card may be the intensification of Julia behind Igor. If Julia develops into a hurricane and moves close to Igor, as some of the models are suggesting, the two hurricanes could interact, affecting the track of Igor unpredictable ways. However, it currently appears the Julia will be much weaker than Igor, and will probably have little impact on her big brother's track.
Figure 2. Historical plot of the tracks of the ten major September hurricanes that have passed closest to Igor's current location.
Caribbean disturbance 92L
Tropical disturbance (92L) over the Central Caribbean, centered about 100 miles south of Jamaica, has changed little over the past day. The storm remains a threat to develop into a tropical depression, but time is running out for it to do so. Satellite loops this morning do not show a surface circulation, but 92L does have a moderate area of intense disorganized thunderstorms that are bringing heavy rain to Jamaica this morning. Kingston, Jamaica has picked up 0.67" of rain thus far this morning from 92L.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of 92L.
Forecast for 92L
Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate for the next five days. The waters beneath are hot, 29.8°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air has been interfering with development of 92L. NHC is putting the odds of 92L developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday at 40%. Given the current disorganized state of 92L, it would be difficult for it to intensify quickly enough to become any stronger than a tropical storm with 50 mph winds by Wednesday, when it will move over Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Once 92L crosses the Yucatan, the ridge of high pressure steering it is expected to remain in place, forcing 92L to a second landfall in Mexico several hundred miles south of the Texas border. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 92L this afternoon.
Julia
Tropical Storm Julia formed between the Cape Verdes Islands and coast of Africa yesterday, bringing some heavy rain squalls and gusty winds to the Cape Verdes, but no sustained winds of tropical storm force. Julia is headed northwest, out to sea, and it is unlikely that this storm will trouble any land areas . Shear is low enough over the next few days to allow Julia to become a hurricane, but shear will rise sharply 4 - 5 days from now, limiting the potential for Julia to become a major hurricane.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is calling for a new tropical depression to form off the coast of Africa 6 - 7 days from now.
Next post
I'll have a new post Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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OMG watching your post is freaky.
You have forget EARL and IGOR
Ooh, one I know! "Bay of Campeche". (And if you're really a newbie, that's the bay in the southern Gulf of Mexico.)
Yep, freaky especially if you live in Bermuda. I am getting concerned for folks in Bermuda, this could be a major event if it follows down the center of the most recent projected paths issued today.
The story on Earl was very similar. I can't be TOO hard on the NHC--5-day forecasts aren't supposed to be super-accurate--but you can drive yourself crazy waiting for that NW turn to happen, can't you?
West Outflow
seet dreams and hopefully wake up after the turn tomorrow morning, jejejejejejejeejej
2010 Season isn't through yet so nothing will be listed until then, thanks for the reminder anyway.
It looks pretty yucky for them. I understand a pass to the east would be better than a pass to the west.
no he didnt, that is a list of CAT 5 hurricanes
No Offense to anyone, but some will never completely understand the devastation these beauties of nature(cuz yes they are beautiful from afar)can bring until they experience it themselves!
Bermuda had better just settle for a "pass" at all at this point.
Miami or Lisbon...now THAT'S funny. That's even wider than his Danielle2.jpg cone which was 1680 miles wide at one point.
I've gotta be too old. Still, BOC: FIRST thought is Blue Oyster Cult, Bay of Campeche is second.
we are watching closely!!
Yes the last few frames looked like approaching 18N, but he's done that before.
Your right,June-July-Quiet! 3 storms plus a huge cat-2,Pretty active in my opinion.
To be honest, I don't know. It's rather worrysome that that long pronounced ridge is there and since Igor is so strong, he might still be pumping it, and adding to it's strength. We'll see in about 12 hours or so. My gut feeling is that he'll continue to head west for a good while.
Hey man, I am from PR and I really have nothing to say. Just waiting for the turn and if not... I will call Houston to tell them that we have a huge problem. Take Care and cross your fingers for us.
Thanx
He was thinking in terms of millibars, which quite frankly to me personally just don't add up with windspeed, so I understand completely or Alex Alex this year would have been a cat3-4
Houston here. Thinking we may wind up getting the call. ;)
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html
Thats the home page of the CIMSS steering maps, updated every 3 hours (for reference, UTC time is four hours ahead of EDT). In the left column, it tells you which steering layer to use. So like with Igor, which has a min. pressure of 933 mb, the column tells you to use the 200-700 mb steering layer map for a tropical cyclone of MSLP(min. sea level pressure) of <940 mb.
But you know what? if you look carefully at all the steering layers, I still see the same general thing after all in all images, just like I said earlier when I keep seeing all layer maps showing the similar thing.
Just look, okay with the 700-850 mb map here:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html
I see a ridge just south of Bermuda. Look carefully now, there is west to east flow just south of Bermuda, and then just north of the Caribbean, there is east to west flow. Ta-da, there is antiyclonicity (clockwise flow) indicating ridging there.
The ridge just gets better defined the deeper-layered you get, for example this 200-700 mb map:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html
You can see the ridge south of Bermuda much better, centered just north of Hispaniola. So, I still see the same generic steering patterns in all CIMSS layers, but more or less defined when it comes to details.
So what does this weak ridge mean, which is located south of Bermuda and just NW of Igor? Well, I think it'll lead to only a gradual turn of Igor to the NW, it will not let Igor continue west as the big trough in the western Atlantic should kill that ridge and finally bend Igor more NW anyway.
every single storm on that list was considered a CAT 5
what did she find so far did she find RIBS and BEAR
Cycloone, very nice graphic and the overlay of predicted center, right (east) and left (west) track limits is really easy to see. Please keep updating it and if possible leave the predicted track overlay so we can compare predicted vs reality to see how good the models are actually performing.
Sierra-Hotel!
Do you really think that this storm could cause us problems? They have a tendency to be aiming for us then veer off at the last minute. Except for a few that have hit like Fabian did in 2003.
I really do hope that call isn't necessary. :)
I think there are a whole bunch of lurkers from the northern islands just watching and waiting for that moment when we all have to scramble to prepare - or preferably, stand down. I'm still cleaning up from Earl so don't really relish another close call either.
He's fixated 'cause its in his backyard and he's been hit several times this year.
Hello, good to sse someone else from the BVI, are you in Tortola?
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