A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.
Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.
Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..
Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.
Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
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Now we do have some of the smartest, funniest, and even a few well behaved people here! Sadly, I do not fall in to any of those categories ;)
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And a twofer:
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Okay, what about this then?
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
...NATE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 08 2005
...MARIA STILL A HURRICANE...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 590 MILES...
950 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 1070
MILES...1720 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
...OPHELIA BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...STILL NOT
MOVING...
EDIT: Never mind, we solved it.
Seems to be something amiss...
even if for only 1 advisory on Septemeber 8th, 2005; Maria, Nate and Ophelia were all hurricanes at 5pm
Karl
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
That isn't necessarily the data that goes into HURRDAT though. The final data is in the post storm analysis and sometimes changes from the operational advisory.
I changed it - I realised I made it Friday, not Thursday - a day later.
My eyes were screwy.
Despite what "The List" may say...I'm really not a bad guy :)
These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.
boy you guys sure love your ACE here in Dr. Masters blog lol
However, by the advisories (which are timed differently), they were all hurricanes at the same time.
because its 10 days out not too important when you have 3 hurricanes at this moment spinning!!!
09/08 18 GMT 39.1 47.2 75 985 Category 1 Hurricane
09/09 00 GMT 39.4 46.4 70 987 Tropical Storm (MARIA)
--
09/08 18 GMT 31.4 62.7 85 982 Category 1 Hurricane
09/09 00 GMT 32.6 61.1 90 979 Category 1 Hurricane (NATE)
--
09/08 18 GMT 28.6 79.5 70 988 Tropical Storm
09/09 00 GMT 28.6 79.3 75 990 Category 1 Hurricane (OPHELIA)
(I looked at that list earlier, why I said with a previous question that 2005 fell just short. Glad I wasn't wrong... I think?)
Link
So SJ, is the little feature at about ~12 N, ~35 W what GFS is spinning up?
Fits the pattern for a wave to come off ITCZ almost to the Caribbean for the GoM to get a threat. All of the waves coming off of Africa have been too high in latitude to make it across in the absence of stout ridging.
Since recording took place in 1851... the last 15 years have had more of them triplicate storms.
Minus, of course, the ones "unknown" in the eighteen hundreds.
He may be needed soon.
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 08 2005
...MARIA STILL A HURRICANE...
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
...NATE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
...OPHELIA BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...STILL NOT
MOVING...
hes right, per nhc
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