A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.
Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.
Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..
Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.
Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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if i post an image, does the blog automatically downsize it? or do i have to resize before posting?
i'm assuming the blog formats it, as i've never seen the margins blown in 4 yrs of lurking, but i didn't want to try it without asking first.
thx for any answers (i think i'm hidden, but maybe someone will see me, lol)
Hope RIP Karl doesn't hurt anybody in Mex
from its previous heading of due West
H.Karl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~6.7mph(~10.7km/h)
16Sep 06amGMT - - 19.7n91.2w - - - 40mph - - 1000mb - - NHC.Adv.#6A
16Sep 09amGMT - - 19.8n91.6w - - - 50mph - - 1000mb - - #7
16Sep 12pmGMT - - 19.6n92.1w - - - 65mph - - - 986mb - - ???
??? 12:30pmGMT - - 19.7n92.2w - - - 65mph - - - 987mb - - #8
16Sep 03pmGMT - - 19.7n92.8w - - - 75mph - - - 983mb - - #9
16Sep 06pmGMT - - 19.7n93.3w - - - 75mph - - - 983mb - - #9A
16Sep 09pmGMT - - 19.6n93.7w - - - 80mph - - - 977mb - - #10
17Sep 12amGMT - - 19.7n94.1w - - - 80mph - - - 971mb - - #10A
17Sep 03amGMT - - 19.7n94.5w - - 100mph - - - 968mb - - #11
17Sep 06amGMT - - 19.7n94.8w - - 105mph - - - 967mb - - #11A
Copy &paste 19.7n91.2w, 19.8n91.6w, 19.7n92.2w, 19.7n92.8w, 19.7n93.3w-19.6n93.7w, 19.6n93.7w-19.7n94.1w, 19.7n94.1w-19.7n94.5w, 19.7n94.5w-19.7n94.8w, tam, ver, cun, 19.7n94.8w-19.69n96.41w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12*hours.
Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~15hours from now to LagunaVerde,Veracruz,Mexico
east of XalapaEnriquez
* The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
You just tell everyone to use this...
If they find something funny, well thought out, informative, or even interesting.
Or you could develop a "Client list" from which to work...Granted not a single "Client" pays for anything.
Really done, came in to turn the monitor off and had to peek...Damn this addictive place :)
Now we watch ADT go crazy.
the cv season is ending
The thing is that if they leave because they think there are nasty people here out of control, They will have to implement controls in their blog, and there is no guarantee that their blog won't suffer from what they are escaping.... I think this blog is super OK. and I'm learning a lot...
You aren't hidden, but I don't have the answer to your question. If you use the image link, it generally comes out ok.
thx for any answers (I think I'm hidden, but maybe someone will see me, lol)"
The blog will automatically format it, but I've seen LOTS of vertical distortion.
Probably best to fill in "width" with 500 and the charts are usually "height" of 320.
As long as you fill in both "width" and "height", you can always use "modify" to change the height until the picture looks right.
Auto doesn't give you that option.
Looking a little ragged.
I've followed the blog for 3 years now (lurking the first year or so) and I value the input from Storm, it'd honestly be hard not to, he knows his stuff. That said, it may have come time for him to branch off, start his own gig, whatever.
However, it is a shame he couldn't have taken his exit with more dignity, I get he was pissed, but an internet flounce is never attractive (and his detractors loved every second of it). The whole thing could have gone down so much more maturely.
At what point will Igor start to draw into Julia's moisture?
What would the likely result be?
Since 2004 they have been replacing the snapped wooden power poles here in EC FL with concrete ones. You're telling me that these are designed to snap as well? I don't see the point.
i'll try one just using the image link to see, and quickly edit it if need be (preview is still showing 650px, and it's the same pic others posted at 500px)
hmmm, had to hit 'rich text', otherwise the img just linked in plain text....
hmm, i know how to do html < img src = " blah blah in other forums, just wasn't sure how this one worked
k' sorry to bother you all.....
2. No maintenance. See the green ones with the paint peeling!
3.Easier to replace when damaged! Unscrew the old one. Replace!
Oh Jeez, I just came for the coffee.... wait a minute I'll go look out the window... (zziipppppp!)
HOLY MOLEY BATMAN!
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