A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.
Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.
Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..
Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.
Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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How far did you go back?
look at this what if Karl dips south and hits the very bottom of his cone. Everyone under a tropical storm warning would then get a category 4, the NHC should be more wary of they're watches and warnings.
Tropical records seem to begin in earnest in the third quarter of the 19th century.
And if it does hit the bottom area of the cone Veracruz gets mashed by a CAT4 and Karl is off the naming lists for good.
Alright.
Well, you narrowly missed one (and it really is almost so close that you can call it a technicality, to be honest. But still)
1909 Monterrey Hurricane.
It regained major hurricane status... at 20.9N; 84.1W.
So, technically, within the confines of your dimensions and within the Bay of Campeche, though just barely - and Karl is already stronger and much lower down.
I'll have to keep looking, but I suspect that would be the only other case.
Link
Link
Nearly a 100 years ago.
Pray harder...
Well, that's why I used the word "roughly"; that storm was north of the northern tip of the YP when it became a major, and didn't make landfall in the Bay.
There are several posts on this below, and the answer is no. No major storms have made landfall in the BOC since the mid-to-late 1800s.
Bad news this Cane intensified so fast.
getting ready to leave for work and had to come chek on Karl... oh my goodness that storm did ramp up to become a major storm in short amount of time. everyone knew he could..now could be cat 4 at landing...
WOW, once we get a storm it becomes a major quickly.
catch you all later on morning break at work.
Hurricane force winds are in a very small area (25 miles out or less). The "less" part is likely in the southern half of the storm. What they have at this point seems Ok.
809,206
Does anybody know if Karl stills a Hurrican cat3 or is now a cat4. I'm waiting for the noaa's bulletin but it seems that will take a few hrs more to see it.
This says 400k plus
Link
You don't want to know. The line is OFCL, and (M) is the 12-hour forecast. EDIT: Google Earth's rule says 2.0 miles normal distance...
Microwave looks impressive
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2010_13L/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_04.html
from the Wiki page someone just posted, there is a panoramic view of Xalapa and the structures don't look all that great :(
warning - large file size:
panoramic view of Xalapa
You'd probably have to look at Hurricane Stan in 2005, which killed 1,500 in Guatemala (sort of indirectly) from flooding. Guatemala's already pretty flooded out, so given the fact Karl's small, they may miss the rain.
(Wiki says it killed 35 and caused around 2 1/2 billion USD in damage in Mexico)
8 municipalities in Veracruz have mandatory coastal evacuations. And let's say that the state of Veracruz is not as urbanized as Tamaulipas and Monterrey, which were hit by Alex and still caused $1 billion+ USD damage.
thats a scary thought. Karl looks impressive this morning
Viewing: 1951 - 2001
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