A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.
Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.
Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..
Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.
Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Don't count him out.
I don't think it's a coincidence. The unexplained intensity buildup of this storm coupled with its direction and apparent target is too eerie for words.
In regards Igor... sure hope the increased shear to its N and now NW (Over Bermuda) increases further so we can end up with an Earl and for this to just become "a nice little breeze" as it passes by.
Not good for the GOMEX.
Agreed. Wish he were not so impressive considering where he is going. If only he had followed the forecast given 'to' him.
No, 1950 was quicker, but not by much.
Julia actually strengthened a bit within the last few hours on her way to destruction.
18 days or so.
And Julia's got a more westerly movement this morning
Two.
Wow you hang out at the jail and survey the population?
There has been no difference in mental health status of arrests. That is just plain made up.
Able got very close to Cape Hatteras, like Earl.
Baker made several landfalls.
Charlie made none, but may have given Bermuda squally winds and rain, depending on his size.
Dog made landfall in the North Leeward Islands.
Easy made landfall close to Tampa.
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STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR IMMINENT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
IIRC, Earl was a strong Category 2 as its eyewall passed over Antigua. So no. Almost though.
You mean as a major?
I'm saying in general. Major it'd be... probably around 2. Though, Baker was very very close to the islands as a Cat 3, Able was very close to North Carolina as a Cat 4.
...KARL NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...BEARING DOWN ON THE COAST OF MEXICO
Can we expect an synopsis form you today?
Think that should be Anguilla
Of course! Only reason I haven't done one the last two days is because I've been pretty darn busy. But today looks good.
Keep your eyes peeled!
British Virgin Islands in the eyewall when Earl was a Cat 3. (Anegada)
And morning Kori!
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