A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.
Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.
Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..
Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.
Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Just got electricity back, after a Lightening storm overhead at 2:00 am that went on for an hour. Pretty exciting light-show.
Reminded me of those 2:00 am's under the Strobes in the Disco......
3/4" of rain. Still overcast. Damp and Dank this morning.
I guess you need to keep your day job :)
Link
Karl's hurricane wind wing span is 25 miles, so maybe Veracruz will be spared the worst. But just north of Veracruz is gonna get slammed.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
Storm Surge will be 10-15 feet.
Heavy rains up to 15 inches in mountainous areas.
It appears to my untrained eye that there is some interaction already. However I think that it's more due to the weakening of the trough that has been pulling him northward. I have been calling for a more westerly track all along.
Not very. City of Veracruz (pop. 444,000) is to the south of projected landfall.
Karl is headed for the mountains around Mexico City, though. Expected to drop 12" of rain there. That'll be interesting. Mexico City is prone to flooding and the sewers are pretty blocked there.
Well, the good news is if your gonna have a pattern change like that....its good its happening later rather than earlier. The East atlantic cyclone frequency seriously declines in the next 7 days......and with each day thereafter even more. The western carrib becomes a real hot spot in about 10 days and into october. If the pattern changes it is cause for some concern but not near what it would have been had it happened 2 or 3 weeks ago.
A storm-surge of 10/15 feet and rain in the mountains of up to 15" ???
That is real bad stuff.....
Thank you
Yeah, Potts. This is major landscape changer.
I hear Mexico has really good tropical storm prep plans though.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR IMMINENT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
Link
Indeed.
Nasty combinations coming together there.
Prayers to the Mexicans,,,,
Storm...is it typical to see the cold water extend that far West in the Pacific?
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...19.6N 95.6W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER KARL MOVES INLAND.
Possible. But hard to tell from that...
The Luis "Pirata" Fuente Stadium named in honour of Luís de la Fuente, one of the best Mexican soccer players (who played in the 1950s). This facility have a capacity of 30,000 seats and is located at the seaside in Veracruz. This sport facility is used mostly for soccer games and is the home of CD Veracruz. This stadium is also referred as the "Colossus of the Virginia neighborhood" ("Coloso del Fraccionamiento Virginia" in Spanish).
No more troughs? There are ALWAYS more troughs..
Here's Igor!
I do believe Karl is starting an EWRC, which is good, because it means weakening. Yet ANOTHER close call. Karl is still VERY dangerous though.
Thank You........Very interesting......Conditions in Bermuda are probably going to start to deteriorate by this evening through Monday...A real mess for them.
Nothing for northern GOM on GFS...ECMWF...NOGAPS.
Be a good time to visit the Portlight blog and Paypal button.
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