A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.
Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.
Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..
Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.
Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Igor is right along the forecast points and headed for Bermuda.
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion
Excerpt:
THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL WAS AN OUTLIER IN FORECASTING A CYCLONE
TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEAST US RIDGE
THU 23 SEP. THE GFS/ECMWF/RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS MAINTAIN NO
DEVELOPMENTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF THEN...AND THESE SOLUTIONS
WILL BE PREFERRED.
Veracruz is now reporting steady rain - it's received 2.05 inches in the last three hours, and the rainfall is strengthening. But the real problem along the coast will be the storm surge, and that should focus well above the City of Veracruz. Some of the poorer neighborhoods there suffer from poor drainage, though.
The southern portion of the State of Vercruz suffered from heavy flooding at the beginning of the month, which displaced some 200,000 residents. Even the milder rains this storm is bringing to cities like Tlacotalpan are most unwelcome, and will prolong that suffering.
The wildcard here is just how much rain Karl dumps inland - particularly because it has the potential to slow substantially at higher elevations. I expect to hear reports of mudslides, of flooding, and sadly, of some real misery. In the US, the surge and the wind are generally the worst of it. But in less developed nations, it's most often the rainfall that exacts the heaviest toll.
been looking at our Atlantic storms and it looks like Julia is moving to west so fast she is going to bump into Igor, or jump up in front of him.... what will happen then?
Will Igor just absorb Julia? or just shear her into oblivion?
That's typical for a La Nina setup...
Igor may still be around for Lisa. Karl and Julia? Not bloody likely.
Floridaoilspillaw
It's documenting conditions on the ground in terms of toxicity levels, environmental hazards, oil discovery, etc. on a grassroots basis.
Prepare to evacuate pretty quickly basically because a storm surge, high winds and flooding will be only a single component of your concerns.
Thank's tkeith!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And...ah...Woof!! Woof!!
(that ought to make Dewey hungry)
Indeed... GFS has been backing out little by little and just maintaining some ghost storm in long range outputs.
Too soon. He his to close to land and can't get energy from the west..
It is more like he is starting to lose convection and fall apart.
I cant help the Dawgs though :)
Link
CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE
Only a southern person can image that!
those bisquits love gravy!
It's great that you're poised to help Bermuda - but you might want to update the blog for Karl, which is going to hit first and probably effect a much larger population.
there seem to be an area of disturbed weather trying to gel near 10N 46W and moving west. there is some vorticity near the area, as well as some covergence and divergence
CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE
It's a tossup. It might be rather difficult to get the new trailer to Bermuda. On the other hand, you can drive it to Veracruz but it might not come back with you.
not enough time to strengthen to a more catastrophic storm
but not enough time to weaken to a non destuctive storm
You're absolutely right!!! We're workin' on that right now...Thanks!!
Morning all. Good to see you Gamma!
Making me hungry...that's for sure.
thanks for the link to the maps you look at. very interesting.
I feel embarrased because I do not know really how to read those maps compared to you and everyone in this chat room due to my inexperience.
the scenario you were talking about above regarding the scary setup displayed by the ECMWF. is this the same as yesterday having Tampa in the mix or the gulf coast? thanks
Yes, and TAFB has backed off of a system in their Gridded Marine Forecast. but IMO still needs to be watched. Visible this morning indicates a "spin" ~37W 12N but it may just be mid level, hope ASCAT catches the area.
This is def an area to watch. Drak and some others were talking about it the other day when at 10N and 40W.
we're able to fly the contents into Bermuda...assuming the airport is open, etc...as for Mexico, we'll take our chances if we're needed...
Good luck either way.
Look at that pressure, 944.2mb. I guess the actual is a little higher? Is there a way to tell the winds from that output?
That's for sure, specially with this season still being far from over.
Thats for sure. Plus in Mexico you have millions of logistics experts.
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