A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.
Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.
Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..
Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.
Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Thats for sure. Plus in Mexico you have millions of logistics experts.
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
probably not a smart question but just wondering if the Low area shifted westward or not.
thanks
All the dry air from his outflow to his west
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg
looks like he's got some dry air..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html
Julias is close to his east
He has been moving so slowly a over the same LARGE area of ocean for a a while..
A weak surface High behind the trough that is passing him to the north is supposed to build for 24-36 hours to his north until it moves off to the NE and this is slowing him down since there are no strong upper level steering currents
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fpc.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_000.shtml
Next trough comes in two days.. until then he will probably meander WNW a bit...
Stormjunkie is in charge of this...
That's about the size of it (no pun) It's a wait and see situation. It is getting interesting though.
Come on guys.
HAHAHAHA Well you know when you know the terms to use you must know what you're saying..
Give annular another chance for who.. Igor lost his eye Julia has been forced over colder water and into a surface high so has been shear to a Cat one and is son to get farthe rnorth into the Westerlies and Igor is having blindness, dry air to the west, surface high pinching, trough tugging into a oblong issues as he uses up the OHC under him...but oh he is still pumping the mid-level ridge to his north .. you can look at the way it is getting pumped by the way it is retreating North and East on these
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fpc.shtml
Link
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 13:09Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2010
Storm Name: Karl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 12:55:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°32'N 95°41'W (19.5333N 95.6833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 210 miles (337 km) to the WNW (301°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,752m (9,029ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 101kts (~ 116.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the SE (144°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 233° at 97kts (From the SW at ~ 111.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SE (141°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 959mb (28.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,068m (10,066ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 98kts (~ 112.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:58:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 98kts (~ 112.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:58:30Z
It's pretty easy to stay on the forecast points when you can move them every 3 to 6 hours...lol. imo, he's been moving WNW for the last couple of days, not NW like they say he is.
Looking at the wv loop, is that a ULL coming down from the north? - could disrupt any possible developement.
Yes but it is being inconsistent, development is not as early or intense and farther west than a few days ago when it was supposed to be formed south of me and so there is some hope the storm will not be as large and as for track we know how that goes before a storm is actually formed.
How is that for a run on sentence?
Coordinates: 19.6667N 95.7667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.3 mb (~ 20.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,908 meters (~ 9,541 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 968.7 mb (~ 28.61 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 58° at 95 knots (From the ENE at ~ 109.2 mph)
Air Temp: 16.6°C (~ 61.9°F)
Dew Pt: 8.8°C (~ 47.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 98 knots (~ 112.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 95 knots (~ 109.2 mph)
Very well said and sobering to think about. To me it looks like Karl is slowing, which will make things even worse.
Annular (verb) - the shape someones head takes when looking really hard for something that is not there.
In all seriousness, when was the last annular hurricane? They have to be rare.
I don't see one but then again I am no expert.
Not sure it is an ULL, but from what the models have been hinting at, it is not supposed to develop until it gets in the W Carib anyway. It's a long way from there at this point.
They have shifted a bit but the overall motion towards Bermuda's direction is pretty certain at this point.........Problem is that any more shifts or wobbles to the West could bring the NE quadrant right over the Island...I hope that it stays on right side of the model guidance which would make a huge difference for them.
Very interesting nrti. Thanks for posting that.
And good morning to you :)
Cheezemm
I'm from the Akron and Youngstown area, that looks like similar damage to the 85 tornado outbreak that hit Niles oH
Thanks!
Ascat missed it, maybe Windsat will catch part of it. Pouch synopsis from yesterday was so so on the system.
Good mornin back at ya!
A little further east than I thought but interesting none the less.
It does have a decent 850MB VORT:
A weak 500MB VORT but still discernible:
According to John Knaff, the leading authority on the objective identification of Annular Hurricanes, storms of that type comprise roughly 4% of all tropical cyclones that reach hurricane strength. In other words, we should expect to see an annular storm about once for every twenty-five hurricanes we observe.
The most recent list that I can find was published about eighteen months ago, and analyzed storms through the 2006 season. The most recent Atlantic storm to be characterized as annular, according to that list, was Frances in 2004, which maintained the status for 10 hours.
------
Atlantic AHs, 1995-2006:
Luis 1995
Edouard 1996
Erin 2001
Isabel 2003
Kate 2003
Frances 2004
Pacific AHs, 1995-2006:
Barbara 1995
Darby 1998
Howard 1998
Beatriz 1999
Dora 1999
Daniel 2000
Bud 2006
Daniel 2006
Link not working for me but nice to see you; let us know if you folks need anything for Bermuda or Mexico........"Oye Como Va"
Many thanks!!! Apparently the site is overloaded...
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