A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.
Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.
Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..
Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.
Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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from its previous heading of dueWest
H.Karl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~7mph(~11.2km/h)
16Sep 12pmGMT - - 19.6n92.1w - - - 65mph - - 986mb - - NHC.Adv.
??? 12:30pmGMT - - 19.7n92.2w - - - 65mph - - 987mb - - #8
16Sep 03pmGMT - - 19.7n92.8w - - - 75mph - - 983mb - - #9
16Sep 06pmGMT - - 19.7n93.3w - - - 75mph - - 983mb - - #9A
16Sep 09pmGMT - - 19.6n93.7w - - - 80mph - - 977mb - - #10
17Sep 12amGMT - - 19.7n94.1w - - - 80mph - - 971mb - - #10A
17Sep 03amGMT - - 19.7n94.5w - - 100mph - - 968mb - - #11
17Sep 06amGMT - - 19.7n94.8w - - 105mph - - 967mb - - #11A
17Sep 09amGMT - - 19.7n95.3w - - 110mph - - 961mb - - #12
16Sep 12pmGMT - - 19.6n95.6w - - 120mph - - 956mb - - #12A
Copy &paste 19.7n92.1w, 19.7n92.8w, 19.7n93.3w, 19.6n93.7w, 19.7n94.1w-19.7n94.5w, 19.7n94.5w-19.7n94.8w, 19.7n94.8w-19.7n95.3w, 19.7n95.3w-19.6n95.6w, ver, cza, 19.6n95.6w-19.36n96.32w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12*hours.
Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~5hours from now to JoseCardel,Veracruz,Mexico
* The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Won't this help push IGOR further EAST?
WVLoop
The trouble is that the article is in a subscription-only journal. I've got access to it through an institution, but I can't link to it beyond the paywall.
Given what is going on in the Atlantic right now, I think that chart may not be extended enough.
Link
Ah, gotcha. Journal article?
That said... it is amazing what 12' can do.
Right now the areas with the most potential are the wave that just came off Africa and the area near 12N 45W. But the GFS is not developing anything for at least a week.
That would mean Florida is not out of the woods yet.
yea if he could get to between 65W and 70W before a turn would be a lot better
DOOM!
Sorry, meant east. I get them mixed up all the time... :)
Link
You are not off topic. That is weather related. I wonder if NWS or anyone has done a study to see if trailer parks are tornado magnets. Seems like they get hit a lot.
WV Interaction
Sept. 29- Oct. 3 could be interesting
Could mean big trouble.
I hope people in Florida are prepared,just in case.
It will only take ONE!!!
They toss them like matchbox cars!
I actually think it is 3 or 4 T warnings NYC this summer. Weird year!
+1 --- That's what most folks in here forget, one bad one where they live and they will always remember
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 14:23Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2010
Storm Name: Karl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 14:12:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 1927'N 9552'W (19.45N 95.8667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 213 miles (343 km) to the E (89) from Mxico City, Distrito Federal, Mxico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,798m (9,180ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 86kts (~ 99.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NW (323) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 46 at 97kts (From the NE at ~ 111.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NW (324) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 959mb (28.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16C (61F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16C (61F) at a pressure alt. of 3,026m (9,928ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12C (54F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 118kts (~ 135.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 14:14:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 118kts (~ 135.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 14:14:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18C (64F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NW (325) from the flight level center
Just an aside.. tornadoes don't head toward trailer parks... it's just that those structures are more lightly built than more permanents structures, so they tend to get more damage for the same intensity of tornado.
Add to that the fact that mobile homes are more densely sited than other structures, so any damage is likely to affect more structures...
src="http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/photos/world_big.jpg">ITCZ
So, maybe a full 12 hours early - much like Hermine.
I like to talk about weather
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