Matthew drenching Central America and Mexico
Tropical Storm Matthew continues to dump heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and neighboring regions of Mexico today. Puerto Barrios, in northern Guatemala, has received 4.57" of rain in the past 24 hours. With Matthew expected to slow down and dissipate by Sunday, the storm's heavy rains of 6 - 15 inches can be expected to cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. The rains are of particular concern for Guatemala, which suffered its rainiest August in its history, followed by the landfall of Tropical Depression 11E during the first week of September, which dumped torrential rains on the country that triggered flooding and mudslides that killed at least 48 Guatemalans.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken yesterday, showing Tropical Storm Matthew approaching landfall.
Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for the 5-day period beginning at 2am EDT today (Saturday, September 25) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT (6Z) run of the GFDL. Very heavy rains in excess of eight inches (yellow colors) are predicted for portions of Central America along Matthew's track. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa pulled a bit of a surprise last night, intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds in the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa's longitude of 27.9W at the time made it the 10th strongest hurricane so far east in the Atlantic. Record keeping began in 1851, but it is likely that many hurricanes stronger than Lisa were missed prior to the advent of reliable satellite coverage in 1974. Lisa is even farther east than Category 4 Hurricane Julia, which earlier this month set the record for strongest hurricane ever recorded so far east. Lisa's glory will be short-lived, though, as strong upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase tonight, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over the storm. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.
Forecast for the rest of the tropics
Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.
I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yes, Dewey, I assume it is new forecasting model smell but it could be the large concentration of plastic underpants.
Jed,
We all have known for years, Tampa has a "shield" and does not get storms!(J/k)
How many storms have we watched together here
where Tampa was "in the cone" then the storm dives south or even north.
But your day will come and it will probably not be pretty with your bay situation and all the flooding the Tampa Bay area will get..
ehh don't worry about it till it happens, you know how that goes!
Hi, it's working for me. Try downloading and using google chrome or mozilla firefox as your browser. About two years back I had trouble with the quote function while I used Internet Explorer. It may have been a coincidence.
I'm not great with computers, so if that doesn't work for you, maybe someone else can put in their 2 bits.
I just looked at the current steering and I see that it has gotten weaker, once the remants of Matthew get around 91W it will stall out
I did it yay Thanks so much
my work week is wrapping up and I have a few things to tend to.
I will catch you all later.
Enjoy your evening and we will be catching carefully for development during the next 7-10 days. ROFL!! LOL
I was looking at that on recent runs to judge weather a remnant of Matthew would be in the redevelopment. Based on following the 850mb vorticity my opinion at this time is it would not. However that is based on the GFS model and we have to watch what actually occurs.
EDIT: Add
This is the first time this year I actually agree that the development is monsoonal.
lol!
Love to see your member blog explaining why.
Thank you for your time.
114 hours
900mb winds of 54 knots. Weakens as it moves closer to FL.
YEAH!!! now I am really leaving this time.
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE N WATERS WEAKENS TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST
LATE SUN AND EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 25N90W TO
19N95W BY LATE MON...AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 24N90W
TO 19N93W LATE TUE...AND STALL FROM N-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WED AND THU. NEW LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN TUE AND DRIFT NW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE S PORTIONS OF THE E
AND CENTRAL GULF.
Duly noted, but also we know the GFS generally depicts systems as weaker than they actually are
Was banned for good.
Now on another site.
Joe Bastardi
I am using explorer and I always have to hit the quote button twice.
there's south easterly shear also impacting the system, making it seem like it's moving fast twards the NW.
Stormchaser2007 can repost that first advisory track
NHC track-wise has been nearly dead on
Caribbean remains hot.
I think the NHC did a great job on the track, oh and thanks for posting that again lol
ur welcome
Dang, nrt! You should write the Storm Dicussions. I'm speechless. No snappy comeback to that. I'm gonna go do some yardwork.
(
;)
Link
You should mail StormJukie for details.
Otherwise, it would be best to not talk about it on here. Never ends up well.
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