Matthew drenching Central America and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on September 25, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew continues to dump heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and neighboring regions of Mexico today. Puerto Barrios, in northern Guatemala, has received 4.57" of rain in the past 24 hours. With Matthew expected to slow down and dissipate by Sunday, the storm's heavy rains of 6 - 15 inches can be expected to cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. The rains are of particular concern for Guatemala, which suffered its rainiest August in its history, followed by the landfall of Tropical Depression 11E during the first week of September, which dumped torrential rains on the country that triggered flooding and mudslides that killed at least 48 Guatemalans.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken yesterday, showing Tropical Storm Matthew approaching landfall.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for the 5-day period beginning at 2am EDT today (Saturday, September 25) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT (6Z) run of the GFDL. Very heavy rains in excess of eight inches (yellow colors) are predicted for portions of Central America along Matthew's track. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa pulled a bit of a surprise last night, intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds in the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa's longitude of 27.9W at the time made it the 10th strongest hurricane so far east in the Atlantic. Record keeping began in 1851, but it is likely that many hurricanes stronger than Lisa were missed prior to the advent of reliable satellite coverage in 1974. Lisa is even farther east than Category 4 Hurricane Julia, which earlier this month set the record for strongest hurricane ever recorded so far east. Lisa's glory will be short-lived, though, as strong upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase tonight, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over the storm. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Forecast for the rest of the tropics
Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.

I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm.

Jeff Masters

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1713. brianc
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
NOTHING in the south florida news media about any "storm" hitting. keep dreaming, kids!


CBS was all over it...even went so far as to say whatever "it" is will be sandwiched between the cold front and receding high to the east and head right toward florida...the W,T,F forecast had a big ? surrounded by tropical moisture...said they were going to keep a very close eye on it.
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Model core pressure to min 988 on a global, that could easily be a Cat 2.

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Quoting EricSFL:


That is the 12z run.


Thanks for that, FSU just updated to the 00Z.
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Quoting EricSFL:


That is the 12z run.


00z stronger
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1708. EricSFL
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


What? That's a big dog my friend.



That is the 12z run.
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1707. LeMoyne
Anybody notice Lisa is 90 degrees off track and growing big?
Lisa had a Jet Stream Shear and Guidance Event around midday UTC - recoiled to heading ENE (1215-2215 UTC)

I tracked the JSGE that disassembled Lisa's mid-level and her reassembly on a recoil course.
I tracked it and will post date notes and story on the aftermath once I get them typed up.

Aftermath (flt-vis 0925 1845) Bad Lisa ...Smokin!!!

Once and future West Arm goin' WSW and Lisa goin' ENE.
Mid-level convection vortices crawling back on through spiral path on rear of Lisa going ENE.


A Clue At Dusk (AtlTropWide-viz 0925 1845) Before Lisa slips into her murk

~~Lisa just after dark with more helpers comin on board on lit spiral path - aready way off track...


Night after JSGE:
It is busy time in Lisa (flt-bd-Dvorak 0926 0345) The City of Vortices

Try a CIMSS movie to see the busy times.
Center at about 25.5W24.5N ? core growing ? and going back to going north !? (is NE heading) while re-attaching broken arm.
ADT peak is leakage out of massive snow/fog shunt to W helpers from N side and Lisa core center (normal outflow).
Western bright ring is W arm reattachment process
Seems most motion now is either N/NE or growth or all.
Lisa huge again - rofl and Wow!!

Tomorrow (or sooner) ::
Is Lisa ready for another a cold front?
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1706. JRRP
Link
convection south Dom Rep
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....

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Quoting EricSFL:


So the CMC still depicts a strong TS / minimal hurricane.


What? That's a big dog my friend.

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1702. JLPR2
Quoting SirTophamHatt:


Some real smart I tell you what


The wind should have suddenly stopped, they deserved it. :|
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1701. EricSFL
Quoting xcool:




So the CMC still depicts a strong TS / minimal hurricane.
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Quoting zoomiami:
Yep - I'm out too. Night all


Night Zoo!
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I heard on the weather channel that after Mathew is through(maybe a remnant of Mat) that there will be another system that will develop and around the Yucatan channel and move North.
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Some real smart I tell you what
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1697. Skyepony (Mod)
PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti (AP) — The sudden, powerful storm that ripped through Haiti's battered capital destroyed thousands of tents in the homeless camps where more than 1.3 million people live eight months after the earthquake destroyed their homes, shelter officials said Saturday.

The death toll from Friday afternoon's storm stood at six people, with nearly 8,000 tents damaged or destroyed, according to a statement from the United Nation's International Organization for Migration. The organization said it had distributed 5,000 tarps.

Earlier, Civil Protection chief Marie Alta Jean-Baptiste told The Associated Press that the dead included two children and hundreds of people were reported with varying degrees of injury.

The storm's effect was exacerbated by the flimsiness of tarps and tents that have been baking, soaking and flapping in the Caribbean elements since the Jan. 12 earthquake killed at least 230,000 people and left millions homeless. Hundreds of thousands of families continue living on the streets of the capital waiting for temporary housing or money to find new apartments.

"Many of the tents that were destroyed had reached their end of lifespan," said Gerhard Tauscher, shelter cluster coordinator for the International Federation of the Red Cross.

The storm was not part of any tropical system but rather a standard early-fall Caribbean storm caused by cold and dry conditions in the upper atmosphere, U.S. National Hurricane Center senior specialist Stacy Stewart told AP.

Windspeed and rainfall data were not immediately available. Based on the reports of uprooted trees and damaged tents, Stewart estimated winds might have reached 60 mph (100 kph) — a violent storm, but far below hurricane strength. more
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1696. xcool


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Anyotherliestotell: I thought you had a life what happened lost it because of your negativity
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Quoting leo305:
I tend not to look at GFS for intensity but for track or development.. it's really good at those two


The GFS and other global's get better when there is actual storm data being entered in to correctly depict the core. Global's should never be used to gauge the strength of a forecast storm.
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1693. EricSFL
Hi
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Hello everyone!
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1691. JRRP

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1690. leo305
I tend not to look at GFS for intensity but for track or development.. it's really good at those two
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting zoomiami:


Good observation.


The euro is a global model as well so, similar returns can be expected. There is a record amount of heat energy in the Caribbean and a pattern setting up to bring it all out.
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1687. xcool
TampaSpin you big time player lol
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1686. xcool
EricSFL haha
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Quoting anyotherliestotell:
NIte all i am beat, just got back home since 8am poker run. Road the Hogs 160 miles today on 5 pub stops

i guess you're one of those washed up, middle aged clowns speeding down our highways with your gorda chica. i mock your type when i'm not laughing at news stories about your concrete mishaps


I really find it odd that your still able to be here?
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1684. EricSFL
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
The GFS is trying to tell us that the horrors of GW are on our doorstep. Anyway, I gotta run and gas up my Hummer.


You're concerned about GW, yet you have a Hummer... Kind of like Gore and his jetplane.
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1682. xcool
KerryInNOLA /;lol
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Quoting zoomiami:
Yep - I'm out too. Night all


Nite Zoo
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Quoting zoomiami:


He tries to play S&I, but it doesn't work so well. Guess that halo is getting a little dirty.


I have been so S&I this year..I have not even had to polish it.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
The Global GFS can't analyze the core of a storm but, it recognizes the heat and energy so, in turn may produce multiple lows to move the equivalent amount of heat out of the Caribbean. Mushing through the junk a single Cat2/3 out of all this is my opinion.


Good observation.
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1676. dader
Seems like the latest GFS is looking more like the Euro- w broad low pressure. Got be even more a nightmare than a 99O+ mb TC- slow moving and a lot of rain. It will be interesting to see if the CMC Euro and GFS all agree tmrw
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Yep - I'm out too. Night all
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Quoting zoomiami:


For a while there it felt like we were preparing for storms everytime we turned around. In 05 or 06, can't quite remember, we had almost two full weeks of lost time at work. Hard to make money when you aren't open.


It was 2005. I practically lived at the hospital. During hurricanes, if we were already on shift, we couldn't leave and if we could get there, we had to come. What a nightmare. Plus, I didn't have power for four or five days.
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The Global GFS can't analyze the core of a storm but, it recognizes the heat and energy so, in turn may produce multiple lows to move the equivalent amount of heat out of the Caribbean. Mushing through the junk a single Cat2/3 out of all this is my opinion.
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Quoting foggymyst:
...troublemaker, orca...


He tries to play S&I, but it doesn't work so well. Guess that halo is getting a little dirty.
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NIte all i am beat, just got back home since 8am poker run. Road the Hogs 160 miles today on 5 pub stops and not a bit of rain as i did the dance for it to stay south.
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...troublemaker, orca...
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Quoting CapeObserver:


I'm with you zoo! Hat trick on no shutters. Some rain with a strong breeze will be good, and if they can make it on a weekend so I don't miss any work, that would also be great. No time for hurricanes!


For a while there it felt like we were preparing for storms everytime we turned around. In 05 or 06, can't quite remember, we had almost two full weeks of lost time at work. Hard to make money when you aren't open.
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Quoting songman77:

I have a video of cows I took out my back door during hurricane Erin. They were in the back 40 behind our house - eating!


University of Florida

Protecting Dairy Cattle during a
Hurricane
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Quoting zoomiami:
With all the models showing something brewing, it would be amazing if something doesn't happen. Sure would be nice if it was just a tropical mess, without all the fuss of wind, etc.

I'm trying for 3 years with no shutters -- and I just don't have time to deal with hurricanes this year.



I'm with you zoo! Hat trick on no shutters. Some rain with a strong breeze will be good, and if they can make it on a weekend so I don't miss any work, that would also be great. No time for hurricanes!
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Quoting zoomiami:


Since Zoo and Foggy live about 5 miles apart, its obviously going to both places.


Nope.. only your place
Foggy keeps saying she is not getting enough rain.. and your complaining of web feet... someone has to be wrong.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.