Matthew drenching Central America and Mexico
Tropical Storm Matthew continues to dump heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and neighboring regions of Mexico today. Puerto Barrios, in northern Guatemala, has received 4.57" of rain in the past 24 hours. With Matthew expected to slow down and dissipate by Sunday, the storm's heavy rains of 6 - 15 inches can be expected to cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. The rains are of particular concern for Guatemala, which suffered its rainiest August in its history, followed by the landfall of Tropical Depression 11E during the first week of September, which dumped torrential rains on the country that triggered flooding and mudslides that killed at least 48 Guatemalans.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken yesterday, showing Tropical Storm Matthew approaching landfall.
Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for the 5-day period beginning at 2am EDT today (Saturday, September 25) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT (6Z) run of the GFDL. Very heavy rains in excess of eight inches (yellow colors) are predicted for portions of Central America along Matthew's track. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa pulled a bit of a surprise last night, intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds in the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa's longitude of 27.9W at the time made it the 10th strongest hurricane so far east in the Atlantic. Record keeping began in 1851, but it is likely that many hurricanes stronger than Lisa were missed prior to the advent of reliable satellite coverage in 1974. Lisa is even farther east than Category 4 Hurricane Julia, which earlier this month set the record for strongest hurricane ever recorded so far east. Lisa's glory will be short-lived, though, as strong upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase tonight, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over the storm. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.
Forecast for the rest of the tropics
Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.
I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Perfect illustration why building right on the ocean is a BAD idea.
Way to change the subject there!
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It appears Florida's luck is about to run out this coming week. You guys are going to have a rough October.
even tough the models say otherwise
I asked earlier if this was a surface circulation south of Haiti but no-one answered so I still don't know.
Yeah I know, I grew up there actually before moving to Florida lol.
Despite the exotic tropical sound of "monsoon", it really is all about pressure differences and shift in wind. Yet most people think a monsoon is a hurricane type storm, but its not a storm at all, rather extreme changes in weather pattern.
India has a monsoon, because cold dry winds from the mountains to the north bring high pressure, and extremely dry weather during the dry season(offshore wind), this is part of the monsoon as well despite what some have heard.
But during the wet season, deep moisture flowing in off the Indian ocean, and general low air pressure over land causes extremely heavy rainfall during that part of the monsoon.
I'm making a blog entry now. I'll let you know in just a little bit. :)
We're all wondering where the suspicious blob that will attack Florida will come from!
lol remember, its not a monsoonal low, if it ends up being not tropical, then it will either be a hybrid, or just a mid-latitude cyclone
yellow would be fine.
Interesting, nice post!
It has recently met it's demise. Thought that was an odd term from CPC.
ok gotcha... still learning.. thanks!
"THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL END THE THREAT OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND THE COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR WILL SURGE IN RIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT."
From Mobile,AL. discussion...
"THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...
BECOMING LOCATED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY NUMEROUS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT CLEARS THE
EASTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE MORE
QUICKLY EAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE FROPA
OCCURRING MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A LARGER GRADIENT IN LOW
TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FAR
NW ZONES TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWERS 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE
NW FL PANHANDLE. HIGHS MONDAY NEAR 80S NW TO MID 80S EAST. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW IT TO FINALLY FEEL LIKE
FALL AS LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE
COAST."......
Welcome to fall 2010.
So he's lazarus for the Tuesday dot?
And, yes, the front will be coming through.
What's that to my South East?
yep looks like I was right.. there's a low forming around that area or just south east of there
(while intended as a sarc comment, some folks really do think this way all the time and concerning everything)
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