Matthew drenching Central America and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on September 25, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew continues to dump heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and neighboring regions of Mexico today. Puerto Barrios, in northern Guatemala, has received 4.57" of rain in the past 24 hours. With Matthew expected to slow down and dissipate by Sunday, the storm's heavy rains of 6 - 15 inches can be expected to cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. The rains are of particular concern for Guatemala, which suffered its rainiest August in its history, followed by the landfall of Tropical Depression 11E during the first week of September, which dumped torrential rains on the country that triggered flooding and mudslides that killed at least 48 Guatemalans.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken yesterday, showing Tropical Storm Matthew approaching landfall.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for the 5-day period beginning at 2am EDT today (Saturday, September 25) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT (6Z) run of the GFDL. Very heavy rains in excess of eight inches (yellow colors) are predicted for portions of Central America along Matthew's track. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa pulled a bit of a surprise last night, intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds in the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa's longitude of 27.9W at the time made it the 10th strongest hurricane so far east in the Atlantic. Record keeping began in 1851, but it is likely that many hurricanes stronger than Lisa were missed prior to the advent of reliable satellite coverage in 1974. Lisa is even farther east than Category 4 Hurricane Julia, which earlier this month set the record for strongest hurricane ever recorded so far east. Lisa's glory will be short-lived, though, as strong upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase tonight, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over the storm. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Forecast for the rest of the tropics
Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.

I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting foggymyst:
Hi Zoo..Hi Orca.


perfect timing... absolutely perfect... Foggy did it
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Quoting truecajun:
since it's sort of slow tonight.... i've always wondered what cows and horses do during canes. where do they go? do they group together under a tree? I'm sure some of the horses have barns, but certainly not the cows.

anyhow, it would be interesting if someone did what the cows do in order to really be IN a cane and hopefully come out alive, like most of the cows


You never saw the movie Twister? maybe something similar. :)

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Quoting Orcasystems:


When I said that Matthew or its remnants would get you very very wet... you said.. I sure hope your right this time... promises promises..
what your getting now... may be a mild spring shower to what your going to get.



ooops.. that was Foggy...
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Hi Zoo..Hi Orca.
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Quoting truecajun:
since it's sort of slow tonight.... i've always wondered what cows and horses do during canes. where do they go? do they group together under a tree? I'm sure some of the horses have barns, but certainly not the cows.

anyhow, it would be interesting if someone did what the cows do in order to really be IN a cane and hopefully come out alive, like most of the cows



I don't know what they do, but I do know that during Andrew many horses were killed by the flying debris. It was not a pretty sight.
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1609. will40
Quoting truecajun:
since it's sort of slow tonight.... i've always wondered what cows and horses do during canes. where do they go? do they group together under a tree? I'm sure some of the horses have barns, but certainly not the cows.

anyhow, it would be interesting if someone did what the cows do in order to really be IN a cane and hopefully come out alive, like most of the cows



we have wild horses up here on an island
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Wait and see folks, wait and see. Your going to give yourselves a heart attack hinging on these models right now. Late tomorrow, Monday morning would be better, then look and study.

and to back me up

This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.

I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm.

Jeff Masters
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Quoting zoomiami:


hmmm, some rain does not translate into the mother lode of rain!


When I said that Matthew or its remnants would get you very very wet... you said.. I sure hope your right this time... promises promises..

what your getting now... may be a mild spring shower to what your going to get.
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since it's sort of slow tonight.... i've always wondered what cows and horses do during canes. where do they go? do they group together under a tree? I'm sure some of the horses have barns, but certainly not the cows.

anyhow, it would be interesting if someone did what the cows do in order to really be IN a cane and hopefully come out alive, like most of the cows

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Quoting Abacosurf:
This is the first link of the chain for the transfer of heat northward. Spin pull, spin pull......


Right. The latest GFS shows it really clearly. Not a pretty picture for Florida.
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1604. 34chip
NWS Key West, Fl 33040 9/26/2010

A SUBTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND SURGE IS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. FINALLY...LONG-TERM COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE OUR WINDS WINDS BY MID-WEEK. STAY
TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I might point out... you asked for rain.. and lots of it..I have the email


hmmm, some rain does not translate into the mother lode of rain!
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Repost

Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Looks at that black dot moving west at 83w 14N
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Quoting zoomiami:


I've decided that its time to go back to the tried & true -- put expensive fridge in when we redid kitchen a few years ago, never has worked as well as the old one. Did you get yours replaced?

and will you quit posting rain over us, everything is green enough.


I might point out... you asked for rain.. and lots of it..I have the email
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Looks at that black dot moving west at 83w 14N
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1599. will40
this run doesn't like me xcool
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1598. EricSFL
Quoting xcool:
EricSFL that call love lows

lol
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I completely agree. Certainly, I detest death and destruction. I've been known to cry during times of disaster. But I don't think that should prevent me from enjoying the experience of those weather systems, either.

But you're lucky I've even said this much. I fear that so many people don't truly understand the mind of a weather enthusiast. Some even look at us as "barbarians".


It's one thing to enjoy the experience a weather system, but another to continuously wish for a destructive hurricane regardless of the consequences to others. If someone wishes the experience, it is quite easy to head into the the middle of a hurricane and meet it head on. There are plenty on here who enjoy the adrenaline rush, but would never wish for one just to satisfy a selfish pleasure.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


This one?


This is the first link of the chain for the transfer of heat northward. Spin pull, spin pull......
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Is there a circulation developing in the GOH, possibly a break off from Matthew?
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Working.. and when I got home the 6 year old expensive fridge decided to quit.


I've decided that its time to go back to the tried & true -- put expensive fridge in when we redid kitchen a few years ago, never has worked as well as the old one. Did you get yours replaced?

and will you quit posting rain over us, everything is green enough.
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Quoting doorman79:
Ok

I'm out folks.

Peace
Link




that's the song my daddy to chose to dance with me on my wedding night. My husband jokes that he was so glad to finally not have to take care me that he chose "what a wonderful world" I'd like to think otherwise. LOL
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1591. xcool
EricSFL that call love lows
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Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Orca! Good to see you --- been golfing today?


Working.. and when I got home the 6 year old expensive fridge decided to quit.
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Quoting truecajun:


yes. sorry to hear it. sent up a prayer for you and your loved ones.


Thanks Cajun
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Quoting IKE:
No hurricane on this GFS run. Looking like the ECMWF more and more....



I don't see Nicole being a terribly strong system. Shear looks to be too prohibitive in the Gulf.
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1587. EricSFL
Quoting xcool:

omG! That looks like a chain of lows.
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1586. xcool


shear
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Quoting Abacosurf:
Anyone notice the low pressure that the GFS forms right around Pensacola in the next 12-18 hours.

Looks like starter for the engine.


You know what? I saw that blob on my local Florida radar earlier this evening. If you look, there's a short wave that wants to hang off that cold front coming down into the panhandle and I think something is trying to spin up down there.
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Quoting Abacosurf:
Anyone notice the low pressure that the GFS forms right around Pensacola in the next 12-18 hours.

Looks like starter for the engine.


This one?


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Quoting doorman79:


Cause when you get really mad you look like a catfish:)

.______________.

see! lol


LOL!
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1582. IKE
No hurricane on this GFS run. Looking like the ECMWF more and more....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Hi Orca! Good to see you --- been golfing today?
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1580. xcool
rain maker for fl
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
EarthD....sorry.
You were blessed to have him as long as you did.
My dad passed when I was 26.


Thanks Kori

You are correct. I was lucky enough to have him mentor me well in to adulthood. He was "the Man"
over 1000 people showed up to the view including Arnold Palmer. It was a celebration of the life he lived not the life he lost.
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1578. xcool
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I'm thinking this GFS run will have "Nicole" clip south FL and take it out to sea.


Wrong lol
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1576. xcool
now gfs maker sense,
justing like ECMWF
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I sure hope future nicole won't be like a system like fay from 2008.
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nite doorman.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Thanks Zoo and Door... Im getting through... Keeping a close eye on my mom. They were married for 56 years.. There is a certain amount of expectation of you parents passing away but your spouse is a totally different cross to bare.


yes. sorry to hear it. sent up a prayer for you and your loved ones.
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Quoting xcool:


lows lows


Shifted left again from last night. Back over western Cuba instead of the mountains in the east.
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Quoting FloridaCaster:


How did you know? WOW, I'm impressed, haz aprendido, mijo.


Cause when you get really mad you look like a catfish:)

.______________.

see! lol
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I sure hope future nicole want by like a system like fay from 2008.
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Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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wow, skypony. that must have just happened - the tornado
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EarthD....sorry.
You were blessed to have him as long as you did.
My dad passed when I was 26.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Thanks Zoo and Door... Im getting through... Keeping a close eye on my mom. They were married for 56 years.. There is a certain amount of expectation of you parents passing away but your spouse is a totally different cross to bare.


Very sorry to hear your loss. I know the pain of loss all too well.

My heart and thoughts go out to you and your mother, and you guys have my deepest condolences.
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Ok

I'm out folks.

Peace
Link


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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.