Matthew drenching Central America and Mexico
Tropical Storm Matthew continues to dump heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and neighboring regions of Mexico today. Puerto Barrios, in northern Guatemala, has received 4.57" of rain in the past 24 hours. With Matthew expected to slow down and dissipate by Sunday, the storm's heavy rains of 6 - 15 inches can be expected to cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. The rains are of particular concern for Guatemala, which suffered its rainiest August in its history, followed by the landfall of Tropical Depression 11E during the first week of September, which dumped torrential rains on the country that triggered flooding and mudslides that killed at least 48 Guatemalans.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken yesterday, showing Tropical Storm Matthew approaching landfall.
Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for the 5-day period beginning at 2am EDT today (Saturday, September 25) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT (6Z) run of the GFDL. Very heavy rains in excess of eight inches (yellow colors) are predicted for portions of Central America along Matthew's track. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa pulled a bit of a surprise last night, intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds in the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa's longitude of 27.9W at the time made it the 10th strongest hurricane so far east in the Atlantic. Record keeping began in 1851, but it is likely that many hurricanes stronger than Lisa were missed prior to the advent of reliable satellite coverage in 1974. Lisa is even farther east than Category 4 Hurricane Julia, which earlier this month set the record for strongest hurricane ever recorded so far east. Lisa's glory will be short-lived, though, as strong upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase tonight, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over the storm. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.
Forecast for the rest of the tropics
Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.
I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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That is dreadful. And lord knows Guatemala doesn't need more flooding, either.
Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, September 25th, with Video
No. This is shaping up to be a real disaster down there. The footage TWC showed looked bad enough and it's far from over.
RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 88.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
Is this a surface circulation south of Haiti ?
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MATTHEW HAS
WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST. MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
MATTHEW FARTHER INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND MATTHEW
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
Hi Levi. Thanks. I'll go over and take a look.
1:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 25
Location: 16.7°N 88.6°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Who is going to fund all of this in your plan? This country doesn't have enough money for its own citizens, let alone for another population entirely.
Since the quake, more than a billion dollars has been sent in aid to Haiti, and still, many organizations are sending money and supplies.. What I mean, is that instead of having spent so much money in daily consumed supplies, that are already gone, they should have used some portion in that kind of help.... that stays there supplying them water and shelter
000
ABNT20 KNHC 251746
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 540 MILES
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW...LOCATED INLAND OVER
BELIZE ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Hi Levi. Another great explanation. Thank you, enjoy your weekend!
Thanks :)
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251751
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 25 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SOME
ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Good plots from LSU.
Nobody can answer that question, because we do not know. Some models take it over the Western Caribbean, where the highest TCHP resides, before taking it north. That, combined with low shear and little Dry Air, would let it intensifiy quite rapidly if other conditions allowed it.
Levi, how is the shear and Dry air forecast looking?
The TWO dosen't get much love when there are tropical cyclones out...LOL!
Hahaha! Perfect!
But I'm talking about Julia, not Lisa ;)
Julia, not Lisa.
Depends on the trough, but both will likely be limiting factors to some extent if the storm comes up into the Gulf of Mexico.
NHC must not think so, they just deactived Julia about 45 minutes ago.
invest_DEACTIVATE_al122010.ren 25-Sep-2010 17:14 16K
Ummm Julia... Julia is dead isn't it.
BTW, go mow the lawn.. this is the last sun until Thursday... while you at it..go do mine..I am at work :)
I'm 19, I don't own a lawn yet, besides I'm on vacation mode right now, you can do your own lawn it'll be good for you :)
Ah, ok Levi pointed out the remnants of Julia aand saw they were heading southwest and she still has a tight and well defined circulation. Looks to me all she needs is some convection going, but NHC knows more then me, so I'll just take that as a no way it can't happen type scenario.
What is ex-Karen? I thought the k storm was Karl this year? Just Curious.
Sheesh... hmm 5 bucks? Its a small lawn.
According to Ed, we are going to get very wet in the next few days.
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