Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.

Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.

Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)

Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)

Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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1751. caneswatch 12:53 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: by saying RIP too 96L am helping it too get stronger so RIP RIP RIP RIP too are little 96L now that am saying that it will get stronger Oh, I see where you're going. Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1752. FSUstormnut 12:53 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
the low is listed at 1003 on the nhc website.. Member Since: June 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 314

1753. NRAamy 12:53 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Come again? What's wrong with carpet?

1754. help4u 12:53 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Taz looks like season is done,cold air moving in. Member Since: September 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1072

1755. ShenValleyFlyFish 12:54 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Down east? Ya can't get thayuh from heeuh. Might be fairly easy to figure out if you are in a canoe with a load of furs. When I was growing up you always went down to DC which was to the ENE. But if you followed the rivers you wound up there. Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

1756. Orcasystems 12:54 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting pottery: Ha!! Dont try that... You are just envious of our cheerful weather right now..... heheheh. Actually, I was looking at that area, and thinking "it's gon' fizzle out before it gets here". But I have been 'wishfully thinking' for a couple of weeks. I have been tracking those TWO since the left Africa... they getting stronger everyday. Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

1757. Jedkins01 12:54 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: by saying RIP too 96L am helping it too get stronger so RIP RIP RIP RIP too are little 96L now that am saying that it will get stronger what really? You know superstition isn't real right? Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333

1759. xcool 12:55 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
i stay on north shore .wwltv.com Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

1760. Dakster 12:55 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting Grothar: Then can you tell me why the University of South Florida is in Tampa? LOL Because it has to be further North than the University of Central Florida. Didn't you know the further North you go in Florida the further towards "the South" you go. Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4938

1761. FloorManBroward 12:56 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Did I hear carpet installer? Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 61

1762. HurricaneHunterJoe 12:56 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2690

1764. Tazmanian 12:57 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
i now call it happy RIP 96L day YAY RIP 96L is it geting stronger yet? Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

1766. CaptnDan142 12:58 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: i now call it happy RIP 96L day YAY RIP 96L is it geting stronger yet? Oh yeah - stronger by the minute Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856

1767. cocoabeachcane 12:58 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting fldude99: I would include Naples, FT Myers and the SW coast as South FL That's SW FL not South Florida. Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 19

1768. Ron5244 12:58 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting Dakster: Because it has to be further North than the University of Central Florida. Didn't you know the further North you go in Florida the further towards "the South" you go. Haha, so true. Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671

1769. BioChemist 12:58 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting Dakster: Sounds about right to me... SW Florida would be Naples, Ft. Meyers, Marco Island. Panhandle is also "Lower Alabama" SW florida includes Sarasota, Charolette, Lee, Collier, Desoto, Glades, and Hendry.. mainland Monroe Manatee is kindof on the border in between Central and South West Florida Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 135

1770. CyclonicVoyage 12:59 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting FSUstormnut: the low is listed at 1003 on the nhc website.. Just coming in to post the 1003mb low in the NW Caribbean. Click the fronts tab and speed it up. Slowly organizing ATM. Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

1771. pottery 12:59 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems: I have been tracking those TWO* since the left Africa... they getting stronger everyday.* Really?? I have been away since Friday... so I am Blissfully Unaware... will need to pay more attention to that. How is your weather? Good for Golf? Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

1772. Tazmanian 12:59 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
by the way can any one get on too facebook? Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

1773. GoodOleBudSir 12:59 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
To all you Tampa folks: Had a great visit to your city this weekend. Got to see a great football game and the weather was beautiful. Love the city! Member Since: July 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 261

1774. hurricanecrab 12:59 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Looks like Jamaica is likely to get a pounding; bad news with the mountain mudslides. Member Since: January 20, 2005 Posts: 63 Comments: 9167

1775. Orcasystems 1:02 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Down east? Ya can't get thayuh from heeuh. OK, I would normally never ever do this... but I am going to post a link that you have to see... Its made for people from the North.. or due west or whatever... of South Carolina... DO NOT be drinking by your monitor as you watch this. You Bet Your Life - Definitely From the South Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

1777. JupiterFL 1:02 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting GoodOleBudSir: To all you Tampa folks: Had a great visit to your city this weekend. Got to see a great football game and the weather was beautiful. Love the city! As a Steelers fan it was easy to love Tampa this weekend! Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146

1778. CybrTeddy 1:03 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting NavarreMark: If 96L continues to develop and goes up the west coast of FL with the right front quadrant skirting Tampa Bay as a strong TS. How much storm surge could be expected. 1 foot? 3 feet? 5 feet? The reason I am asking is that people on low ground need to know. They may need to evacuate, even if only to camp out on high ground for a day or two. Easy there, first we need an actual storm first! Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

1779. JRRP 1:03 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: by saying RIP too 96L am helping it too get stronger so RIP RIP RIP RIP too are little 96L now that am saying that it will get stronger lol Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4315

1780. ackee 1:04 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting hurricanecrab: Looks like Jamaica is likely to get a pounding; bad news with the mountain mudslides. Jamaica is currently under a flash flood warning until 5AM Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1194

1781. CyclonicVoyage 1:04 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Wind shear is 10kts over the COC, we could see some pretty modest strengthening overnight. Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

1784. weatherbro 1:04 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting leo305: no cold fronts expected to drop into central or south florida until well into October.. According to model consensus we do have one comin' by early to mid next week... Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1155

1786. PcolaDan 1:05 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting NRAamy: Come again? What's wrong with carpet? Not the "in" thing any more. Don't you watch HGTV? Must be hardwood floors (which scratch) granite counter tops (which require sealing periodically or they absorb liquids) and stainless steal appliances (which show fingerprints horribly and aren't magnetic). Otherwise the house is only fit for a third world country. Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

1787. TropicThunder 1:05 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Does anyone here know why there is no floater on 96L?? Member Since: August 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5

1788. hydrus 1:05 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
In this model the Cayman Islands get hammered pretty good. It basically forms right on top of them..Link Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

1789. CaptnDan142 1:06 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting NavarreMark: The reason I am asking is that people on low ground need to know. They may need to evacuate, even if only to camp out on high ground for a day or two. Given that scenario... I suspect that people who need to know will find out from a reliable source. Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856

1793. hydrus 1:07 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting TropicThunder: Does anyone here know why there is no floater on 96L?? See if this can help...Link Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

1794. HurricaneHunterJoe 1:08 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2690

1795. CaptnDan142 1:09 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting pilotguy1: Ah ah I think you are on to something. We need a storm first. Well, if you wanna get all technical and nit-picky about it.... ;-) Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856

1796. TropicThunder 1:09 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting weatherbro: According to model consensus we do... From NWS Melbourne AFD 347PM EDT.... ...THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL FOCUS ON THE MENAGERIE OF BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SEA BREEZE AND ONGOING ACTIVITY...WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SEA BREEZE AND THE FRONTAL PRECIP BAND BECOMING DOMINANT LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO AND POINTS NORTH. WITH THE CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY SWINGING ACROSS AL/MS AND THE FAR WEST FL PANHANDLE...FRONT SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. Member Since: August 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5

1798. mbinmo 1:10 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting anyotherliestotell: you haven't evacuated yet? ooo kay. Hey i got 1 for you i say the sun will come up in the east, what do you say? Member Since: April 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 13

1799. sunlinepr 1:11 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

1800. doorman79 1:11 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting NRAamy: Come again? What's wrong with carpet? I've heard of carpet burns? Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895

1801. breald 1:11 AM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems: OK, I would normally never ever do this... but I am going to post a link that you have to see... Its made for people from the North.. or due west or whatever... of South Carolina... DO NOT be drinking by your monitor as you watch this. You Bet Your Life - Definitely From the South OMG...This is funny. Bless her heart. Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5298

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