Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

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Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010

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it seen like 96L is moveing WNW out too sea and pulling that little Bold a long with it and weaking it so tha big round ball may be are main game
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Quoting smartinwx:
if the ex-Julia reforms, does it regain the name Julia, or will it get a different name? who decides that?


As they've tagged the disturbance as the remnants of Julia, then it would re-assume the name of Julia, yep.
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Quoting unf97:


Oh I am well aware of that Patrap. I reasd the AFDs all the time. I was thanking you for posting it for me on the blog as I was waiting for the Jax NWS forceast office to release that this afternoon.


I know..I was posting it for members who arent aware,,

Theres a lot more to the wunderground than just the Blogs.
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This years Hurricane Season is extremely active, not boring at all. We had storms that broke records, 5 majors and still counting, 7 storms in September.. We are currently dealing with a hyper-active Hurricane Season because of the outbreak of storms we had this month. It's been busy, certainly not boring.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Can Someone Be Kind Enough to Give me a Quick Summary of What has Happened with 96L Today?

And do the models still predict Nicole into florida?

12Z GFS shows 96L/Nichole into extreme south Florida later this week. My guess is as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane.
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I can't believe they don't have a floater up on 96L yet...
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if the ex-Julia reforms, does it regain the name Julia, or will it get a different name? who decides that?
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Yes that is what will likely happen. Old Matthew will follow the new Invest. I doubt either will ever make it past TS status as the fight for the better spin will keep both in check.


GFS was, for several days last week, showing a variety of interactions between Matthew/Matthew's remains and 96L/Nichole. The common ones were Matthew and 96L/Nichole having a Fujiwara interaction, sending Matthew from the BOC back into Mexico and Nichole north into Cuba before typically turning more to the NNE, as well as runs that showed Matthew ingesting Nichole or Nichole ingesting Matthew. Recently, however, I have not noticed much in the way of interaction between these systems.
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dont underestimate the power of nature. s calif might get alittle bit too with an el nino building this winter.
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903. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:





and do you even no what your are talking about?


Don't be rude Taz, what he said made perfect sense.
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Quoting Tazmanian:





and do you even no what your are talking about?


I know enough.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




but look how fast LA Nino came


it's LA NINA
and EL NINO

sorry, just was bothering me... carry on! :-)
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Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:
How are the schools in Florida? Would they cancel a day or two of school due to soon to be Nicole? I know up here in New York my son gets snow days and stuff like that.


If winds go over 40 mph, yes, schools will shut down for a day, more depending on the situations.
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Looks like the big blob is moving east might go under FL
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


So for your 4th post this is the quality of information that you bring to the blog.


Like I said before, it was just an observation. I'm probably wrong, who's to say...
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_300s.gif

huricane otto se fl hmmm
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Quoting xcool:
next years hurricane season very very active nott like this year boring jmo


LOL.....i won't use the word boring, but yes next year will be worse than this year. I said that at the beginning of this years season on my 2010 Outlook and explained why.
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894. unf97
Quoting Patrap:


One can find the Local NWS on ones Local NWS Page under the 5 day Forecast..


Scientific Forecaster Discussion (NWS)

Jacksonville, Florida


Oh I am well aware of that Patrap. I reasd the AFDs all the time. I was thanking you for posting it for me on the blog as I was waiting for the Jax NWS forceast office to release that this afternoon.
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Quoting Tazmanian:





and do you even no what your are talking about?


Seems like he knows what he's talking about to me.
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Quoting chrisdscane:
not wishcasting but with all that warm water can 96l turn into a cane and affect fl?



yes vary high ch
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not wishcasting but with all that warm water can 96l turn into a cane and affect fl?
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Quoting Cotillion:
Taz, we're a considerable distance from any El Nino. Just because the La Nina may have peaked or just temporarily weakening before strengthening again doesn't mean we're going to swing into El Nino.

Cold PDOs make El Ninos rarer. We'll be seeing less of them in the next 20-30 years.

There's also never been a case of Nino-Nina-Nino or Nina-Nino-Nina in a single year.





and do you even no what your are talking about?
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Quoting duajones78413:
what are the possibilities for ex Matthew?


Very likely. I have been saying that for days. The BAM models even if one does not like them has been on top of this very well.
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


Agreed. Like the posts last week that were talking about Nicole, Otto, and Paula. Totally ridiculous.


If you are obviously talking about long-range forecasts showing those storms, it is not ridiculous. If, however, you state they already exist when they clearly don't, then, yes, ridiculous.
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886. jiggy
Quoting CaribbeanStorm:


True, true, maybe the Hermitage Dam and the Mona Reservoir have not seen water like this in a long time. Still we have to worry about the possible damage due to flooding...what with this fragile economy of ours.
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885. unf97
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
thank u for the great info unf97


You are welcome. You live in Jax as well?
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Quoting Jax82:
everyone loves a loop

Agreed!!
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Quoting unf97:


Just as I responded to someone asking my thoughts about what could happen here in Jax, Patrap you just posted the AFD from the NWS in my area. LOL. That was excellent timing. Thanks for posting that. That was something I was waiting for to come out. They are also banking on the 96L/Nicole and the major effects to just miss this area to the east. But, like I said in my post just below that any shifts to the left and the Jax area definitely will be more under the gun for sure.


One can find the Local NWS on ones Local NWS Page under the 5 day Forecast..


Scientific Forecaster Discussion (NWS)

Jacksonville, Florida
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Quoting NOLALawyer:


Damn, could Matthew develop back up behind Nicole?

What is our Doomcon Status now? Are we at Doomcon 2?


Yes that is what will likely happen. Old Matthew will follow the new Invest. I doubt either will ever make it past TS status as the fight for the better spin will keep both in check.
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Quoting winter123:

If the XTRAP movement is due north, why do those two models initialize to the ESE? I think we can toss those.



XTRAP is NOT a model, just an extension of the current movement.

The initialization to the ESE reflects where those other models feel ultimate formation of the TC will progress.


Anthony
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


Agreed. Like the posts last week that were talking about Nicole, Otto, and Paula. Totally ridiculous.

OMG...We have Nichole???? Tell me it's not so..Kidding..just wondered who would slip first
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Taz, we're a considerable distance from any El Nino. Just because the La Nina may have peaked or just temporarily weakening before strengthening again doesn't mean we're going to swing into El Nino.

Cold PDOs make El Ninos rarer. We'll be seeing less of them in the next 20-30 years.

There's also never been a case of Nino-Nina-Nino or Nina-Nino-Nina in a single year.
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what are the possibilities for ex Matthew?
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Quoting xcool:
next years hurricane season very very active nott like this year boring jmo
you said the "B" word X
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


no we have 96L

I have issues with posts like these, people who lurk may take them seriously and think we have a named storm, when we do not


Agreed. Like the posts last week that were talking about Nicole, Otto, and Paula. Totally ridiculous.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
Quoting smartinwx:


Was there a special advisory on Nichole? I'm not seeing it on the NHC site




there is no nichole!
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873. xcool
next years hurricane season very very active nott like this year boring jmo
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Quoting JLPR2:


that would put us at 8 named storms for September, right?
If so, September 2010 was pretty active.



last time we did that was back in 2007
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thank u for the great info unf97
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Quoting lickitysplit:
Whoa! Looks like we have nichole!


Was there a special advisory on Nichole? I'm not seeing it on the NHC site
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Quoting TampaSpin:
OLD MATTHEW IS now making its loop back also.....WOW!


Damn, could Matthew develop back up behind Nicole?

What is our Doomcon Status now? Are we at Doomcon 2?
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868. JLPR2
Quoting reedzone:
13-7-5 ... Should go to 14 by either tomorrow or Wednesday :)


that would put us at 8 named storms for September, right?
If so, September 2010 was pretty active.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


We are a very long way away from El Nino, I doubt its forming




but look how fast LA Nino came
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I expect to see quite a show overnight.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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