Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.

Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.

Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)

Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)

Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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252. belizewunderfan 2:46 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
No spaghetti models for the system in the western Caribbean yet?? Our National Emergency Management Org. did great and we survivied Matthew without major problems.

254. weatherboyfsu 2:47 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
King, Ive been here that long as well.... Go play somewhere else..... ;-) Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

255. hydrus 2:47 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
The Western Caribbean has eyes.....And a lot of moisture. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

256. pussinboots 2:48 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
"...saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five hurricanes..." Do you mean five major hurricanes? Jason Member Since: February 11, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 3

259. weatherboyfsu 2:51 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Until the shear actually hits it, not a prob... Obvisiously the NHC doesnt think that the shear is going to stop the development because they are sending the plane..... I do believe they have the lastest technology, models and such.... And when you have a potential storm developing that close to MIAMI, you cant afford to take chances.... Storms have been known to fire up quick within 24 hours... so I think that it is a prudent thing to do! Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

262. CosmicEvents 2:52 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Good morning all. What's up? Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5099

264. weatherboyfsu 2:52 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Its about 120 miles off the coast..... Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

267. CyclonicVoyage 2:53 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Surely see the atmosphere starting to wrap up. RAMSDIS FLOATER 60% Depression / 40% Nicole, IMO at the moment. Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

268. weatherboyfsu 2:54 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Its very close to 85 long and 20 lat Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

269. weatherboyfsu 2:55 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
That could be true but this is over 88 degree water with no shear at the moment.... Matthew is still over land.... Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

271. nrtiwlnvragn 2:55 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Recent 12Z surface map shows new low south of Cuba Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8937

272. Chicklit 2:55 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
850 mb vorticity strengthening since coupla hours ago. Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

273. TOMSEFLA 2:56 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Quoting TOMSEFLA: i have watch the last three computer runs and it showes the energy with the systems in the nw carb are located more to the east with each run.if this comes to pass then most of the energy rainfall winds will be to the east of se florida when the main systems pass. this is a good sign for them. has everone noticed the same thing? Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 234

275. CitikatzSouthFL 2:56 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Quoting barotropic: Recons on its way, you should go. Maybe you could hold on to the dropsonde while its falling so you could relay the info to the blog. Agreed!! Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 293

278. WxLogic 2:57 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: Recent 12Z surface map shows new low south of Cuba We should see % going up soon. Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4667

279. weatherboyfsu 2:57 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
I believe we will have a depression by 5pm in that area, if not sooner.... time will tell Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

280. HurricaneGeek 2:57 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Which blob would be 96L/Nicole? The one at 20N 85W or, the one to the SE of that? Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

281. lilElla 2:58 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Quoting Patrap: Threat of levee failure prompts evacuations along Wisconsin River Authorities in Portage, Wisconsin, worked Sunday to evacuate residents as a levee along the Wisconsin River approached imminent failure after heavy rainfall soaked the Midwest last week. An alert sent out by Columbia County Emergency Management on Sunday urged residents near Blackhawk Park to evacuate immediately ahead of the flooding, which is expected to wash out a main road leading to about 150 residences. "Emergency vehicles including police, fire and EMS will not be able to reach residents," the statement said. Good Morning Pat! This is the 3rd time this year that this area has flooded, but this is the first time in many years that the water has gotten this high. The latest I've heard this morning was that the levee (actually a dike) was barely holding. I live about 2 miles from the Wisconsin River and about 20 miles (by river) south of the evacuation area. It is definetly out of it's banks around the Sauk Prarie area with lowland/farm field flooding! Kids were swimming in a parking lot last night. Robyn Member Since: December 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 251

282. CosmicEvents 2:58 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Quoting weatherboyfsu: I believe we will have a depression by 5pm in that area, if not sooner.... time will tell My guess would be TD at 11. Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5099

283. CyclonicVoyage 2:58 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Quoting WxLogic: We should see % going up soon. Agree there, the area is organizing at rather fresh pace. Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

285. HurricaneGeek 2:59 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
I'm going with 50% for the 2 pm TWO. Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

286. 7544 2:59 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
make it a invest already scehhhh Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

287. CyclonicVoyage 2:59 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Quoting HurricaneGeek: Which blob would be 96L/Nicole? The one at 20N 85W or, the one to the SE of that? The one SW of Cuba. Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

288. weatherboyfsu 2:59 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
I do believe that the miami area is going to get this if it does develop. We need the rain up here in central florida, but it doesnt look like thats going to happen. Really too close to call.... And it could miss the state all together.... Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

289. HurricaneGeek 3:00 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Quoting HurricaneGeek: I'm going with 50% for the 2 pm TWO. But that really depends on what RECON finds. So maybe yes maybe no. Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

291. PSLFLCaneVet 3:00 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Quoting CosmicEvents: My guess would be TD at 11. You can't collect on your own ref. LOL Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

293. HurricaneGeek 3:00 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Quoting CyclonicVoyage: The one SW of Cuba. OK I see thanks. Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

294. CyclonicVoyage 3:00 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Quoting 7544: make it a invest already scehhhh May not see an invest out of this one. IMO, recon is on the way to see if a depression has formed. Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

295. 7544 3:02 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Quoting CyclonicVoyage: May not see an invest out of this one. IMO, recon is on the way to see if a depression has formed. agree looks like on now hmmmm Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

296. nrtiwlnvragn 3:02 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Don't think this afternoon's recon is flying. They were scheduled for takeoff at 10:30AM EDT and there has been no data posted....yet. Now as soon as I post this data should start..... Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8937

297. weatherboyfsu 3:02 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
So.. King what was your name back in the day? If its a secret, email me.... Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

298. HurricaneGeek 3:03 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Quoting CyclonicVoyage: May not see an invest out of this one. IMO, recon is on the way to see if a depression has formed. Just asking, how do you know RECON is on the way? According to the NHC page it's set for 18z (2pm Eastern Time). Thanks. Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

301. RotorYacht 3:04 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Not a MET but I bet the one to the East will take the prize and consume the other for lunch. Just a thought. Quoting 7544: 2 nice blobs who will it be blob one to the north or blob 2 to the south will they become one stay tuned the n name is waiting Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 57

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