Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

TD 16 organizing; Mexican landslide kills hundreds; hottest day ever in Los Angeles

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:25 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

The large area of low pressure centered just south of Cuba's Isle of Youth has developed enough of a well-defined circulation to be classified as Tropical Depression Sixteen, and is likely to become Tropical Storm Nicole by Wednesday. The depression has a very broad center, with little heavy thunderstorm activity near the center, and is this very dissimilar to the usual types of tropical depressions we see in the Atlantic. The large size, broad center, and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of TD 16 will limit the storm's ability to rapidly intensify. TD 16 resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. Today's monsoon-like depression in the Caribbean was able to form because the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). This unusual flow pattern is forecast to remain in place for at least the next ten days.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been flying at 700 feet in TD 16 since 1:30pm EDT, and has thus far found a central pressure of 999 mb. The strongest winds at flight level seen as of 3:20pm EDT were 32 mph, located about 100 miles east of the center of TD 16. Surface observations show that the strongest winds at any surface station continue to be at Buoy 42057, several hundred miles to the southeast of TD 16's center. Winds were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph at 2:43pm EDT this afternoon. Rotation of TD 16 can be seen on radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba, and well as satellite imagery. The heavy thunderstorms are currently quite disorganized, but a curved band is beginning to wrap around the north side of the center, signaling that TD 16 is growing more organized. TD 16 has brought torrential rains to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Honduras today.

Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida and Cuba. TD 16 has brought 2 - 4 inches of rains to the region.

Forecast for TD 16
Because TD 16 is so large, it will take more time than a typical depression for it to spin up into a strong tropical storm. Given that the steering currents are expected to pull TD 16 north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the western Bahamas on Wednesday, the storm lacks sufficient time over water to be any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm for Florida. TD 16 is organizing pretty slowly this afternoon, and I think the top winds in Southeast Florida are most likely to be in the 25 - 35 mph range on Wednesday. Winds are likely to be stronger in the western Bahamas, perhaps 30 - 40 mph, since they will be in the stronger right front quadrant of the storm. By the time TD 16 makes landfall in South Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday morning, it could be as strong as a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm. However, wind shear will increase sharply on Thursday as TD 16 gets caught in an upper-level trough of low pressure, and NHC is giving TD 16 only a 9% chance of making it to hurricane strength before it becomes an extratropical storm on Thursday. The primary danger from TD 16 is not wind, but heavy rainfall. A potent upper-level low and stationary front over the U.S. East Coast have been pulling moist, tropical air from the Caribbean northwards over the past few days, bringing heavy rains that have saturated the soils. This is called a Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE, since it comes in advance of the actual rain shield of the storm. (A PRE from Hurricane Karl brought southern Wisconsin the heavy rain that caused the levee on the Wisconsin River to fail yesterday.) Wilmington, NC received 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its second greatest one-day rainfall since record keeping began in 1871. Only the 13.38" that fell during Hurricane Floyd on September 15, 1999 beat yesterday's rainfall total. With TD 16 expected to bring another 6 - 8 inches of rain to the region later this week, serious flooding is likely, and flash flood watches are posted for the North Carolina/ South Carolina border region. South Florida is also under a flood watch, for 3 - 5 inches of rain. Flooding rains of similar magnitude can also be expected in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Western Bahamas through Wednesday night. Both the GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that TD 16 will dump rains in excess of eight inches along narrow portions of its path in eastern Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

Figure 2. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Sunday, October 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Up to 1,000 feared dead in Mexican landslide
Mexico has taken the brunt of the devastation from the hurricane season of 2010, thanks to the landfalls of this year's two deadliest and most damaging storms, Hurricanes Alex and Karl. But Mexico's worst blow yet hit this morning, when heavy rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew triggered a landslide in Mexico's mountainous Oaxaca state that buried as many as 1,000 people in Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec, a town of 9,000. Rescuers have not reached the area yet, but hundreds are feared dead in the 300 homes that were buried by the early morning landslide. Matthew hit Belize on Saturday as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, and dissipated Sunday over southern Mexico. However, Matthew's remains stalled out over the region of Mexico that had already received torrential rains from Hurricane Karl, which hit on September 18. Satellite estimates of Matthew's rains over southern Mexico (Figure 3) show that a foot of rain may have fallen in the landslide area. Matthew's remains still linger over the region, but are probably only capable of bringing 1 - 2 inches of additional rain through Thursday.

Figure 3. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the five-day period ending at 8pm EDT Monday September 27, 2010. The dark green colors show where rainfall amounts of 300 mm (about 12 inches) fell, due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Once TD 16 moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS model predicts that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression early next week. The GFS also predicts a tropical or subtropical storm will form over the Bahamas late this week, and move north-northeast along the U.S. East Coast, missing hitting land. The NOGAPS model hints at the Bahamas storm, and also predicts development of a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, about a week from now.

Hottest day in Los Angeles history
The mercury hit a blistering 113°F (45.0°C) at 12:15 pm PDT yesterday in downtown Los Angeles, making it the hottest day in Los Angeles history. It may have gotten hotter, but the thermometer broke shortly after the record high was set. The previous record in Los Angeles was 112°F set on June 26, 1990; records go back to 1877. Nearby Long Beach tied its hottest all-time temperature yesterday, with a scorching 111°F. And Christopher C. Burt, our new featured blogger on weather records, pointed out to me that a station in the foothills at 1260' elevation near Beverly Hills owned by the Los Angeles Fire Department hit 119°F yesterday--the hottest temperature ever measured in the Los Angeles area, tying the 119°F reading from Woodland Hills on July 22, 2006. Yesterday's record heat was caused by an unusually large and intense upper-level high pressure system centered over Nevada that generated winds blowing from the land to the ocean, keeping the ocean from exerting its usual cooling influence. Remarkably, Los Angeles had its second coldest summer on record this year, and temperatures just five days ago were some the coldest September temperatures in the region for the past 50 years.

The remarkable summer of 2010
Wunderground is pleased to welcome a new featured blogger--weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris is a leading expert in the U.S. on weather records, and is author of the world's most popular weather records book published to date, Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book. He's spent a lifetime collaborating with like-minded individuals from around the world, and no one--including official sources such as the National Climatic Data Center and the National Extremes Committee--has done as thorough a job correlating the various weather records available and determining the most accurate extreme values of such. Each month he'll be reporting on the notable records for heat, cold, and precipitation set world-wide, and his first post takes a look at the remarkable summer of 2010. It's great to have someone like Chris who stays on top of weather extremes, and I hope you'll pay a visit to his blog and welcome him to the wunderground site!

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll have updates as the situation with TD 16 requires.

Jeff Masters

Alone again, naturally (ftogrf)

Lonely Seagull, as a storm associated with TD 16 is approaching.

Categories: Hurricane

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1051 - 1101

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 — Blog Index

1051. presslord 11:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
it's startin' to roll in from offshore... Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

1052. MiamiHurricanes09 11:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
000 ABNT20 KNHC 282347 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN...LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT 1210 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1053. K8eCane 11:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting myrtle1: press save me alittle rain here in myrtle beach piz! was down there Saturday night....went to Legends In Concert Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2369

1054. TOMSEFLA 11:53 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
reformation good news this may keep all if not most of the heavy weather off the se fla coast....go news

1056. TOMSEFLA 11:53 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
reformation good news this may keep all if not most of the heavy weather off the se fla coast....go news

1057. spathy 11:53 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting pilotguy1: Try spelling Caloosahatchee and then pronouncing it. River by our house. Hi neighbor:0) Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10475

1058. avthunder 11:53 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting whepton3: What is the feeling about 96L picking up intensity between Cuba and S. FL... I'm a total novice at this and can't interpret the data. I was wondering the same thing. Need to make some decisions about tomorrow in South East Palm Beach County. Member Since: August 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 245

1059. CaptnDan142 11:53 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: Wow you must have missed what the model said completely, only 1 or 2 runs did that it nailed the development of Matthew and this system in the long range, the other systems it has formed; we are yet to that timeline to see if it varifies Yes, it nailed Matthew. How many did it predict that didn't happen? I'm not only referring to those few runs. It has shown waaaay more storms than we have seen. Unless one is employing selective memory, that cannot be denied. Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856

1061. myrtle1 11:54 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
they put on a great show Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30

1062. ChillinInTheKeys 11:54 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Key West, 29.58 in (Falling). Big Pine Key, 29.45 in (Falling). Plantation Key, 29.57 in (Falling) Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 448

1063. ElConando 11:54 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting weatherman12345: heyy i can dream cant i I remember those days of hoping but I usually knew when school was in or out fairly logically. There is no shot of it being closed just go to school and enjoy the fact that you won't be inside your home board out of your mind. My parents had a rule only in effect during tropical systems. All "storm days" I was not allowed to play with my friends. Since it was usually 2 days it was not the end of the world. They made an exception with Katrina and Wilma. I am happy they stopped when I was 16 though. Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

1064. StAugustineWatcher 11:54 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Thunderstorms here with steady downpour as the front leaves us. Local met calls for Nor'easter conditions tomorrow Member Since: September 6, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 53

1066. Stats56 11:55 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting Levi32: I know we are already dealing with a storm and there's lots going on, but keep an eye on this sneaky devil in the central Atlantic. It means trouble for the southeast US down the road, possibly bigger trouble than Nicole Spot on the money, imho, as always. Definetly worth watching. Thanks for your efforts. Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 67

1067. AnthonyJKenn 11:55 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: ...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION RE-FORMS A LITTLE TO THE EAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 82.0W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES Does that mean that we will finally have TS Nicole by the 8PM advisory?? Or, will they wait until 11 PM?? Anthony Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 187

1068. ElConando 11:56 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting presslord: it's startin' to roll in from offshore... Quick question, do not take offense to it. Why are you posting again? Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

1069. portcharlotte 11:56 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Latest from Bastardi TUESDAY 6:30 PM WHAT???? How is it the pressure is listed at 999 mb for the depression, yet there are two stations on either side of the supposed center with 998 mb pressures? This is going to be an ugly storm, especially for N Carolina and the Va capes as far as wind... perhaps even up to New England, and inland sections from SC to Pa and to western New England. The european 10 meter wind gust chart, available on your pro site menu, has 50 kt gusts on the NC coast Thursday afternoon! The 66 hour has widespread 45 kt wind gusts Thursday night from The Delmarva to western and southern New England! That wind, coming from the south or southeast, would lead to power outages in these areas since the trees are loaded with leaves and lean into that wind.. While you and I can lean into the wind and perhaps fight it better, trees loaded with leaves act almost as a kite and they are easier to lift. The classic example was Tropical storm David in 1979.. with wind gusts about half as strong as Gloria in 1985, more tree damage was done in David than Gloria! Also on your pro site.. European precip amounts with a swath of heavy rains ( over 3 inches, and locally to 6) in the areas described above. The real problem here, and it may not be a problem at all, is what happens if the storm USES the upper feature to deepen it east of the southeast coast before landfall. The model assumption is the energy gets stretched out, but if this suddenly bundles and feeds back, we would get this to be a stronger TS for Florida and east of Florida. The influx of non tropical energy to the system would then deepen it initially and with the system moving north quickly, instead of that energy then burying the storm, it would allow it to intensify. Now let me be clear.. a stronger storm would get WEAKENED by the same set of conditions, because the conditions that made it strong in the first place would be changed... Its the argument I have made before about a 250 lb man being put on 2000 calorie diet.. he loses weight, but a 100 lb man ( weaker storm) put on a 2000 calorie diet may gain weight ( get stronger). The threat here is we are looking at a storm that could have gusts as high as hurricane force on the NC coast... no matter how the hatch it boys play it. I have a feeling that this is a fiasco in the making.. a storm of non tropical status.. from the tropics.. doing the most damage of the season.. so far.. Heh, its not like it hasnt happened before. This isnt north of the Azores with 71 degree water, you know. By the way.. if this gets named ( Nicole) I believe it will be the 2cnd highest total (14) , tied with 1995, for the end of September thanks for reading, ciao for now ** Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments:** 703

1070. ElConando 11:56 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting AnthonyJKenn: Does that mean that we will finally have TS Nicole by the 8PM advisory?? Or, will they wait until 11 PM?? Anthony No TS Nicole yet. Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

1071. largeeyes 11:57 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Wonder hwo long they wait for TS warnings on the NC/SC coast.... Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1380

1072. Patrap 11:57 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
..We dont need no education.. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111297

1073. JLPR2 11:57 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: 000 ABNT20 KNHC 282347 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN...LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT 1210 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN And the EURO agrees LOL! It says no show till it is almost at the Antilles. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1074. NCSaint 11:57 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: ...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION RE-FORMS A LITTLE TO THE EAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 82.0W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES The Little Cayman Research Bouy (LCIY2) recorded 998 mb at 5:26 EDT and falling. Hasn't updated since. Winds weren't all that impressive (14 kts gusting to 19) but it's getting the pressure drop Member Since: September 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 74

1075. CaptnDan142 11:57 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting AnthonyJKenn: Does that mean that we will finally have TS Nicole by the 8PM advisory?? Or, will they wait until 11 PM?? Anthony At 35mph? TD Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856

1076. Patrap 11:58 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
JB now on a Diet? Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111297

1077. WaterWitch11 11:58 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
LOS ANGELES (KTLA) -- More than 40,000 customers were left without power early Tuesday as Southern California's Fall heat wave brought record-breaking temperatures and electricity use. Another round of sizzling temperatures were forecast for Tuesday, however, it was not expected to get as hot as the day before. Southern California Edison says more than 27,000 of its customers were without power Tuesday morning, mainly in Orange and Los Angeles counties. Most were without power for more than 16 hours. The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power said another 15,000 customers were without power in Los Angeles. Several schools were also said to be closed Tuesday due to a lack of power. No deaths linked to the heat were reported, but coroner's investigators were trying to determine if the weather played a role in the death of award-winning film editor Sally Menke, 56, whose body was found Tuesday after she went hiking in Griffith Park the previous day. She worked on such movies as "Pulp Fiction," "Kill Bill" and "Jackie Brown." The Los Angeles Fire Department reported the heat may have contributed to a surge in calls requesting ambulances and other emergency responses, which were up 43 percent Monday over normal activity. The agency also had the highest amount of medical transports in its history. Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1266

1078. ChillinInTheKeys 11:58 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
We have been around or below 997 here in the Lower Keys for the last 4 hours. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 448

1079. TOMSEFLA 11:59 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
18z hmrf weak and defused

1080. nrtiwlnvragn 11:59 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
18Z GFDL and HWRF well inland at 48 hours. Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8922

1081. bcycsailor 11:59 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting CaptnDan142: Yes. A system of forecasting that is unique to the forecaster based upon previous observations, influenced sometimes by the content of their most recent meal. Thsi technique causes no harm to the forecaster, as opposed to and not to be confused with the highly scientific method, "goat-casting". Personally, I prefer the models developed through "squirrel-casting" but the method remains untested for some reason :) I'm wondering with the western jog in the track, if Pinellas County is just going to get squalls out of this system or if we should get that bimini and foresail down below...hmmm. Good evening btw. Member Since: June 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96

1082. ElConando 11:59 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting pilotguy1: Try spelling Caloosahatchee and then pronouncing it. River by our house. I figured the pronunciation in 20 seconds, I'm so proud of myself. Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

1083. spathy 12:00 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting pilotguy1: Cape SE 10th Place. WUMail:0) Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10475

1085. PSLFLCaneVet 12:01 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting Hoff511: Hey PSL! What do you expect for us? (in PSL) Hi. So far, since it's sheared and right-loaded, not more than blustery winds with some showers. The obligatory nod to, "if things don't change unexpectedly". Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

1086. CaptnDan142 12:02 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting bcycsailor: Personally, I prefer the models developed through "squirrel-casting" but the method remains untested for some reason :) I'm wondering with the western jog in the track, if Pinellas County is just going to get squalls out of this system or if we should get that bimini and foresail down below...hmmm. Good evening btw. Evenin' There was some discussion earlier about the westward trend - seemed to make sense. They were talking about the front pulling back. Personally, I could stand to have it remain right where it is for a while. This low humidity and cool temp thing is kinda nice. Haven't run the AC in over 24 hours now. Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856

1087. beell 12:03 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Call it what it is. Not a regular feature of the ATL Basin Season, but... Monsoon Depression: The term has gained ascendancy in use to refer to a broad tropical cyclonic circulation characterized by 1) its large size, where the outermost closed isobar may have a diameter on the order of 600 n mi (1000 km); 2) a loosely organized cluster of deep convective elements, which may form an elongated band of deep convection in the east semicircle; 3) a low- level wind distribution that features a 100 n mi (200 km) diameter light-wind core, which may be surrounded by a band of gales or contain a highly asymmetric wind field; and 4) a lack of a distinct cloud system center. Most monsoon depressions that develop in the western North Pacific eventually acquire persistent central convection and accelerated core winds, marking their transitions into conventional tropical cyclones... ...it has a similar structure as an Atlantic tropical depression, except its origin is within the monsoon trough, it is usually larger and it is strongest above the surface... Link Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12867

1088. aspectre 12:03 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
TropicalDepression16's center had reformed (7.5degrees east of) EastSouthEastward from its previous position Invest96L : NHC-ATCF 27Sep 12pmGMT - - 18.5n85.5w - - 25knots -- 1003mb - - NHC-ATCF 27Sep 06pmGMT - - 19.0n84.7w - - 25knots -- 1003mb - - NHC-ATCF 28Sep 12amGMT - - 19.4n84.1w - - 25knots -- 1003mb - - NHC-ATCF 28Sep 06amGMT - - 19.8n83.5w - - 30knots -- 1003mb - - NHC-ATCF 28Sep 12pmGMT - - 20.4n83.0w - - 30knots -- 1001mb - - NHC-ATCF 25knots=~28.8mph=46.3km/h __ 30knots=~34.5mph=~55.6km/h 96L becomes TD.16 28Sep 03pmGMT - - 20.6n82.5w - - 35mph - - - 1001mb - - NHC.Adv.#1 28Sep 06pmGMT - - 20.9n82.5w - - 35mph - - - 1000mb - - #1A 28Sep 09pmGMT - - 21.5n82.4w - - 35mph - - - - 999mb - - #2 29Sep 12amGMT - - 21.4n82.0w - - 35mph - - - - 997mb - - #2A 35mph=~56.4km/h Copy &paste 18.5n85.5w, 19.0n84.7w, 19.4n84.1w, 19.8n83.5w, 20.4n83.0w-20.6n82.5w, 20.6n82.5w-20.9n82.5w, 20.9n82.5w-21.5n82.4w, 21.5n82.4w-21.4n82.0w, ctm, hav, pot into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours. Member Since:* August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

1089. Patrap 12:03 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
NOAA TD-16 Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111297

1090. weatherguy03 12:04 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
I will tell everyone this, I believe the affects from Nicole will be worse for the Carolinas then Florida. Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

1091. severstorm 12:04 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 916

1092. weatherguy03 12:05 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting weatherguy03: I will tell everyone this, I believe the affects from Nicole will be worse for the Carolinas then Florida. And possibly up along the Mid-Atlantic coastline Northward. Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

1093. GrillinInTheEye 12:05 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Just an FYI, even though my children are out of the school system in Florida, they have neglected to take me off there email list and St. Lucie County schools are still open tomorrow. Sorry guys. Member Since: September 12, 2010 Posts: 70 Comments: 10816

1094. Patrap 12:05 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111297

1095. spathy 12:07 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting Patrap: ..We dont need no education.. I love a double negative. Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10475

1096. NCSaint 12:07 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting Patrap: NOAA TD-16 That track sucks for us in coastal NC. On top of the 8+ inches we got yesterday, we get to look forward to another 8+ inches when Nicole strolls by. Anyone have any estimates on potential storm surges for our south-facing beaches and inlets? Member Since: September 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 74

1098. bcycsailor 12:08 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting CaptnDan142: Evenin' There was some discussion earlier about the westward trend - seemed to make sense. They were talking about the front pulling back. Personally, I could stand to have it remain right where it is for a while. This low humidity and cool temp thing is kinda nice. Haven't run the AC in over 24 hours now. Well, we're up north right now enjoying the fall regalia, but all of our friends and neighbors are lovin' the lower temps/humidity down there. Looks to be a huge amount of rain for some though. Sheesh! Member Since: June 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96

1100. maeko 12:09 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting weatherguy03: I will tell everyone this, I believe the affects from Nicole will be worse for the Carolinas then Florida. the local authorities here in Charleston, SC seem to agree and have been aligning resources. Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 82

1101. weatherguy03 12:09 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane: As much as I hate to agree, I'm going to have to. We're still feeling the effects of the front this evening. It's gonna get a lot worse though... Didnt realize that JB thinks the same. I dont listen to nor like the guy..LOL Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

Viewing: 1051 - 1101

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters