TD 16 organizing; Mexican landslide kills hundreds; hottest day ever in Los Angeles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:25 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

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The large area of low pressure centered just south of Cuba's Isle of Youth has developed enough of a well-defined circulation to be classified as Tropical Depression Sixteen, and is likely to become Tropical Storm Nicole by Wednesday. The depression has a very broad center, with little heavy thunderstorm activity near the center, and is this very dissimilar to the usual types of tropical depressions we see in the Atlantic. The large size, broad center, and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of TD 16 will limit the storm's ability to rapidly intensify. TD 16 resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. Today's monsoon-like depression in the Caribbean was able to form because the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). This unusual flow pattern is forecast to remain in place for at least the next ten days.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been flying at 700 feet in TD 16 since 1:30pm EDT, and has thus far found a central pressure of 999 mb. The strongest winds at flight level seen as of 3:20pm EDT were 32 mph, located about 100 miles east of the center of TD 16. Surface observations show that the strongest winds at any surface station continue to be at Buoy 42057, several hundred miles to the southeast of TD 16's center. Winds were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph at 2:43pm EDT this afternoon. Rotation of TD 16 can be seen on radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba, and well as satellite imagery. The heavy thunderstorms are currently quite disorganized, but a curved band is beginning to wrap around the north side of the center, signaling that TD 16 is growing more organized. TD 16 has brought torrential rains to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Honduras today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida and Cuba. TD 16 has brought 2 - 4 inches of rains to the region.

Forecast for TD 16
Because TD 16 is so large, it will take more time than a typical depression for it to spin up into a strong tropical storm. Given that the steering currents are expected to pull TD 16 north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the western Bahamas on Wednesday, the storm lacks sufficient time over water to be any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm for Florida. TD 16 is organizing pretty slowly this afternoon, and I think the top winds in Southeast Florida are most likely to be in the 25 - 35 mph range on Wednesday. Winds are likely to be stronger in the western Bahamas, perhaps 30 - 40 mph, since they will be in the stronger right front quadrant of the storm. By the time TD 16 makes landfall in South Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday morning, it could be as strong as a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm. However, wind shear will increase sharply on Thursday as TD 16 gets caught in an upper-level trough of low pressure, and NHC is giving TD 16 only a 9% chance of making it to hurricane strength before it becomes an extratropical storm on Thursday. The primary danger from TD 16 is not wind, but heavy rainfall. A potent upper-level low and stationary front over the U.S. East Coast have been pulling moist, tropical air from the Caribbean northwards over the past few days, bringing heavy rains that have saturated the soils. This is called a Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE, since it comes in advance of the actual rain shield of the storm. (A PRE from Hurricane Karl brought southern Wisconsin the heavy rain that caused the levee on the Wisconsin River to fail yesterday.) Wilmington, NC received 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its second greatest one-day rainfall since record keeping began in 1871. Only the 13.38" that fell during Hurricane Floyd on September 15, 1999 beat yesterday's rainfall total. With TD 16 expected to bring another 6 - 8 inches of rain to the region later this week, serious flooding is likely, and flash flood watches are posted for the North Carolina/ South Carolina border region. South Florida is also under a flood watch, for 3 - 5 inches of rain. Flooding rains of similar magnitude can also be expected in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Western Bahamas through Wednesday night. Both the GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that TD 16 will dump rains in excess of eight inches along narrow portions of its path in eastern Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina.


Figure 2. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Sunday, October 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Up to 1,000 feared dead in Mexican landslide
Mexico has taken the brunt of the devastation from the hurricane season of 2010, thanks to the landfalls of this year's two deadliest and most damaging storms, Hurricanes Alex and Karl. But Mexico's worst blow yet hit this morning, when heavy rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew triggered a landslide in Mexico's mountainous Oaxaca state that buried as many as 1,000 people in Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec, a town of 9,000. Rescuers have not reached the area yet, but hundreds are feared dead in the 300 homes that were buried by the early morning landslide. Matthew hit Belize on Saturday as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, and dissipated Sunday over southern Mexico. However, Matthew's remains stalled out over the region of Mexico that had already received torrential rains from Hurricane Karl, which hit on September 18. Satellite estimates of Matthew's rains over southern Mexico (Figure 3) show that a foot of rain may have fallen in the landslide area. Matthew's remains still linger over the region, but are probably only capable of bringing 1 - 2 inches of additional rain through Thursday.


Figure 3. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the five-day period ending at 8pm EDT Monday September 27, 2010. The dark green colors show where rainfall amounts of 300 mm (about 12 inches) fell, due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Once TD 16 moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS model predicts that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression early next week. The GFS also predicts a tropical or subtropical storm will form over the Bahamas late this week, and move north-northeast along the U.S. East Coast, missing hitting land. The NOGAPS model hints at the Bahamas storm, and also predicts development of a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, about a week from now.

Hottest day in Los Angeles history
The mercury hit a blistering 113°F (45.0°C) at 12:15 pm PDT yesterday in downtown Los Angeles, making it the hottest day in Los Angeles history. It may have gotten hotter, but the thermometer broke shortly after the record high was set. The previous record in Los Angeles was 112°F set on June 26, 1990; records go back to 1877. Nearby Long Beach tied its hottest all-time temperature yesterday, with a scorching 111°F. And Christopher C. Burt, our new featured blogger on weather records, pointed out to me that a station in the foothills at 1260' elevation near Beverly Hills owned by the Los Angeles Fire Department hit 119°F yesterday--the hottest temperature ever measured in the Los Angeles area, tying the 119°F reading from Woodland Hills on July 22, 2006. Yesterday's record heat was caused by an unusually large and intense upper-level high pressure system centered over Nevada that generated winds blowing from the land to the ocean, keeping the ocean from exerting its usual cooling influence. Remarkably, Los Angeles had its second coldest summer on record this year, and temperatures just five days ago were some the coldest September temperatures in the region for the past 50 years.

The remarkable summer of 2010
Wunderground is pleased to welcome a new featured blogger--weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris is a leading expert in the U.S. on weather records, and is author of the world's most popular weather records book published to date, Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book. He's spent a lifetime collaborating with like-minded individuals from around the world, and no one--including official sources such as the National Climatic Data Center and the National Extremes Committee--has done as thorough a job correlating the various weather records available and determining the most accurate extreme values of such. Each month he'll be reporting on the notable records for heat, cold, and precipitation set world-wide, and his first post takes a look at the remarkable summer of 2010. It's great to have someone like Chris who stays on top of weather extremes, and I hope you'll pay a visit to his blog and welcome him to the wunderground site!

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll have updates as the situation with TD 16 requires.

Jeff Masters

Alone again, naturally (ftogrf)
Lonely Seagull, as a storm associated with TD 16 is approaching.
Alone again, naturally

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1285. nash28
1:05 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Ok gang. 4am comes early. Off to bed. Stay safe friends in FL tonight!

Back in the am.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1284. Tazmanian
1:05 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting TriMOPER:
When is the next HH flight?




OUS42 KNHC 271630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT MON 27 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-118

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 28/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 28/1530Z
D. 20.0N 85.0W
E. 28/1700Z TO 28/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 29/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
C. 29/0315Z
D. 21.5N 84.5W
E. 29/0500Z TO 29/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES AT 29/1500Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. TASKING FOR AF AND G-IV MISSIONS AT 28/1800Z, 29/06
AND 1200Z WERE CANX BY NHC AT 1115Z.

3. REMARK: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THE SUSPECT AREA BETWEEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 28/1200Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW








00
NOUS42 KNHC 281500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 28 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-119

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 29/1500,1800,2100Z
B. AFXXX 0316A CYCLONE
C. 29/1230Z
D. 24.2N 80.6W
E. 29/1430Z TO 29/2100Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 30/0000,0300,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0416A CYCLONE
C. 29/2115Z
D. 26.5N 79.8W
E. 29/2330Z TO 30/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
30/1200Z IF SYSTEM STILL A THREAT.

3. REMARKS: THERE ARE NO KNOWN RESERACH MISSIONS
SCHEDULED AT THIS TIME.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


alll you need to no
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114958
1283. Patrap
1:04 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Stepping out to relax..

be safe over yonder in Harms way tonight...


..My self-control I cant rely on anymore..

On waves of love my heart is breaking
And stranger still my self control I can't rely on anymore
New tides surprise - my world it's changing
Within this frame an ocean swells - behind this smile I know it well

Beneath a lover's moon I'm waiting
I am the pilot of the storm - adrift in pleasure I may drown
I built this ship - it is my making
And furthermore my self control I can't rely on anymore
I know why - I know why
Crazy on a ship of fools
Crazy on a ship of fools
Turn this boat around - back to my loving ground

Who claims that no man is an island
While I land up in jeopardy - more distant from you by degrees
I walk this shore in isolation
And at my feet eternity draws ever sweeter plans for me
I know why - I know why
Crazy on a ship of fools
Crazy on a ship of fools
Turn this boat around - back to my loving ground
Oh no, oh no - ship of fools --
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127846
1280. Patrap
1:02 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Lighten up..,Lighten up..

..Ill be ya Tall cool one

Hey,hey,momma...




ATCF images (Hurricane Track Models)

Current Storms:
Invest96
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127846
1279. Bordonaro
1:01 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
www.1017chuckfm.com

Thanks I am listening to Chuck FM and watching the Regional SE radar.

Folks in FL, whether it is TD 16, TS Nicole or STS Nicole, regardless what this system is called, you're looking at deep tropical moisture being thrown up in front of the trough and cold front to your west. Add wind shear and you have a perfect recipe for severe thunderstorms, a possible night-time tornado out break, torrential rain and the main energy from TD 16 is moving slowly NW ward.

PLEASE, keep your NOAA weather radio handy for watches and warnings in your area, please DO not drive unless absolutely necessary due to the flooding threat. Parts of SE FL may see 10+'' or rain. I am shocked there is not a Tornado Watch out tonight. See the Severe Weather map below:
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1277. duajones78413
1:00 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
I have relatives near Raleigh, NC.
Any ideas what they might expect?
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
1275. Patrap
1:00 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
TD-16 Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127846
1274. TBPauly
1:00 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting Patrap:


That looks like a due east movement (or center shift) to me....heading right for Jamaica...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
1272. pottery
12:59 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I just got on the computer at home. Tried to post a few times at work but that computer there is slooooow. Are you getting rain there ? It looks like it is not too many days away from you.

Weather here has been much improved over the past 48 hrs.
Just some afternoon thunderstorms on the Mountains today and yesterday.
No weather from that area at about 45W. Still a LONG way out.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24261
1270. NRAamy
12:58 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Nash! It's great to see you on the main blog!!

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
1267. stormwatcherCI
12:57 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting pottery:

Yeah, some of us have been watching that..
I just got on the computer at home. Tried to post a few times at work but that computer there is slooooow. Are you getting rain there ? It looks like it is not too many days away from you.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8339
1265. roguewave64
12:56 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
heavy downpour in Jax,Fl.
Member Since: September 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
1263. Progster
12:56 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
looks like the axis of the trough Link has passed thru Kingston Jamaica (with the centre of the TD to the west)

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
1262. TriMOPER
12:56 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
When is the next HH flight?
Member Since: September 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
1260. Patrap
12:55 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127846
1259. zoomiami
12:55 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
The storms north of us here in Miami are still the interaction with the front, per area meteorologists.

Could be really interesting tomorrow, when td16 rains start coming in. They are already going to be drenched.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4154
1257. PSLFLCaneVet
12:54 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting Skyepony:
The bow echo weakened, should come through here.

Maybe a few interesting days. 16L is plotted to come right through here by most models.

Looks like there should be a break in the morning between this front & 16L.. enough to get water & decide how much hunkering might be needed. Not liking the shuttle being on the pad.


Glad for the weakening. Hard to think much "hunkering" will be necessary, at this point.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
1253. pottery
12:54 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Good night everyone. I see two areas of decent vort in the central/eastern Atlantic.

Yeah, some of us have been watching that..
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24261
1252. Barefootontherocks
12:54 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Why do they keep referring to the Carribean low as monsoonal? I understand how the monsoon works in India and the SWest America but have never heard that thrm in the Carribean. Can anyone enlighten me?


Been asking this myself for days on this blog, and no-one answers. It seems as his blog suggest above, Dr. Masters and others on Wikipedia are coining a new weather term, "Monsoon Depression." That's good enough for me. At least now, I have somewhat of an understanding as to what some are refering.

Been wet in south peninsular Florida today and in the Florida Keys but not as wet as I would have expected. We'll see what this evening brings.

National Weather Service Enhanced Radar Image Loop

National Weather Service Enhanced Radar Image Loop


Please see below. A good explanation in the link.

Quoting beell:
Call it what it is. Not a regular feature of the ATL Basin Season, but...

Monsoon Depression:

The term has gained ascendancy in use to refer to a broad tropical cyclonic circulation characterized by 1) its large size, where the outermost closed isobar may have a diameter on the order of 600 n mi (1000 km); 2) a loosely organized cluster of deep convective elements, which may form an elongated band of deep convection in the east semicircle; 3) a low- level wind distribution that features a 100 n mi (200 km) diameter light-wind core, which may be surrounded by a band of gales or contain a highly asymmetric wind field; and 4) a lack of a distinct cloud system center. Most monsoon depressions that develop in the western North Pacific eventually acquire persistent central convection and accelerated core winds, marking their transitions into conventional tropical cyclones...

...it has a similar structure as an Atlantic tropical depression, except its origin is within the monsoon trough, it is usually larger and it is strongest above the surface...


Link
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18561
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1249. nash28
Pat-

You're a god!!!
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
Quoting JupiterFL:


Depends on what time I start drinking.
I guess I better call Jose my garden gnome to move my plants and pool furniture onto the patio.
Just in case...ask him to report back if he sees any ant mounds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1246. Patrap
www.1017chuckfm.com
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127846


Good night everyone. I see two areas of decent vort in the central/eastern Atlantic.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8339
1244. nash28
Amy sweetie!!!!!

How is ya? Er...

I mean... How are ya? LOL!
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1242. GoWVU
Quoting nash28:
As long as 101.7 Chuck FM is still rolling thru the torrent, I'll be happy:-)


LOL, Could not agree more
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1241. NRAamy
Stay safe BLU!!!!!!
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
1240. Patrap
Quoting Skyepony:
The bow echo weakened, should come through here.

Maybe a few interesting days. 16L is plotted to come right through here by most models.

Looks like there should be a break in the morning between this front & 16L.. enough to get water & decide how much hunkering might be needed. Not liking the shuttle being on the pad.



The ET's arent to Durable with the Foam Dome.

skye,.Be safe and dry
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127846
1238. Skyepony (Mod)
The bow echo weakened, should come through here.

Maybe a few interesting days. 16L is plotted to come right through here by most models.

Looks like there should be a break in the morning between this front & 16L.. enough to get water & decide how much hunkering might be needed. Not liking the shuttle being on the pad.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
1237. nash28
As long as 101.7 Chuck FM is still rolling thru the torrent, I'll be happy:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
Quoting JupiterFL:
I have a 3:45 flight from San Juan to Fort Laudy tomorrow. New poll on the chances of me getting home tomorrow.
1) Great because Spirit doesn't care about dangerous conditions.
2) Good because if I pay a bad weather fee, they will take me.
3) Bad because everyone already changed their flights and they are too cheap to fly a half empty plane.
4) Cancelled because the pilot is too drunk on Medalla and DonQ to fly the plane in rain.


Prob # 3 , just as the carry on fee ,
spirit has just announced a new bad weather fee ,
"too make our flights more dangerous and more stressing for you we have added a bad weather fee so you don't have to worry about loosing your flight , just worry about making it to our bathrooms"

PS: Our bathrooms are broken down too, sorry.

ENJOY YOUR FLIGHT AND THANK YOU FOR CHOOSING Spirit Airlines
"Where we invent fees each second!"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JupiterFL:
I have a 3:45 flight from San Juan to Fort Laudy tomorrow. New poll on the chances of me getting home tomorrow.
1) Great because Spirit doesn't care about dangerous conditions.
2) Good because if I pay a bad weather fee, they will take me.
3) Bad because everyone already changed their flights and they are too cheap to fly a half empty plane.
4) Cancelled because the pilot is too drunk on Medalla and DonQ to fly the plane in rain.
Finally.....a poll that interests me..lol. They're all good possibilities. I'll pick #2...lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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