Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

lol jim cantore is having a panic attack because TD 16 doesn't look good on satellite

Quoting Kristina40:
Is the stuff hitting Florida now part of TD 16? I've been at work and haven't had any updates today.

Not yet, it is the deep tropical moisture being rammed and lifted in front of that stationary front draped across FL.

It will get much worse tomorrow, as the TD 16 will be approaching from the south. The moisture fetch gets lifted up in front of the stationary front. It may be the worst is offshore east of FL, however that stationary front and deep trough to your west will create its own heavy rainfall regardless of TD 16.

Got a question for your hurricane savvy folks.

I have notice, that the remnants of Julia, are moving to the Northwest away from Bermuda. Is it possible that the remnants might get caught up in the frontal system which lies off the east coast, and over the gulf stream, and possible regenerate? And if so, would this have any bearing as to the possible track of Nicole?

Quoting CaptnDan142:


Considering how far away from the center the higher winds are, I am thinking even Cat 1 might be a stretch. From the way it has been reported, the winds that are close to TS are pretty isolated and well away from the center.

I just don't see it happening, unless the structure of the storm changes dramatically.

Yeah, I agree with this.

Quoting Bordonaro:

Not yet, it is the deep tropical moisture being rammed and lifted in front of that stationary front draped across FL.

It will get much worse tomorrow, as the TD 16 will be approaching from the south. The moisture fetch gets lifted up in front of the stationary front. It may be the worst is offshore east of FL, however that stationary front and deep trough to your west will create its own heavy rainfall regardless of TD 16.

Thanks for the reply. That front brought us some rough stuff here in Panama City Sunday night into Monday morning.

what are the "consequences" if any for the "incorrect"?

"It shows the 1004 mb isobar passing right through Grand Cayman approximately yet we know that all afternoon and currently the pressure has been sub 1000 mb. In fact it is 998 right now. Who comes up with these images and on what basis ?. This one is obviously incorrect".

Quoting zoomiami:
Evening everyone.

If you look at the graphic Bordonaro posted 1313 - you will see that the severe weather north of Dade county is from the front that is providing the pathway for TD16.

The rain is magnified by the tropical moisture to the south, leading to the unstable atmosphere. As most know, just the passage of a cold front can cause the kind of weather that is happening, especially north of West Palm.

Not a good setup, because those that already have the rain from the front, will be getting more from TD16/TS Nicole tomorrow.

I agree 100%..How can we make the point clear. It is like having a strong cold front and a tropical system in one, this may get rather UGLY!!

Quoting Seasidecove:
Got a question for your hurricane savvy folks.

I have notice, that the remnants of Julia, are moving to the Northwest away from Bermuda. Is it possible that the remnants might get caught up in the frontal system which lies off the east coast, and over the gulf stream, and possible regenerate? And if so, would this have any bearing as to the possible track of Nicole?

Julia won't be able to regenerate, as conditions aren't supportive of that. TD16/Nicole's track won't be altered as a result.

no cat1 to close to front only a strong noreaster here in northeast north carolina possible same as last november storm ok this is still september who knows

Quoting surfmom:

glad SOMEONE is awake - good & a bit concerning point. I always assumed (dangerous word) the information on maps were correct...

Hi there, Surfy!

Quoting Seastep:
Kman - remember that it is MSLP.

But, yeah, pressures were that low all over...

MSLP ??. It was and has been sub 1000 mb over this entire area for about 9 hours continously now.

Attempting to post the graphic - definitely not my forte..


If you look at the reds above South Florida, you can see the interaction with the front. Just below Dade County, (far right hand corner) you will see the swirl coming around, that's from TD16.

Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'd have to say that the lesson to be learned here is not to get hyper over the 7-14 day out models. 7-14 days ago we were looking at a Category Catastrophe Hurricane and instead it looks like a Category zero possible rain and flooding event. Those computer spitballs didn't hit their target, this time. Those pesky models appaantly failed to measure the strength of the trof. Perhaps some actual obs from long-range G-IV missions might have helped improve the model output.

Cosmic,
I think the models did not have the handle on the Caribbean monsoonal trough flow and its multiple low pressure areas and ended up spewing out TCs from this confusion. Nice the SE trough reached as far down as it did and maybe reached further than modeled.

Good evening,

It seems like the wave at 45W seems better organized than TD16.
Wind Shear is a low 5- 10 knots with an anti cyclone starting to form, if I am reading the map correctly.
However,the 850 mb Vorticity Map shows that the vorticity is lacking.

Those are just my thoughts. Obviously, TD 16 takes priority but this could be a bigger deal in the future.

Wow, none of my 5 links posted, but here they are.
and
Here

Quoting Seastep:


Yep. Anything is possible, but it's a rain event for FL. Just too large to get that kind of spin on.

Seems so. Just plain too big.

Not to say it won't be significant, that much rain will definitely be a problem for FL, and later, NC and SC.

Jamaica getting pounded with rain..

Quoting zoomiami:
Attempting to post the graphic - definitely not my forte..


If you look at the reds above South Florida, you can see the interaction with the front. Just below Dade County, (far right hand corner) you will see the swirl coming around, that's from TD16.

Not trying to be a hype-caster, portions of FL may see 10+ inches of rain.

Quoting InTheCone:
Incoming to my locale...

Whoa! Wonder if there are straight-line winds in that? Can't distinguish any vorticity...yet. Stay safe.

Quoting HurricaneGeek:

Good evening,

It seems like the wave at 45W seems better organized than TD16.
Wind Shear is a low 5- 10 knots with an anti cyclone starting to form, if I am reading the map correctly.
However,the 850 mb Vorticity Map shows that the vorticity is lacking.

Those are just my thoughts. Obviously, TD 16 takes priority but this could be a bigger deal in the future.

Wow, none of my 5 links posted, but here they are.
and
Here

and here.

Brian Norcross is saying the TD16 is looking less organized. By looking at the satellite presentation I would have to agree.

Incidentally, my home is only 7 feet above sea level so no issue there with elevation affecting the barometric reading.

Quoting kmanislander:


MSLP ??. It was and has been sub 1000 mb over this entire area for about 9 hours continously now.

Exactly what I said. :)

Just sayin' one point does not make it, that's all.

If there were a 25% part of that area having 1020, say...

As I said, all obs I saw from that entire area was around 1000.

Remember, too, that recon was at 1000 most of its flight.

Again, think that was high too. It is extrapolated after all. Same as xtrap, lol.

Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Good evening,

It seems like the wave at 45W seems better organized than TD16.
Wind Shear is a low 5- 10 knots with an anti cyclone starting to form, if I am reading the map correctly.
However,the 850 mb Vorticity Map shows that the vorticity is lacking.

Those are just my thoughts. Obviously, TD 16 takes priority but this could be a bigger deal in the future.

People in the Islands are watching the action out there for sure.
A lot of potential, but the NHC is not too concerned in the 48hr time frame.

Quoting LakeWorthFinn:
Hi everybody, Lake Worth here, SE Palm Beach County, FL. Winds picking up, we've already had some minor flooding tonight.
I'm looking forward to a Fay or Ernesto-type storm, we need water badly :)
However, as nash wisely said, NOOA weather radios on alert mode for possible tornadoes. For those who are new here and think this will be no big deal (I hope they are right), I warmly recommend to be safe by listing to the advisories and please, do not drive on flooded roads. Remember that TS Fay killed people who didn't heed the warnings and either went surfing or drove their vehicles to flood areas thinking there was a road beneath their car and got stuck. It's not the wind that'll be the biggest threat, it's the rip currents and flooding when you can't see where the road is and you'll might get into trouble.
Stay safe and prepared, every storm is potentially dangerous, STD, TD or a named storm will spawn unexpected tornadoes more often than than not.
Thanks for all the great info you're posting on this blog :)

Get real. Nobody drowns in flooded intersections in south Florida; the terrain is flatter than the proverbial pancake. To be sure water can get deep enough to kill your car's ECU, but not deep enough to drown anyone who isn't bent on suicide.

I've lived in south Dade for more than thirty years; I lived through 24 inches of rain from tropical storm Dennis in the early 80s, watched Andrew rip the roof off my house in 92, made it through the downpours of Irene, Katrina, and some nameless storms, and nobody, I repeat nobody, drowned in their car down here.

Overhyping a minor storm is just as bad as pooh-poohing a major hurricane. A poorly organized depression that may throw six inches of rain our way is a peace offering from the weather gods; when they want to kill, they know how to do it.

Quoting kmanislander:
Incidentally, my home is only 7 feet above sea level so no issue there with elevation affecting the barometric reading.

LMAO

Quoting Bordonaro:

Not trying to be a hype-caster, portions of FL may see 10+ inches of rain.

That could absolutely happen, even in a good afternoon thunderstorm we can get 2-3 inches. I'm thinking that the areas that will see that much rain will be more towards the central florida area, due to the rain received from the front, then the tropical rains.

So far tonight in my part of Dade County we haven't had a lot of rain. Been in the dry spot!

Sometimes that happens from the way the swaths of rain move across, you just end up where the rain isn't.

Just curious, what is the whole deal to the WEST of Jamaica?
Is that associated with TD 16? Is it really THAT far displaced. It looks like a 60 mph ts my itself, jajaja.
Could the center reform there? If not why not? Thanks.

I really need to work on my blog communication skills.

Quoting clwstmchasr:
Brian Norcross is saying the TD16 is looking less organized. By looking at the satellite presentation I would have to agree.

True, however it continues to produce very cold cloud tops and plenty of heavy flooding rain, that is the main threat. And surface pressures continue to slowly fall..

Kind of makes me wonder if the Miami NWS has the computer write their discussions ...seriously, how does a spell check program get "dew point" out of a misspelling of depression ? Or maybe its a local nickname for a monsoonal depression ?

From Miami NWS 5pm discussion
Discussion...of course main concern is the expected impacts associated with dew point 16. The NHC official forecast has this dew point developing into tropopause storm "nicole" tonight...then moving across the far Southeast Florida coast on Wednesday Wednesday evening.

Quoting Seastep:


Exactly what I said. ;)

Just sayin' one point does not make it, that's all.

If there were a 25% part of that area having 1020, say...

As I said, all obs I saw from that entire area was around 1000.

Remember, too, that recon was at 1000 most of its flight.

Recon traversed the entire area around these islands just about and nowhere was above 1000 to 1002 mb yet we get a graphic showing a 1004 mb isobar passing through this area of the NW Caribbean. Sorry, but it doesn't add up.

kman - to be perfectly clear... we agree!

Quoting Bordonaro:

Not trying to be a hype-caster, portions of FL may see 10+ inches of rain.

parts of brevard county have received 8-9 inches of rain and it is still coming down hard there

Quoting TOMSEFLA:
stormw banned any idea why

I know you asked that last night.

Now stop trying to stir up the blog!!!!

Quoting Proflaw:


Get real. Nobody drowns in flooded intersections in south Florida; the terrain is flatter than the proverbial pancake. To be sure water can get deep enough to kill your car's ECU, but not deep enough to drown anyone who isn't bent on suicide.

I've lived in south Dade for more than thirty years; I lived through 24 inches of rain from tropical storm Dennis in the early 80s, watched Andrew rip the roof off my house in 92, made it through the downpours of Irene, Katrina, and some nameless storms, and nobody, I repeat nobody, drowned in their car down here.

Overhyping a minor storm is just as bad as pooh-poohing a major hurricane. A poorly organized depression that may throw six inches of rain our way is a peace offering from the weather gods; when they want to kill, they know how to do it.

Unfortunately people do drown due to this type of flooding, people can drive into the canals due to the high water all around not distinguishing the banks. I've also seen people get killed by using water craft in the flood areas hit underwater structures, and others run into the low bridges, not taking into account the height of the canals.

These would be the reasons for all the warnings about staying out of the high water, both in cars and water craft.

Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Just curious, what is the whole deal to the WEST of Jamaica?
Is that associated with TD 16? Is it really THAT far displaced. It looks like a 60 mph ts my itself, jajaja.
Could the center reform there? If not why not? Thanks.

Yes, that is about 150 miles east of the center, wind shear and the trough are keeping TD 16 discombobulated!!

This storm reminds me of Tropical Storm Ernesto a few years back. We had bad thunderstorms preceding and during the storm, and I remember Va. Capes and N.J. got hit hard.
Something about the trough digging in to our west that is going to super charge this in to a potent Extra Tropical Storm.

Quoting kmanislander:


MSLP ??. It was and has been sub 1000 mb over this entire area for about 9 hours continously now.

Your right running near 998 where you are....also at the bouy well east of you and also at the bouy (998) over 150 plus miles sw of the center of the 997mbTD......so you could never really find this TD's center by pressure alone, thats for sure.

Quoting Seastep:
kman - to be perfectly clear... we agree!

Oh, ok, I will climb down from my soap box now.

Quoting LiveToFish0430:


parts of brevard county have received 8-9 inches of rain and it is still coming down hard there

Add 10"+ on top of that=20 inches or more is possible, not a good scenario!

Quoting kmanislander:


Recon traversed the entire area around these islands just about and nowehre was above 1000 mb yet we get a graphic showing a 1004 mb isobar passing through this area of the NW Caribbean. Sorry, but it doesn't add up.

Had a gust about 1/2 hr a go of 37 mph.