Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Nicole kills five in Jamaica; historic rains in North Carolina; tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2010

The season's fourteenth named storm, Tropical Storm Nicole, lasted only six hours as a tropical storm, but triggered torrential heavy rains that caused havoc from the Caribbean to North Carolina. In Jamaica, flash flooding from Nicole's rains killed at least five, and several other people were swept away by flood waters and are feared dead. The storm cut power to 170,000 island residents, and caused millions of dollars in damages. Nicole dumped 6.93" of rain on Kingston, and 8.62" in the Kingston suburb of Norbrook. Rains were heavier on the western end of the island; 8.47" fell at a personal weather station at Irwindale before the power failed and data was lost.

Figure 1. NASA MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nicole at 2:20pm EDT on 9/29/10. Image credit: NASA.

Figure 2. Flooding in Jamaica from Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: Jamaica Observer.

In Southeast Florida, Nicole brought 5.83" of rain to Miami, 9.58" to Plantation Key, and 5.44" to Homestead. However, Florida escaped serious flooding. Cuba also received widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches, but there are no reports of serious flooding on the island. The remnants of Nicole will continue to bring heavy rains to portions of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas today.

Historic rainfall event for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the the tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC recorded 20.69 inches of rain over the past four days, and 21.28" for the five-day period ending at 10am EDT this morning. The incredible rainfall totals have eclipsed the city's record for heaviest 4-day and 5-day rainfall events, set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd (19.06".) Another 1 - 3 inches of rain are likely today in Wilmington, which might make this month the rainiest month in city history. A series of non-tropical low pressure systems have been developing along a stalled front off the Carolina/North Carolina coast over the past day, and this activity will continue through tonight before the rains finally end late tonight. The historic rainfall is causing severe and damaging flooding across much of eastern North Carolina. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.

Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Sunday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts in excess of ten inches to eastern North Carolina, with over fifteen inches (white colors surrounded by dark purple) near Wilmington.

Heavy rain, flooding, and tornadoes expected from Virginia to New England
The intense plume of tropical moisture streaming northwards along the U.S. East coast will bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches across a wide swath of coast from North Carolina northwards to New England today and Friday. The wunderground severe weather map shows that flood warnings are already posted for portions of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia, and flood watches extend northwards though Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of New England. Tornado watches have been posted for much of the Mid-Atlantic coast, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put the region in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. One tornado warning has already been issued for coastal Virginia this morning. Three possible tornadoes were reported yesterday in northeastern North Carolina.

Disturbance 97L
Two tropical waves, located 600 - 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, are generating a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. NHC has designated this area Invest 97L this morning. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then increase to levels marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. Some slow development of 97L is likely over this time period, and NHC is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The system is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and should slow down to about 10 mph by Saturday. 97L will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model is the only model that develops 97L, and foresees that 97L will track across the northern Lesser Antilles and pass near Puerto Rico on Monday and the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. There are major differences in how the models handle the steering current forecast for next week, and the long-range track of 97L is highly uncertain at this point.

Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L. The upper right portion on the disturbance, centered near 13.5N 45W, is most likely to develop into a tropical depression.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset. (bethinking)

Taken at the Lower Sugarloaf Key Estuary as the skies cleared after TS Nicole moved north.

Hooray for the power company! (AnnaThomas)

Current rain storm took out a tree and a power line. This is what my front yard looks like right now. Praise the power company for responding so quickly- so I could post this picture!

Categories: Flood Tornado Hurricane

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1151. JLPR2 1:06 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting hydrus: What does that mean for storm tracks? CyclonicVoyage gave a perfect explanation just before you asked. :] Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1152. hydrus 1:06 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting CyclonicVoyage: See post 1140 Thats reassuring with a very large looking 97L looming. Even looks ominous..... Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14246

1153. xcool 1:06 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
oh wow goo bye 97l Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1154. xcool 1:07 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1155. aislinnpaps 1:07 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting Stoopid1: Got a couple of inches of rain here in Saratoga Springs, NY. Wind wasn't so bad, max gust was around 31 mph. Barometer reading 29.53 inches and dropping still. Ever go out on Lake George? The clam bar still there? Evening everyone. Humidity is back, guess our cool spell, or at least the best part of it is gone. It was great with low humidity. Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2438

1156. SweetHomeBamaGOM 1:08 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
look at the moisture wrapping back around the eastern side of that high pressure in the atlantic. it looks like it wants to recycle water back into the caribbean if the loop continues. Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365

1157. beell 1:10 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: I hope we're not going to go through that insane NHC conspiracy theory again. It was a marginal case. It was warm-cored but without a well defined center. It had very low pressures. They named it. So what? It hooked up with the cold front almost as soon as it cleared Cuba and came under the influence of the strong divergent (exhaust)upper winds from the trough. Ascent of warm moist air (isentropic-some say over-running) began pretty quick. The Warm Conveyor Belt. The "core" was leaning into and over the front. No longer symmetric in thermal profile. It was a TS for how long? I'll leave out the conspiracy/alien components of this opinion! :) Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12845

1158. Chicklit 1:10 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
monsoonal Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10244

1159. bwat 1:12 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Alright, i'm leaving after this. sorry to be this way and I hope it don't get me banned! But a lot of you guys and gals worry about the current weather, but dont worry aout the after effects! I think we, (and I hope you) want to do more than observe weather! You have many options, including PortLight. I'm telling you guys, united we stand, divided we fall! If anything else someone WU-mail me how I can make a difference. Always with you guys, Brian. Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 338

1160. Chicklit 1:12 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10244

1161. pottery 1:12 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Good Evening all. Weather has cleared up nicely since earlier flooding rains and squalls from the South and West. Satelites were out (?) for a few hrs., and while that was happening much of the heavy rainfall seemed to drop south over Guyana/Venezuela. The center has "relocated" to the east? That would be more in keeping with the second AOI that was pegged at 30% yesterday then. Interesting stuff going on down here... Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

1163. zoomiami 1:13 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting plywoodstatenative: In South Florida they waited until the streets and such were flooded before deciding to open the canal gates and lower water levels in the canals so that the waterways would be able to handle the influx of water from the drains. The problem is that they were well aware of what was coming and knew that the specific areas that flood would be drenched, South Florida Water Management says that they were ready for hurricane season, if so, why then did they wait until the flooding was already underway before opening the gates, imagine if this was a hurricane. Hi Plywood: actually they opened them up about 36 hours prior to when they thought we would be hit. I think they did a pretty good job, most of the canals I saw were good. Now, the little lakes were a different story, but there isn't anything they can do about those. Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4064

1166. centex 1:15 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Explain how weak tropical system created 1 1/2 foot rain thousand miles away. I think that supports no name and just a high octane event between extra strong trough and large area of tropical moisture. Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856

1167. AstroHurricane001 1:15 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
I hope it snows in Astroland. Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

1168. hydrus 1:16 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting CyclonicVoyage: See post 1140 Thank you and JLPR2...:) Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14246

1169. AstroHurricane001 1:16 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: monsoonal Wow! Elongated AoIs! The world has ended. :O Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

1170. Chicklit 1:16 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Hi Potts. Feeling a little stuck in the middle? Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10244

1171. Chicklit 1:17 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Shear Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10244

1172. pottery 1:19 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: Hi Potts. Feeling a little stuck in the middle? Indeed!! Cannot figure out what happens next... Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

1173. Seastep 1:19 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: monsoonal I think that is definitely the defining word of this season. Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

1174. Chicklit 1:20 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Vorticity Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10244

1176. stormpetrol 1:22 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Circles no more, rectangles are more like it , I said there would be a circle in the NW Caribbean at 8pm est, I'm wrong once again, there is a rectangle! lmao!! Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394

1177. centex 1:23 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM: they should remove the "p" name and assign it to ex-nicole. Name it Puke cuz that's what its doing all over the seaboard. or just jump the gun, name the 50% as otto, then we are to P so we can name it Puke then. lol. I think accuweather is one source which is trying to keep Nichole alive. I'm strongly in the camp NHC made a mistake and corrected it quickly. Give them credit for that. Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856

1178. Portlight 1:23 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Eastern North Carolina response Link Member Since: January 7, 2009 Posts: 90 Comments: 403

1179. beell 1:24 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
The trough did a number on the northern half of the monsoon-like depression/circulation. It's gone, imo. All we have left of it is a weakening tap of EPAC moisture into the Caribbean converging with the ATL easterlies over Caribbean-S of Cuba. Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12845

1180. Bordonaro 1:24 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting centex: Explain how weak tropical system created 1 1/2 foot rain thousand miles away. I think that supports no name and just a high octane event between extra strong trough and large area of tropical moisture. It's called barotrofic lift!! Imagine if you will an air mass with PWAT numbers of 2-3"/hr. Add a stationary front from S FL to New England, and thrust that moisture up and over that cooler air mass..Viola' between 5-15' of rain falls! Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

1181. largeeyes 1:24 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Ok, kids in FL had school today and yesterda!y, but do I have to go to work Tomorrow? Poll time Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1379

1182. Patrap 1:24 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
www.portlight.org Featured Wunderground Blog We are beginning to identify needs in Eastern North Carolina in the aftermath of the recent torrential rains there. Many rural, isolated and under served areas will need our help. We are connecting with local officials and pastors who will be instrumental in helping us deliver relief. Our expectation is to deploy our relief trailer and, additionally, a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies within the next few days. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1183. mbinmo 1:25 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting mbinmo: Hey all you stat. guys, was wondering if anybody knows if we have ever had this many hurricanes in a year and no conus hits [i know it may well be not over] also is there any data out there about tornado warnings vs. actual confirmed sightings or damage report's. thanks no takers? no guesses/ Member Since: April 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 13

1184. SweetHomeBamaGOM 1:25 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting centex: I think accuweather is one source which is trying to keep Nichole alive. I'm strongly in the camp NHC made a mistake and corrected it quickly. Give them credit for that. oh don't get me wrong i dont blame nhc. it did have strong winds, which has been experienced across the carolinas in gusts for almost a day now :) i just thought it was funny because puke would be a perfect name for this system. Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365

1185. JLPR2 1:26 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Broad and elongated (east to west) circulation. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1186. stormwatcherCI 1:26 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: Shear That can't be good. Looks like 97L has an anti-cyclone over it. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038

1187. Chicklit 1:27 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting stormpetrol: Circles no more, rectangles are more like it , I said there would be a circle in the NW Caribbean at 8pm est, I'm wrong once again, there is a rectangle! lmao!! Looks like a coupla Idaho potatoes! Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10244

1188. Seastep 1:28 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting JLPR2: Broad and elongated (east to west) circulation. Not if it is at 13N/45W. :) What you show is probably why they placed it there, but that is not where the genesis is happening, imo. Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

1189. stormpetrol 1:29 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting centex: I think accuweather is one source which is trying to keep Nichole alive. I'm strongly in the camp NHC made a mistake and corrected it quickly. Give them credit for that. The NHC was right, Nicole was there for hours before it was named and they could have kept it Nicole for another 24 hours, like I said before " a rose by any other name is still a rose" the effects are the same!JMO, the low was large, it would have made anyone scratch their heads , nevertheless it was the right call, except the last advisory should have been written on it tonight, once again, JMO Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394

1190. Chicklit 1:29 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting Seastep: Not if it is at 13N/45W. :) What you show is probably why they placed it there, but that is not where the genesis is happening, imo. enlighten us please. Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10244

1191. luigi18 1:29 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting JLPR2: Very interesting center relocation. :\ OYE PANA CUENTAME QUE CARA MBA ES ESTO VENDRA O NO Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 451

1192. caneswatch 1:30 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Speaking of animals and their sense to detect hurricanes, one of my cats has been acting up lately. Think the cat's sensing something coming? Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1193. pottery 1:30 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Chicklit, Thanks for the relevant graphics. Interesting shear set-up... Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

1194. centex 1:31 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: It's called barotrofic lift!! Imagine if you will an air mass with PWAT numbers of 2-3"/hr. Add a stationary front from S FL to New England, and thrust that moisture up and over that cooler air mass..Viola' between 5-15' of rain falls! Not sure I get your point, I was explaining how not tropical storm.It never was a TS, I really doubted it when they upgraded it over Cuba. It was a large tropical disturbance and large area of low pressure interacting with very impressive trough. Yes a major/historical weather event but not a TS. We don't need a named storm to warn people. Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856

1195. largeeyes 1:32 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
I'm surprised Press hasn't gotten in a huge Beaufort v Beaufort debate. Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1379

1196. FLGatorCaneNut 1:33 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting plywoodstatenative: In South Florida they waited until the streets and such were flooded before deciding to open the canal gates and lower water levels in the canals so that the waterways would be able to handle the influx of water from the drains. The problem is that they were well aware of what was coming and knew that the specific areas that flood would be drenched, South Florida Water Management says that they were ready for hurricane season, if so, why then did they wait until the flooding was already underway before opening the gates, imagine if this was a hurricane. Are you talking about this past weeks storm... If so, SFWMD open flood gates on Monday well ahead of the arrival of the storm..... And even if flood gates are open, it's still going to flood, especially if its high tide Member Since: July 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 164

1197. doorman79 1:34 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Good Evening! 97l seems to be getting an anticyclone. That sucks. Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895

1199. pottery 1:35 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting doorman79: Good Evening! 97l seems to be getting an anticyclone. That sucks. Yeah! Someboddy opened the door, man. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

1200. Seastep 1:35 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: enlighten us please. Vorticity and anti-cyclone there. There are other vorts within the overall area, but that is where I believe it is forming. No surface data to support now, but that buoy is right in the way, so should know soon enough. While hard at night, this loop shows both the vorticity around 10N/50W, but if you focus on what moves from start to finish to 13N/45W and convection fires, I think that is it. JMO. Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

1201. Chicklit 1:35 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting pottery: Chicklit, Thanks for the relevant graphics. Interesting shear set-up... Troughwise well endowed caribbean monsoonal lows Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10244

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