Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

97L to spread heavy rains in Lesser Antilles; major flooding in North Carolina

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:42 PM GMT on October 02, 2010

A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L), centered about 400 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Sunday. These showers can be seen approaching the islands on Martinique radar this morning. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 97L, and the waters beneath are very warm, 29°C, but recent satellite imagery shows that 97L's heavy thunderstorms are limited and not well organized. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 5:51am EDT showed a moderate wind shift associated with 97L, but nothing close to a closed circulation. Top winds were around 30 - 35 mph. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, today through Monday, then decline. The ECMWF model is the only model currently showing significant development 97L in the next seven days. The model predicts 97L will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday, with the storm developing into a tropical depression on Wednesday just north of Haiti, then moving northwards through the Turks and Caicos Islands and out to sea on Thursday. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, and has not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will move at about 10 mph through the islands on Sunday through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. Even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression, its slow motion may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba as it moves past.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Major flooding in northeastern North Carolina
Major flooding continues in northeastern North Carolina, where the Cashie River in Windsor is 5.4 feet over flood stage. North Carolina has been deluged by more than twenty inches of rain in some regions over the past week, due to tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Tropical Storm Nicole. Wilmington, NC set records this week for the heaviest 3-day, 4-day, and 5-day rainfall events in city history, and the month of September ended up as the second rainiest month ever recorded in the city. A remarkable 22.54" of rain fell on Wilmington during the 5-day period Sunday through Thursday. The previous record was 19.06", set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, with just 0.18" of rain falling during the first 25 days of September. Representatives from Portlight.org are on their way to the hardest-hit areas of North Carolina to beginning identifying needs in the wake of the flooding. Portlight expects to perform the first deployment of their new relief trailer within the next few days and send a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies. You can follow their progress via the live webcam on the Portlight truck.

Our new Weather Extreme blogger, Christopher C. Burt, has posted a comparison of the maximum rainfall totals in each state affected by Hurricane Floyd of 1999, and this weeks extreme rainfall event, which he dubs "Super-Rainstorm Nicole." The two storms were very similar in the amount of rain they dumped, and we are very fortunate that moderate drought conditions preceded the arrival of this week's storm, or else billions in damage would have resulted.

Figure 2. Rainfall for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT this morning shows the remarkable accumulations that fell in association with the tropical moisture ahead of Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: NOAA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Disturbed weather has diminished in the Central Caribbean, where the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole are no longer kicking up significant thunderstorm activity. Several of the models are predicting the formation of a tropical depression in the Mid-Atlantic 6 - 8 days from now, in a location that would not be of any danger to land areas.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Flooding Bristol Vermont (31337)

Too Wet To Harvest Today (duck29)

Heavy rain and high winds for 2 days caused flash flooding in many areas of New York State

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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551. barbamz 2:23 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting hydrus: You should not be bashful about your life experiences Gro. Whether they were in this century or centuries gone by..Share the knowledge and the wisdom of ancient times with today,s generation. Lol ... Grothar for sure is an old druid ... Druids recognized as religion for first time in UK By SYLVIA HUI (AP) – 19 hours ago Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 1614

552. sailingallover 2:23 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting CaribBoy: Still waiting for the real weather from 97L here at 18N 63W! Lol yeah it strange Sat last night looked like we would get hammered but then nothing! Fne by me though. Squalls at night stink n a boat. Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 982

553. Grothar 2:25 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting swampliliy: Morning Groth and Orca. :)) "Ryder Cup"- is that like Nascar with rental trucks? Yo, Swampman! Personally, I think this year's tournament is "all wet". Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553

554. Orcasystems 2:25 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting swampliliy: Morning Groth and Orca. :)) "Ryder Cup"- is that like Nascar with rental trucks? Nope... its a real sport. Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

555. sailingallover 2:26 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting hydrus: It is a link about The Great Hurricane of 1780. A cat-5 that struck Barbados and the Lesser Antilles With winds estimated at over 200 mph. It killed over 27,000 people. Ill have to take alook at that... In January! Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 982

556. hydrus 2:27 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting Grothar: Aw, what's the sense, hydrus, they wouldn't understand. Had the same problem with Socrates; thick-headed guy with a mind of his own. Wouldn't listen to me and look how he ended up. Philosophers have always been eccentric Gro. You should know that. Especially after shooting the breeze with the likes of Ovid and Descartes. Is your memory slipping? Sometimes taking one extra Geritol can remedy such maladies. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

557. Grothar 2:27 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting hydrus: 97L is becoming better organized. And that region is condusive for development now. hydrus, I've been posting this since last night. Don't you ever go back and look? LOL Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553

558. hydrus 2:29 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting sailingallover: Ill have to take alook at that... In January! LOL ! No, It was in existence from Oct-9 to Oct-20..It is an exceptional read. The shear power of the storm was almost unimaginable. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

559. swampliliy 2:31 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems: Nope... its a real sport. Oh....like this? Link Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 7 Comments: 7039

560. hydrus 2:33 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting Grothar: hydrus, I've been posting this since last night. Don't you ever go back and look? LOL I love to go back and read everything. To put it simply ..I am SWAMPED! 97L looks like it is growing a bit... Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

561. Grothar 2:34 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting barbamz: Lol ... Grothar for sure is an old druid ... Druids recognized as religion for first time in UK By SYLVIA HUI (AP) – 19 hours ago Didn't hear about that! Funny. But Stonehenge was built long before the Druids were even around. I know, I remember when it was built. it was supposed to be ein Nebengebaüde! LOL Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553

562. Orcasystems 2:35 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting swampliliy: Oh....like this? Link ROFLMAO, yup thats the one Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

563. sailingallover 2:36 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
We do have some shear as evidenced by high cirrus we also have some Large areas of convection with some impressive vertical developmen what's cool is I can see more shear to the north less to the south as well as the squall coming up behind met Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 982

564. Orcasystems 2:36 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Score 6-6 Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

565. PanhandleChuck 2:41 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting swampliliy: Oh....like this? Link Talk about humiliation Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

566. Orcasystems 2:45 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting PanhandleChuck: Talk about humiliation true, but almost every golfer has done it at least once.... Some of us... have even done it in a tournament :( Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

567. barbamz 2:46 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting Grothar: Didn't hear about that! Funny. But Stonehenge was built long before the Druids were even around. I know, I remember when it was built. it was supposed to be ein Nebengebaüde! LOL What you say ... 360° view of stonehenge (flash player required): http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/programmes/stonehenge/flash/panorama.swf Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 1614

568. weatherwatcher12 2:47 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting kimoskee: They're not answering. I guess they must have gone to church. :-D I will keep trying. Back later. I got throught to them, you have to call the airport station instead of the office. They said they would check it out as soon as posssible. They also said thanks for the observation, that thanks goes to you Grothar . Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231

569. PanhandleChuck 2:52 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems: true, but almost every golfer has done it at least once.... Some of us... have even done it in a tournament :( Been there myself Orca.... I refuse to play the rest of the hole with my pants down around my ankles. Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

570. Neapolitan 2:54 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
The 10% AOI around 9N/44W is holding together; there's good convection right at the center of the increasing 850mb vorticity, and some low-level cyclonic turning is becoming evident. I'm not the first one to say this today, but, yes, look for a new invest by this evening if things continue as they are... Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11169

571. hydrus 2:58 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
It is still warm in the Gulf if anything manages to get in there later on... Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

572. stormwatcherCI 2:58 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting WeatherNerdPR: You didn't find any results because, at least in Spanish, it's spelled "Boricuas". I thought it was a nationality I had never heard of before and I was trying to find out where the country was. LOL Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

573. weathermanwannabe 3:02 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan: The 10% AOI around 9N/44W is holding together; there's good convection right at the center of the increasing 850mb vorticity, and some low-level cyclonic turning is becoming evident. I'm not the first one to say this today, but, yes, look for a new invest by this evening if things continue as they are... Good Catch..........Sheer is low ahead of it but I would like to see some convection build and persist for at least 24 hours....Not so sure that it will make invest status by this evening but maybe by tommorow afternoon..... :) Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6703

574. kimoskee 3:06 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting weatherwatcher12: I got throught to them, you have to call the airport station instead of the office. They said they would check it out as soon as posssible. They also said thanks for the observation, that thanks goes to you Grothar . Yes. I was calling the number listed on the website. Glad you got through. Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 670

575. Grothar 3:07 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting barbamz: What you say ... 360° view of stonehenge (flash player required): http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/programmes/stonehenge/flash/panorama.swf Some beautiful views. I have never been there, but always wanted to see it. I guess now I have. Thanks. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553

576. Orcasystems 3:08 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Complete Update AOI AOI AOI AOI AOI AOI AOI TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

577. weathermanwannabe 3:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Out for Church............Enjoy the Rest of the Weekend Folks.......WW Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6703

578. Grothar 3:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting weatherwatcher12: I got throught to them, you have to call the airport station instead of the office. They said they would check it out as soon as posssible. They also said thanks for the observation, that thanks goes to you Grothar . No big thing, just something I learned in first grade. East is East and West is West and never the twain shall meet! They do that on the Weather Channel all the time. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553

579. SeALWx 3:19 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems: Score 6-6 The other score was 31-6. The 'new look' UF offense is pretty offensive, to say the least! Oh, and NEW BLOG!!! Member Since: April 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 179

580. Orcasystems 3:23 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting SeALWx: The other score was 31-6. The 'new look' UF offense is pretty offensive, to say the least! There is no "other"... umm unless its a Hockey Score :) Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

581. weatherwatcher12 3:28 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting Grothar: No big thing, just something I learned in first grade. East is East and West is West and never the twain shall meet! They do that on the Weather Channel all the time. Lol, but it is a little hard to believe that it wasn't picked up in a proofread or something. Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231

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