97L a heavy rain threat to the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico today
A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L), centered about 200 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west to west-northwest at about 10 mph and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands today through Tuesday. These showers can be seen on Martinique radar this morning, and have increased considerably since yesterday, thanks to the presence of an upper level trough of low pressure making the atmosphere more unstable. This same trough is also bringing high wind shear of 20 -25 knots, though, so development of 97L is not expected today. Recent satellite imagery shows a large area of intense thunderstorms associated with 97L, but the activity is not well organized. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Monday through Thursday. The ECMWF model continues to be the only model showing significant development 97L in the next seven days. The model predicts 97L will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday, with the storm developing into a tropical depression on Thursday just north of Haiti, then moving northwards through the Turks and Caicos Islands and out to sea on Thursday. NHC is giving 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, and has not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will move at about 10 mph through the islands today through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. These rains may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic beginning on Monday, and for Haiti beginning on Tuesday. Flash flood watches are posted for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.
Flood waters receding in northeastern North Carolina
Flood waters are receding in northeastern North Carolina, where the Cashie River in Windsor caused major flooding that put many homes under five feet of water. North Carolina was deluged by more than twenty inches of rain in some regions over the past week, due to tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Tropical Storm Nicole. Representatives from Portlight.org are surveying the hardest-hit areas of North Carolina to begin identifying needs in the wake of the flooding. Portlight expects to perform the first deployment of their new relief trailer within the next few days and send a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies. You can follow their progress via the Portlight.org blog.
Our new Weather Extreme blogger, Christopher C. Burt, has posted a comparison of the maximum rainfall totals in each state affected by Hurricane Floyd of 1999, and this weeks extreme rainfall event, which he dubs "Super-Rainstorm Nicole." The two storms were very similar in the amount of rain they dumped, and we are very fortunate that moderate drought conditions preceded the arrival of this week's storm, or else billions in damage would have resulted.
Figure 2. Rainfall for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT this morning shows the remarkable accumulations that fell in association with the tropical moisture ahead of Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: NOAA.
Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather near 9N, 44W is fairly close to having a closed circulation, as seen on a 8:04am EDT pass by the ASCAT satellite. However, satellite imagery shows only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, and there is plenty of dry air in the vicinity that is interfering with development. The disturbance is headed to the northwest, and the computer models predict the disturbance will not affect any land areas for at least the next seven days. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.
Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
items by placing them on the roof. Vanceboro, NC
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 — Blog Index
I think its coming early for you this year :)
That little Blob to the SE of 97 might be something to watch :)
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Well, that would be $139,324,883 dollars (139 million). Roads should be gone....
Link
(Stupid question.Why are they a hour ahead of us in Haiti(EST)?)
Link
Haiti is on Eastern Time Mobile is on Central Time
Could it be a daylight savings time issue?
Im in St.Pete. There is still a hr diff.?? I was wondering about the day light savings thing?
Thank you
How are things out west? Cooling off any out there?
(We can't get an update from our favorite hippo tonight - seems amid all the sports updates last night, she was posting about the wrong team or something - so no hippos allowed tonight.)
SERVIR-VIZ 3-D Visualization Tool for Mesoamerica
SERVIR-VIZ is a customized version of NASA"s free, open-source, web-enabled, 3D earth exploration tool known as WorldWind. SERVIR-VIZ was developed in a joint effort lead by SERVIR research partner The Institute for the Application of Geospatial Technology (IAGT). SERVIR-VIZ allows users to employ custom tools and view remotely-hosted framework data layers, maps, real-time satellite images, and other SERVIR products relevant to the Mesoamerica region in an interactive, 3D globe environment. SERVIR-VIZ is fully interoperable with NASA World Wind and can be used in conjunction with the numerous plug-ins and add-ons available from WorldWind Central. Please visit this page in the future as the SERVIR and IAGT teams have plans to expand the tools, data, and images available from SERVIR-VIZ.
Link
View Servir
Link
3Oct 12amGMT - - 17.4n57.0w - - 25knots -- 1008mb -- NHC-ATCF
3Oct 06amGMT - - 17.5n58.4w - - 25knots -- 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF
3Oct 12pmGMT - - 17.7n59.8w - - 25knots -- 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF
3Oct 06pmGMT - - 17.8n61.8w - - 25knots -- 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF
4Oct 12amGMT - - 17.8n63.9w - - 25knots -- 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF
Copy&paste 17.4n57.0w-17.5n58.4w, 17.5n58.4w-17.7n59.8w, 17.7n59.8w-17.8n61.8w, 17.8n61.8w-17.8n63.9w, lrm, stx, uvf, 17.8n63.9w-17.8n66w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24*hours.
* The westernmost line-segment is a straightline projection of the heading averaged over the 6hours spanning the last two reported positions.
Rainy day, work all day - Hndx
PI! Very glad to see you back. How are you?
Link
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:30 PM UTC October 3 2010
=================================
An area of convection (95W) located at 17.2N 108.OE, approximately 120 nm southwest of Hainan Island. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows an area of broad cyclonic turning with increased deep convection along the northern periphery. Upper level analysis indicates the system is located under the ridge axis in an area of enhanced diffluence aloft and increased poleward outflow associated with a digging mid-latitude trough. Surface observations to the southeast of the system indicate south-southeasterly winds at 22 knots and 1006.2 mb pressure and danang, Vietnam international Airport, just to the west of the low level circulation, is reporting a pressure of 1003 mb (a 4 mb drop over the past 24 hours). Additionally, environmental analysis indicates favorable sea surface temperatures (reports of 84 degrees f) and moderate (20 knots) vertical wind shear.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 17 to 22 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb. While a distinct low level circulation center is still IL-defined and is tracking closer to land, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO FAIR, based on recent surface observations and an increasingly favorable upper level environment.
this is false right?
If that is So .... there will be a Storm
Trinidad radar...Link
Yeah, have a good night, brother. Hope to talk to you tomorrow. Sleep well.
Yep. The problem being that NHC keeps reevaluating&alteringing their numbers...
...erasing the old numbers in the process, when they should keep those numbers in the record...
...then label only their latest change for each given date&time as BEST.
eg Comparing plots generated from the 3Oct_06amGMT coordinates with those of 3Oct_12pmGMT
On both plots, the westernmost line-segment is a straightline projection of the heading averaged over the 6hours spanning the last two reported positions.
Viewing: 401 - 451
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 — Blog Index