Otto transitioning to a tropical storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:35 PM GMT on October 07, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

Subtropical Storm Otto, the 15th named storm of this very busy 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Otto is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and northern Lesser Antilles. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 2) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen in several locations over the past three days, and the St. Thomas Airport officially recorded 9.30" of rain so far from Otto. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for both the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico today. Martinique radar shows considerably less activity over the Lesser Antilles.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS image of Subtropical Storm Otto taken at 12:55pm EDT October 6, 2010.

Satellite loops show Otto's heaviest thunderstorms lie in two bands to the south, many hundreds of miles from the storm's center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system over Otto has pumped cold, dry air aloft into the storm, keeping it from being fully tropical. However, the upper low is weakening, and Otto has recently developed a burst of heavy thunderstorms near its center, and very tropical storm-like spiral bands are now developing to the east and south of Otto's center. Otto is fast becoming fully tropical, and will be called Tropical Storm Otto later today. The storm's newly developing spiral bands will mostly stay offshore, but a few heavy rain showers capable of dumping 1 - 2 inches of rain may affect the Turks and Caicos Islands today, as well as the northern Dominican Republic. The heavier rains in Otto's old rain band over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will continue to dump flooding rains in those locations through tonight. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday. Given the very warm waters of 28 - 29°C and low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots today, Otto may approach hurricane strength before high wind shear in excess of 20 knots impacts the storm Friday night.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Otto over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen in many regions. The strange ray-like pattern to the east of the radar location (the white "+" symbol) is due to mountains blocking the radar beam.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather has formed in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles west of Jamaica. The disturbance has a moderate area of intense thunderstorms that brought close to two inches of rain to Grand Cayman Island over the past day. The disturbance is under a high 15 - 25 knots of wind shear, and is not likely to develop significantly today. The disturbance is headed south at 10 - 15 mph, and will bring heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. None of the models develop the disturbance, but it does have some potential for slow development beginning on Friday when it will be off the coast of Nicaragua, in a region of lower wind shear and higher moisture. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday.

Monsoon flooding kills 139 in Asia
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 91 people and left 100 more missing. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 48 people, with 23 people still missing. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains of up to seven inches over the past week have also hit nearby Hainen Island in China. The resulting flooding was the worst in 50 years there, and killed one person and forced the evacuation of 55 villages with 213,000 people.

Press
I've been a subscriber for several years to NewScientist magazine, a weekly science news magazine that does a great job staying abreast of all the latest breaking science happenings. This week's October 4 issue features a 4-page section on Extreme Weather that I wrote for them as part of their "Instant Expert" series. If you haven't ever seen the magazine, I enthusiastically recommend taking a look.

If you're a fan of the geek humor xkcd webcomic, see if you can find me on the hilarious map of the "blogosphere" on comic artist Randall Munroe's latest xkcd comic. I like the disparity between my influence in September vs. March, but thought I should have been closer to the "Bay of Flame!" I also appeared in a mouse "rollover" text box in an xkcd comic during the Gulf oil disaster earlier this year.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 212 - 162

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

My latest blog, updated at 3:45PM CDT today, with an update on Otto, N Texas Weather and Portlight:
Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting pottery:

Your last sentence is a Revelation, and should be memorized for all time...
yep...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


I got news for you...much as I don't wish anyone ill, if he ever meets a hurricane head on he's going to be deceased...just saying

And the issue here is not the loss of so many to the admins, but the overabundance of idoits who can't admit when they're wrong...and the overabundance of those who have to point it out to them

Your last sentence is a Revelation, and should be memorized for all time...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

speaking of xkcd, the rollover text on this one I think is implicitly referring to us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BreadandCircuses:


That doesn't make any sense, that would be like saying if a RB had 15 carries for 120 yds for a 8 yd/carry avg. but if you take away his longest rush of 50 yds. and call it an anomaly, then he only had 14 carries for 70 yds., then he'd only have a 5 yd/carry avg. But you don't take away the carries where he had no gain or lost yardage? You can't pick and choose which years to omit, they all count.

Good analogy. Barry Sanders' detractors used to do that. "If you take away his 75 yard touchdown and his other run for 27, he was only 16-35!" Put the bum on the bench!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Strong Northerly wind flow also piling up the water in those dead end canals off the North South, especially those oriented N to S.

I have never managed to draw Kman into these Climate Change discussions...
heheheh

How you doing, Kman?
Lovely weather here this week so far.
Looks like something is coming though...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A better way to lessen the distorting impact on averages of outlying years such as 2005 is to consider the median averages rather than the mean ones. Throwing away inconvenient data is rarely the best approach. By considering only the medians, 2005 is just another high year and doesn't distort the final totals anymore than it would if it had had 16 storms.

1995 - 2009 medians are 15 - 8 - 3. Artificially removing 2005 wouldn't even affect the medians much, moving only the TS figure down half a notch: 14.5 - 8 - 3.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

True.
But I dont think that anomalies should be excluded at all.
And I dont think that the numbers generated in 2005 will not be seen again.
I think that one of the glaring peculiarities of 2010, is that it did not match (or come close) to 2005, all things considered.

My point is, that I think that we can expect strange weather all over the place (tropics, temperate, polar) in the future.
But to expect it to be consistent is asking too much.


Another reason why I exclude 2005 as well.

If we see another 2005 in the next 5 years, I'll reverse thinking 2005 was an anomaly.

Speaking of the next 5 years.. anyone notice a pattern emerging in the ENSO transitions?

2002: El Nino
2003: La Nina
2004: El Nino ish.
2005: Neutral
2006: El Nino
2007: La Nina
2008: Neutral
2009: El Nino
2010: La Nina
2011: Predicted to be.. Neutral.

If that where to continue
2012: El Nino
2013: La Nina
2014: Neutral
2015: El Nino
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting johnnyascat:


That's what happens when interesting posters like Storm, CycloneOz, & others get admin'd outta here. Just deal with it!

Speaking of him, I learned yesterday on Facebook that CycloneOz intends on being at ChaserCon 2011 in Denver this coming February.

I may just go to meet him and get his autograph. I have a feeling that if he ever has a hurricane to hit him head on, he may become national sensation.


I got news for you...much as I don't wish anyone ill, if he ever meets a hurricane head on he's going to be deceased...just saying

And the issue here is not the loss of so many to the admins, but the overabundance of idoits who can't admit when they're wrong...and the overabundance of those who have to point it out to them
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting superpete:
Kmanislande:With the rain & high tides, the canal at my place overtopped the roadway yesterday & again today. Saw your recent post showing the low/ rotation south of JA.Might see some possible development there as the week closes on us.


Strong Northerly wind flow also piling up the water in those dead end canals off the North South, especially those oriented N to S.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT42 KNHC 072035
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010
500 PM AST THU OCT 07 2010

BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -70C TO
-80C HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER AND EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. SHEAR PATTERN SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN T3.0/45 KT AND T3.5/55 KT.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 50 KT. ALTHOUGH
A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF
OTTO...LOWER CIRRUS CLOUD ELEMENTS CAN BE SEEN UNDERCUTTING THE
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW LAYER IN VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH
IS CREATING SOME MODEST UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CONDITIONS ON THE CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/05. OTTO IS COMING UNDER THE
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED
EASTWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY ALL OF
THE MODELS TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND STEADILY ACCELERATE OTTO
TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...OTTO IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE AND GALE AREA THAT COULD AFFECT THE AZORES ISLANDS IN 96 TO
120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.

SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WHILE
OTTO REMAINS OVER WARM SSTS AND ALSO MOVES INTO AN AREA OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 24 AND 36
HOURS...AND THAT IS WHEN OTTO COULD POSSIBLY REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. BY 72
HOURS...OTTO IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR OF 35-40
KT...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...OTTO IS
EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA BY THAT TIME...AND THE
INFUSION OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE NHC OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 24.0N 67.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 24.7N 66.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 26.1N 63.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 28.4N 59.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 30.8N 54.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 35.7N 42.3W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 11/1800Z 39.0N 29.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 12/1800Z 37.0N 23.5W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...OTTO MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 67.6W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:


Out of curiosity, then, how far above average would the number(s) have to be in order for you to consider them above average?

FWIW, I still see 20 named storms before it's all over. No matter how one looks at it, that would be above average, no? :-)

Gotta go. TTYL...

Looks like the average (1995-2009 current AMO+ period) is 14.4 ± 2.5, so anything inbetween 12.0 and 16.9 could be considered "normal," rounding to 12-17. I'd agree, without reference to stats, that 13-16 would be a typical active phase year. Borderline cases are always tricky so I don't know if any of us want to go to the mat to defend the idea that 17 storms this year wouldn't be unusually high, or that it wouldn be, though you have to draw the line somewhere. In any case, I think 18 would be unequivocally high and 18 is certainly a possibility this year.

For hurricanes, the average works out to be 7.7 ± 1.7, meaning normal would be 6-9.

I like how the UKMET and NOAA give ranges as their predictions. I think we have to treat the expectation as a range too and not a hard figure, especially an unobtainable figure like 14.4 that's always going to give the misleading impression that a season was either unnaturally active or unnaturally slow - even if it finishes at 14 or 15!

(Interestingly, we're not even necessarily unusually high on majors this year. For the current AMO+ period, the average number of majors is 3.6 ± .93, suggesting a range for normal of 3-5).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2006 and 2009 shouldn't be excluded, nor should 1997.

8, 10, and 9 are only 2-4 less than that average. 2005 was 16 above that average.

True.
But I dont think that anomalies should be excluded at all.
And I dont think that the numbers generated in 2005 will not be seen again.
I think that one of the glaring peculiarities of 2010, is that it did not match (or come close) to 2005, all things considered.

My point is, that I think that we can expect strange weather all over the place (tropics, temperate, polar) in the future.
But to expect it to be consistent is asking too much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9695
192. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 PM CDT THU OCT 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHWARD FORCING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS THAT IS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...AND WE SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WE SHOULD START TO SEE AT LEAST
SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL HELP HELP BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA...ALBEIT SLOWLY. THIS SLOW MOISTURE RETURN WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
OR TUESDAY. BY THE TIME THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE
EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS MONDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE WHOLE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS ON TUESDAY.
THOUGH A FEW AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER TOTALS...AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND WILL PROVIDE
LITTLE REPRIEVE FROM THE DRY CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED
OVER THE PAST MONTH.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WITH A REINFORCING FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD
MIDWEEK. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER...BRINGING
WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Point taken, CYBR.
But then, we should exclude 2009 as well?


2006 and 2009 shouldn't be excluded, nor should 1997.

8, 10, and 9 are only 2-4 less than that average. 2005 was 16 above that average.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Point taken, CYBR.
But then, we should exclude 2009 as well?

..and 2006?

Edited..
sorry, wrong name, LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Updated by the NHC Best track for Nicole.

Nicole was a TS two days before operationally it was considered one. Nicole also did not dissipate until the 30th.

AL, 16, 2010092812, , BEST, 0, 204N, 830W, 35, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 300, 0, 0, 1006, 360, 180, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
AL, 16, 2010092818, , BEST, 0, 212N, 826W, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 300, 0, 0, 1005, 375, 180, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
AL, 16, 2010092900, , BEST, 0, 215N, 821W, 35, 997, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 300, 0, 0, 1003, 375, 180, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
AL, 16, 2010092906, , BEST, 0, 217N, 815W, 35, 997, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 300, 300, 0, 1003, 375, 150, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
AL, 16, 2010092912, , BEST, 0, 219N, 809W, 35, 996, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 300, 300, 0, 1003, 360, 150, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
AL, 16, 2010092918, , BEST, 0, 235N, 806W, 35, 996, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 300, 0, 0, 1003, 360, 150, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NICOLE, D,
AL, 16, 2010093000, , BEST, 0, 250N, 802W, 35, 995, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 300, 0, 0,
AL, 16, 2010093006, , BEST, 0, 264N, 796W, 35, 995, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 300, 0, 0, 1003, 360, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NICOLE, D,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just noticed that this mornings temperature of 67 degrees in west palm beach,fl was 2 away from tieing the record low, anyone know of any good winter outlooks for the united states i can read?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The 15 year average is ~12/7/3.

The average excludes 2005 and 2010. 2005 being an anomaly, and 2010 not even being finished yet.

Point taken, CYBR.
But then, we should exclude 2009 as well?

Edited to correct name, sorry..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If you plan to visit Greenland or CV, you may aboard now...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9695
The low that may develop in the W Carib will most likely experience very hostile Conditions once it approaches Cuba due to strong upper level winds. Don't get too excited yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting system getting ready to make landfall on the Indian Peninsula. Flooding rains possible. Wouldn't be surprised to hear about it from Dr. Masters.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
wow only 43% humidity here in West Palm Beach,Fl i wouldnt be suprised if that is a record low for this time of year. I remember a episode on the weather channel a year or 2 ago about WPB being ranked the most humid place for that year in USA.

That's low...
Bottomed out at 56% here at 11:00 am, which is very low here for October as well. 69% at present.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The 15 year average is ~12/7/3.

The average excludes 2005 and 2010. 2005 being an anomaly, and 2010 not even being finished yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12Z ECMWF @ 144hrs

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wow only 43% humidity here in West Palm Beach,Fl i wouldnt be suprised if that is a record low for this time of year. I remember a episode on the weather channel a year or 2 ago about WPB being ranked the most humid place for that year in USA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Kmanislande:With the rain & high tides, the canal at my place overtopped the roadway yesterday & again today. Saw your recent post showing the low/ rotation south of JA.Might see some possible development there as the week closes on us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:


The 10-year (2000-2009) average of named tropical systems is 14.7*, so we are above that average. Go ahead and round that up to 15, if you'd like...but remember that there are seven or eight weeks of the season yet.

* - If subtropical storms and tropical/subtropical depressions are counted--which they normally aren't--the 2000-2009 average is 17.3 storms, while 2010 is at 17...just below average with, again, many weeks to go. For the record, here's the NHC's listing of storm counts over the period:

2000: 19 total storms (HU, TS, TD, SS, SD) / 14 tropical storms or hurricanes
2001: 17 / 15
2002: 14 / 12
2003: 21 / 16
2004: 16 / 14
2005: 31 / 27
2006: 10 / 10
2007: 17 / 14
2008: 17 / 16
2009: 11 / 9

TOTALS: 173 / 147


Don't think you should include 2005-- that season was an anomaly, it is unlikely we'll see another year like it again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9695
Quoting Floodman:
Man, 6 hours in and only 140 comments? Sad...


That's what happens when interesting posters like Storm, CycloneOz, & others get admin'd outta here. Just deal with it!

Speaking of him, I learned yesterday on Facebook that CycloneOz intends on being at ChaserCon 2011 in Denver this coming February.

I may just go to meet him and get his autograph. I have a feeling that if he ever has a hurricane to hit him head on, he may become national sensation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
10/13 - 10/17
"..FORECASTS FROM THE 00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN AND THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. THE SOLUTION FROM THE EUROPEAN MODEL WOULD FAVOR HEAVY RAINS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST, WHILE THE THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY LESS RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS GFS SOLUTIONS. CONCERNED PARTIES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...

10/18 - 10/21
..FOR LONG TIME-SCALE PHENOMENA, THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND BEGIN TO PROPAGATE INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC. THE POSITION OF THE ENHANCED PHASE OF THE MJO IS FAVORABLE FOR ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AND FOR IMPACTS TO THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... "

Link

That's interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
171. IKE
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EDT THU OCTOBER 07 2010

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 13 - 17 2010

TODAY'S 0Z/6Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAVE CONVERGED UPON A
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING A RETROGRESSION OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER GREENLAND
AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN ALBEIT WITH LESS
AMPLIFICATION. CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPMENT REMAINS PROBABLE OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS MODELS DEPICT A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, WHILE THE OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF DEPICTS A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE 0Z ECMWF
SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW AT 500-HPA, THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS WERE USED TO
INCREASE THE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION DEPICTED IN TODAY%u2019S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND.
ELSEWHERE, GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE
ALEUTIANS, A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS.

SINCE THE 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD FROM THE MANUAL AND AUTO BLENDS ARE VERY
SIMILAR, THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WERE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
AUTOMATED TOOLS. THE BLOCKING RIDGE AT HIGH LATITUDES AND ASSOCIATED AMPLIFIED
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE EXPECTED LONGWAVE PATTERN YIELDS ENHANCED ODDS FOR NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.

AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA, AND TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BRIEFLY ADVANCE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REDUCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LATER IN THE PERIOD.
BEHIND AN
EXPECTED TROUGH AXIS, ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST
IN THE PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT ENHANCES THE
ODDS FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.

A RELATIVELY DRY, MILD PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA WITH THE PRIMARY
STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE STATE.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8.

MODEL OF THE DAY: 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO IMPROVED AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS.

6-10 day temperature to normal...



6-10 day precipitation to normal...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sflweatherguy:



Intermediate advisories like 2pm 8pm etc are only issued when there is a watch or warning somewhere from the storm.
Well maybe exception is for the colateral effects and the amount of damage that the system is causing to the NE caribbean, perhaps more than the direct hit of the storm; some of the islands have receive tropical storm winds and several days of torrential rain, specially the Leeward Islands, and Puerto Rico.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
Tropical storm or not, looks like a lot of the EC will be getting wet.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Again comes down to an opinion on 16/17 being enough above 14.7 (didn't check your numbers, but I will check my spreadsheet numbers) to call it "above average". You say yes, I say barely so. I still stick by my original opinion that using the 60 year average for comparison is misleading.


Out of curiosity, then, how far above average would the number(s) have to be in order for you to consider them above average?

FWIW, I still see 20 named storms before it's all over. No matter how one looks at it, that would be above average, no? :-)

Gotta go. TTYL...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13457
Quoting oracle28:


No, but *interpretations* of numbers is the source of debate, most times.


Yup. Like the GW debate that sometimes overloads this blog. The source and validity of the numbers comes into question along with the interpretation of what they indicate. Saying that numbers don't lie is like saying that life is black and white - there is no gray. Just plain wrong and short sighted.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting oracle28:


No, but *interpretations* of numbers is the source of debate, most times.

Neapolitan..
I think that the point here is, that Numbers are valid, in context.
In the case of Tropical Weather, the Numbers are primarily Historic.
I think we all agree that the Climate is showing signs of change, and basing any current (or future) argument on purely historic data is going to leave room for some query.

In purely Historic terms, we have never been here, before...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
10/13 - 10/17
"..FORECASTS FROM THE 00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN AND THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. THE SOLUTION FROM THE EUROPEAN MODEL WOULD FAVOR HEAVY RAINS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST, WHILE THE THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY LESS RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS GFS SOLUTIONS. CONCERNED PARTIES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...

10/18 - 10/21
..FOR LONG TIME-SCALE PHENOMENA, THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND BEGIN TO PROPAGATE INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC. THE POSITION OF THE ENHANCED PHASE OF THE MJO IS FAVORABLE FOR ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AND FOR IMPACTS TO THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... "

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Seastep:
I believe he was just poking some fun, Nea...


Possibly. Guess I just wasn't able to pick up the humor in that particular non-emoticoned, un-lol'ed insult. Silly me... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13457
Quoting Neapolitan:


Oh, now, don't just throw something like that out and go back into hiding; please stay and tell us all what it is you think is being exaggerated.

For the record, the name of my blog is "Weather By The Numbers", and the tagline is "A solid but breezy look at tropical and other extreme weather from a mathematical point of view. People may lie, but the numbers never do!" Can't get much more non-exaggerating than that, can one? :-)


No, but *interpretations* of numbers is the source of debate, most times.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 212 - 162

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.