Otto transitioning to a tropical storm
Subtropical Storm Otto, the 15th named storm of this very busy 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Otto is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and northern Lesser Antilles. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 2) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen in several locations over the past three days, and the St. Thomas Airport officially recorded 9.30" of rain so far from Otto. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for both the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico today. Martinique radar shows considerably less activity over the Lesser Antilles.
Figure 1. NASA MODIS image of Subtropical Storm Otto taken at 12:55pm EDT October 6, 2010.
Satellite loops show Otto's heaviest thunderstorms lie in two bands to the south, many hundreds of miles from the storm's center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system over Otto has pumped cold, dry air aloft into the storm, keeping it from being fully tropical. However, the upper low is weakening, and Otto has recently developed a burst of heavy thunderstorms near its center, and very tropical storm-like spiral bands are now developing to the east and south of Otto's center. Otto is fast becoming fully tropical, and will be called Tropical Storm Otto later today. The storm's newly developing spiral bands will mostly stay offshore, but a few heavy rain showers capable of dumping 1 - 2 inches of rain may affect the Turks and Caicos Islands today, as well as the northern Dominican Republic. The heavier rains in Otto's old rain band over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will continue to dump flooding rains in those locations through tonight. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday. Given the very warm waters of 28 - 29°C and low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots today, Otto may approach hurricane strength before high wind shear in excess of 20 knots impacts the storm Friday night.
Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Otto over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen in many regions. The strange ray-like pattern to the east of the radar location (the white "+" symbol) is due to mountains blocking the radar beam.
Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather has formed in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles west of Jamaica. The disturbance has a moderate area of intense thunderstorms that brought close to two inches of rain to Grand Cayman Island over the past day. The disturbance is under a high 15 - 25 knots of wind shear, and is not likely to develop significantly today. The disturbance is headed south at 10 - 15 mph, and will bring heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. None of the models develop the disturbance, but it does have some potential for slow development beginning on Friday when it will be off the coast of Nicaragua, in a region of lower wind shear and higher moisture. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday.
Monsoon flooding kills 139 in Asia
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 91 people and left 100 more missing. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 48 people, with 23 people still missing. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains of up to seven inches over the past week have also hit nearby Hainen Island in China. The resulting flooding was the worst in 50 years there, and killed one person and forced the evacuation of 55 villages with 213,000 people.
Press
I've been a subscriber for several years to NewScientist magazine, a weekly science news magazine that does a great job staying abreast of all the latest breaking science happenings. This week's October 4 issue features a 4-page section on Extreme Weather that I wrote for them as part of their "Instant Expert" series. If you haven't ever seen the magazine, I enthusiastically recommend taking a look.
If you're a fan of the geek humor xkcd webcomic, see if you can find me on the hilarious map of the "blogosphere" on comic artist Randall Munroe's latest xkcd comic. I like the disparity between my influence in September vs. March, but thought I should have been closer to the "Bay of Flame!" I also appeared in a mouse "rollover" text box in an xkcd comic during the Gulf oil disaster earlier this year.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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KOG, PDoug was unhappy with your attempt at snow last year.
Clueless, Not one place in Florida has a RAIN chance till Tuesday and even then only like 10-20%.
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
I see sunshine!!! Although the forecast calls for rain... :-(
Met Service of Jamaica
October 08, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Area of Low Pressure across the southwestern Caribbean.
Comment
The Area of Low Pressure is expected to remain nearly stationary at least until Monday with its associated Trough also expected to linger across Jamaica during this period.
24-HOURS FORECAST
This Morning… Partly cloudy with isolated showers across sections of northern parishes.
This Afternoon… Outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms across most parishes, lingering into the evening.
Tonight… Lingering showers mainly across northern parishes, partly cloudy elsewhere.
Maximum temperatures expected today:
Kingston… 32 degrees Celsius.
Montego Bay… 32 degrees Celsius.
3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Sat/Sun… Periods of showers and thunderstorms especially during the afternoon.
Mon… Outbreaks of showers and isolated thunderstorms
Regionally… Tropical Storm Otto is strengthening as it accelerates east-northeastward and at 4:00 a.m. was located approximately 835km south of Bermuda. Otto has induced a Trough across the central Caribbean.
kjb
What has you confused enough to use a full six question marks? :-)
Seriously, did you not notice the general trend toward warmer daytime highs and nightime lows? The general trend away from "sunny" and "clear" toward "partly cloudy" and "mostly sunny"? The general trend towards chances of rain, which, even though slight--10%, 20%--are infinitely higher than the near 0% we've seen over the past week? The general trend away from winds with a northerly component and toward those with a southerly, easterly, or westerly component?
My point was simply that the dry and cool is going away. it'll be back...just not in the next week.
Sorry. I'll try to use smaller words next time, if that'll help.
;-)
Because you're wrong with what you said...."The dryness here at the southern tip of Florida is--very thankfully--ending soon. Humidity levels and rain chances are finally forecast to return to normal (and even above normal) by Sunday as that nasty arid airmass vacates to the east.".....
Where is there a rain chance by Sunday? Or above normal?
How many buckets of rainwater would you like me to send? We have an over abundance here in Jamaica. Couple months ago we were rationing water, now we're flooding. What happened to moderation? Not too much, not too little. :-)
Yes I was. So this year I'm putting in my order early for a repeat of Feb 1899!!
Yeah, we had an unprecedented number of days with highs in the 40's and 50's here in Fort Myers. We had one day where it didn't get out of the thirties...maybe the same day you're reffering to...our high was 38 and rainy all day!! I've never seen that before! Highs in the 30's?!?!? Crazy! Too bad it's not another El Nino winter...the wet winter was our saving grace last season for fires...this season maybe not so much...
Oh oh.. someone mark and save this one.. he may regret it
My bad; the NWS updated the local Naples forecast at 9:31, while I was writing the comment. Here are the salient parts of the revised forecast:
Today: sunny; 86/67; 0% precip; 53% RH
Saturday: sunny; 87/67; 0%; 59%
Sunday: mostly sunny; 87/68; 0%; 64%
Monday: mostly sunny; 87/69; 0%; 64%
Tuesday: partly cloudy; 86/69; 30%; 71%
Wednesday: partly cloudy; 85/69; 20%; 77%
Thursday: mostly sunny; 85/69; 30%; 73%
Friday: scattered t-storms; 83/68; 60%; 68%
Saturday: scattered t-storms; 84/69; 40%; 68%
So, again: temps trending upward until the clouds come in (and not down as the calendar would dictate), cloud coverage increasing, rain chances increasing, relative humidity increasing. To put it another way, more summer-like next week than it is now. Which was my original point: it's far too early to say winter's set in and the season is over...at least here in South Florida.
Take a look at this when you get a chance. It's called a "water vapor loop".
Link
j/k
Its dropped 10deg! I was just out there and the fishies are very frisky now! This is one of the smaller ones.
File this one under the "be careful what u wish for" heading!
You should widen your view; larger loops clearly show the dry that's been hanging around slowly being pushed away, and most all weekly or 10-day forecasts for the southeast show a wetter--and more seasonal--pattern coming back.
Now you gotta keep in mind that is just surface temps. A few feet down its still steaming!
Nice catch there! Wish I was out there now instead of stuck at work. At least our week end will be nice
GFS 200 - 850mb Zonal Shear
If we get screwed this winter, i'm blaming you for sure now Doug.....LOL
Yes, agree. A few feet makes the difference. But still, it shows what a week of cooler temps can do. I think there is still plenty of heat in the GOM.
Check these out! The Red Bulls was too big to keep.
Otto is far reaching.
AMZ080-081530-
SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS
530 AM EDT FRI OCT 08 2010
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 22N TO 27N E OF 67W
TODAY
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
150 NM OF CENTER OF OTTO. HIGHEST WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT BEFORE
MOVING E OF AREA. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 150 NM NW QUADRANT. HIGHEST SEAS 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
210 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER
OF AREA E OF 72W WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT IN MIXED
SWELL. W OF 72W N OF 26N N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING
TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 8 FT
LATE. W OF 72W S OF 26N N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING TO
15 KT LATE. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 TO 10 FT LATE E OF
BAHAMAS 6 TO 8 FT AND 4 TO 6 FT W OF BAHAMAS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS NEAR TROPICAL STORM.
TONIGHT
N OF 25N E OF 70W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT
DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
S OF 25N E OF 70W N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT SW TO W WINDS
10 TO 15 KT S OF 23N E OF 68W. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. W OF
70W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT N OF 27N
LATE. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT W OF BAHAMAS AND 5 TO 8 FT IN PRIMARILY NE
SWELL E OF BAHAMAS EXCEPT SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT N OF 27N W OF
75W LATE.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT
N OF 27N W OF 68W NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF TROUGH N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
SEAS 4 TO 7 FT EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FT W OF BAHAMAS. S OF TROUGH S TO
SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
SE PART.
SUN THROUGH TUE
N OF 27N NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT BECOMING
VARIABLE WINDS W OF 70W MON AND TUE. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. N OF TROUGH
TO 27N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT W OF BAHAMAS
AND SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT E OF BAHAMAS. S OF TROUGH S TO SE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S
OF 25N.
$$
WTNT32 KNHC 081431
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 08 2010
...OTTO STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...THE EIGHTH OF THE SEASON...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 64.0W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
My latest blog update on Otto, please stop by and check it out Link
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Northeast wind between 5 and 11 mph.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. East wind between 6 and 9 mph.
Columbus Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind between 3 and 10 mph.
Monday Night: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
Tuesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind between 6 and 10 mph.
I'm always guilty of wishcasting deep south snowstorms!
He is a Hurricane. Latest 11AM EDT advisory is out early today :O)
HURRICANE OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 08 2010
...OTTO STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...THE EIGHTH OF THE SEASON...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 64.0W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. OTTO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
My forecast in May of this year was 15-18 storms, 9 or 10 Hurricanes, and 5 majors.
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