Otto transitioning to a tropical storm
Subtropical Storm Otto, the 15th named storm of this very busy 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Otto is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and northern Lesser Antilles. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 2) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen in several locations over the past three days, and the St. Thomas Airport officially recorded 9.30" of rain so far from Otto. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for both the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico today. Martinique radar shows considerably less activity over the Lesser Antilles.
Figure 1. NASA MODIS image of Subtropical Storm Otto taken at 12:55pm EDT October 6, 2010.
Satellite loops show Otto's heaviest thunderstorms lie in two bands to the south, many hundreds of miles from the storm's center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system over Otto has pumped cold, dry air aloft into the storm, keeping it from being fully tropical. However, the upper low is weakening, and Otto has recently developed a burst of heavy thunderstorms near its center, and very tropical storm-like spiral bands are now developing to the east and south of Otto's center. Otto is fast becoming fully tropical, and will be called Tropical Storm Otto later today. The storm's newly developing spiral bands will mostly stay offshore, but a few heavy rain showers capable of dumping 1 - 2 inches of rain may affect the Turks and Caicos Islands today, as well as the northern Dominican Republic. The heavier rains in Otto's old rain band over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will continue to dump flooding rains in those locations through tonight. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday. Given the very warm waters of 28 - 29°C and low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots today, Otto may approach hurricane strength before high wind shear in excess of 20 knots impacts the storm Friday night.
Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Otto over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen in many regions. The strange ray-like pattern to the east of the radar location (the white "+" symbol) is due to mountains blocking the radar beam.
Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather has formed in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles west of Jamaica. The disturbance has a moderate area of intense thunderstorms that brought close to two inches of rain to Grand Cayman Island over the past day. The disturbance is under a high 15 - 25 knots of wind shear, and is not likely to develop significantly today. The disturbance is headed south at 10 - 15 mph, and will bring heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. None of the models develop the disturbance, but it does have some potential for slow development beginning on Friday when it will be off the coast of Nicaragua, in a region of lower wind shear and higher moisture. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday.
Monsoon flooding kills 139 in Asia
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 91 people and left 100 more missing. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 48 people, with 23 people still missing. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains of up to seven inches over the past week have also hit nearby Hainen Island in China. The resulting flooding was the worst in 50 years there, and killed one person and forced the evacuation of 55 villages with 213,000 people.
Press
I've been a subscriber for several years to NewScientist magazine, a weekly science news magazine that does a great job staying abreast of all the latest breaking science happenings. This week's October 4 issue features a 4-page section on Extreme Weather that I wrote for them as part of their "Instant Expert" series. If you haven't ever seen the magazine, I enthusiastically recommend taking a look.
If you're a fan of the geek humor xkcd webcomic, see if you can find me on the hilarious map of the "blogosphere" on comic artist Randall Munroe's latest xkcd comic. I like the disparity between my influence in September vs. March, but thought I should have been closer to the "Bay of Flame!" I also appeared in a mouse "rollover" text box in an xkcd comic during the Gulf oil disaster earlier this year.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
Wave Height (WVHT): 22.3 ft
Average Period (APD): 9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.21 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 58.5 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 57.0 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 55.6 °F
Except the fact it's going southward....
Is that the remnants of Nicole, send via US East Coast Trough Express??
Our interest is weather, no matter where on earth it happens.... N Atlantic, Pacific, India, etc. I think there's nothing wrong trying to be informative, and to view the whole picture.... after all, man.....sorry for any inconveniences.... .
Yeah.... bad post,,,,, I fixed it...
Didn't feel it but alot of my friends did.
How is that possible? Is the air hotter or colder than the ocean?
Surely it is related to this other episode:
Cuba
Magnitude 5.1
Date-Time
* Monday, October 04, 2010 at 11:48:34 UTC
* Monday, October 04, 2010 at 07:48:34 AM at epicenter
Location 19.807°N, 75.416°W
Depth 26 km (16.2 miles)
It is sinking slowly southward.
Most probable, possibly soon named Paula.....
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Besides the tremor, we had a huge downpour this afternoon. The ground is so saturated that the streets were flooded in minutes. So we've gone from drought to flood in a matter of months. Either too much or too little. Can't win. Stay dry.
Slowly south or southwestward per the ECMWF computer models.
Take a look here
Link
As for a possible track, this is probably going to be problematic as systems in the southwest Caribbean are notoriously difficult to forecast due to weak steering currents in this area. There are quite a few scenarios that are possible with this system and I’m not sold on any one solution right now. A couple of these scenarios include that the trough of low pressure does eventually track eastward and is able to pull this northward and out of the Caribbean later next week. If this happens, then it would pose a threat to Cuba, south Florida and the Bahamas.
Another scenario is that this system never gets picked up and meanders around the southwest Caribbean and eventually comes ashore in Central America.
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The result becomes a community that loses it's community. Doc isn't going to be happy with the time on site numbers. And ultimately, many will vote with their wallet when it comes time to renew.
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I see a cloud....moving WEST!!!!
Think you're right.... To make this blog dinamic Everybody here should be posting, asking, telling, learning, teaching (those experienced - I'm not), bringing new ideas, new points of view, with an open mind.... surely, Weather related.... No matter from where on EARTH...
Maybe everyone is out enjoying the "high" that is sitting over much of the CONUS related land fall areas
Dont think that I am discounting all the islands ..just not the CONUS
Fine. The average is ~14/8/4 WITH 2005.
We're at 15/7/5.
Are we really in a time of hyperactivie seasons or is a lot of this due to hyperactivity of the forecasters?
I dont know if I would classify it as hyperactivity of the forecasters I think its something that we are all feeling ...information overload and how to digest it. The tools that the forcasters have today allows for them to identify storms earlier ...maybe in the near future they will modify the requirements for naming tropical systems
ABNT20 KNHC 072339
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 7 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OTTO...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK
ISLAND AND ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
ABNT20 KNHC 072339
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 7 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OTTO...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK
ISLAND AND ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
As recently as a couple of years ago, this was a community. It has been in decline for a while now. The way it is now, something like the blog involvement in Portlight wouldn't happen. Even discussing such a thing now would probably get flagged by a certain few around here.
I agree with what you are saying regarding the numbers... But ten bucks doesn't buy a whole lot of bandwidth. A decline in memberships will mean nothing when compared to the decline in ad revenues because of the low numbers.
In the end, it will be like most things in society today. The vocal few will get their way while the majority move on to other places and things, and run somebody else's ad revenues up.
Another fine point. Thanks, Cap'n.
+ 1000
So true Captain dan!
We also might want to pay attention to north of Otto. Check out the 999 mb low north of Otto on the ECMWF in 48 hours.
Check it out, its on the GFS too.
The GGEM also has it north of Otto.
And the UKMET too
Even on the NOGAPS.
Interesting indeed. They all show something brewing in the Caribbean too, but don't develop it.. except the ECMWF has a hurricane out of it.
But you still haven't answered Neapoitan's original question:
"How is naming a storm "dangerous"?"
Oh-My-Gosh...
We also might want to pay attention to north of Otto. Check out the 999 mb low north of Otto on the ECMWF in 48 hours.
Carefull, don't mention that low....
This blog won't support 13 (one over a dozen).... See post 301...
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