Hurricane Otto's deluge continues; world extreme heat record of 136.4°F bogus?
The deluge continues over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands from Hurricane Otto, which is bringing a fourth straight day of heavy rains. Otto is the eighth hurricane of this very active 2010 hurricane season; our tally now stands at 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Otto's rains have caused a fair degree of trouble in the islands. According to Wikipedia, Heavy downpours in the U.S. Virgin Islands caused flooding across several local roads. In Saint Croix, a roadway section leading into Enfield Green collapsed on the night of October 6, temporarily cutting the south-side neighborhood off to vehicle traffic until a makeshift roadway through Carlton Estate was created the next day. On the island's North Shore in La Vallee, landslides and localized flooding in low-lying areas created some issues. There were no reports of major damage, however, and the roads remained passable. Torrential floods across the British Virgin Islands toppled several cars and caused extensive damage to utility lines and drainage pipes; dozens of people (mostly in Road Town) were left without power and water. An estimated 100 homes were flooded in Saint Lucia, and a fishing village on the island's east coast was declared a disaster zone. Schools, businesses and government offices across all of the Virgin Islands and in Saint Kitts and Nevis were closed until further notice.
In Puerto Rico, heavy rainfalls fell across the municipality of Utuado on October 7. As a result, a road to a neighborhood was made inaccessible after being severely damaged by gushing waters when parts of the Arecibo River overflowed. That same day, a landslide dragged away a communication post along the road and made it impossible for larger vehicles--including ambulances--to access the site. Meanwhile, fourteen families in the municipality of Ponce were cut off from communication because of several landslides. A residence alongside a road suffered significant damage and its inhabitants were forced to evacuate. Furthermore, a district in Cayey was isolated after a bridge collapsed, while burst riverbanks caused flooding across streets, trapping dozens of families in their homes. Across the island, 40 roads were closed due to torrential rainfall, and 19 streets had at least one lane closed.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Otto.
Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and flash flood warnings are posted on these islands through tonight. Martinique radar shows considerably less activity over the Lesser Antilles.
Satellite imagery shows a well-organized storm with an expanding Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds covering the center. Infrared satellite imagery shows a region of intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops, with the suggestion of a warm spot--an eye--forming. Otto should continue to intensify until Saturday morning, when wind shear will quickly rise to a very high 30+ knots.
Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from Otto over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this week shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen in many regions. The strange ray-like pattern to the east of the radar location (the white "+" symbol) is due to mountains blocking the radar beam.
Western Caribbean disturbance
An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua, has only a small amount of intense thunderstorms, but is showing some spin. The disturbance is nearly stationary, and is under a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Some dry air in the Western Caribbean is interfering with development. I expect the storm will begin to build some significant heavy thunderstorms over the weekend, bringing heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua. None of the models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression, but it does have some potential for slow development over the next few days, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. The ECMWF model has the disturbance drifting northward next week and crossing Central Cuba on Wednesday or Thursday. Most of the other models keep the storms confined to the Caribbean.
A challenge to the validity of the world extreme heat record of 136.4°F (58°C) at Al Aziza, Libya
One of the "sacred cows" of world weather extremes has been the widely reported "hottest temperature ever recorded on earth", a reading of 58°C (136.4°F) reported from Al Azizia, Libya on Sept. 13, 1922. In a remarkable piece of research, our featured Weather Extremes blogger Christopher C. Burt concludes: the temperature observations at Al Azizia prior to 1927 (when the site and instruments were changed) are obviously invalid. The shelter housing the thermometer was most likely over exposed and measuring heat radiating of off the black-tarred concrete of the terrace on which it was placed.
Has Mr. Burt slain one of meteorology's most sacred cows? You be the judge. Check out the full story at his blog.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 — Blog Index
Thanks up to 132.75 and slowly rising :O). Does anyone know what the official ACE forecast was for the Tropical Atlantic region this year??
7Oct 03pmGMT - - 23.8n68.0w - - 60mph - - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#6
7Oct 06pmGMT - - 23.7n67.8w - - 50knots - - - 992mb -- NHC-ATCF *23.6n67.9w
7Oct 09pmGMT - - 24.0n67.6w - - 60mph - - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#7
8Oct 12amGMT - - 23.9n67.0w - - 55knots - - - 992mb -- NHC-ATCF *23.8n67.1w
8Oct 03amGMT - - 24.1n66.6w - - 60mph - - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv. #8
8Oct 06amGMT - - 24.4n66.1w - - 60knots - - - 989mb -- NHC-ATCF
8Oct 09amGMT - - 24.8n65.5w - - 70mph - - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv. #8
8Oct 12pmGMT - - 25.4n64.6w - - 60knots - - - 986mb -- NHC-ATCF
H.Otto
8Oct 03pmGMT - - 25.9n64.0w - - 75mph - - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv. #10
50knots=~57.5mph=93.6km/h __ 60mph=~96.6km/h
55knots=~63.3mph=~101.9km/h __ 65mph=~104.6km/h
60knots=~69mph=~111.1km/h __ 70mph=~112.7km/h
75mph =~120.7km/h
MaximumSustainedWind speeds are rounded to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots
Copy&paste 23.8n68.0w, 23.7n67.8w, 24.0n67.6w, 23.9n67.0w, 24.1n66.6w-24.4n66.1w, 24.4n66.1w-24.8n65.5w, 24.8n65.5w-25.4n64.6w, 25.4n64.6w-25.9n64.0w, ngd into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours
Can you post a link or a pic?
Satellite Loop
Not all forecasting entities released ACE predictions, but here are a few who did.
--UK Met Office: 13-27 storms, with 20 most likely (against an average of 12.4). ACE of 90-319, with 204 most likely (against an average of 131)
--NOAA: 14-20/8-12/4-6, with an ACE of 170% to 260% of the median. (ACE at or greater than 175% of median are considered hyperactive.)
--Colorado State: 18-10-5, with an ACE of 185
MARK
26.01N/63.25W
THREAT TO SHIPPING ONLY
now that is very impressive. If you believe in Ying Yang or balance, maybe this would be the calm before the storm!?! I suspect at least 1 TS to make landfall in the gulf from the tail end of a front.
Link
looks like 2010 is only 25 ACE from "hyperactive" status.
Are you on the ISS?
This may be a stupid question, but being "stupid" when it comes to weather; what is the possibility of Otto reaching the CV islands and then curving back across the ATL towards the Carib again? I know that CV season is pretty much done, but has that ever happened in recorded history?
Discuss, discuss...
Those aren't the Cape Verde Islands, but rather the Azores and later the Canary Islands. The Cape Verdes are further south.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEPRESSION BOB02-2010
17:30 PM IST October 8 2010
======================================
Subject: Depression Overland Bangladesh
At 12:00 PM UTC, Depression BOB02-2010 The depression over Gangetic West Bengal moved north-northeastwards and lays centered over Bangladesh, close to Dhakka.
The system would move northeastwards and weaken gradually into a low pressure area during next 12 hrs.
I agree - it has been a great year for the US and a not-so-bad year for the rest of us and we should be thankful indeed. I am a bit concerned about the statement that if the disturbance develops in the Caribbean it will affect Central America etc. Are the steering currents pointing a more westerly track for storms in this area in the coming weeks? Thanks!
yes, i paid 7 million dollars to ride up here. Expensive, but the view is great. :)
Yea, it is great now after a brutal summer. (I live in The Woodlands)
And that dry air is holding firm. I really thought that the GOM was ripe for one strong hurricane and one TS in October but I never anticipated such an early season strong front to dive all the way down into the NW Caribbean and hold the dry air for so long. It still may happen but as each day passes the threat becomes less and less.
Viewing: 1 - 51
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 — Blog Index