98L well-organized; a 5-year drought in U.S. major hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on October 11, 2010

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A strong tropical disturbance (98L) is centered near the northeastern coast of Honduras along the border with Nicaragua. This system is close to tropical depression status, but development is currently being hampered by the storm's proximity to land. Satellite imagery shows a well-organized system with plenty of spin, a modest amount of intense thunderstorm activity, and some respectable low-level spiral bands. Water vapor satellite loops reveal that 98L has been able to substantially moisten the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean over the past day, and dry air will be less of an impediment to development than it was yesterday. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS satellite image of 98L taken 12:35pm EDT Sunday October 10, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 98L
The west-northwest to northwest movement of 98L at 10 mph should take the center far enough away from the coast of Honduras this evening to substantially increase the storm's odds of development. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay mostly in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday afternoon, then increase to the high range, above 20 knots, for the remainder of the week. NHC is calling for a 60% chance of 98L becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning; I'd put these odds higher, at 70%. The computer models predict 98L will continue on a west-northwest to northwest motion through Tuesday, which would take the storm close to the coast of Belize/Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday night. At that point, it is possible that a trough of low pressure over the eastern U.S. will reach far enough south to pull 98L to the northeast across western Cuba and the Florida Keys by Thursday, as predicted by the latest 8pm EDT (0Z) run of the GFDL model. Two other models, the GFS and HWRF models, keep the storm confined to the Western Caribbean for the rest of the week, though. The ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET models do not develop 98L into a tropical depression. In any case, Honduras, northeastern Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands can expect heavy rain from 98L over the next three days. Heavy rains from 98L will begin to affect Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday, and perhaps northern Guatemala and the western half of Cuba as well. These rains may potentially last many days and cause significant flooding problems.

The U.S. drought in major hurricanes
On average, the U.S. gets hit by one major Category 3 or stronger hurricane every two years. This year, the team of hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University called for a 76% chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. in their June forecast. However, the odds of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. are rapidly dwindling. Over the past fifty years, the only Category 3 or stronger hurricanes to hit the U.S. after October 1 were Hilda (October 3, 1964), Opal (October 4, 1995), and Wilma (October 24, 2005). Hilda and Opal were already named tropical storms as of October 1, so Wilma was the major hurricane that formed after October 1 to hit the U.S. during this period. Although we still need to keep a wary eye on developments in the Western Caribbean over the next few weeks, the odds are that 2010 will join 1951 as the only year to have five or more major hurricanes in the Atlantic, but no landfalling major hurricane in the U.S. (1958 is also listed as such a year, but a re-analysis effort is showing that Hurricane Helene hit North Carolina as a major hurricane that year.) If 2010 finishes without a major hurricane hitting the U.S., this will mark the first such five-year stretch since 1910 - 1914.


Figure 2. Hurricane Wilma over South Florida as a Category 3 hurricane on October 24, 2005. Wilma was the last major hurricane to hit the U.S.

However, some caveats are required. Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, which both made landfall in the U.S. in 2008 as top-end Category 2 storms with 110 mph winds, would probably have been classified as Category 3 hurricanes had they occurred early in the 20th century. This is because in past, when there were not any reliable wind measurements in the vicinity of a landfalling hurricane (a common occurrence), the storm was classified based on its central pressure. Gustav and Ike had central pressures of 957 and 952 mb, respectively, which would have qualified them as Category 3 storms. Similarly, Hurricane Floyd of 1999 and Hurricane Isabel of 2002 (though not within the last five years) were strong Category 2 hurricanes with 105 mph winds at landfall, but had central pressures of 956 mb. These hurricanes would also have been classified as Category 3 hurricanes in the past. There are many storms from the 1930s, 1940s, and 1950s that will likely change their landfall classification once re-analysis efforts are completed over the next few years. One case is Hurricane Ten of 1949, which is listed as having winds of a low-end Category 4 hurricane (135 mph) just before landfall, which would make it the only October major hurricane to make landfall in Texas. However, the hurricane is only given a Category 2 strength at landfall, based on its central pressure.

Prior to 1960, there were five major hurricanes that hit Florida in October. Most notable of these is Hurricane King, which hit downtown Miami on October 18, 1950, as a Category 3 hurricane.

Record quiet hurricane and typhoon seasons in the Pacific
Over in the Western Pacific, it is currently the quietest typhoon season on record, according to statistics computed by forecaster Paul Stanko at the NWS office on Guam. On average, by this point in the season, there should have been 21 named storms, 13 typhoons, and 3 supertyphoons (storms with 150+ mph winds.) So far in 2010, there have been just 12 named storms, 6 typhoons, and no supertyphoons. The record lows for the Western Pacific (since 1951) are 18 named storms, 9 typhoons, and 0 supertyphoons. We have a good chance of beating or tying all of those records. Over the in the Eastern Pacific, it has also been a near record-quiet season. On average, the Eastern Pacific has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes in a season. So far in 2010, there have been 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The record quietest season since 1966 was the year 1977, when the Eastern Pacific had 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes. Climatology suggests that on average, we can expect just one more named storm in the Eastern Pacific this late in the season, so there is a good chance that the 2010 season is over. La Niña is largely responsible to the quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season, due in part to the cool sea surface temperatures it brought. La Niña also commonly causes less active Western Pacific typhoon seasons, since the warmest waters there shift closer to Asia, reducing the amount of time storms have over water.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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696. alvarig1263
8:13 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Wunderground's Hurricane Hunter Obs. page for 98L shows HH Aircraft has found 75 mph winds and 999mb pressure. Is this correct with the live recon data?
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
695. jonelu
8:04 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
The water in the Gulf can still maintain a tropical cyclone..The Western Atlantic still looks rather toasty.


Its amazing to me how warm the Atlantic is when that is where most of the major activity has been....
Member Since: October 31, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 884
694. portcharlotte
7:40 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
I agree with Bastardi on this....this is where government agencies can find themselves in lawsuits!

MONDAY
I HAVE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS.


Actually 2 things.. an air mass thunderstorm in October here and TPC, with a verified vortex with gales in all quads, 1001 mb at 16 north, originating in the tropics, stonewalling an upgrade. This can only be for verification purposes! What possible reason could they have beside that. They "upgraded" to a 100% chance with warnings to be issued.

It has to be that if its suddenly upgraded it will be within a 48 hour time period that had less than 50% chance. In reality, this should have been upgraded yesterday, but I have spoken on that matter already. But this is absurd. There are over 2 dozen HD reports of winds over 40 kts and there seems to be a stronger structure west of the center!

The storm could reach hurricane intensity before getting to the Yucatan tomorrow night and Wednesday. The idea I have now is a turn east later this week and a milling around in the western Caribbean in a weakened state. However early next week the pattern will grow ripe for re-intensification and move at Florida of a tropical storm or hurricane is in the cards next week.

This incident for weather enthusiasts to see continues to support the ideas I have on how to name system in an objective fashion and also supports the idea that subjective agendas in terms of classification are involved in this process. There is no excuse for this not being named as soon as the first gale was found as the plane approached. and the delaying until 5 pm, which would put it into a more acceptable verification from the weekend hatchings has got to be considered as a prime reason. There is simply no leg to stand on as far as what they did at 2 pm.

A 100% chance of what is occurring. A new low has been reached in tropical forecasting. Warnings issued with the first advisory. Simply amazing.

ciao for now ****

Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
693. DontAnnoyMe
7:39 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
692. Neapolitan
7:38 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
(moved to new)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13742
691. CosmicEvents
7:37 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Paula seems perilously close to CA.
Could hinder development.
Nice outflow is noted to the North and West.
Gonna' be one interesting "doom cone" I think.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5677
690. ecflweatherfan
7:34 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting FLstormwarning:


That is not Jeff9641. This is an imposter causing trouble. Jeff9641 never said that. He did say that he feels Paula will be a hurricane.


Yeah fully aware :-) ... I like the insight that Jeff9641 gives. This is the "evil im-poster". My NWS has not, as of this morning, inserted PoP into the forecast at all this week... might change a little bit this afternoon with the update
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
689. hydrus
7:33 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting Seastep:
I am surprised they are waiting until 5pm, but I guess they need the time to prepare all the products.
These water temperatures do not seem to cool off very much the next 30 days....Animated 30 day forecast...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22294
688. 7544
7:33 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
by 5 they may have to go 50 to 60 mph imo pressure still droping hmmmmm
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
687. MiamiHurricanes09
7:33 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
New Blog
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
686. portcharlotte
7:33 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Personally, and IMO I think it is wrong to wait until 5PM. Weather does not occur or follow the NHC schedule. Having worked in a local NWS station we were always trained to issue warnings as soon as it became apparent they were necessary. Waitng for 30 minutes is okay but this system has been at least a depression since sunrise. For mariners its a life and death issue not an issue of what is convenient for NHC. This a controversial call by NHC.

Quoting Seastep:
I am surprised they are waiting until 5pm, but I guess they need the time to prepare all the products.
Quoting Seastep:
I am surprised they are waiting until 5pm, but I guess they need the time to prepare all the products.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
684. Starwoman
7:32 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
New Blog -> Paula formed
Member Since: September 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 196
682. CyclonicVoyage
7:30 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Paula getting stronger.

19:25:00Z 15.817N 83.817W 959.2 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 363 meters
(~ 1,191 feet) 1000.0 mb
(~ 29.53 inHg)
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
681. Tazmanian
7:30 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon has found a pressure of 999.9mb. The system appears to be intensifying at a steady rate. Note the coordinates.

192430 1550N 08350W 9598 00357 9999 +228 +070 203005 010 006 002 00




wow
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
679. MiamiHurricanes09
7:29 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Recon has found a pressure of 999.9mb. The system appears to be intensifying at a steady rate.

Note the coordinates.

192430 1550N 08350W 9598 00357 9999 228 070 203005 010 006 002 00
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
678. Tazmanian
7:29 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
1000.0 mb
(~ 29.53 inHg)
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
676. matilda101
7:28 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
NWS out of Miami upped the % of rain in Miami to 60% Tues 70% Tues nite 50% both Wed and Wed nite
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
675. Seastep
7:28 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting beell:
May have to make some changes to this one over the next day or three-but what the heck. Maybe a last chance to guess for a while.

Cut-off low over the central plains will drop into the lower MS Valley and deamplify tomorrow evening with strong ridging building in over the western half of the GOM in its wake. Probably strong enough troughing to induce a slow northward drift to bring Paula somewhere between the western tip of Cuba and the Cayman Islands. Increasing shear and more than just a little dry air might limit intensity to a CAT1 on Wednesday.

A La Nina-Alberta Clipper undergoes some southern amplification over the midwest and should begin to erode the the tropical ridge hanging on over the SW Atlantic on Thursday. Paula turns E/ENE towards the Bahamas and out to sea-along 22N as a WAG). I think the modeled timetable for this storm is on the slow side-may move a little quicker. Not believing this thing will be stuck in the western Caribbean for 10 days (more of a wish on that one!). An early NE turn on the S side of Cuba maybe the worst case scenario for intensification. The sweet spot in the upper anticyclone and almost decent moisture should reside here.

The northern side of Cuba would seem to offer a far more hostile enviroment for a small-ish CAT1 with strong westerly flow from 500mb on up and a continuing issue with dry air. Land interaction with Cuba would also limit potential.


Appreciate the sharing your thoughts, Beell.

Thanks.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
674. pottery
7:27 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
In the Meantime..
a nice 'necklace' of cloud from -10 to 50W, below 10N, across the Tropical Atlantic.
within the ITCZ.
Expecting the rains to return here after a 2 week break, around the middle of next week leading into the Full Moon.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795
673. hydrus
7:26 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
The water in the Gulf can still maintain a tropical cyclone..The Western Atlantic still looks rather toasty.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22294
672. reedzone
7:26 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


I am calling your bluff... never has it been mentioned in their discussions over the last few days of a tropical cyclone impacting ECFL... please read:

000
FXUS62 KMLB 110745
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...DLM RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA MAINTAINS
A DRY/STABLE WX PATTERN THRU DAYBREAK TUE. DLM MOISTURE WILL CREEP
UP OVER THE SRN CWA AS S/SE WINDS AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE TAP
HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS/GREATER ANTILLES. HOWEVER...A
SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H85-H70 LYR WILL LIMIT VERTICAL
MOTION WELL BLO 10KFT WHILE THE MEAN FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH ANY SHRA ONSHORE...SHOULD ANY FORM TO BEGIN
WITH. NIL POPS TO CONTINUE AREAWIDE.

A WEAK PGRAD WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE TO FORM AROUND
MIDDAY...WITH GREATER INLAND PROGRESS S OF ORLANDO/CAPE CANAVERAL
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE DLM RIDGE AXIS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE MODIFIED THE AIRMASS ENOUGH TO KEEP MAX/MIN
TEMPS WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO (M80S/M60S).

TUE-SUN...ECM/GFS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH
PREV RUNS SHOWING A MAINLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MID/UPR PATTERN REMAINS FLAT/ZONAL WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SHEARING OUT OVER THE SE THROUGH WED...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND AND
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WHICH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ERN
CONUS/WRN ATLC THU/FRI...PUSHING A VORTLOBE SWD THROUGH FL.

SFC RIDGE OVER CTRL FL WILL HOLD SWAY THROUGH WED NGT. SURGE OF
CARIBBEAN MOISTURE MAKES A BRIEF RUN AT SOUTH FL TUE NGT/WED...
BUT GETS BLACKED AND SHUNTED BACK SWD
AS SFC HIGH PRES AND N/NE
FLOW SPREADS SWD ACROSS CTRL FL BEHIND FRONTAL BDRY STARTING FRI.

MOISTURE RETURN MINIMAL AHEAD OF FRONT...SO STILL LOOKING AT A DRY
FCST. MAXES WILL AVG A COUPLE DEGS ABOVE CLIMO AND MINS NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH ABOUT THU...WITH FRI THRU SUN ABOUT A CAT OR SO COOLER THAN
NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT.


That's the impostor Jeff9642, not Jeff9641
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7436
671. ShenValleyFlyFish
7:25 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
A donut hole..lmao..
Now i get it Tim Horton's. Canada's gift to the world. (Not to discount the breathtaking sport of Curling).
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
669. matilda101
7:24 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
NHC has named it "Paula" on the satellite close up page
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
668. dracko19
7:23 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Paula looks like a playah! This could be very interesting this week. Models are never very good at handling storms that stall or move extra slowly. It may be some time before we really know how strong this gets or where it will ultimately head. The problem for the NHC is what if it gets caught up in a front and heads NE quickly in a few days. If they don't predict that now, people will get caught off guard and not enough time to prepare if it heads towards CONUS. On the other hand, if they predict that kind of thing now without any real model guidance to confirm it, they would look like the boy/cried/wolf. Tough call especially with a few models aimed at FL.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 310
667. DontAnnoyMe
7:21 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY WITH A SMALL TIGHT
LOW ALONG IT ALONG THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS ATTM...WITH RECON
REPORTING FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. THUS THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 5 PM.
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST MOVES THIS LOW NW NEXT 48
HOURS...REACHING NEAR COZUMEL...THEN HALTS IT IN RESPONSE TO
SINKING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES ACROSS THE
GULF...AND TURNS IT VERY SLOWLY NE THEN E ALONG 20.5N-21N. THIS
WILL GIVE THIS SYSTEM OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND
INCREASE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE BROADER REGION. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE NW CARIB NEXT 48
HOURS AND BEYOND...LIKELY REACHING TO NEAR 11 FT BY MORNING IN
NE QUAD OF LOW. STRONGEST WINDS INITIALLY LIKELY TO REMAIN
CLOSE...WITHIN 60-90 NM PER CURRENT STLT SUGGESTIONS. TROPICAL


Link please.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
666. hydrus
7:21 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22294
664. 7544
7:20 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
looks like the 1st cone may be at 21 to 23n south of fla then est after reading the above post maybe not saying it will lol
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
663. Seastep
7:20 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
I am surprised they are waiting until 5pm, but I guess they need the time to prepare all the products.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
662. MILLERTIME1
7:19 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Big Nor'easter on tap for later in the week.
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
661. hydrus
7:18 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quite a bit of warm water north of Western Cuba too. That could keep a powerful hurricane energized for a bit...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22294
660. ecflweatherfan
7:18 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9642:
I just spoke with the Mets at the Melbourne NWS and they said this could easily be a ECFL storm. This thing could very well reach Cat 3 status!


I am calling your bluff... never has it been mentioned in their discussions over the last few days of a tropical cyclone impacting ECFL... please read:

000
FXUS62 KMLB 110745
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...DLM RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA MAINTAINS
A DRY/STABLE WX PATTERN THRU DAYBREAK TUE. DLM MOISTURE WILL CREEP
UP OVER THE SRN CWA AS S/SE WINDS AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE TAP
HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS/GREATER ANTILLES. HOWEVER...A
SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H85-H70 LYR WILL LIMIT VERTICAL
MOTION WELL BLO 10KFT WHILE THE MEAN FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH ANY SHRA ONSHORE...SHOULD ANY FORM TO BEGIN
WITH. NIL POPS TO CONTINUE AREAWIDE.

A WEAK PGRAD WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE TO FORM AROUND
MIDDAY...WITH GREATER INLAND PROGRESS S OF ORLANDO/CAPE CANAVERAL
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE DLM RIDGE AXIS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE MODIFIED THE AIRMASS ENOUGH TO KEEP MAX/MIN
TEMPS WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO (M80S/M60S).

TUE-SUN...ECM/GFS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH
PREV RUNS SHOWING A MAINLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MID/UPR PATTERN REMAINS FLAT/ZONAL WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SHEARING OUT OVER THE SE THROUGH WED...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND AND
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WHICH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ERN
CONUS/WRN ATLC THU/FRI...PUSHING A VORTLOBE SWD THROUGH FL.

SFC RIDGE OVER CTRL FL WILL HOLD SWAY THROUGH WED NGT. SURGE OF
CARIBBEAN MOISTURE MAKES A BRIEF RUN AT SOUTH FL TUE NGT/WED...
BUT GETS BLACKED AND SHUNTED BACK SWD
AS SFC HIGH PRES AND N/NE
FLOW SPREADS SWD ACROSS CTRL FL BEHIND FRONTAL BDRY STARTING FRI.

MOISTURE RETURN MINIMAL AHEAD OF FRONT...SO STILL LOOKING AT A DRY
FCST. MAXES WILL AVG A COUPLE DEGS ABOVE CLIMO AND MINS NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH ABOUT THU...WITH FRI THRU SUN ABOUT A CAT OR SO COOLER THAN
NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
659. MiamiHurricanes09
7:18 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
As you probably know, 98L has been renumbered into tropical storm Paula and advisories will be initiated at 5p.m EDT. Additionally, the initial intensity for the advisory will be 45mph and 1001mb.

AL, 18, 2010101118, , BEST, 0, 157N, 837W, 40, 1001, TS
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
658. PrivateIdaho
7:18 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:



thank you lol
Hi Taz!...Shen was talking about you...lol
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
657. CaicosRetiredSailor
7:15 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY WITH A SMALL TIGHT
LOW ALONG IT ALONG THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS ATTM...WITH RECON
REPORTING FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. THUS THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 5 PM.
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST MOVES THIS LOW NW NEXT 48
HOURS...REACHING NEAR COZUMEL...THEN HALTS IT IN RESPONSE TO
SINKING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES ACROSS THE
GULF...AND TURNS IT VERY SLOWLY NE THEN E ALONG 20.5N-21N. THIS
WILL GIVE THIS SYSTEM OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND
INCREASE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE BROADER REGION. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE NW CARIB NEXT 48
HOURS AND BEYOND...LIKELY REACHING TO NEAR 11 FT BY MORNING IN
NE QUAD OF LOW. STRONGEST WINDS INITIALLY LIKELY TO REMAIN
CLOSE...WITHIN 60-90 NM PER CURRENT STLT SUGGESTIONS. TROPICAL
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
655. reedzonemyhero
7:14 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Atlantic Floater 2 = Paula.
Link
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
654. hydrus
7:14 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting FLdewey:

It's what the Canadians call a donut hole. (insert inappropriate moose dropping joke here)

Maybe Paula will head for Ontario in honor of the date.
A donut hole..lmao..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22294
653. Seastep
7:13 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting pottery:

Seeing that.
Difficult one to plan for...


I never look at the really long range, but if you want to see real doom, this is an entertaining run from an earlier post. Link
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
652. ParanoidAndroid
7:13 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Floater on NHC site says Paula (18L)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 106
651. pottery
7:12 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


That's a very good question.

Good to see you...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795
650. Tazmanian
7:12 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


Re ported LOL



thank you lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
647. beell
7:10 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
May have to make some changes to this one over the next day or three-but what the heck. Maybe a last chance to guess for a while.

Cut-off low over the central plains will drop into the lower MS Valley and deamplify tomorrow evening with strong ridging building in over the western half of the GOM in its wake. Probably strong enough troughing to induce a slow northward drift to bring Paula somewhere between the western tip of Cuba and the Cayman Islands. Increasing shear and more than just a little dry air might limit intensity to a CAT1 on Wednesday.

A La Nina-Alberta Clipper undergoes some southern amplification over the midwest and should begin to erode the the tropical ridge hanging on over the SW Atlantic on Thursday. Paula turns E/ENE towards the Bahamas and out to sea-along 22N as a WAG). I think the modeled timetable for this storm is on the slow side-may move a little quicker. Not believing this thing will be stuck in the western Caribbean for 10 days (more of a wish on that one!). An early NE turn on the S side of Cuba maybe the worst case scenario for intensification. The sweet spot in the upper anticyclone and almost decent moisture should reside here.

The northern side of Cuba would seem to offer a far more hostile enviroment for a small-ish CAT1 with strong westerly flow from 500mb on up and a continuing issue with dry air. Land interaction with Cuba would also limit potential.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
646. pottery
7:08 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
I am not leaving until she does just that...Hi Pott....pssst...dont spoil the fun Brah...

:):)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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