Tropical Storm Paula forming
Data from the Hurricane Hunters, land stations, and satellite imagery reveal that the strong tropical disturbance centered near the coast of Honduras just west of the border with Nicaragua is now Tropical Storm Paula. Paula is the 16th named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. The Hurricane Hunters reported a central pressure of 1001 mb and top surface winds of 45 mph in their 2:11pm EDT center fix. Satellite imagery shows a well-organized system with a modest but increasing amount of intense thunderstorm activity, and some respectable low-level spiral bands. Water vapor satellite loops reveal that Paula has been able to substantially moisten the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean over the past day, and dry air will be less of an impediment to development than it was yesterday. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. Puerto Lempira, Honduras reported sustained winds of 35 mph at 12pm CST this afternoon, with 3.31" of rain from the storm thus far.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Paula.
Forecast for Paula
Proximity to land is hampering Paula's ability to intensify some, and the storm's northwest movement of 10 mph will take the center far enough away from the coast of Honduras this evening to substantially increase the storm's ability to intensify. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay mostly in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday afternoon, then increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, for the remainder of the week. The computer models predict Paula will continue on a northwest motion then turn more north-northwest on Wednesday, which would take the storm close to landfall on the coast of Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Paula may be approaching Category 2 hurricane status, due to the moderate wind shear, SSTs of 29°C, and a sufficiently moist atmosphere. On Wednesday, there is considerable doubt about the future path of Paula. Steering currents in the Western Caribbean will collapse, potentially allowing Paula to wander in the region for many days, as predicted by the GFS and HWRF models. It is also possible that Paula will push far enough inland over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that the storm will dissipate, as predicted by the NOGAPS model. Finally, if Paula grows strong quickly, and pushes far enough north, it could get caught up a strong trough of low pressure predicted to traverse the U.S. this week (and spawn a Nor'easter for New England this weekend.) In this scenario, offered by the GFDL model, Paula would make a sharp turn to the east-northeast, hit western Cuba, bring tropical storm-force finds to the Florida Keys on Thursday, then move into the Bahama Islands by Friday or Saturday. It is too early to say which of these scenarios is the most likely, as the storm is just forming and the models do not have a good handle on it yet. Regardless, northern Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula will receive dangerous flooding rains from Paula today through Wednesday.
The U.S. drought in major hurricanes
On average, the U.S. gets hit by one major Category 3 or stronger hurricane every two years. This year, the team of hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University called for a 76% chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. in their June forecast. However, the odds of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. are rapidly dwindling. Over the past fifty years, the only Category 3 or stronger hurricanes to hit the U.S. after October 1 were Hilda (October 3, 1964), Opal (October 4, 1995), and Wilma (October 24, 2005). Hilda and Opal were already named tropical storms as of October 1, so Wilma was the major hurricane that formed after October 1 to hit the U.S. during this period. Although we still need to keep a wary eye on developments in the Western Caribbean over the next few weeks, the odds are that 2010 will join 1951 as the only year to have five or more major hurricanes in the Atlantic, but no landfalling major hurricane in the U.S. (1958 is also listed as such a year, but a re-analysis effort is showing that Hurricane Helene hit North Carolina as a major hurricane that year.) If 2010 finishes without a major hurricane hitting the U.S., this will mark the first such five-year stretch since 1910 - 1914.
Figure 2. Hurricane Wilma over South Florida as a Category 3 hurricane on October 24, 2005. Wilma was the last major hurricane to hit the U.S.
However, some caveats are required. Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, which both made landfall in the U.S. in 2008 as top-end Category 2 storms with 110 mph winds, would probably have been classified as Category 3 hurricanes had they occurred early in the 20th century. This is because in past, when there were not any reliable wind measurements in the vicinity of a landfalling hurricane (a common occurrence), the storm was classified based on its central pressure. Gustav and Ike had central pressures of 957 and 952 mb, respectively, which would have qualified them as Category 3 storms. Similarly, Hurricane Floyd of 1999 and Hurricane Isabel of 2002 (though not within the last five years) were strong Category 2 hurricanes with 105 mph winds at landfall, but had central pressures of 956 mb. These hurricanes would also have been classified as Category 3 hurricanes in the past. There are many storms from the 1930s, 1940s, and 1950s that will likely change their landfall classification once re-analysis efforts are completed over the next few years. One case is Hurricane Ten of 1949, which is listed as having winds of a low-end Category 4 hurricane (135 mph) just before landfall, which would make it the only October major hurricane to make landfall in Texas. However, the hurricane is only given a Category 2 strength at landfall, based on its central pressure.
Prior to 1960, there were five major hurricanes that hit Florida in October. Most notable of these is Hurricane King, which hit downtown Miami on October 18, 1950, as a Category 3 hurricane.
Record quiet hurricane and typhoon seasons in the Pacific
Over in the Western Pacific, it is currently the quietest typhoon season on record, according to statistics computed by forecaster Paul Stanko at the NWS office on Guam. On average, by this point in the season, there should have been 21 named storms, 13 typhoons, and 3 supertyphoons (storms with 150+ mph winds.) So far in 2010, there have been just 12 named storms, 6 typhoons, and no supertyphoons. The record lows for the Western Pacific (since 1951) are 18 named storms, 9 typhoons, and 0 supertyphoons. We have a good chance of beating or tying all of those records. Over the in the Eastern Pacific, it has also been a near record-quiet season. On average, the Eastern Pacific has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes in a season. So far in 2010, there have been 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The record quietest season since 1966 was the year 1977, when the Eastern Pacific had 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes. Climatology suggests that on average, we can expect just one more named storm in the Eastern Pacific this late in the season, so there is a good chance that the 2010 season is over. La Niña is largely responsible to the quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season, due in part to the cool sea surface temperatures it brought. La Niña also commonly causes less active Western Pacific typhoon seasons, since the warmest waters there shift closer to Asia, reducing the amount of time storms have over water.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning at the latest.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 — Blog Index
Pressure is approaching that of a hurricane, winds not there yet.
Like I said, that dry air slug did a number on the cyclone, it penetrated the center. Most likely you will see eyewall forming open to the NW in the vortex.
WTNT33 KNHC 120554
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010
...PAULA VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 84.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE
TODAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
PAULA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...AND PAULA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER...EASTERN HONDURAS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...AND NORTHERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN HONDURAS...
WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT
Owen Roberts
Link
WTNT33 KNHC 120554
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010
...PAULA VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 84.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE
TODAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
PAULA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...AND PAULA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER...EASTERN HONDURAS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...AND NORTHERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN HONDURAS...
WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
LOL, one thing's for sure, I don't think you should take a Caribbean vacation in October unless you got traveler's insurance or want to be the next Jim Cantore! Seems there is that tendency to have Caribbean October 'canes that are strong from time to time, Wilma 2004, Roxanne 1995, Gilbert 1988, Hattie 1961? Michelle 2001, to name a few.
i believe you may be right. the long range bell curve shows a spike because during this time of year things are in flux over the tropics. it is the time when troughs can finally start dipping down this far south as the summer ends, but it can fluctuate back again within 2-3 days to a semi-conducive environment because we are transitioning seasons. also it is the end of the summer and mother nature necessarily wants to transfer heat in the northern hemisphere to the polar cap. she needs to cool down each year by venting like this or the seas would boil at the equator
in addition the lack of storms (which are like the pressure cooker whistle on your pressure cooker you use to cook) last year set this year up with hotter overall sst's, and since the season was late in kick starting alot of heat had built up. sst's are still quite sufficient for rapid development, particularly where she is right now.
Boston forecasters think so!
"AS MENTIONED ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON THE
IDEA OF AN EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM MOVING FROM THE MID ATLC COAST
TO SOMEWHERE FROM NANTUCKET TO THE BENCHMARK. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND
UKMET SUGGEST AN INTENSE COASTAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRES DOWN INTO
THE 980S! IF VERIFIES NOT BAD FOR MID OCT."
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 05:52Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2010
Storm Name: Paula (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 12th day of the month at 5:35:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°13'N 84°56'W (17.2167N 84.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 216 miles (347 km) to the E (95°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,362m (4,469ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (38°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 132° at 58kts (From the SE at ~ 66.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (37°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 5:32:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the southwest quadrant at 5:37:10Z
Radar Presentation: Good
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYEWALL IN EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 05:52Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2010
Storm Name: Paula (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 12th day of the month at 5:35:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°13'N 84°56'W (17.2167N 84.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 216 miles (347 km) to the E (95°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,362m (4,469ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (38°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 132° at 58kts (From the SE at ~ 66.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (37°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 5:32:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the southwest quadrant at 5:37:10Z
Radar Presentation: Good
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYEWALL IN EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT
Link
Link
Yeah, changed my mind and started to agree with your dry air theory in post 1104, Paula coughed, but she'll be a hurricane once she catches her breath again, LOL.
Surfers - lol None up there, water's too cold!
a) lack of wind shear
b) disappearing dry air to the north of her
c) sufficient sst's
d) temperature variation due to nighttime (more temp. difference between the sst's and the air)
....i expect a large flare up of deep convection not only in the coc but around her coc as well stronger banding expanding out....i think this next waxing cycle will show signs of symmetry, deep banding, expansive breathing and venting,...basically a more commonly accepted image of a healthy hurricane. we may also see the 1st emergence of an eyewall when the waning is done and the waxing cycle begins again....
Yeah, including how Paula fizzles.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 05:58Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
models have been confused for days....24-36 hours out i am disregarding them....the models 6 hrs ago were showing a t.s. all the way to the yucatan. she will probably gain cat 1 strength way before that. the models haven't handled this storm well for days and i have stopped looking that far forward....
I wonder, do other basins besides the Atlantic exhibit this secondary October peak? If its just an Atlantic phenomenon, the above theory in my mind wouldn't hold. The whole thing about the heat transfer from equators to poles, wouldn't that hold in every basin's Octobers and not just in the Atlantic?
Here are the SSTs for 2009 and 2010...huge differences on the order of 3-5 C, with coastal waters much cooler. Not sure there will be much recovery as a series of powerful cold-fronts are poised to blow into the Gulf coast states -- and likely discourage further development of Paula.
i think it happens in india as well, or at least the basic principle of going polar with energy and heat. but the way that the land masses are organized the storms in that part of the world usually really die down because when the polar pull begins the bodies of water are limited in size, so storms don't have enough time to get a head of steam before they make landfall and spin northwards. what i mean is that the new tracks send the storms over very short expanses of water, so they don't have enough time to build like they do in the Caribbean.
"MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SW AND SCNTRL LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 120548Z - 120715Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SE TX AND
SW-SCNTRL LA LATE TONIGHT. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE LINE MOVES ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
A BOWING LINE-SEGMENT ONGOING ACROSS SW LA IS LOCATED ON THE NRN
EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN
THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED IN SCNTRL LA.
THIS SECONDARY CLUSTER HAS OVERTURNED THE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN LA AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY AS THE
BOWING LINE-SEGMENT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS SW LA LATE TONIGHT.
STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WHICH ALONG WITH 35 TO 40 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE LAKE CHARLES WSR-88D VWP SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BUT THE THREAT SHOULD LESSEN WITH TIME
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 10/12/2010
"
With this development, she's fighting off the dry air as expected and should have a mature eyewall just in time for DMAX.
colors can be deceiving. look at the gradient scale below. the sst's have dropped a degree, maybe 2? not much drop off.....red always has a shocking effect that gets peoples attention...lol thats why they make stop signs and lights that color lol and thats why red cars that speed statistically get more speeding tickets lmao
coastal waters will always cool down faster when large troughs dig in like we just had. it only goes to show how deep the heat is built up further out in the gulf. coastal waters are far more shallow, therefore they can't retain as much overall radiated heat from the sun. and why are you using 2009 to 2010 maps to show how the sst's are now cooling down? what you need are july/august 2010 charts along with sept/oct 2010 charts. the charts are misleading if they are from 2 separate years.
October 10, 2009
October 10, 2010
That is also a smaller than average eye to start out with, typical is 20-40 miles.
oh i get it you are showing the difference from this date year to year. ok that makes sense :) sorry about the confusion fsu.
you are correct it does appear the trough last week did knock the overall sst's down a good degree or 2 across most of the gulf.
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
She's going to explode.
if this is true this is confirming my suspicions. when she stops waning and begins her waxing cycle she is going to band up with huge intake and huge exhale, along with a growth in the overall coc. we may see the eyewall and a coc which is more apparent expanding outward with hurricane force winds.
Link
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html
check out the expanse of overall venting she is demonstrating into the GOM in that link. also notice the upper level moisture penetrating deep into the remaining core of the driest air (where the wind shear gave way 12-16 hours ago) in the south central GOM. i suspect we may get a correction of models tomorrow due to a buildup of upper level moisture, which is going to thicken the air, forcing the westerlies either north into the states (path of least resistance) or slowing them down considerably as moisture stacks up in the GOM. the chamber is being reloaded with upper level tropical moisture from 160w-100w/10n-20n. and paula is kicking in tons of moisture now that the shear is pulling north and rolling east towards the remnants of Otto. She can push huge amounts of moisture into the GOM before she even arrives because the shear is not dragging her moisture into the open atlantic (like it was at noon yesterday).
TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions held at ~11.3mph(~18.2km/h)
TropicalDepression18
11Oct 12pmGMT - - 15.2n83.2w - - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - - 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF
TS.Paula
11Oct 06pmGMT - - 15.7n83.7w - - 45knots(~83.3km/h) - - 1001mb -- NHC-ATCF
11Oct 09pmGMT - - 16.0n84.0w - - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - . - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#1
12Oct 12amGMT - - 16.4n84.3w - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - - 998mb -- NHC.Adv.#1A
12Oct 03amGMT - - 16.8n84.6w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#2
12Oct 06amGMT - - 17.2n84.9w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - - 991mb -- NHC.Adv.#2A
Copy &paste 15.2n83.2w, 15.7n83.7w-16.0n84.0w, 16.0n84.0w-16.4n84.3w, 16.4n84.3w-16.8n84.6w, 16.8n84.6w-17.2n84.9w, pnd, cun, mzo, 17.2n84.9w-20.36n87.33w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.
Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~23hours from now to Chacalal,QuintanaRoo,Mexico
^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
A multidecadal cycle in the Pacific of 16-32 years matches up pretty well to the current dead period. The year of 1977 was the year of nothing with the Pacific dead. However, as this year, and 2007, the Indian Ocean was particularly active.
Globally, as I have publicized elsewhere, tropical cyclone activity is at a 33-year low, and at a record low in the Western pacific. Link
It has to pick up -- because it can't get any less active in my estimation.
this may also be a sign of strengthening. stronger northern pull in the mid levels will direct her more northward as her mb pressure drops. i suspect she may start moving just a few more degrees north of her current north northwest track. if she strengthens the steering currents may direct her in a straighter line towards the strait between cuba and yucatan.
that sounded redundant....lol
here is a more accurate loop from nhc that shows all levels of the atmosphere, thus giving a true representation of the water vapor.
Link
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html
i tend to put no credence in any models for this storm past 48 hours. the models have been a mess for days.
Viewing: 1151 - 1201
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 — Blog Index