Strengthening Tomas headed for the Lesser Antilles
Tropical Storm Tomas has exploded into existence in spectacular fashion, becoming the nineteenth named storm of this amazingly active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. I'm reporting to you live from the National Hurricane Center tonight, where forecasters are working hard to stay abreast of Tomas' intensification. Three hurricane specialists are on duty tonight--Dave Roberts, who is handling Tropical Storm Shary, and Robbie Berg and Dan Brown, who are focusing on Tomas. The Hurricane Hunters have just left Tomas, as of 8pm EDT, and they found a significant increase in winds. Winds at their 1500 foot flight level were 70 mph, and surface winds as measured by the SFMR instrument were near 60 mph. This supports an increase in Tomas' winds to 60 mph in tonight's 8pm EDT public advisory. Since this is such a large increase in intensity from what was forecast--Tomas was not supposed to have 60 mph winds for another 24 hours--this necessitates issuance of a special advisory package. A full set of forecast maps, a marine advisory, wind probability forecast, and a discussion just went out to the world. While all this was occurring, several phone calls to Barbados, St. Lucia, and Martinique were made, alerting the islands to the fact that a Hurricane Warning may be required with the 11pm advisory tonight. NHC has both French speaking and Spanish speaking meteorologists on staff that can coordinate with the islands that don't have English as their main language. I listened in on a 5-minute conversation in French between the weather service in Martinique and NHC meteorologist Mike Tichacek, as they discussed when Martinique may want to issue a Hurricane Warning.
Figure 1. Warren VonWerne (right) of CARCAH presents the latest data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters to hurricane specialist Robbie Berg.
Intensity forecast for Tomas
The forecasters at NHC are puzzling over the latest intensity forecasts for Tomas. The latest intensity forecast from the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS models are not that impressive, and they keep Tomas as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane for the next five days. The wind shear forecast from SHIPS is particularly odd--the latest 18Z forecast predicts high wind shear of 20+ knots beginning Sunday morning, and the previous SHIPS forecast held wind shear below 15 knots for the next five days. The latest runs by the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models all show a very favorable environment for intensification over the next five days over the Caribbean, with Tomas positioning itself beneath an upper level high in a light wind shear environment. The best bet is that Tomas will intensify into a major hurricane over the Central Caribbean by early next week.
Figure 2. NHC meteorologist Mike Tichacek discusses the latest intensity forecast for Tomas with the Martinique weather service (in French.) In the background, hurricane specialist Dave Roberts works on advisories for Tropical Storm Shary.
Track forecast for Tomas
After Tomas reaches the central Caribbean 4 - 6 days from now, there are two possible track scenarios depicted by the models--a continued westerly motion towards Nicaragua, or a sharp turn to the north, with a track over Hispaniola or Puerto Rico. Steering currents will be weak, and we'll just have to wait and see how the steering currents evolve.
Tomas' formation location unprecedented this late in the season
Tomas' formation ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s.
The formation of a tropical storm so far south and east this late in the season is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (60°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 60°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. There have been only two other tropical storms that formed after October 15 south of 12°N and east of 60°W: Hurricane Jose, which was a tropical storm in that region on October 18, 1999, and Tropical Storm Nicolas, on October 16, 2003. Tomas most reminds me of Hurricane Joan of 1988, which was a tropical storm on October 14 near Tomas' current location, and later strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane that hit Nicaragua.
Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we now have two simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic Ocean on October 29. There have been only four hurricane seasons since 1851 that have had two simultaneous named storms later in the year. The record was set way back in 1887, when Hurricane Eighteen and Tropical Storm Nineteen were both active on December 8. There were three years that had simultaneous November named storms: 1932, 1961, and 2001.
Next update
I'll have more late Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Just had the wrong name attached to it tho....I had this one named Shary....LOL
Right here, in the panel on the left, this page.
I MEANT THE PANEL ON THE RIGHT.
sorry
GFS models
Nailed!
On the right hand side of this page is a section entitled: Recommended Links. Click on "Flying into Hurricane Hugo". You'll be ready to go. And a warm welcome to you!
Storm, hurricane warnins out already, so you need not wait till 5.00!
Boy, you can't say anything on this blog without getting ripped. LOL How you doing PSL?
Pottery i don't like the looks to this my friend. Someone is gonna get a really bad storm.
I have a Containerload of a Special Shower curtains available, for Florida residents only.
Interested?
Hopefully you guys don't lose power.
Well, there appears to be no way out, now.
All doors are slammed shut.......
Keep in touch if you can.
INITIAL 30/0300Z 12.2N 58.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 13.0N 60.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 13.7N 62.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 14.2N 65.0W 85 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 14.5N 67.1W 90 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 15.0N 71.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 15.5N 74.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 16.0N 76.0W 100 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN
That they are. And dynamic, don't forget dynamic. Seriously, I think it could be a serious situation for a lot of people. You know I NEVER make forecast, but at this point, I would not rule out a CAT 4, the way this is unfolding. "What a revoltin' development this is!"
I don't know which one... but I am sure tired of them running over my house to get there.
I said it in July, and I will say it again. This season is headed for Greek letters. Look at the next wave heading off of Africa, if you have any doubt. It's all phenomenal, and I continue to give my best wishes to the people of Haiti, who don't need any more grief.
QUADRANTS...AND THE CYCLONE APPEARS AS THOUGH IT IS GOING THROUGH A
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION."
Oh Yeah!
Genuine with a Capital i to boot.
Little snappers and angels all over.
Only slightly used....
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL LOW 01U
9:00 AM WST October 30 2010
======================================
At 8:00 am WST, Tropical Low (1002 hPa) located at 7.5S 96.0E or 530 km north of Cocos Island and moving west at 5 knots has sustained winds 30 knots of with gusts of 45 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: D2.5/2.5D1.5/1.5/24HRS
The low is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone today or early on Sunday. Although it is currently moving westwards, it is expected to take a southwards turn, and is likely to pass close to Cocos Island on Tuesday. Conditions are favorable for intensification and Cocos Island is at risk of impact from a Severe Tropical Cyclone.
Gales are not expected on the islands during the weekend, but may develop by sunrise on Monday as the system moves closer and intensifies.
Tropical Cyclone Watches
========================
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 7.9S 94.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 8.2S 94.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 9.3S 95.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 11.2S 95.9E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
Additional Information
=========================
The system has significantly improved organisation over the last 24 hours, despite continuing moderate shear. High SSTs are likely assisting the low to overcome the shear, and low to mid level curvature of the cloud lines has improved markedly in microwave imagery together with a consolidation of the central overcast. At 00Z I have a position near 7.5S 96.0E. The SSMI/S image at 2231Z was particularly useful but this position also appears to place the LLCC in a position relative to the CDO that is generally consistent with amount of shear indicated in CIMSS satellite wind analyses, and with the 0030 MTSAT VIS image that has become available since I analysed that position.
Using a shear pattern gives a DT of around T3.0 but the MET is at 2.5 based on a D+ 24 hour trend and yesterdays assignment of T1.0 at 00Z. The rules will limit the FT to 2.5 and this is the assigned CI. The 1530Z ASCAT pass indicated 30 knot winds in the SW quadrant [the only sector it sampled but also the sector with the greatest convection], and the intensity is analysed as being 30 knots at 00Z consistent with the Dvorak analysis. Given the rate of development over the last 24 hours the system is likely to reach cyclone intensity later today.
LMBO! Doing good, my friend. And you?
Will serve him right too.
Its ok as long as the temp stays around 10C. The ski slopes are getting hammered already.
ewwwwww
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL ALL
SUPPORT A RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND SHOW TOMAS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
What can one say about this post. Sheesh
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