Tomas remains weak; St. Lucia hard-hit by the storm
Hurricane Tomas dealt a punishing blow to the Caribbean island of St. Lucia on Saturday, with the neighboring islands of St. Vincent and Barbados also suffering heavy damage. St. Lucia received the full brunt of the northern eyewall of Tomas as it intensified, and the St. Lucia weather service reported that sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph affected the island. A state of emergency has been declared, and heavy flooding washed out many bridges and roads. Damage to structures is considerable, with many roofs gone, and damage reported to hospitals, schools, and businesses. The Minister of Communications for the island said yesterday that he had done an aerial assessment of the damage, and it was "worse that we could think of." The Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility estimated that they will pay out $8.5 million for Barbados, $3.2 million for Saint Lucia, and $1.1 million for St Vincent and the Grenadines.
Figure 1. Torrential rains from Tomas triggered massive flooding on St. Lucia that destroyed several bridges and severely damaged roads. Image credit: Caribbean Hurricane Network.
Tomas remains weak
Satellite loops of Tomas show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear, with a low-level swirl of clouds and the heavy thunderstorm activity all pushed to the east side of the circulation by strong upper-level winds out of the southwest. A few flare-ups of thunderstorms have occurred near the center of Tomas this morning, a sign that the storm is not going to die anytime soon. Wind shear is a high 20 knots due to strong upper level southwest winds, and these winds are driving dry air at mid-levels of the atmosphere into Tomas' west side, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Tomas.
Track forecast for Tomas
The ridge of high pressure pushing Tomas to the west-northwest will weaken by Tuesday, as a trough of low pressure approaches the eastern U.S. and breaks down the ridge. This will result in Tomas slowing from its current 14 mph forward speed to 5 mph by Tuesday afternoon. By Thursday, the trough to Tomas' north should be able to pull the storm to the north or north-northeast. The exact timing and location of this turn is still uncertain, but the computer models have come into better agreement that Haiti or Jamaica are the most likely targets of Tomas. NHC is giving Port-au-Prince, Haiti, a 40% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 5% chance of hurricane force winds. These odds are slightly lower for Kingston, Jamaica--29% and 4%, respectively.
However, the latest 2am EDT (06Z) run of the NOGAPS model calls into question whether or not the trough will be strong enough to pull Tomas northward into Haiti. The NOGAPS is keeping Tomas trapped in the Caribbean for the next seven days. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models are also showing that the trough will not be strong enough to pull Tomas fully out to sea, and these models stall the storm just north of Haiti. So, the long-term fate of Tomas is now looking murkier, and the storm may still be in the Caribbean a week from now.
Intensity forecast for Tomas
Wind shear is forecast to remain in the high range today, near 20 knots, then decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Tuesday through Wednesday. The relaxation of shear should allow Tomas to re-organize Tuesday and Wednesday, though it is unlikely the storm could rebuild its inner core and form and eyewall until Thursday at the earliest. Hampering this process will be the presence of a considerable amount of dry air to Tomas' west. The upper-level winds out of the southwest creating the shear over Tomas will drive this dry air into the core of the storm, slowing intensification. The waters are very warm in the Caribbean and these waters extend to great depth, so a period of rapid intensification just before landfall in Jamaica or Haiti is possible, particularly if the shear drops to the low range, as predicted by the latest SHIPS model forecast. The current south of due west motion of Tomas is putting the storm farther south in the Caribbean than originally expected, which will give the storm more time over water and more time to intensify. The intensity Tomas might have at landfall is thus highly uncertain, and a strength anywhere between a tropical storm and Category 3 hurricane would not be surprising. The HWRF model predicts Tomas will be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds on Friday at landfall, while the GFDL foresees Tomas will be a strengthening Category 3 hurricane as it bears down on Haiti Saturday morning. The HWRF model has been under-forecasting intensity this season, and I predict Tomas will be a strengthening Category 1 hurricane on Friday as it makes landfall in Jamaica or Haiti.
Figure 3. Plot of all Category 1 and stronger hurricanes to pass within 50 miles of St. Lucia since reliable record keeping began in 1851. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
St. Lucia's hurricane history
Tomas is the strongest hurricane to affect St. Lucia since Category 1 Hurricane Dean of 2007 brought 90 mph winds to the island. Dean killed one person and did $6.4 million in damage--0.5% of the nation's GDP. The island's strongest hurricane since accurate records began in 1851 was Hurricane Allen of 1980, which struck as a Category 3 hurricane with 130 mph winds. Allen killed 18 people on St.Lucia, and caused catastrophic damage of $235 million dollars ($613 million 2010 dollars.) This was 177% of the nation's GDP that year. The deadliest hurricane in St. Lucia history was the Category 5 Great Hurricane of 1780, which killed approximately 700 people. The Great Hurricane of 1780 was the Atlantic's deadliest hurricane of all-time, with 22,000 fatalities, mostly in the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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News out of St. Vincent is saying that the Banana crop there is almost totally destroyed due to winds from Tomas.
For information, a Banana plant takes 18 months to produce a bunch of Bananas, then the tree is removed and new 'sucker' is planted.
West Indian Bananas have taken serious knocks over the past few years, especially after a Court Action by Chiquita Banana Co.,(an US Co., with big Mexican investment in Banana) claiming that the preferential treatment given to West Indian Bananas into Europe was unfair. Chiquita won the case.
WI Bananas accounted for some 3% of European Banana sales, before the action eliminated that small percentage.
Tomas has also damaged infrastructure on the Island, including some damage to Tourism stock. (hotels and the like)
I believe that St. Lucia is in a similiar if not worse position....
some 350 homes are completely destroyed there.
Queen Beatrix Airport, Aruba (Airport)
Updated: 39 min 5 sec ago
85 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 76%
Dew Point: 78 °F
Wind: 10 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.79 in (Falling)
Visibility: 3.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 1476 ft
Mostly Cloudy 7874 ft
Mostly Cloudy 34449 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 59 ft
I will pass that onto SWMBO, that will delete Chiquita from the grocery list.
Not sure if this is exactly what you want, but it works pretty well for me:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al21/loop_5W.shtml
Well done!
Demand Caribbean Bananas.
I left a post in your blog, that needs your Urgent Attention....
(about 20 mins ago)
Perfect! Thank you!
I have been looking at that one....
Dont the Forces of Nature know, that the Atlantic/Cape Verde season is OVER??
Who is in charge here?
I remember Omar stalled in that area .. making a loop towards the SE, then E, then NE....
You put that on IceCream, or what....?
heheheheh
Which one.. you left two... one good one... and one that might got you in a tad of trouble :)
Personally? I don't like the stuff. Reminded our German friend of....something, I can't remember. That's some weird stuff, man.
Not much rain....
7 mm on Saturday night actually. (about 1/2")
Tobago got a lot more, and clean-up continues today with 2 schools still flooded and unable to open today.
It's a trough of low pressure and it's looking interesting.
Tropical Cyclone Advice #19
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK (01U)
3:00 AM WST November 2 2010
======================================
At 2:00 am WST (12:30am Cocos local time) Tropical Cyclone Anggrek, Category 2 (986 hPa) located at 11.2S 98.2E or about 185 kms northeast of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 3 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS
Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is slowly intensifying as it moves southwards closer to the Cocos Islands. Squalls on the islands will gradually get stronger with periods of gale force winds likely to develop during Tuesday.
With the cyclone expected to curve around towards the west on Tuesday it is likely to be close to Cocos for an extended period. If the cyclone passes close by VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts will occur and tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and flooding of low lying areas
Tropical Cyclone Warnings
=========================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for people on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 12.1S 98.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 12.8S 97.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 13.9S 95.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 14.9S 92.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
Additional Information
=======================
The system was located using microwave and IR imagery but remains difficult to pinpoint with any degree of certainty. Overnight convection has increased and the centre has moved under the cold overcast however it remains under moderate shear.
Dvorak intensity estimates continues to be problematic, and current intensity of 3.5 is due to pattern adjusted MET with the final wind intensity estimate remaining at 50 knots. Recent ASCAT pass shows only a weak system.
Conditions are forecast to become more favourable over the next 12-24 hours with
shear forecast to diminish further and an outflow channel likely to become better established to the south. Based on the expected conditions, and in general agreement with the trend in NWP and STIPS, the system is forecast to reach hurricane intensity during Tuesday. The forecast track has a path to the east and south of the Cocos Islands but there remains a high risk of impact from hurricane force winds during Tuesday.
As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off to the southwest on Wednesday. STIPS is consistent with this but some NWP guidance do not weaken the system until later.
Tomas made a valiant come back attempt over the past few hours but the huge outflow boundary on the NW side of the system is a clear indication that dry air is still infiltrating the circulation leading to the collapse of significant thunderstorm complexes. For now Tomas is not likely to get much better organized until there is a further drop off in shear that is forcing the dry air into the storm.
You can see the outflow boundary in this image.
You mean, it isnt an OrcAss?
looks exactly like one, to me.
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