Tomas remains weak; St. Lucia hard-hit by the storm
Hurricane Tomas dealt a punishing blow to the Caribbean island of St. Lucia on Saturday, with the neighboring islands of St. Vincent and Barbados also suffering heavy damage. St. Lucia received the full brunt of the northern eyewall of Tomas as it intensified, and the St. Lucia weather service reported that sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph affected the island. A state of emergency has been declared, and heavy flooding washed out many bridges and roads. Damage to structures is considerable, with many roofs gone, and damage reported to hospitals, schools, and businesses. The Minister of Communications for the island said yesterday that he had done an aerial assessment of the damage, and it was "worse that we could think of." The Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility estimated that they will pay out $8.5 million for Barbados, $3.2 million for Saint Lucia, and $1.1 million for St Vincent and the Grenadines.
Figure 1. Torrential rains from Tomas triggered massive flooding on St. Lucia that destroyed several bridges and severely damaged roads. Image credit: Caribbean Hurricane Network.
Tomas remains weak
Satellite loops of Tomas show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear, with a low-level swirl of clouds and the heavy thunderstorm activity all pushed to the east side of the circulation by strong upper-level winds out of the southwest. A few flare-ups of thunderstorms have occurred near the center of Tomas this morning, a sign that the storm is not going to die anytime soon. Wind shear is a high 20 knots due to strong upper level southwest winds, and these winds are driving dry air at mid-levels of the atmosphere into Tomas' west side, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Tomas.
Track forecast for Tomas
The ridge of high pressure pushing Tomas to the west-northwest will weaken by Tuesday, as a trough of low pressure approaches the eastern U.S. and breaks down the ridge. This will result in Tomas slowing from its current 14 mph forward speed to 5 mph by Tuesday afternoon. By Thursday, the trough to Tomas' north should be able to pull the storm to the north or north-northeast. The exact timing and location of this turn is still uncertain, but the computer models have come into better agreement that Haiti or Jamaica are the most likely targets of Tomas. NHC is giving Port-au-Prince, Haiti, a 40% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 5% chance of hurricane force winds. These odds are slightly lower for Kingston, Jamaica--29% and 4%, respectively.
However, the latest 2am EDT (06Z) run of the NOGAPS model calls into question whether or not the trough will be strong enough to pull Tomas northward into Haiti. The NOGAPS is keeping Tomas trapped in the Caribbean for the next seven days. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models are also showing that the trough will not be strong enough to pull Tomas fully out to sea, and these models stall the storm just north of Haiti. So, the long-term fate of Tomas is now looking murkier, and the storm may still be in the Caribbean a week from now.
Intensity forecast for Tomas
Wind shear is forecast to remain in the high range today, near 20 knots, then decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Tuesday through Wednesday. The relaxation of shear should allow Tomas to re-organize Tuesday and Wednesday, though it is unlikely the storm could rebuild its inner core and form and eyewall until Thursday at the earliest. Hampering this process will be the presence of a considerable amount of dry air to Tomas' west. The upper-level winds out of the southwest creating the shear over Tomas will drive this dry air into the core of the storm, slowing intensification. The waters are very warm in the Caribbean and these waters extend to great depth, so a period of rapid intensification just before landfall in Jamaica or Haiti is possible, particularly if the shear drops to the low range, as predicted by the latest SHIPS model forecast. The current south of due west motion of Tomas is putting the storm farther south in the Caribbean than originally expected, which will give the storm more time over water and more time to intensify. The intensity Tomas might have at landfall is thus highly uncertain, and a strength anywhere between a tropical storm and Category 3 hurricane would not be surprising. The HWRF model predicts Tomas will be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds on Friday at landfall, while the GFDL foresees Tomas will be a strengthening Category 3 hurricane as it bears down on Haiti Saturday morning. The HWRF model has been under-forecasting intensity this season, and I predict Tomas will be a strengthening Category 1 hurricane on Friday as it makes landfall in Jamaica or Haiti.
Figure 3. Plot of all Category 1 and stronger hurricanes to pass within 50 miles of St. Lucia since reliable record keeping began in 1851. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
St. Lucia's hurricane history
Tomas is the strongest hurricane to affect St. Lucia since Category 1 Hurricane Dean of 2007 brought 90 mph winds to the island. Dean killed one person and did $6.4 million in damage--0.5% of the nation's GDP. The island's strongest hurricane since accurate records began in 1851 was Hurricane Allen of 1980, which struck as a Category 3 hurricane with 130 mph winds. Allen killed 18 people on St.Lucia, and caused catastrophic damage of $235 million dollars ($613 million 2010 dollars.) This was 177% of the nation's GDP that year. The deadliest hurricane in St. Lucia history was the Category 5 Great Hurricane of 1780, which killed approximately 700 people. The Great Hurricane of 1780 was the Atlantic's deadliest hurricane of all-time, with 22,000 fatalities, mostly in the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It is pretty tasteless, but probably nothing meant by it, and sort of inevitable with midterm elections in the US tomorrow.
Back to Tomas, can't quite figure out what's going on with the convection to the south of the center, coming off the northern coast of South America. Seems to be pulling energy away from the center. Anyone with any insight?(hurricane newbie)
Storm-centered Water Vapor:
Link
from it's previous heading of (0.3degrees west of) WestSouthWest
TS.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~11.3mph(~~18.2km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~12mph(~19.3km/h)
HurricaneTomas
31Oct 09pmGMT - 14.4n64.9w - 75mph_(~120.7km/h) - - 994mb - NHC.Adv.#11
TS.Tomas
1Nov. 12amGMT - 14.4n65.6w - 55knots.(~101.9km/h) - - 997mb - ATCF
1Nov. 03amGMT - 14.2n66.5w - 65mph_(~104.6km/h) - - 997mb - NHC.Adv.#12
1Nov. 06amGMT - 13.9n67.1w - 45knots . (~84.3km/h) - 1003mb - ATCF
1Nov. 09amGMT - 13.8n67.7w - 50mph__(~80.5km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#13
1Nov. 12pmGMT - 13.6n68.2w - 40knots . (~74.1km/h) - 1005mb - ATCF
1Nov. 03pmGMT - 13.6n68.7w - 45mph__(~72.4km/h) - 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#14
1Nov. 06pmGMT - 13.4n69.2w - 40knots . (~74.1km/h) - 1005mb - ATCF
1Nov. 09pmGMT - 13.4n69.7w - 45mph__(~72.4km/h) - 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#15
Copy&paste 14.4n64.9w, 14.4n65.6w, 14.2n66.5w, 13.9n67.1w, 13.8n67.7w-13.6n68.2w, 13.6n68.2w-13.6n68.7w, 13.6n68.7w-13.4n69.2w, 13.4n69.2w-13.4n69.7w, cya, aua into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 12^hours.
That would be horrible. I'm thinking more Cat2, but what's the difference? It'll be catastrophic either intensity.
C B D-3
That seems to be an eastern outlier.
Jeff- I will not dispute that the Haitian government is corrupt and not appropriating the money as well as they could/should. (Are our taxpayer dollars spent properly? - that's another story) But I know many people and organizations that have been very influential to their aid. Portlight is one I know I can mention here. (Ask Patrap if you have any questions about them)
The whole point is that a lot of money is reserved to repair infastructure (ie. roads, hospitals, waste management, etc.) It is just taking a long time because they do not have the means and equipment to handle such a large scale operation.
In essence, please DO NOT discourage anyone from donating anything to them, because they need it now and will possibly need a lot more in the near future.
I pray for them.
Thanks.
BULLETIN No: 5 / Tropical Storm Tomas
TOMAS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
Tropical Storm Tomas continues to move westward across the south-central Caribbean Sea but could re-strengthen near Jamaica later this week.
At 4:00 p.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Tomas was located near Latitude 13.4 degrees North, Longitude 69.7 degrees West; about 900 km (560 miles) east-southeast of Morant Point, Jamaica or 640 km (400 miles) south-southeast of Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
Tomas is moving towards the west near 19 km/h (12 mph) and this general westward motion, with a decrease in forward speed, is expected during the next day or two.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 km/h (45 mph), with higher gusts. Little change is expected during the next 24 hours; however, some strengthening is forecast on Wednesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 km (140 miles) from the centre.
Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Storm Tomas has become poorly organized as it battles hostile atmospheric conditions. These are expected to become more conducive to the storm’s development by Wednesday, allowing it to re-strengthen. The forecast is for Tomas to turn and move towards and across Haiti on Thursday and Friday, passing some distance to the east of Jamaica.
Jamaica should, however, be impacted by the outer bands of a stronger Tomas on Thursday and Friday as it passes some distance east of the island. Periods of heavy rainfall and strong, gusty winds could be experienced, mainly over eastern parishes and eastern waters. Above-normal wave heights should also be expected over inshore and offshore areas of the northern and southeastern coasts.
Fishers on the cays and banks are advised to evacuate immediately and start returning to the mainland. Other small craft operators in our coastal waters are advised to return to port and small craft operators who are in port are advised not to venture out.
The Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of this system, and all interests should pay special attention to further Releases.
The next Bulletin on Tropical Storm Tomas will be issued at 8:00 p.m. today.
egt
thanks!!
Actually not so much.
Link
I've friends working there and it's sad work.
(btw - just picked out one news link randomly - this is widely reported)
Agreed - they don't need this storm.
+googelplex+1
Shear is only marginal for development, but it is expected to weaken to favorable by tomorrow afternoon. This should allow for steady to rapid intensification to a hurricane by Wednesday or Thursday in my opinion.
I have Tomas becoming a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane right before landfall, if it makes landfall.
Its still entirely possible that Tomas will become a Major hurricane...I'd put the odds somewhere between 30% and 50%.
Yes
Is it going to stay gone?
So that's your M.O.? Take a few cheap shots from the sidelines, then retreat to the shadows where you can cower in safety, huh? Fair enough; probably a good tactic to avoid your getting hurt, because--and don't be offended by this--I don't think it'd be a very fair fight. ;-)
Updated: 1 hr 0 min 39 sec ago
84 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 74%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the SSE
Pressure: 29.77 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 92 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Few 1900 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 220 ft
I guess it's possible. Plowing into SA was in the cone at one time. But, even though I hope it happens, I somehow doubt that it will. The remnant energy will come back in the Caribbean.
Why doesn't that surprise me... sigh... is he ever going to go away?
I doubt that too... :)
Not before he gets stronger and impacts something.
It has to get worse before it gets better.
40 at 11 pm i think but hard to say
And prepare... Gov't seems to be taking it seriously. All kinds of meetings today.
And we still have water rising over in the western part of the island from Nicole. :-(
She took the exam and passed for Nursing School which starts in January. She is saying she is homesick now so I don't know what she is going to do. I know you don't need any more rain down there. We are flat with no rivers etc. so it's not as bad for us.
Just trying to cast a little cheer, that's all... ;-)
Just had to throw in that little dig didn't you :)
If you're so smart, how many days until Christmas? Fast, now!!!!
You would think by the commercials on TV already.. that it was sometime next week.
I am beginning to think it may not last the night. Lot's of shear out there.
No?
AOI
TSPN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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