Caribbean disturbance 93L no threat; remembering the Edmund Fitzgerald storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on November 10, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 93L) near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands is drifting northwards. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 93L is rather limited, due in part to some surrounding dry air. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots and SSTs are very warm, 29°C, but 93L is headed into a region of very high wind shear, and does not have time to develop. None of the reliable global forecast models for predicting tropical cyclone formation (GFS, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and UKMET) are developing 93L into a tropical depression over the coming week, and NHC is giving 93L a 10% chance of developing by Friday.

The GFS and NOGAPS models predict a strong tropical disturbance will form in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Colombia 6 - 7 days from now, and move west-northwest towards Nicaragua.


Figure 1. Rainfall totals for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands from Invest 93L.

35th anniversary of the "Edmund Fitzgerald" storm
Thirty five years ago today, on November 10, 1975, one of the strongest storms in Great Lakes history sank the ore carrier Edmund Fitzgerald on Lake Superior, with the loss of all 29 men aboard. Our Weather Extremes blogger Christopher C. Burt has a look back at this date in weather history, which also features four other remarkable record-setting storms: the 1911 Great Cold Front, the 1913 "White Hurricane", the 1940 Armistice Day Blizzard, and the 1998 Super Cyclone.


Figure 2. The S.S. Edmund Fitzgerald in calmer waters. Photo from NOAA.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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430. hcubed
8:20 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
383. JFLORIDA 1:26 AM CST on November 11, 2010

"377 I cant believe how many sites "source" Anthony Watts. Do you even know the particular climate study where that data was used and what statistical methods were used to eliminate error?"

So because it came from Watt's site, that AUTOMATICALLY makes it wrong?

Did you read the post?

In case you didn't, a recap:

"...The error is compounded in the sense that it propagates via V2 into the GISS database, and other users of GHCN V2..."

You know, GISS. The most accurate surface temperature data base because they ESTIMATE (extrapolate) the Arctic contribution from stations 6oo miles away.

And remember, we're only about .6 degrees above "normal" (according to GISS).

So what studies are effected? Any study that uses GISS as their database.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
429. hydrus
1:54 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:


As you are again. OnlY left wing LIBERALS do....JUST THE TRUTH......POOOF!
The GEM still has our possible Virginie out there..Link The NAM has it as well...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
428. IKE
1:47 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
427. Jeff9641
1:46 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is a weather blog, not a conspiracy blog. Take your stupid rants and theories somewhere else.


The problem is bombs being sent over in envolopes is fact and not a conspiracy. The fact that the Government has leaked that much means a lot.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
426. TomasTomas
1:45 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


Alright JFV go somewhere else with your I love Tomas.


When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.

Blog title: Caribbean disturbance 93L no threat; remembering the Edmund Fitzgerald storm

Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the ! button and ignored.

Member Since: October 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
425. Bordonaro
1:44 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Going to be a big storm for the USA


And we can blame this on Levi!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
424. Jeff9641
1:44 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Going to be a big storm for the USA



Looks like the seed is in place off South America for Virginie to form in a few days. Looks like the GFS maybe onto something.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
423. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:43 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Ugh....I can't learn how to quote people automatically.

Daren you Neapolitan :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
422. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:42 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Going to be a big storm for the USA

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
421. Jeff9641
1:42 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting TomasTomas:


This is a weather blog, not a conspiracy blog. Take your stupid rants and theories somewhere else.


Alright JFV go somewhere else with your I love Tomas.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
419. Bordonaro
1:41 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Let me click my heels three times and say...."Their is no place like home, no place like home, no place like home"....

This is not the McLaughlin Group...This is a weather blog....

Oh, look at the new lil' area of convection that moved off of Venezuela.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
418. Jeff9641
1:40 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Calm down, Jeff


I'm pissed today! I was shocked to hear this last night after work.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
417. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:39 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


We got lucky this time man! That is some serious crape going on and if we don't put a stop to this now then one of these plots will go through and it's just a matter of time. We also don't know how many other bombs are being sent over to the US for an attack either.


Calm down, Jeff
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
416. Vincent4989
1:38 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting barbamz:
And another portrait of this stormy lady with greetings from Germany. In a hurry, Barbara


Is that a windstorm?
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
415. Bordonaro
1:37 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting barbamz:
"Carmen" approaching us ...



Source: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?T103151125

Looks like Carmen is stopping first in the UK to have her afternoon "cuppa tea" :O) before she slams into Western Europe.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
414. Jeff9641
1:37 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:

Obama's current trip abroad was centered around the G-20 summit, which was planned many, many months ago, long before Al Qaeda's latest--and, again, foiled--attempt to take over the world by sending a letter bomb.


We got lucky this time man! That is some serious crap going on and if we don't put a stop to this now then one of these plots will go through and it's just a matter of time. We also don't know how many other bombs are being sent over to the US for an attack either.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
413. Neapolitan
1:33 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:
Bomb was set to explode over NYC but the bomb foiled while on a UPS Cargo plane. Another bomb was found in Dubia as well on a plane heading to the US. Very serious stuff happening right now and apparenting OBAMA got wind of this and took his family out of the US for awhile. These bombs are Yemen based and are being targeted for the NE cities. Could be the reason for a missil launch off California.

Obama's current trip abroad was centered around the G-20 summit, which was planned many, many months ago, long before Al Qaeda's latest--and, again, foiled--attempt to take over the world by sending a letter bomb.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
412. HurricaneDean07
1:31 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


From being in the army for many years and a military background that was not a plane. I can assure you of that and remember the government will not leak to much information out right now. That was a missile I promise you that.
now that im seeing it again, i can agree it could be either one. FOX Seems to have bought it. lol
Anyway im going to get out for a while. Be back later.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
411. Jeff9641
1:29 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:


As you are again. OnlY left wing LIBERALS do....JUST THE TRUTH......POOOF!


Hey TampaSpin, it's funny how Obama finds out about all of this and leaves the country huh!
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
410. Jeff9641
1:28 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
so apparently obama knew about this along time before we did.
The California Missile thing is just a plane, reported by FOX.


From being in the army for many years and a military background that was not a plane. I can assure you of that and remember the government will not leak to much information out right now. That was a missile I promise you that.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
409. Neapolitan
1:27 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
From the first moment I saw it, I knew it was a jet contrail. No missile, no UFO, no comet, no meteor. Nope, nothing more exotic than a perfectly normal, everyday, garden-variety, ho-hum jet contrail. I've seen them a million times while living in southern California and south Florida, both places with a large volume a high-altitude flyovers. Here's a webpage created before this week's "event" that very clearly demonstrates the absolute non-mystery of the whole thing.

Yes, the military could have been "so quick" to dismiss the thing as an ordinary jet contrail because they wanted to cover up a conspiracy of some sort--or they could have been "so quick" to dismiss the thing as an ordinary jet contrail because it was, you know, an ordinary jet contrail.

As I've said about other things here--GW, hurricane forecasting, etc.--scientific fact always triumphs. Always.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
408. TampaSpin
1:27 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:


TampaSpin...Now you are REALLY showing your butt...EVERYONE makes fun of Fox news, and he did put a j/k after his statement.


As you are again. OnlY left wing LIBERALS do....JUST THE TRUTH......POOOF!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
407. HurricaneDean07
1:25 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yeah, Obama and his family are apparently gone as Yemen appears to behind this.

Al Qaeda in Yemen behind 'credible terrorist threat' against U.S., Obama says

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/10/29/hazmat-incident-at-philadelphia-airport/
so apparently obama knew about this along time before we did.
The California Missile thing is just a plane, reported by FOX.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
406. Jeff9641
1:21 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
This such a compact bombing plan. They must've planned this for months. THIS IS SO CRAZY! on veteran's day, i find this so ridiculously serious. i can't believe my eyes that this is all happening.


Yeah, Obama and his family are apparently gone as Yemen appears to behind this.

Al Qaeda in Yemen behind 'credible terrorist threat' against U.S., Obama says

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/10/29/hazmat-incident-at-philadelphia-airport/
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
405. HurricaneDean07
1:16 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:
Very Dangerous situation as bombs are being sent on planes to the US from Europe and the Middle East. Could be the very reason why a missile was launched off California.
This such a compact bombing plan. They must've planned this for months. THIS IS SO CRAZY! on veteran's day, i find this so ridiculously serious. i can't believe my eyes that this is all happening.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
404. barbamz
1:15 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
And another portrait of this stormy lady with greetings from Germany. In a hurry, Barbara

Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 58 Comments: 6228
402. barbamz
1:13 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
"Carmen" approaching us ...



Source: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?T103151125
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 58 Comments: 6228
401. Jeff9641
1:13 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Very Dangerous situation as bombs are being sent on planes to the US from Europe and the Middle East. Could be the very reason why a missile was launched off California.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
400. Jeff9641
1:10 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Strieber made the following observations:

•Based on the contrails it either had to be an airplane or an extremely large missile. However, contrails can do strange things and the video is difficult to see. The size of the contrail was comparable to the contrail created by a trident missile.

•The fact that officials announced so quickly that it wasn't a national security threat suggests that someone somewhere knows what it was and they're not yet willing to say.

•If it was intentionally or accidentally launched by another country, the navy would be crawling all over the area right now but there is no one investigating anything out there.

•It could have been an accidental launch by a Soviet or Russian missile boat because they're notorious for these types of mistakes. However, they generally like to keep their subs beneath the Arctic ice cap so they can remain undetected. They rarely come in this close.
Both Strieber and Smith said they had heard of similar incidents occurring in the Gulf area and in Newfoundland in June of this year and a caller to the show said he had witnessed the same type of event over Catalina just last week.

Smith stated that, while there were no reports of ships in the area that would be large enough to launch such a huge missile, it is possible that it was launched from a standard ship. He says that the Iran has been testing launching SCUD missiles from cargo ships.

Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
399. Jeff9641
1:05 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
By Duncan Gardham, Security Correspondent 8:00PM GMT 10 Nov 2010

The device, hidden in a desktop printer, used a disassembled mobile phone as a timer which was set for 10.30am.

“If the device had not been removed from the aircraft the activation could have occurred over the eastern seaboard of the US,” the Metropolitan Police said in a statement.

It was intercepted at East Midlands airport after an intelligence tip off and removed from the UPS cargo plane.

Intelligence agencies believe that al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsular was targeting passenger planes with hundreds of people on board, because the bomb was carried on a scheduled flight on the first leg from Yemen.

Ensuring that it exploded over land would cause more casualties on the ground and US intelligence officers believe that an earlier parcel sent to an Islamic bookshop in Chicago was planned as a dry run to get the timing right.

White House spokesman Nicholas Shapiro said: "We greatly appreciate the highly professional nature of the UK investigation and the spirit of partnership with which UK authorities have pursued this matter."

The alert has exposed the vulnerability of passenger aircraft which carry 60 per cent of unaccompanied cargo into the US.

The plan to blow up aircraft as they came in to land in the US has echoes of the trans-Atlantic airline plot of 2006 in which British suicide bombers were planning to attack at least seven aircraft flying to north America using homemade liquid bombs.

The real device was taken apart just under three hours before it was set to detonate but explosives officers from Scotland Yard did not realise at the time that they had defused a live bomb.

The UPS parcel flight from Cologne to Chicago landed at East Midlands airport to refuel at 2.13am on Friday October 29, according to new information released by the police.

Officers from the Metropolitan Police Counter Terrorism Command received a tip-off as it stood on the tarmac at 3.28am and scrambled to make the 120 mile journey up the M1.

In the meantime it was removed from the plane by cargo handlers, taken to a warehouse and cordoned by Leicestershire Police.

The cargo plane took off at 4.20am heading for Chicago and would probably have been over Canada or the East coast of the US, depending on the route taken, when the device was set to go off six hours later.

However the police said it was “disrupted” at East Midlands Airport by explosive officers during the initial examination when they removed the printer cartridge from the printer at approximately 7.40am.

The officers did not find the 400g of PETN explosive inside the printer cartridge and gave the all clear at around 10am.

Meanwhile MI6 went back to the source of the tip-off in Saudi Arabia to get further information and the explosives were eventually discovered at around 2pm.

A similar device was found around the same time in Dubai that had also been sent from Yemen.

Inside each parcel was a printer and some souvenirs and books designed to make it look as though the package was being sent by a student.

The bombs were addressed to two synagogues in Chicago, one of which was the former address of the Or Chadash congregation, which serves lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgendered Jews and their families.

The return addresses given were two English language schools in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, the Yemen American Institute for Languages-Computer Management, and the American Center for Training and Development.


Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
398. jurakantaino
1:03 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting greentortuloni:
Quoting Seastep:
Call me crazy, but I prefer a warm planet.

Cold is bad. Warm is good. Cold = less precipitable water. Warm = more precipitable water. More precipitable water = more life.

Just saying.


Even if a slightly warmer planet is acceptable, the problem is the speed of the change. This is like arguing that because the mean elevation of the earth is 100 meters above sea level(no idea what the actual value is), this descent is a good thing. If the descent (or ascent in this case) stops at a degree or two higher and some ice melts but no one gets hurt: okay, no big deal.

But what is going on is the equivalent of descending at 100 mph. There is nothing to stop it. The cycles from the original periods were counter balanced. There is as yet no counter balance to this swing.

I hope China or one of the other countries that is assuming the mantle of technological leadership from us will solve the problem. (I think with the Chinese investment in renewable energy, notably electric transportation, they are the most likely candidate now.) I just don't see America ever getting off it's fat butt to actually solve anything. We are too interested in fighting over scraps of political power to actually recognize the real problems, let alone solve them.
Agree with you a 100%
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
397. Jeff9641
12:57 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Bomb was set to explode over NYC but the bomb foiled while on a UPS Cargo plane. Another bomb was found in Dubia as well on a plane heading to the US. Very serious stuff happening right now and apparenting OBAMA got wind of this and took his family out of the US for awhile. These bombs are Yemen based and are being targeted for the NE cities. Could be the reason for a missil launch off California.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
396. HurricaneDean07
12:56 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Morning All, Seems like possible Virginie is showing up on the hurricane models a lot better than puala and richard ever did. On the 00z GFS is also hinting at walter.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
395. GeoffreyWPB
12:47 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11394
394. IKE
11:37 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU NOV 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
393. IKE
10:51 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
430 AM EST THU NOV 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 22N62W TO 1010 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 21N63W THEN TO 12N71W. FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES E THROUGH
THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND NW THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT
NIGHT TO 22N55W TO 18N62W TO 16N75W TO NEW 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
12N79W. FRONT DISSIPATES SUN AND THE WEAK LOW PRES REMAINS
STATIONARY THROUGH MON.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
392. PalmBeachWeather
10:02 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:


Sarcasim......AGAIN AND AGAIN


TampaSpin...Now you are REALLY showing your butt...EVERYONE makes fun of Fox news, and he did put a j/k after his statement.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5927
391. sforzando
9:50 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
The funny thing is that we in the UK get storms that are more intense (in pressure at least) than the "mega-storm" that caused all the fuss over the Midwest a couple of weeks ago, maybe half a dozen times a year - and we're likely to pass them off with "Oh, it's going to be a bit windy this afternoon."

The lowest pressure recorded in the UK was 927mb. Strange these Atlantic depressions aren't they?


Quoting CycloneUK:
Wow. 949mb low:



Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
390. greentortuloni
9:07 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting Seastep:
Call me crazy, but I prefer a warm planet.

Cold is bad. Warm is good. Cold = less precipitable water. Warm = more precipitable water. More precipitable water = more life.

Just saying.


Even if a slightly warmer planet is acceptable, the problem is the speed of the change. This is like arguing that because the mean elevation of the earth is 100 meters above sea level(no idea what the actual value is), this descent is a good thing. If the descent (or ascent in this case) stops at a degree or two higher and some ice melts but no one gets hurt: okay, no big deal.

But what is going on is the equivalent of descending at 100 mph. There is nothing to stop it. The cycles from the original periods were counter balanced. There is as yet no counter balance to this swing.

I hope China or one of the other countries that is assuming the mantle of technological leadership from us will solve the problem. (I think with the Chinese investment in renewable energy, notably electric transportation, they are the most likely candidate now.) I just don't see America ever getting off it's fat butt to actually solve anything. We are too interested in fighting over scraps of political power to actually recognize the real problems, let alone solve them.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
389. tornadodude
8:28 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
something to watch on Friday

SPC AC 110601

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CST THU NOV 11 2010

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD... WITH
A STRONG HIGH CENTER DEVELOPING 700 MILES OR SO WEST OF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE PREVAILING
DOWNSTREAM SPLIT UPPER FLOW...BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. RIDGING IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN WEAKENING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...BUT A
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER
MODIFICATION OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... BUT
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE INFLUX OF MOISTURE IS NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
WITHIN AT LEAST A NARROW TONGUE OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOWER 6OS SURFACE DEW POINTS PROBABLY WILL
ADVECT INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TODAY...AND PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY...PRIOR TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

WHILE IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK...CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY PERSISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...AND AN ATTENDANT SIGNIFICANT REMNANT
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGGED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD. REGARDLESS...THOUGH...THE RELATIVELY
WEAK NATURE OF THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SUGGESTS THAT THE RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED...PARTICULARLY WITH
DESTABILIZATION STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK.

...PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT STEEPEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT CAPE MUCH MORE THAN 250 TO PERHAPS 500
J/KG...DUE TO THE TENDENCY OF THE MID-LEVEL FORCING TO LAG TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...CONCERN STILL EXISTS FOR A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
TIMING OF THE UPPER IMPULSE...AND FRONTAL PASSAGE...REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER THE FASTER OR SLOWER MODELS VERIFY...APPEARS FAVORABLE TO
ALLOW FOR THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM AND WEAKLY DESTABILIZE
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF ADJACENT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. IF THIS OCCURS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO.
ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FORCING LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW BECOMES CUT OFF.

..KERR.. 11/11/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0827Z (3:27AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
388. tornadodude
8:26 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
387. KerryInNOLA
8:23 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting JFLORIDA:
The thing is eventually the US will move on to other technologies, comparatively quickly. That will leave the developing nations creating pollution at the levels we did with even higher populations. WE will be on the receiving end of it too.

Another thing the US is a world leader in green tech NOW. As we become lax on tax credits and incentives and don't invest in upgrading our infrastructure the ONLY thing we can compete in manufacturing is going to go overseas.

I dont see any benefit economic, environmental or strategic in denial. Its just more expensive mistakes we will end up paying for down the road.

Why not put it in place while we have the upper hand, setting the limits to when we used to be manufacture more as suggested. Also US based regulation will will benefit us ion other ways. It will eventually have to happen - The deniers are going to have us doing it in 30-50 years when other countries will make the rules, basically to the benefit of foreign interests (oil and oil service conglomerates) and dirty energy - like coal.

Its not a very wise move.
Infrastructure upgrades don't get votes unfortunately.
In my opinion there will probably never be clean coal.What you say is unfortunately true about tomorrow's polluters. Will China clean up their mess? Possibly.

My greatest hope is for a breakthrough in fusion technology in the not to distant future Perhaps new discoveries at the LHC about the nature of gravity will spill over to fusion research someday.
Member Since: August 15, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1304
386. JFLORIDA
8:04 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
The thing is eventually the US will move on to other technologies, comparatively quickly. That will leave the developing nations creating pollution at the levels we did with even higher populations. WE will be on the receiving end of it too.

Another thing the US is a world leader in green tech NOW. As we become lax on tax credits and incentives and don't invest in upgrading our infrastructure the ONLY thing we can compete in manufacturing is going to go overseas.

I dont see any benefit economic, environmental or strategic in denial. Its just more expensive mistakes we will end up paying for down the road.

Why not put it in place while we have the upper hand, setting the limits to when we used to be manufacture more as suggested. Also US based regulation will will benefit us ion other ways. It will eventually have to happen - The deniers are going to have us doing it in 30-50 years when other countries will make the rules, basically to the benefit of foreign interests (oil and oil service conglomerates) and dirty energy - like coal.

Its not a very wise move.
Member Since: May 22, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743
385. KerryInNOLA
7:49 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting JFLORIDA:
378 yea rise in sea level. ocean acidification, desertification, increased mercury and heavy metal pollution of the oceans and terrestrial habitats, toxic side effects of fossil fuel combustion, extinctions, loss of diversity of lifestyle heritage , increased extreme weather events - thats just of few of the things that will go with a destabilized climate.

I don't want that - should I be FORCED along with everyone else to live in that because people living in societies cant modify their group behavior so it doesn't heavily impact the lives of others?
JF, they're not going to change their habits. I'm glad I won't be around in 100 years, cause it won't be very livable.
Member Since: August 15, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1304
384. JFLORIDA
7:36 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
378 yea rise in sea level. ocean acidification, desertification, increased mercury and heavy metal pollution of the oceans and terrestrial habitats, toxic side effects of fossil fuel combustion, extinctions, loss of diversity of lifestyle heritage , increased extreme weather events - thats just of few of the things that will go with a destabilized climate.

I don't want that - should I be FORCED along with everyone else to live in that because people living in societies cant modify their group behavior so it doesn't heavily impact the lives of others?
Member Since: May 22, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743
383. JFLORIDA
7:26 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
377 I cant believe how many sites "source" Anthony Watts. Do you even know the particular climate study where that data was used and what statistical methods were used to eliminate error?


Did watts reference it? - or is things another "conspiracy Blog" of his?

Anthony Watts the "broadcast meteorologist."


Watts cant handle the heavy mathematics of modern climate science. Hes proved that. Hes been proven wrong a few times now and wont admit it.

Besides its a BLOGGER site. If they had a legitimate point they could publish.

Filtering inhomogeneities out of meteorological data is a complicated procedure. Coherent surface air temperature (SAT) datasets like those produced by CRU also require a procedure for combining different (but relatively nearby) record fragments. However, the methods used to undertake these unavoidable tasks are not secret: they have been described in an extensive literature over many decades (e.g. Conrad, 1944; Jones and Moberg, 2003; Peterson et al., 1998, and references therein). Discontinuities may nevertheless persist in data products, but when they are found they are published (e.g. Thompson et al., 2008)
Member Since: May 22, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743
382. tornadodude
7:24 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting TomTaylor:
I'm calling for a South Atlantic Topical Storm for the up and coming tropical storm season in the southern hemisphere


that'd be cool
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
381. TomTaylor
6:53 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
I'm calling for a South Atlantic Topical Storm for the up and coming tropical storm season in the southern hemisphere
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
380. TampaSpin
6:13 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:


Blogger Believes Webcam Image Solves 'Missile' Mystery

Its from Fox news..so it has to be Gospel. j/k


Sarcasim......AGAIN AND AGAIN
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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