Record quiet tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) in the southern Caribbean a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air at middle levels of the atmosphere. Satellite images show just a few clumps of heavy thunderstorms, and no sign of a surface circulation. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, which is greatly hampering development. NHC is giving 94L just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. Wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, but the dry air surrounding 94L is probably too great too allow development. 94L may bring heavy rains to Honduras on Wednesday, and Belize on Thursday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 94L.
A record quiet typhoon season
While the Atlantic has had its third busiest season on record this year, it has been a record quiet year for tropical cyclones in both the Eastern and Western Pacific. In the Western Pacific, it is currently the quietest typhoon season on record, according to statistics computed by forecaster Paul Stanko at the NWS office on Guam. On average, by this point in the season, there should have been 24.5 named storms, 16 typhoons, and 4 supertyphoons (storms with 150+ mph winds.) So far in 2010, there have been just 14 named storms, 8 typhoons, and 1 supertyphoon. The record lows for the Western Pacific (since 1951) are 18 named storms, 9 typhoons, and 0 supertyphoons. We have a good chance of beating or tying the records for fewest named storms and fewest typhoons, since there are no current threat areas, and none of the models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next ten days.
A record quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season
In the Eastern Pacific, it has also been a record-quiet season. On average, the Eastern Pacific has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes in a season. So far in 2010, there have been 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The record quietest season since 1966 was the year 1977, when the Eastern Pacific had 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes. There is a good chance that the 2010 Eastern Pacific hurricane season is over, since we are already into mid-November, and November storms are quite rare in the Eastern Pacific. La Niña is largely responsible to the quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season, due in part to the cool sea surface temperatures it brought. La Niña also commonly causes less active Western Pacific typhoon seasons, since the warmest waters there shift closer to Asia, reducing the amount of time storms have over water. Still, it is quite remarkable that both of these ocean basins are having record quiet seasons in the same year--there is no historical precedent for such an occurrence.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Probably all over for 94L
LMAO!!, I think she'll probably be singing for abit.It is possible for another TD/TS to form between now and mid December, but personally I think its over!
Hi, I'm from Barbados and not a "Met person". I've been watching this area for the past few days.
Sometimes it was looking kind of ominous but then seemed to dissipate - my extremely wild guess is that this was due to wind shear.
Anyhow, the following is an extract from the NHC's 105pm est tropical outlook discussion for the Atlantic.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS INT HE W
TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 14N57W TO 8N56W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-14N W OF 50W TO
THE TROUGH AXIS AND S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA W OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO 60W. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND SHOULD REACH THE ISLANDS ON
WED.
Around the 26 or 27th when the arctic air tightens its grip on the mid atlantic and for much of the northern half of the country, models are saying that a cold front may move through at that time and bring first snowflakes to parts of the Mid-Atlantic and NE. That will happen when the cold air filters in if there is any precip left after the front itself passes through.
Updated: 44 min 28 sec ago
29 °C
Overcast
Humidity: 74%
Dew Point: 24 °C
Wind: 11 km/h / 3.1 m/s from the West
Pressure: 1010 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 34 °C
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 609 m
Overcast 2743 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 2 m
Rapid Fire Updates:
TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Updated: 1 hr 8 min 12 sec ago
29 °C
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 74%
Dew Point: 24 °C
Wind: 11 km/h / 3.1 m/s from the South
Pressure: 1008 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 34 °C
Visibility: 8.0 kilometers
UV: 8 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 487 m
Scattered Clouds 3048 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 m
Rapid Fire Updates:
Link
San Andres, CO (Airport)
Updated: 36 min 18 sec ago
29 °C
Overcast
Humidity: 74%
Dew Point: 24 °C
Wind: 13 km/h / 3.6 m/s from the West
Pressure: 1009 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 34 °C
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
UV: 2 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 609 m
Overcast 2743 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 2 m
Rapid Fire Updates:
pressure down 1mb
You may be right..We have at least one more TC for the Atlantic in my opinion!!
Thank You. I have been monitoring it myself and believe it was dry air affecting it organization. It appear to be flaring up again this afternoon.
Puerto Cabezas, NK (Airport)
Updated: 11 min 57 sec ago
29 °C
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 25 °C
Wind: 15 km/h / 4.1 m/s from the SSE
Pressure: 1007 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 34 °C
Visibility: 8.0 kilometers
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds: Few 487 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 m
1007mb and falling!
Hey, Were you the one looking to surf in Barbados??
And look at our temps at that time as well, at or below freezing.
Here in PR, Local Met's declaring season over.... .... Cold fronts arriving, winds from NE and NW bring cooler temps and Surfing season quite active....
This is just for you, hydrus!
Link
Whats
that?
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 24 - 30 2010
A MAJOR TRANSITION IN THE CIRCULATION PATTERN IS PREDICTED BY TODAYS DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS AGREE ON
A DEAMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS, THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD MAPS FROM THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, ALL
INDICATE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE UPSTREAM PACIFIC.
SOME OF THE SURFACE TOOLS, SUCH AS THE KLEIN AND ANALOG TEMPERATURES, SHOW
FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY COMPARABLE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. THOUGH THIS MAY OCCUR,
IT IS THOUGHT TO BE TOO EXTREME, ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING THAT EVEN IF A NEW
CIRCULATION PATTERN RAPIDLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED, IT STILL TAKES A DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ADJUST TO THIS NEW
PATTERN.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: WELL BELOW AVERAGE, 1 ON A
SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF A VERY RAPID TRANSITION FROM THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THESE VERY RAPID TRANSITIONS THAT OCCUR OCCASIONALLY DURING
THE AUTUMN SEASON ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO TIME ACCURATELY.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
Don't worry it's just ..
(puntito puntito)
72. stormpetrol 8:07 PM EDT on May 22, 2009
And means... dot dot. :-)
time to start thinking about thanksgiving and christmas.
I had been watching the banana spiders around my house for the past several months.
Over the past 2 months, they've been dying out. There has been one very large one in the primest position by the automatic light on the stairs. She had her last great meal yesterday and finally, this morning, she's gone.
Guess she knows when to quit!
Nov 25 Thursday
Plenty of sun. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Viewing: 51 - 101
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