Record quiet tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) in the southern Caribbean a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air at middle levels of the atmosphere. Satellite images show just a few clumps of heavy thunderstorms, and no sign of a surface circulation. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, which is greatly hampering development. NHC is giving 94L just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. Wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, but the dry air surrounding 94L is probably too great too allow development. 94L may bring heavy rains to Honduras on Wednesday, and Belize on Thursday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 94L.
A record quiet typhoon season
While the Atlantic has had its third busiest season on record this year, it has been a record quiet year for tropical cyclones in both the Eastern and Western Pacific. In the Western Pacific, it is currently the quietest typhoon season on record, according to statistics computed by forecaster Paul Stanko at the NWS office on Guam. On average, by this point in the season, there should have been 24.5 named storms, 16 typhoons, and 4 supertyphoons (storms with 150+ mph winds.) So far in 2010, there have been just 14 named storms, 8 typhoons, and 1 supertyphoon. The record lows for the Western Pacific (since 1951) are 18 named storms, 9 typhoons, and 0 supertyphoons. We have a good chance of beating or tying the records for fewest named storms and fewest typhoons, since there are no current threat areas, and none of the models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next ten days.
A record quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season
In the Eastern Pacific, it has also been a record-quiet season. On average, the Eastern Pacific has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes in a season. So far in 2010, there have been 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The record quietest season since 1966 was the year 1977, when the Eastern Pacific had 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes. There is a good chance that the 2010 Eastern Pacific hurricane season is over, since we are already into mid-November, and November storms are quite rare in the Eastern Pacific. La Niña is largely responsible to the quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season, due in part to the cool sea surface temperatures it brought. La Niña also commonly causes less active Western Pacific typhoon seasons, since the warmest waters there shift closer to Asia, reducing the amount of time storms have over water. Still, it is quite remarkable that both of these ocean basins are having record quiet seasons in the same year--there is no historical precedent for such an occurrence.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
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Nov 25 Thursday
Plenty of sun. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
the fat lady starts to sing
ABNT20 KNHC 162331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS LIMITED...
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
228 PM MST TUE NOV 16 2010
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IS PASSING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ROSE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PARK RANGE ACCUMULATED ABOUT 6
INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM THIS MORNING.
AT 130 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH VERNAL AND CRAIG AND WAS QUICKLY
SWEEPING SE TO EXIT THIS FORECAST AREA BY AROUND SUNSET.
THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT IN NW COLORADO...WITH A
DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT TO NW G40MPH AND A SHARP COOL DOWN.
HIGHLIGHTS ARE ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUTS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS. OUTPUT IS AN AVERAGE OF 8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERN MTNS...BUT CONVECTIVE ELEMENT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. FRONTAL WINDS ARE GUSTING 40 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON.
POST-FRONTAL OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. 700MB
TEMPERATURES DROP AS LOW AS -10C TOWARDS MORNING. THE UNSTABLE MOIST
LAYER QUICKLY COLLAPSES AS NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10MPH AT 700MB.
THEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO SW AND QUICKLY
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BEGINS BY THE AFTERNOON
FOR DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. 700MB WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 35-40KTS
ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. HIGH EXPOSED TERRAIN AND
LEE/NE-FACING SLOPES WILL SEE THESE GUSTY WINDS WHILE MOST VALLEYS
WILL REMAIN IN THE INVERSION.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER A FLATTENED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME VALLEYS WILL
BE SLOWER TO WARM AS THEY REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER INVERSIONS. WINDS AT
MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL BE GUSTY WITH A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT FLOW AS 700 MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE.
A STRONG CLOSED OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AND BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BY SATURDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY UNDER PREFRONTAL
SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL JET
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER OUR CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
EVENING. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH 700MB WINDS OF 50-60 KTS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SEVERAL
STRONG VORT MAXES PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
THIS WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL PRODUCTION OVER MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE
REMAINS PREVALENT.
MID-RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT WITH SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN THE DETAILS BUT STILL REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH
OROGRAPHIC MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREFORE
BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY OVER MOUNTAINS WITH LOW END CHANCE IN
VALLEYS PARTICULARLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
how about this
sophie tucker is warming up in the wings
Detailed: mid Monday on northern shores has high surf from 290-310 degrees at 14-19 second intervals. It was generated by a captured fetch of severe gales that tracked from near Hokkaido last Tuesday night to the dateline by Friday as it weakened. Wave watch iii model was a notch high at the buoy 51101 and Waimea buoy locations. Shadowing by Niihau and Kauai is affecting Oahu. Mid Monday buoy 51101 measurements suggest high surf into Monday night. This episode is expected to drop below the high mark around sunrise on Tuesday. Moderate surf should prevail through the afternoon, then drop to small levels on Wednesday, all from the same direction 290-310 degrees.
The north Pacific jet stream has had a fairly steady pattern with a trough over the western basin and a ridge to the east. This is making for an extended period of longer period swell of westerly component and shorter period swell from the east.
Another surface low pressure followed a similar track from Hokkaido to the dateline starting late Friday. However, gales to severe gales did not form until about half way across. The jet stream pinched off an eddy early Sunday, as the surface low pressure stalled in forward track and winds reached their maximum at storm force. This system had a narrower, shorter fetch over a similar band of 285-310 degrees, with a smaller episode expected. The jason altimeter measured 20-25 feet seas near the dateline at 12Z Monday that validated well Wave Watch III predictions. This suggests the wave model guidance to be more on track than the Monday episode.
The new swell is due in Wednesday morning, building to within the moderate to near high bracket by the afternoon. The episode should peak Wednesday night, hold at moderate heights on Thursday, and drop to small levels on Friday, still from 290-310 degrees. Tiny to small residuals are possible on Saturday.
Models show a strong high over the Aleutians and a deep low west of vancouver starting Tuesday, that should initiate a small event from 010-030 degrees mid Saturday.
Mid Monday on eastern shores has marginally high breakers under fresh breezes from 80-100 degrees. Similar surf is expected on Tuesday.
Local winds are expected to decline enough to allow land and sea breezes by as soon as Wednesday. See the latest NWS state weather forecast discussion for details.
A strong high pressure system between Hawaii and California has been producing fresh to strong breezes, with near gales furthest east, over the past several days. Models show the speeds decreasing on Tuesday, ending the source. However, with the fetch stretched over 2000 nm, that should keep the conveyor belt moving for 5 days, with a slow downward trend. The direction should also slowly change toward 50 degrees into mid week and holding to the weekend.
Mid Monday on southern shores has a small southern hemisphere episode. It was generated by marginal gales near the subtropics east of New Zealand about a week ago. This episode is expected to linger into Wednesday. No other sources of southern hemisphere swell is due this period.
Zones with easterly exposure should have above average breakers this week, with a downward trend as the windswell backs in direction.
Into the long range, another gale SE of New Zealand could bring in a small episode 11/22-23 from 185-200 degrees.
In the northern hemisphere, models show a marginal gale forming near 170°E, 45°N on Tuesday, nosing toward the dateline over the 305-315 degree band into Wednesday. This could give a moderate episode starting Saturday night. A nearby weak low in some models to the NNW of Hawaii about 700 nm out on Thursday through Friday could add to this episode, potentially giving it a notch more in size on Sunday. Models show another system tracking east from Hokkaido late Thursday, with an occlusion, or pinched-off jet stream eddy, by Saturday on the dateline. That would give an episode in the moderate to high bracket starting next Monday night from 290-310 degrees.
The gulf of Alaska system could give small to moderate breakers from 10-30 degrees 11/21-23, Sunday into Tuesday. Models have been mixed on winds, with climatology giving moderate trades early next week.
Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions.
This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday, November 17.
in a gasp of dry air we are divided and conquered one molecule at a time
not sure if she dies now or stays with the sack all winter and then lives another year.
guess this is the wrong blog for that topic but sure would like to know what happens.
The first official 2011 ATL Hurricane season analysis will be out in December..
Meanwhile the North Pole appears to be ready to visit the CONUS, as the climate folks at NCEP try to disagree with the model set up that has been very consistent for 6 straight days!!
Back to lurking :)
Invest 94L basically dissipates
Good night everyone!
14.5N/80.5W?? Do you agree?
Quite remarkable, indeed. Now, I've been scratching my head hard--I mean, really, really hard--and I haven't been able to think of a single thing that could possibly be having some global-wide effect on the atmosphere, something that would cause such a low number of Pacific storms. There's absolutely no sign--none whatsoever--of anything caused by man or nature that could be changing weather or the climate in such a way. Nothing. Guess I'll just have to keep looking...
;-)
The Golden Silk Orb Weaver is commonly referred to (in Florida) as a Banana Spider. They are not the same. The Orb weaver web was actually used in weapon sites in the past due to its natural durability and strength. I actually raised one of these some years ago, and it is now located in a display case at Linger Lodge Restaurant in Florida (and there is more to that story). The Brazilian wandering spider is the very poisonous other one, that actually hide in banana plants.
Here is some info for ya ;)
http://www.floridanature.org/species.asp?species=nephila_clavipes
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoneutria_bahiensis
http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-a-banana-spider.htm
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010
TORNADO WATCH 741 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
VAC003-007-009-011-015-019-023-025-029-031-037-041-049-053-063-
065-067-075-083-085-087-089-109-111-117-121-125-135-141-143-145-
147-161-163-515-530-540-590-678-680-690-760-770-775-790-820-
170900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0741.101117T0150Z-101117T0900Z/
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE AMELIA AMHERST
APPOMATTOX AUGUSTA BEDFORD
BOTETOURT BRUNSWICK BUCKINGHAM
CAMPBELL CHARLOTTE CHESTERFIELD
CUMBERLAND DINWIDDIE FLOYD
FLUVANNA FRANKLIN GOOCHLAND
HALIFAX HANOVER HENRICO
HENRY LOUISA LUNENBURG
MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY NELSON
NOTTOWAY PATRICK PITTSYLVANIA
POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD ROANOKE
ROCKBRIDGE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BUENA VISTA CHARLOTTESVILLE
DANVILLE LEXINGTON LYNCHBURG
MARTINSVILLE RICHMOND ROANOKE
SALEM STAUNTON WAYNESBORO
$$
ATTN...WFO...RAH...LWX...RNK...AKQ...GSP...CAE...ILM...
Date: 8:00 PM EST Tuesday 16 November 2010
Condition: Rain
Pressure: 100.2 kPa
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 11 km
Air Quality Health Index: 2
Temperature: 8.5°C
Dewpoint: 8.1°C
Humidity: 97 %
Wind: ENE 30 gust 41 km/h
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 PM EST Tuesday 16 November 2010
Condition: Rain
Pressure: 29.59 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 7 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2
Temperature: 47.3°F
Dewpoint: 46.6°F
Humidity: 97 %
Wind: ENE 19 gust 25 mph
Look to see the selling history and you will know what the value is?
127,,, Little known information on Multidecadal Ocillations will make everyone scratch their heads. Just watch and see as global temps plummet further. That is actually all we can really do :)
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010
TORNADO WATCH 741 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
NCC001-003-007-025-033-035-037-045-051-057-059-063-067-069-071-
077-081-085-093-097-101-105-109-119-123-125-135-145-151-153-155-
157-159-165-167-169-179-181-183-185-197-170900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0741.101117T0150Z-101117T0900Z/
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE ALEXANDER ANSON
CABARRUS CASWELL CATAWBA
CHATHAM CLEVELAND CUMBERLAND
DAVIDSON DAVIE DURHAM
FORSYTH FRANKLIN GASTON
GRANVILLE GUILFORD HARNETT
HOKE IREDELL JOHNSTON
LEE LINCOLN MECKLENBURG
MONTGOMERY MOORE ORANGE
PERSON RANDOLPH RICHMOND
ROBESON ROCKINGHAM ROWAN
SCOTLAND STANLY STOKES
UNION VANCE WAKE
WARREN YADKIN
SCC021-023-025-031-033-039-055-057-061-063-069-071-079-081-085-
087-091-170900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0741.101117T0150Z-101117T0900Z/
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE CHESTER CHESTERFIELD
DARLINGTON DILLON FAIRFIELD
KERSHAW LANCASTER LEE
LEXINGTON MARLBORO NEWBERRY
RICHLAND SALUDA SUMTER
UNION YORK
Some, myself included, would say that that is one of the reasons meteorology is so interesting. Though that's hardly a reason to withhold further research into unknown areas, like this one.
"Plummet further"? But that wording would imply that temps are plummeting already, wouldn't it? And since 2010 has been one of the warmest years on record, that statement would be a hard sell, now wouldn't it? ;-)
Figure 1. ECMWF temperature anomaly forecast for the Niño/Niña 3.4 region located along the central equatorial Pacific.
Source: ECMWF Niño plumes/seasonal forecast
1) Higher-than-normal shear;
2) Reduced SSTs;
3) A more stable atmosphere;
4) More dust;
4) Reduced background vorticity or Coriolis gradient where cyclones develop (for example, ITCZ closer to equator or more sinking air.)
Intensity of cyclones that do develop could be inhibited by many of the same factors, plus TCHP.
It has already been mentioned that SSTs were lower in the NE and NW Pacific areas this year. That is a start, but most likely not the whole story. To solve the puzzle, round up the usual list of suspects (above) and analyze them. (and what of the Indian Ocean? Where does it fit into this picture?)
Monday, November 15, 2010 3:45pm PST
New Zealand orcas join surfers in search for the perfect wave
By: Pete Thomas
When the latest big swell arrived at Sandy Bay in northern New Zealand, it wasn't the waves making headlines, but the sleek black-and-white surfers who rode them.
Orcas, or killer whales, positioned themselves prominently and made it clear they were the real experts -- and that no mere human on a surfboard was going to deny them whatever waves they wanted.
"They knew what they were doing," Michael Cunningham, a Northern Advocate photographer and witness, told the newspaper. "They looked like they'd done it before."
New Zealand's orcas, unlike those in other parts of the world, are known to occasionally embark on surfing forays, but rarely is someone on the beach ready with a camera.
im lost wasnt this season ridiculously busy?
Nice stuff, and kinda makes ya wonder whats next. LOL~~~ L8R
http://www.eye.fi/how-it-works/basics
Excellent tech tip....
That SD card with WiFi is excellent for a reporter, takes video and it is already sent to Facebook, or his TV network. For surveillance, if robbed the face of the guy you record on video, is sent to whatever place you want, even if he breaks your camera.... And it has many other applications...
From 1850 to 1880 = active period.
From 1890 to 1930 = quiet period
Notice how the # of hurricanes stays relatively the same, accept for the end when it raises once again. The new decade is here so 2010 is on there.
From 1940 to 1990 = In-between Period
From 1995/2000 to Present-Continuing = Active Period
I think with the current pattern we will see the the active period continue for another 8 Years.
I'll be gone from the blog for probably about a two to four weeks...
will be on for a few more minutes so if you have any questions on the subject, above please ask...
LATEST CURRENT SURFACE
Link
REMEMBERING THE STORMS OF 2010...
Alex - 110 MPH, 946 MB, 33 Dead, $1,885,000
Bonnie - 40 MPH, 1005 MB, 1 Dead, $2,000
Colin - 60 MPH, 1005 MB, 1 Dead, Minimal
Danielle 135 MPH, 942 MB, 1 Dead, Minimal
Earl - 145 MPH, 928 MB, 6 Dead, $44,600,000
Fiona - 65 MPH, 998 MB, No Dead, None
Gaston - 40 MPH, 1005 MB, No Dead, None
Hermine - 65 MPH, 991 MB, 8 Dead, $115,000,000
Igor - 155 MPH, 925 MB, 4 Dead, $163,900,000
Julia - 140 MPH, 948 MB, No Dead, Minimal
Karl - 120 MPH, 956 MB, 22 Dead, $6 Billion
Lisa - 85 MPH, 982 MB, No Dead, None
Matthew - 60 MPH, 998 MB, 126 Dead, $3 Billion
Nicole - 40 MPH, 996 MB, 13 Dead, $235,400,000
Otto - 85 MPH, 972 MB, 1 Dead, $58,000,000
Paula - 100 MPH, 981 MB, 1 Dead, Unknown
Richard - 90 MPH, 981 MB, 2 Dead, $24,700,000
Shary - 75 MPH, 989 MB, No Dead, None
Tomas - 100 MPH, 982 MB, 41 Dead, $572,000,000
21 Tropical Cyclones
19 Named Storms
12 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes
282 Directly and Indirectly Dead
11.299 Billion Dollars At The Least...
This is one heck of a season...
Bye All, Be back in 2 to 4 weeks!
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