Amazon rainforest recovering from its second 100-year drought in 5 years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:32 PM GMT on December 03, 2010

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Life-giving rains have returned over the past two months to Earth's greatest rainforest--the mighty Amazon--after it experienced its second 100-year drought in five years this year. The record drought began in April, during the usual start to the region's dry season, when rainfall less than 75% of average fell over much of the southern Amazon (Figure 2.) The drought continued through September, and by October, when the rainy season finally arrived, the largest northern tributary of the Amazon River--the Rio Negro--had dropped to thirteen feet (four meters) below its usual dry season level. This was its lowest level since record keeping began in 1902. The low water mark is all the more remarkable since the Rio Negro caused devastating flooding in 2009, when it hit an all-time record high, 53 ft (16 m) higher than the 2010 record low. The 2010 drought is similar in intensity and scope to the region's previous 100-year drought, which hit the Amazon in 2005, according to Brazil's National Institute of Space Research. Severe fires burned throughout the Amazon in both 2005 and 2010, leading to declarations of states of emergencies.


Figure 1. Hundreds of fires (red squares) generate thick smoke over a 1000 mile-wide region of the southern Amazon rain forest in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on August 16, 2010. The Bolivian government declared a state of emergency in mid-August due to the out-of-control fires burning over much of the country. Image credit: NASA.

Causes of the great 2010 Amazon drought
During the 20th Century, drought was a frequent visitor to the Amazon, with significant droughts occurring an average of once every twelve years. These droughts typically occurred during El Niño years, when the unusually warm waters present along the Pacific coast of South America altered rainfall patterns. But 2010 was a La Niña year. The 100-year drought of 2005 occurred in an El Niño-neutral year. Subsequent analysis of the 2005 drought revealed that it was unlike previous El Niño-driven droughts, and instead was caused by record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic (Phillips et al., 2009.) These warm ocean waters affected the southern 2/3 of the Amazon though reduced precipitation and higher than average temperatures. Very similar record Atlantic sea surface temperatures were observed in 2010, and likely were the dominant cause for the 2010 drought.


Figure 2. The great Amazon drought of 2010 began in April, when portions of the southern Amazon recorded precipitation amounts less than 75% of normal (brown colors). The drought spread northward and peaked during July and August, but drew to a close by November when the rainy season began. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

The importance of the Amazon to Earth's climate
We often hear about how important Arctic sea ice is for keeping Earth's climate cool, but the Amazon may be even more important. Photosynthesis in the world's largest rainforest takes about 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the air each year. However, in 2005, the drought reversed this process. The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 16 - 22% of the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year. According to Phillips et al., 2009, "The exceptional growth in atmospheric CO2 concentrations in 2005, the third greatest in the global record, may have been partially caused by the Amazon drought effects documented here." The Amazon stores CO2 in its soils and biomass equivalent to about fifteen years of human-caused emissions, so a massive die-back of the forest could greatly accelerate global warming. In late 2009, before the 2010 drought, the World Wildlife Federation released a report, Major Tipping Points in the Earth's Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector, which suggested that odds of extreme 2005-like droughts in the Amazon had increased from once every 40 - 100 years, to once every 20 years. The study projected that the extreme droughts would occur once every two years by 2025 - 2050. This year's drought gives me concern that this prediction may be correct. The occurrence of two extreme droughts in the past five years, when no El Niño conditions were present and record warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures occurred, are suggestive of a link between global warming and extreme Amazon drought. If the climate continues to warm as expected, the future health of Earth's greatest rainforest may be greatly threatened, and the Amazon may begin acting to increase the rate of global warming. According to Rosie Fisher, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado who specializes in interactions between climate and forests, "I'm genuinely quite alarmed by this. In some ways it kind of reminds me of when they figured out than the Greenland ice sheet was melting much faster than the climate models predicted it would."

Deforestation in Brazilian Amazon falls to lowest rate on record
There is some good news from the Amazon--deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have fallen 14% in the past year, and are at their lowest rate on record, according to mongabay.com, an environmental science and conservation news site that focuses on tropical forests. In 2009, Brazil passed a law committing to a 36 - 39% reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases. Reducing deforestation by 80% by 2020 was the primary method envisioned to achieve the reduction. Brazil is now four years ahead of that schedule, and no longer is the world's biggest deforester--Indonesia now cuts down more acreage of forest each year than Brazil does.

For more information
Nick Sundt at the WWF Climate Blog has a remarkably detailed post on this year's Amazon drought, and Dr. Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has another excellent post.

Phillips, et al., 2009, Drought Sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest, Science 6 March 2009: Vol. 323 no. 5919 pp. 1344-1347 DOI: 10.1126/science.1164033.

I'll have new post Monday or Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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496. dsauder
3:17 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Is there ONE good reason why terms like "100 year flood (or drought)" and "all time high(or low)" should be used in any scientific context? There is no such thing as a "100 year flood" and there is no such thing as an "all time high".

How long were accurate records kept?

It is VERY unscientific to use such ambiguous terms when talking about what most folks regard as science.

It is no wonder at all why there is ongoing controversy and doubt about so-called scientific subjects such as "global warming", "biological evolution of life from non-living matter", "worm holes", "multiple universes", etc.

These and other issues that cannot be experimented upon directly and repeatedly are beyond the realm of science. Therefore, all statements regarding such issues are guesses at best and total nonsense at worst.

I am only complaining about writers stating as fact that which is conjecture at best.

Please grow up and learn some critical thinking skills!
Member Since: April 13, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
495. Nix
2:03 AM GMT on March 20, 2012
what do you mean by 100 year drought?....don't you mean 100 day drought?
Member Since: July 5, 2003 Posts: 1 Comments: 3
494. BahaHurican
10:34 AM GMT on December 07, 2010
Morning all. Just checked my thermometer outside got a reading of 56 degrees F at around 5:20 a.m. It actually feels a little warmer out there than it did when I originally checked around 4 a.m.....

At any rate, it's pretty chilly for Nassau on 7 December...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
493. GTcooliebai
9:44 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting unf97:


I am in Northeast Florida GTcooliebai. I am not sure where you are located, but if you are referring to the possibility of seeing snow in the Deep South with these arctic intrusions, yes, there are occasions where wintry precip can occur. Whenever we have a set up like currently where we have a extremely deep upper level trough carved out over the Eastern CONUS, there are occasions when disturbances or shortwaves move rapidly down the north or northwesterly jet flow and rotate through the base of these upper troughs. These shortwaves can bring moisture, at least through the mid levels of the atmosphere. Most often, arctic air masses like what we currently have are too dry for precipitation to reach the surface. However, there can be times where these shortwaves can be sufficient enough with deeper moisture let's say below the 700 mb level to generate precipitation at the surface. And with such a cold airmass in place with these intrusions, any moisture riding over it can generate the wintry precip.

Interesting enough, one such shortwave is being currently shown by some of the reliable model guidance runs to drop down from the intermountain west beginning Tuesday and reach the Gulf Coast late Tuesday into Wednesday. The BIG QUESTION of course is will it be enough to generate moisture in the Deep South. I say it likely will not happen, but it is something to keep an eye on anyway.

Hope I wasn't too technical in explaining this to you LOL..

LOL that's alright I like technical information Thank You.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
492. ShenValleyFlyFish
9:16 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting Minnemike:
two idiots walk into a blog...
no punchline.
One says to the other: "This looks and smells just like the last place we were in."
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
491. caneswatch
9:16 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting Grothar:



He doesn't like wearing hats when his picture is being taken. But thanks for the advice.


Forget the hat, hook the dog up with some fur!
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
490. caneswatch
9:16 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:
This has the looks as the Coldest December since 1989 here is FL. Looked at the Euro and GFS and these models keep plunging Artic air into FL every week. Like I said we really need significant rain because all these freezes could cause very serious FIRE danger once temps warm back up and all the vegatation is dead.


Yep, supposed to drop into the 20s here in South Florida tonight. One more thing Jeff, didn't you say FSU was gonna win? LOL
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
489. GeoffreyWPB
9:14 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I guess that is true. Not to mention the manners of not wearing a hat while indoors. Still, why the long face? ;-)


If you were forced to eat gernuckenflucken and vennskapkake, you would have a long face too.

BTW...New Blog
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11424
488. Some1Has2BtheRookie
8:59 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting Grothar:



He doesn't like wearing hats when his picture is being taken. But thanks for the advice.


I guess that is true. Not to mention the manners of not wearing a hat while indoors. Still, why the long face? ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4758
487. reedzone
8:54 PM GMT on December 06, 2010

Accuweather is putting more confidence in NO snow for the big cities this weekend, compared to yesterdays model runs. I'm hoping they will shift the snow back towards the east.

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
486. reedzone
8:48 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


LOL! If we can get the Southern Branch going then yes things will get interesting. There is hope however that the southern branch could really get going come the middle to end of the month.


Sometimes I hate the EURO.. Maybe the models will cha cha back to bringing a coastal snowstorm for Long Island ;)
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
485. Jeff9641
8:46 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
The EURO did it again! Dang, I was really hoping yesterdays GFS runs would come true for my friends up north who like snow... Guess it's rain along the coast, snow in the interior Northeast, maybe next time.


LOL! If we can get the Southern Branch going then yes things will get interesting. There is hope however that the southern branch could really get going come the middle to end of the month.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
484. Patrap
8:44 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
GOM IR Loop





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
483. Grothar
8:44 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You better get something to keep those ears warm. That is a lot of exposure there! Looks like that nose could use a nose mitten as well.



He doesn't like wearing hats when his picture is being taken. But thanks for the advice.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26848
482. Grothar
8:42 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting Seastep:


Yeah, still debating whether to bring the orchids in. Way too many!


Bring them in if you can, or at least cover them. I made a big mistake last year. (P.S. You know how many time I heard "I told you so")

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26848
481. reedzone
8:41 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
The EURO did it again! Dang, I was really hoping yesterdays GFS runs would come true for my friends up north who like snow... Guess it's rain along the coast, snow in the interior Northeast, maybe next time.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
480. Jeff9641
8:40 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting Seastep:


It is different IMO. Look at the ENSO graph above.

I'd agree during a warm PDO cycle (1976/77-now???), but it is turning cold, so should look like more like, as mentioned, the pre-1976 ENSO pattern.

We'll see. The next 10-20 years will be interesting as we can then see a warm vs. cold PDO cycle in the sat temp record. Will be very good data.


It just seems as the wx patterns over the last 10 years have been becoming very erratic and hard to pin down an overall forecast due to this uncertainty. I have a strong feeling that we may have a strong El-Nino in our future as no one really guessed this La-Nina would be this strong and goes to show you just how it is very hard to forecast any potential pattern.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
479. Seastep
8:39 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting Grothar:
I'm getting the whole family ready for our cold snap.



Yeah, still debating whether to bring the orchids in. Way too many!
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
478. Some1Has2BtheRookie
8:39 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting Grothar:
I'm getting the whole family ready for our cold snap.



You better get something to keep those ears warm. That is a lot of exposure there! Looks like that nose could use a nose mitten as well.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4758
477. RitaEvac
8:37 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Surprise nobody has mention the pin hole eye in the SW Gulf off the Mexican coast, nice mid level circulation.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
476. Seastep
8:37 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


I think it's a safe bet to say you maybe wrong about that as in years past a moderate to strong La-Nina has been followed up by a moderate to strong El-Nino. 1996/1997 moderate La Nina to strong El-Nino in 1997/1998, 2008/2009 moderate La-Nina to moderate El-Nino in 2009/2010. 2000/2001 moderate La Nina to moderate El-Nino 2002/2003. Bottomline is this we could be heading into what could be a powerful El-nino next Winter.


It is different IMO. Look at the ENSO graph above.

I'd agree during a warm PDO cycle (1976/77-now???), but it is turning cold, so should look like more like, as mentioned, the pre-1976 ENSO pattern vs. the post 1976 pattern.

We'll see. The next 10-20 years will be interesting as we can then see a warm vs. cold PDO cycle in the sat temp record. Will be very good data.

Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
475. Jeff9641
8:35 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
La Nina is expected to end come March then continue to warm to slightly above nuetral then warming to moderate come next December. Makes you wonder what will happen next hurricane season as there may only be 12 to 14 storms but with many making landfall.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
474. Grothar
8:34 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
I'm getting the whole family ready for our cold snap.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26848
473. eddye
8:32 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
jeff 9641 accuweather show a low of 41 for orlando next weekend
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
472. Jeff9641
8:32 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting Seastep:
We have been in a warm PDO cycle since 1976/77. The last time there was such a strong La Nina was 1975.

Get used to it as the PDO goes cold.

Strong El Nino's like 1998 should not reappear for about another 30 years, while strong La Nina's should occur more often.

1998 was the peak and, imo, the next peak will not return for at least 20-30 years.

ENSO should be looking like pre-1976 for quite a while. IMO, this is a conundrum that requires "urgency" to save some reputations. I believe most alarmists knew (consciously or subconsciously) that they had to get action (that actually reduced CO2) to be able to claim "saving the planet" by about now. Time seems to have run out.



I think it's a safe bet to say you maybe wrong about that as in years past a moderate to strong La-Nina has been followed up by a moderate to strong El-Nino. 1996/1997 moderate La Nina to strong El-Nino in 1997/1998, 2008/2009 moderate La-Nina to moderate El-Nino in 2009/2010. 2000/2001 moderate La Nina to moderate El-Nino 2002/2003. Bottomline is this we could be heading into what could be a powerful El-nino next Winter.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
471. SuperYooper
8:27 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
11 inches in 24hrs in Munising, approx. 40 minute drive east from Marquette. Well over two feet of snow since Wednesday last week. Cancelled schools in the area, which is a rare event.

Let the snow begin!
Member Since: August 18, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 1603
470. Patrap
8:24 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1123 am CST Monday Dec 6 2010


Previous discussion... /issued 334 am CST Monday Dec 6 2010/


Short term...
some high thin cirrus moving over area having minimal affects on
temperatures this morning. Latest surface analysis indicates
freeze line from Poplarville to just north of Baton Rouge with
temperatures just getting to 32 degrees at 3 am. Lighter winds in
the lower part of the column this evening along with clear skies
should allow for maximum radiational cooling tonight. Freeze line
likely to already be down the North Shore of Lake Pontchartrain by
midnight and settle to near the Louisiana coast by 5 am Tuesday.
Will upgrade to freeze and hard freeze warnings with this package
issuance. Model guidance temperatures appear reasonable and went
pretty close with only minor changes from previous forecast
packages. Models are in very good agreement in bringing vigorous
short-wave out of northern branch across Louisiana Tuesday night.
This will likely keep min temperatures a few degrees warmer than
tonight.

A very brief and inconsequential passing of light flurries may occur across southern Mississippi counties with the passage of this fast moving feature...but not enough to warrant mention in forecast products...or to elicit any sort of actions from local officials.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
469. Seastep
8:24 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
We have been in a warm PDO cycle since 1976/77. The last time there was such a strong La Nina was 1975.

Get used to it as the PDO goes cold.

Strong El Nino's like 1998 should not reappear for about another 30 years, while strong La Nina's should occur more often.

1998 was the peak and, imo, the next peak will not return for at least 20-30 years.

ENSO should be looking like pre-1976 for quite a while. IMO, this is a conundrum that requires "urgency" to save some reputations. I believe most alarmists knew (consciously or subconsciously) that they had to get action (that actually reduced CO2) to be able to claim "saving the planet" by about now. Time seems to have run out.

Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
468. Jeff9641
8:21 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting eddye:
jeff 9641 high of 53 for next weekend when i go


GFS is showing highs in the 70's with rain right now but that is a long way out and could change.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_312.shtml
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
467. eddye
8:13 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
jeff 9641 high of 53 for next weekend when i go
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
466. Jeff9641
8:01 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Forecast next Monday in orlando 20 to 30mph NNW winds with highs of 53 and lows in the mid 30's. Yikes!!!! 20mph winds with temps in the low to mid 30's is brutal for us Floridians as next week could be colder than this week depending if this next system bombs out over New England as the models are saying it will.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
465. Jeff9641
7:56 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
I have a feeling that January is going to be a overall hot month for FL as one would think that this pattern will reverse with a strong to moderate La-Nina in place.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
464. Jeff9641
7:53 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
This has the looks as the Coldest December since 1989 here is FL. Looked at the Euro and GFS and these models keep plunging Artic air into FL every week. Like I said we really need significant rain because all these freezes could cause very serious FIRE danger once temps warm back up and all the vegatation is dead.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
463. dearmas
7:53 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
I want my nice hot Florida days back. This cold weather really sucks :( I'm in Wesley Chapel FL
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 121
462. CyclonicVoyage
7:46 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Not sure about other area's but, I am quite sure some records are going to be obliterated tonight and tomorrow in SEFL.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
461. scott39
7:36 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
La-Nina hasnt been herself all year! CV TCs recurving and Hard freezes here in the Deep South. Looks like an identity Crisis!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6886
460. Some1Has2BtheRookie
7:35 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:

Sounds good, but for two things:

1) Ten more years of inactivity waiting to "prove" warming or man's part in it is ten years too long;

2) Who would referee the decision? None of the few remaining anti-science scientists still clinging to the denier POV in 2020 would incriminate themselves, so they'd never admit they were wrong...and the argument often heard from skeptics is that if there is even a single scientist who questions AGW among the many thousands of others who believe the theory is credible, the entire theory is discardable. To such folks, the overwhelming and growing evidence staring them in the face isn't even close to enough; as such, it's highly unlikely they'll ever change their stance...so the issue can never be resolved.

Back to the drawing board, I guess... ;-)


Sorry for the double post. Once again I prove my name.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4758
459. Some1Has2BtheRookie
7:35 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:

Sounds good, but for two things:

1) Ten more years of inactivity waiting to "prove" warming or man's part in it is ten years too long;

2) Who would referee the decision? None of the few remaining anti-science scientists still clinging to the denier POV in 2020 would incriminate themselves, so they'd never admit they were wrong...and the argument often heard from skeptics is that if there is even a single scientist who questions AGW among the many thousands of others who believe the theory is credible, the entire theory is discardable. To such folks, the overwhelming and growing evidence staring them in the face isn't even close to enough; as such, it's highly unlikely they'll ever change their stance...so the issue can never be resolved.

Back to the drawing board, I guess... ;-)


I couldn't agree with you more Neapolitan. I was just hoping to get a show of hands now on who actually believes in their own science. Personally, I would think that the scientists that believe mankind actually plays a part in GW would be the most willing to stand by their science.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4758
458. CyclonicVoyage
7:33 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Not your typical day in SEFL, brrrr.

Tonight

Clear

Lo 34 °F


Tuesday

Sunny

Hi 58 °F
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
457. unf97
7:30 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Do you see any chances of snow with these arctic air intrusions?


I am in Northeast Florida GTcooliebai. I am not sure where you are located, but if you are referring to the possibility of seeing snow in the Deep South with these arctic intrusions, yes, there are occasions where wintry precip can occur. Whenever we have a set up like currently where we have a extremely deep upper level trough carved out over the Eastern CONUS, there are occasions when disturbances or shortwaves move rapidly down the north or northwesterly jet flow and rotate through the base of these upper troughs. These shortwaves can bring moisture, at least through the mid levels of the atmosphere. Most often, arctic air masses like what we currently have are too dry for precipitation to reach the surface. However, there can be times where these shortwaves can be sufficient enough with deeper moisture let's say below the 700 mb level to generate precipitation at the surface. And with such a cold airmass in place with these intrusions, any moisture riding over it can generate the wintry precip.

Interesting enough, one such shortwave is being currently shown by some of the reliable model guidance runs to drop down from the intermountain west beginning Tuesday and reach the Gulf Coast late Tuesday into Wednesday. The BIG QUESTION of course is will it be enough to generate moisture in the Deep South. I say it likely will not happen, but it is something to keep an eye on anyway.

Hope I wasn't too technical in explaining this to you LOL..
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
456. scott39
7:26 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
47 right now in Lower Al.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6886
455. scott39
7:24 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Its Freakin COLD!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6886
454. ColdInFL
7:24 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Another global warming article

Link
Member Since: September 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
453. Neapolitan
7:19 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Hello, everyone.

"Exxon funded contrarians should be sleeping in a jail cell. For ecocide and mass murder."

This gives me an idea This should work for all of the believers and non believers of GW. I believe that at the end of the next 10 years we should have a pretty good picture if mankind is contributing to GW or not. Why not do the following at that time - Should mankind actually be adding to GW then the "scientists", and those that funded them, that denied mankind's contribution to GW will spend the rest of their lives in prison for crimes against mankind, if it proves true that mankind did contribute to GW. The same would hold true for the "scientists", and those that funded them, that believed mankind contributed to GW and this is indeed false, then these "scientists" and those that funded them, would spend the rest of their lives in prison fro crimes against mankind. - I think it may prove to be an excellent plan to determine now who actually believes in their own science. - Which side of the debate would be willing to risk life imprisonment in their belief of their science?
What do you think? Does this sound like a plan and how could we get the "scientists", and those that funded them, go along with it??

Sounds good, but for two things:

1) Ten more years of inactivity waiting to "prove" warming or man's part in it is ten years too long;

2) Who would referee the decision? None of the few remaining anti-science scientists still clinging to the denier POV in 2020 would incriminate themselves, so they'd never admit they were wrong...and the argument often heard from skeptics is that if there is even a single scientist who questions AGW among the many thousands of others who believe the theory is credible, the entire theory is discardable. To such folks, the overwhelming and growing evidence staring them in the face isn't even close to enough; as such, it's highly unlikely they'll ever change their stance...so the issue can never be resolved.

Back to the drawing board, I guess... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13603
452. GTcooliebai
7:03 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting unf97:
Good day WU bloggers!

I hope everyone is doing O.K. A very cold, breezy day in NE FL! The low temp recorded at my home was 27.4 degrees earlier today. Current temp 46.7 degrees at 1:00 p.m.

Expecting lows tonight in the low 20s here at my North Jax location, with possible readings of 18-20 degrees in areas of inland SE GA. Looks like hard freezes up through Thursday morning, then a brief moderation of temperatures ahead of the next arctic front the later part of the week into the weekend with some rain moving in the area Saturday into Sunday. Then, the next blast of arctic air will be moving back in by the start of next week. Model guidance is indicating this next arctic air intrusion next week will be just as cold, if not colder, than this current airmass over the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS.

An interesting La Nina this year for sure. We are seeing the Omega blocking pattern over Greenland which is for now anchored in place and therefore, at least for most of December, we will see a couple of more of these motherload surges of polar air funneling southbound through the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS.

Chances are that the shift in the pattern will occur by the start of January 2011 and hopefully we will be seeing milder conditions with maybe slightly warmer than average temps back in Florida and the Deep South, along with continued dry conditions, as we see with typical La Nina seasons in this region.

These arctic intrusions are very unique indeed when they occur in these parts, and it is likely we will see some record minimums to occur this week, and also next week with the next blast of cold air in several areas.

Do you see any chances of snow with these arctic air intrusions?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
451. Some1Has2BtheRookie
6:56 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting aspectre:
meh Just lock everybody up. Cuts down on their carbon foot print.


LOL - so this would be an indication that you believe mankind plays a part in GW? ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4758
450. aspectre
6:53 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
meh Just lock everybody up. Cuts down on their carbon footprint.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
449. Some1Has2BtheRookie
6:43 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting HurricaneKatrina:


Hello, everyone.

"Exxon funded contrarians should be sleeping in a jail cell. For ecocide and mass murder."

This gives me an idea This should work for all of the believers and non believers of GW. I believe that at the end of the next 10 years we should have a pretty good picture if mankind is contributing to GW or not. Why not do the following at that time - Should mankind actually be adding to GW then the "scientists", and those that funded them, that denied mankind's contribution to GW will spend the rest of their lives in prison for crimes against mankind, if it proves true that mankind did contribute to GW. The same would hold true for the "scientists", and those that funded them, that believed mankind contributed to GW and this is indeed false, then these "scientists" and those that funded them, would spend the rest of their lives in prison fro crimes against mankind. - I think it may prove to be an excellent plan to determine now who actually believes in their own science. - Which side of the debate would be willing to risk life imprisonment in their belief of their science?
What do you think? Does this sound like a plan and how could we get the "scientists", and those that funded them, go along with it??
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4758
448. ILwthrfan
6:32 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Anyone with some info on the potential midwestern blizzard this weekend. Heard the ECMWF and GFS are showing a horrific storm? "
00Z ECMWF THAN TAKES ANOTHER DIGGING SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD THRU CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASES IT INTO THE OH VALLEY CLOSED LOW LATE DAY 7 AND DAY 8 CREATING A HYPER STORM WITH CONCURRENCE BY DGEX. THIS EXTREME SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE GREAT STORM OF 25-26 NOV 1950. WHAT IS DISCONCERTING IS THAT CPC D+8 TO D+11 ANALOGS HAVE INDICATED A SYNOPTIC PATTERN MATCHING THOSE DATES FOR WEEKS INCLUDING TODAYS. THAT WAS ALSO A LA NINA YEAR WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE NAO."
Link
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1535
447. tornadodude
6:26 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Quoting SQUAWK:
Yup, time to break out the popcorn.


LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
446. unf97
6:05 PM GMT on December 06, 2010
Good day WU bloggers!

I hope everyone is doing O.K. A very cold, breezy day in NE FL! The low temp recorded at my home was 27.4 degrees earlier today. Current temp 46.7 degrees at 1:00 p.m.

Expecting lows tonight in the low 20s here at my North Jax location, with possible readings of 18-20 degrees in areas of inland SE GA. Looks like hard freezes up through Thursday morning, then a brief moderation of temperatures ahead of the next arctic front the later part of the week into the weekend with some rain moving in the area Saturday into Sunday. Then, the next blast of arctic air will be moving back in by the start of next week. Model guidance is indicating this next arctic air intrusion next week will be just as cold, if not colder, than this current airmass over the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS.

An interesting La Nina this year for sure. We are seeing the Omega blocking pattern over Greenland which is for now anchored in place and therefore, at least for most of December, we will see a couple of more of these motherload surges of polar air funneling southbound through the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS.

Chances are that the shift in the pattern will occur by the start of January 2011 and hopefully we will be seeing milder conditions with maybe slightly warmer than average temps back in Florida and the Deep South, along with continued dry conditions, as we see with typical La Nina seasons in this region.

These arctic intrusions are very unique indeed when they occur in these parts, and it is likely we will see some record minimums to occur this week, and also next week with the next blast of cold air in several areas.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.