Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Massive flooding in Australia cuts off city of 75,000
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:52 PM GMT on January 03, 2011 +2
The arrival of the new year has brought continued misery to northeast Australia, where unprecedented flooding continues in the wake of weeks of torrential rains. The floods have killed at least ten people and covered an area the size of France and Germany combined, cutting off the coastal city of Rockhampton. Today, the military was forced to fly in food, water, and other supplies into Rockhampton, a city of 75,000, due to the lack of unflooded roads into the city. The local airport, all access roads, and all rail lines into the city are closed. The flooding has affected at least 21 other towns, and 200,000 people in northeast Australia. Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard stated last week, "Some communities are seeing flood waters higher than they've seen in decades, and for some communities flood waters have never reached these levels before [in] the time that we have been recording floods." According to the National Climatic Data Center, springtime in Australia (September - November) had precipitation 125% of normal--the wettest spring in the country since records began 111 years ago. Some sections of coastal Queensland received over 4 feet (1200 mm) of rain from September through November. Rainfall in Queensland and all of eastern Australia in December was the greatest on record, and the year 2010 was the rainiest year on record for Queensland. The heavy rains are due, in part, to the moderate to strong La Niña event that has been in place since July. The relatively warm waters that accumulate off the northeast coast of Australia during a La Niña typically cause heavy rains over Queensland.


Figure 1. Comparison of river conditions in Queensland from today to December 30, 2010. While some rivers have fallen below major flood stage, the Fitzroy River at Rockhampton is rising, and may peak at levels not seen since 1918 on Wednesday. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 2. Rainfall in Queensland, Australia for December, 2010. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

The rains over Queensland continued yesterday and today, with many of the flooded regions receiving 1/2 - 1 inch (about 12 - 25 mm) of rain. Total rainfall amounts in the flood region over the past month are generally in the 16 - 24 inch range (400 - 600 mm). Predicted rainfall amounts for the next two days in the flooded region are less than 1/2 inch (12 mm), which should allow for river levels to peak by Tuesday or Wednesday, then slowly fall. However, heavy rains are predicted to affect the area again by Thursday, and it may be several weeks before the summer rains ease enough to allow all of Queensland's rivers to retreat below flood stage. Damage to infrastructure in Australia has been estimated at over $1 billion by the government, and economists have estimated the Australian economy will suffer an additional $6 billion in damage over the coming months due to reduced exports, according to insurance company AIR Worldwide. Queensland is Australia's top coal-producing state, and coal mining and delivery operations are being severely hampered by the flooding. Damage to agriculture is currently estimated at $400 million, and is expected to rise.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Flood
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752. Neapolitan 4:37 PM GMT on January 05, 2011    
Quoting JFLORIDA:



from Plymouth State imagery...
For a starting point, select ID: LZK, standard base reflectivity, 2011 /
Jan / 1 / 5Z / 30 min, 21 frame JAVA, and 50% zoom factor...  The 1st odd "blow-up"
occurs around 0421Z, then repeats several times after up thru near 07Z /
1 AM CST. [thanks DocNDswamp]


That anomalous plume looks to be centered just southwest of Beebe, which sits inside White County north of the Lonoke County line. It sure would be a coincidence were a mass bird killing to occur in the same spot and at the same time as some as-yet-unexplained phenomenon causing such an odd radar signature, and yet there be no correlation whatsoever. Then again, stranger things have happened...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11142
754. Minnemike 4:49 PM GMT on January 05, 2011    
Quoting NavarreMark:
The reason dead birds are falling from the sky is because only living birds can fly.
that really should not have made me laugh so hard...
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1253
755. RitaEvac 4:49 PM GMT on January 05, 2011    
I bet everybody the clueless public and media don't even know that there was a radar plume near where those birds died. You'd think this would be all over the news
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8874
757. calusakat 4:51 PM GMT on January 05, 2011    
Quoting Neapolitan:

Do you have any proof of this "altering and tweaking"? Now before you answer, consider this: so-called "Climategate" was a manufactured controversy that's been completely debunked; no climate scientists were found to be guilty of anything more than bad judgement where a few intra-personal matters were concerned; no data manipulation was found, and the science itself is completely intact. So with that in mind, I ask again: Do you have any proof of this "altering and tweaking"?



Don't start with those manufactured misdirections again, please.

The scientists were only absolved of wrongdoing. The authorities made it clear that there was no judgment as to whether or not they altered the data as they freely admitted in the e-mails. In other words, altering the data was not wrong.

NASA and NOAA have also discussed the changing of the data using various excuses, including 'smoothing the data'. They have also admitted to filling in data where data has been determined to be missing.

There is no proof that the data is complete because, as was discussed at length in those same e-mails, they considered the programs and underlying data to be proprietary.

Do you really think that the folks who frequent this blog are so limited in their IQ's that they would so easily forget such things.

Thank God that someone had the character to leak those e-mails so that we could see for ourselves just how dishonest they really are when it comes to AGW.


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758. PakaSurvivor 4:51 PM GMT on January 05, 2011    
Dr. Masters has opened a new blog
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759. RipplinH2O 4:51 PM GMT on January 05, 2011    
Quoting NavarreMark:
The reason dead birds are falling from the sky is because only living birds can fly.
LOL...that and McDonalds is having a sale on "chicken" McNuggets (footnote: Jay Leno)
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 491
760. jeffs713 5:20 PM GMT on January 05, 2011    
Quoting calusakat:



Don't start with those manufactured misdirections again, please.

The scientists were only absolved of wrongdoing. The authorities made it clear that there was no judgment as to whether or not they altered the data as they freely admitted in the e-mails. In other words, altering the data was not wrong.

NASA and NOAA have also discussed the changing of the data using various excuses, including 'smoothing the data'. They have also admitted to filling in data where data has been determined to be missing.

There is no proof that the data is complete because, as was discussed at length in those same e-mails, they considered the programs and underlying data to be proprietary.

Do you really think that the folks who frequent this blog are so limited in their IQ's that they would so easily forget such things.

Thank God that someone had the character to leak those e-mails so that we could see for ourselves just how dishonest they really are when it comes to AGW.



Smoothing data is a widely accepted scientific and statistical practice to reduce the impact of outliers that are not representative of the trend.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722
761. sarahjola 5:39 PM GMT on January 05, 2011    
Quoting JFLORIDA:



from Plymouth State imagery...
For a starting point, select ID: LZK, standard base reflectivity, 2011 /
Jan / 1 / 5Z / 30 min, 21 frame JAVA, and 50% zoom factor...  The 1st odd "blow-up"
occurs around 0421Z, then repeats several times after up thru near 07Z /
1 AM CST. [thanks DocNDswamp]

that is interesting
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291
762. ScottLincoln 6:32 PM GMT on January 05, 2011    
Quoting jeffs713:


Exactly. Also, when you add in the issue of the ongoing seismic anomaly in the area (small earthquakes nearby), things get really muddled. Maybe a gas release? Also, does anyone know if there is any oil/gas drilling going on in the area?


That was actually one of the first things I tried to look into while plotting the radar data over geographic data in GR2Analyst. So far it seems like 3 of the plumes originated in the open area between Windwood Drive and Arkansas State University's South Campus. The other one was slightly NW of the other 3, near the business area at the expressway exit.

Guy, AR, where the ongoing earthquake swarm has been located, is a bit to the NW of Beebe. Maybe 50-100 miles. I would imagine that toxic gases released in a populated area like this would have caused more problems than just killing one species of bird...
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1482
763. ScottLincoln 6:49 PM GMT on January 05, 2011    
Quoting Neapolitan:

That anomalous plume looks to be centered just southwest of Beebe, which sits inside White County north of the Lonoke County line. It sure would be a coincidence were a mass bird killing to occur in the same spot and at the same time as some as-yet-unexplained phenomenon causing such an odd radar signature, and yet there be no correlation whatsoever. Then again, stranger things have happened...


Plume#1 around 0426z when it reaches 47dbz.

One scan later (04430z), plume#1's leading edge has moved to the southeast with a estimated 50kt speed.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1482

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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