Record snows hit New England; Brazilian floods kill 350; Brisbane underwater

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:16 PM GMT on January 13, 2011

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The Northeast U.S. is digging out today from the winter's third major snowstorm, and the nation's South continues to deal with travel disruptions caused by the nasty coasting of ice, snow and sleet the storm left behind early this week. Yesterday's Nor'easter has exited into Canada, and the storm is over for the U.S. It was a pretty average Nor'easter as far as intensity goes--the storm's central pressure bottomed out at 982 mb, and just the Massachusetts coast was subject to high winds that merited blizzard warnings. The storm did generate one hurricane-force wind gust--Provincetown airport on the tip of Cape Cod had sustained winds at 43 mph, gusting to 79 mph, at 6:35am EST yesterday, and a personal weather station at Humarock Beach in Scituate, southeast of Boston, recorded a wind gust of 64 mph at 5:51am EST yesterday.


Figure 1. A bit of work today needed before one can step out of the door in Southborough, Massachusetts! Image credit: wunderphotographer Megmdp.

But what was remarkable about the January Nor'easter of 2011 were its snow amounts. This rather ordinary-strength Nor'easter managed to assemble the perfect mix of conditions needed to transport moisture to a region of the storm highly favorable for heavy snow formation. Many heavy snow bands with snowfall rates up to 3 inches per hour formed over New England, with some of these bands intense enough to generate lightning and thunder. Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Vermont all came within an inch of setting all-time state 24-hour snowfall records yesterday. North Haven, Connecticut received 29.5", falling just short of the 30.2" 24-hour snowfall record for the state, set at Fairfield in February 2006. Savoy, Massachusetts received 34.5", falling just short of that state's all-time 24-hour snowfall record, the 36" recorded at Milton in February 1997. Wilmington, Vermont got 36" in yesterday's storm, just missing the state record of 37", set at Peru in March 1984. The capital of Connecticut, Hartford, had its greatest snowstorm in history yesterday, with 24". The old record was 23.5", set in a February 1899 storm.

Some selected storm total snowfall amounts, taken from the latest NOAA storm summary:

New York City, NY 9.1"
Albany, NY 13.2"
Worcester, MA 21.1"
Boston, MA 14.6"
Augusta, ME 14.5"
Portland, ME 9.2"
Concord, NH 22"
Somerset, PA 15"
Philadelphia, PA 5.2"
Providence, RI 9.5"
Brattleboro, VT 19"
Elkin, WV 10"
Danbury, CT 17.9"
Wilmington, DE 4.3"

According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, in his latest blog post titled, "Snowstorms in the South: A Historical Perspective", the 8.9" that fell on Huntsville, Alabama from this week's storm was that city's third heaviest snow on record. The post has a nice summary of the remarkable heavy snow storms that have hit the South in the past.


Figure 2. Flooding at São José do Vale do Rio Preto in Brazil photographed on Thursday, January 13, 2011.

Brazilian floods, landslides kill at least 350
The globe's parade of massive flooding disasters in recent months continued yesterday in Brazil, where heavy rains of up to 10 inches in 24 hours inundated the region about 60 miles north of Rio de Janeiro. At least 350 are dead and 50 people missing, and the death toll is expected to go much higher once rescuers reach remote villages that have been cut off from communications. Brazil suffers hundreds of deaths each year due to flooding and mudslides, but the past 12 months have been particularly devastating. Flooding and landslides near Rio in April last year killed 246 people and did about $13 billion in damage, and at least 85 people perished last January during a similar event.


Figure 3. A woman trapped on the roof of her car awaits rescue during the Toowoomba flash flood on Monday. Image credit: Wikipedia.

New floods ravage Australia's 3rd largest city
Flood waters swept today into Brisbane, Australia's 3rd largest city, inundating 14,400 homes and businesses, partially submerging another 17,200, and cutting power to 118,000, as the Brisbane River peaked at its highest level since 1974. Queensland Premier Anna Bligh, who has called the recent floods in Queensland the greatest natural disaster in their history, said, "What I'm seeing looks more like a war zone in some places. All I could see was their rooftops...underneath every single one of those rooftops is a horror story. We are facing a reconstruction effort of post-war proportions." Much of Brisbane's infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed, including 55,000 miles of roads. The Port of Brisbane, one of Australia's busiest, has been closed because of debris, and the city's largest sports stadium is under several feet of water.

The search for bodies continues in Toowoomba, about 60 miles west of Brisbane, where freak rains of 6 inches in just 30 minutes triggered a flash flood that killed 12 and left 61 missing on Monday. The flood waters from the Toowoomba disaster poured into the Brisbane River, contributing to its rampage through Brisbane yesterday. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) reported that only scattered light rains less than 1/3" fell in the Brisbane area over the past 24 hours, and no further significant rains are forecast in the Brisbane area until Tuesday next week, so the worst of the flooding is now over for Queensland. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the December - January floods in Queenland are the most significant flooding event in Australia since at least 1974. In 2010, Australia had its wettest spring (September - November) since records began 111 years ago, with some sections of coastal Queensland receiving over 4 feet (1200 mm) of rain. Rainfall in Queensland and all of eastern Australia in December was the greatest on record, and the year 2010 was the rainiest year on record for Queensland. Queensland typically has its rainiest years when La Niña events occur, due to the much warmer than average ocean temperatures that occur along the coast. The BOM notes, "Previous strong La Niña events, such as those of 1974 and 1955, have also been associated with widespread and severe flooding in eastern Australia. Sea surface temperatures off the Queensland coast in recent months have also been at or near record levels." The BOM's annual summary also reported, "Sea surface temperatures in the Australian region during 2010 were the warmest value on record for the Australian region. Individual high monthly sea surface temperature records were also set during 2010 in March, April, June, September, October, November and December. Along with favourable hemispheric circulation associated with the 2010 La Niña, very warm sea surface temperatures contributed to the record rainfall and very high humidity across eastern Australia during winter and spring." Beginning in December, the Queensland floods have killed at least 22, and damage estimates are now as high as $20 billion. Queensland has an area the size of Germany and France combined.

2010 tied for warmest year in Earth's history
Earth's warmest year in history occurred in 2010, NASA reported yesterday. The globe's temperature beat the previous record set in 2005 by just .01°C, so we should consider 2010 and 2005 tied for the warmest year on record. Reliable global temperature records go back to 1880. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also announced yesterday that 2010 was tied with 2005 as the warmest year on record, with temperatures during 2010 1.12°F (0.62°C) above the 20th century average. I'll have a full blog post on the subject Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

storm car burried (slimfast)
on a lowell mass street 1/12/11 taken off hampshire street lowell mass our streets are buried in snow we have 24-36" of snow we had unsafe intersecting roads every where un safe driving also large buildings with flat roofs are unsafe many colapsed buildings
storm car burried
Brilliance..2 (suzi46)
a brilliant mid-Winter's day..blue skies and sunshine on the clear ice of the brooks creating wonderful images..
Brilliance..2
How Many Cars? (stoneygirl)
Can you tell how many cars are under all that? We had a whopping 2 plus FEET of snow today and the snow drifts were upwards of 3 and 4 feet. Gotta love winter.
How Many Cars?

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677. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
ike surfmom, cat5 hi ya'll

yes we wait for the sun here in florida...why do you think we live here


Morning aquak. Beautiful sunshine this morning. Looks like a nice weekend for JAX,FL, with highs in the upper 50's Saturday and lower 60's Sunday.
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ike surfmom, cat5 hi ya'll

yes we wait for the sun here in florida...why do you think we live here
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upper tampa bay water temps on the way up, 56 near my favorite winter fishin hole and rising over the next few days. Time for some poor mans lobster (sheepshead) fishing. Enjoy the warm up fellow Floridians.
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674. IKE
Looks like the record low for this date in Crestview was...23 °F (1982).

Easily broken with this mornings low of 16 at their airport.
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673. IKE
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yep...there you go. But as Surfmom says, closer to spring. And I already am noticing it a bit lighter now in the evening!


I'm noticing that too. My sunset now is 5:04 pm CST. Was 4:42 pm CST.

Also..I can tell the sun angle is headed back north now based on where the sun comes up over the eastern horizon.
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671. IKE
Quoting cat5hurricane:

For Florida, that is cold. Man. I guess that is understandable since your deviation from what you folks see on an average basis temperature-wise is much greater than most of the country right now. It may be a cold winter for most, but for Florida, a VERY cold winter thus far.


According to my town's WU page....normal high and low...

Normal (KCEW) 59 °F 33 °F
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670. IKE
Quoting surfmom:
ahhhh, this makes my day : )

SWFL Today is forecasted to be Much Warmer than yesterday.

no thermal undies today -it will be nice to work the horses w/out 20 pounds of clothes on.

Aloha, IKE & AQUA - hang in each day is closer to spring : )


Morning surfmom. Sunshine now. High today near 50 here. Upper 50's tomorrow.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Didn't seem like nonsense to me. In fact, a very good post. Not every post that doesn't point to GW occurring has to be nonsense.

True. But ones that spout the illogic I pointed out are, indeed, nonsense.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13796
ahhhh, this makes my day : )

SWFL Today is forecasted to be Much Warmer than yesterday.

no thermal undies today -it will be nice to work the horses w/out 20 pounds of clothes on.

Aloha, IKE & AQUA - hang in each day is closer to spring : )
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it would be unusual during a la nina year but the Eddie might be a go at waimea bay next wk 21st
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665. IKE
Quoting cat5hurricane:

That's not too bad. Mine was really bad last year until I bought on the those electric heated blankets. Man, those things are great. Now I can keep the temp of the entire house down at night or if I'm lounging around watching TV. It's not the perfect solution of course, but it sure helps.


I have a heat pump. When it gets this cold at night my heater stays on continuously.

Considering how cold it's been the last month, I'm surprised it's not higher.

It only went up $42 from what it was last month.

My low this morning was 23.0. Yesterday morning it was 22.5.
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662. DEKRE
Quoting cat5hurricane:
654:

16 degrees in FL for the low! Wow. Well, Ike, looks like it'll moderate a bit for you guys pretty soon.


This is crazy - up here in Canada I have 23°F when it should be 6°F
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661. IKE
Quoting oceanminded:
Ike, looks like the lakes around you do a good job keeping you a little warmer, thats nice.


It does help. Sun-up in about 10 minutes.
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Ike, looks like the lakes around you do a good job keeping you a little warmer, thats nice.
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658. IKE
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
155 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2011

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 18 2011 - 12Z FRI JAN 21 2011


THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 ARE
BASED ON THE 00Z/14 ECMWF. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS
ROBUST SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE 12Z/13 ECENS MEAN AND THE 00Z/14
UKMET FROM COAST TO COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE GFS
AND GEM GLOBAL ARE OUT OF SYNC WITH THE STRONG EUROPEAN CENTRE
CLUSTER WITH THE HANDLING OF THE MAJOR SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE
NATION THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GFS NOT EVEN WELL
CORRELATED WITH THE 00Z/14 GEFS MEAN. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
VERIFYING STRONGLY ON AVERAGE THIS COLD SEASON WITH ITS SURFACE
PRESSURES...PARTICULARLY DAYS 6 AND 7. THE UPCOMING PATTERN WILL
BE HIGHLIGHTED BY SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...WITH LOW
THICKNESSES COINCIDING WITH HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES.


CISCO


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657. IKE
Quoting cat5hurricane:
654:

16 degrees in FL for the low! Wow. Well, Ike, looks like it'll moderate a bit for you guys pretty soon.


Yup...warmer weather on the way!

I'm surprised my electric bill wasn't higher. Got it in yesterday...$195.69.
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34 on my thermometer here in north tampa. left the plants outside last night and everything looks fine. I see 70's in the forecast and the strawberries are loving it.
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654. IKE
23.4 my morning low...so far.

PWS about 6 miles from me....

WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 3 sec ago
16.9 °F
Clear

Windchill: 17 °F
Humidity: 90%
Dew Point: 14 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 30.39 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 2.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft

............................................

Crestview,FL. airport....

Crestview, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 24 min 58 sec ago
16 °F
Clear

Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 14 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.47 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 3.20 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 210 ft



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Quoting aquak9:
650- Nea, our NWS said a low of 23º, but it's only 30º right now. Moderation would be nice. (Jax)

90º and sunshine would be nicer.

We were supposed to be 39 here, but my usually agreeable thermometer says we're 47. Let the warmup begin!

(And, yes, 90 sounds good right about now!)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13796
Quoting iceagecoming:
Well that was refreshing

Thanks for posting that, yet another piece of (mostly) nonsense from yet another TV weatherman who's not a climate scientist. He uses pretty much the same "logic" as many other "skeptics":

A) Though the planet is warming overall, it's cold in England, so the planet isn't really warming;

B) Because his fellow "skeptics" have succeeded in downplaying the effects of climate change, there's been no impetus to move away from a fossil-fuel paradigm, but...

C) ...since they haven't moved toward those alternate energy source, there's little available when needed--so what good is it? They should stick with fossil fuels, because they provide so much more energy than the alternatives!

Gotta love that, er, logic. ;-)

Of course, Hudson goes on elsewhere to claim that the minimal sun will bring about global cooling--in spite of the fact that the planet continues to warm. But that's a story for another time. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13796
650- Nea, our NWS said a low of 23º, but it's only 30º right now. Moderation would be nice. (Jax)

90º and sunshine would be nicer.
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To my surprise, there were just a few dozen record daily lows set or tied in the United States yesterday (surprise, as I was expecting to see far more of them) asccording to HAMweather. The coldest record was -22 in Edgemont, ND. There should be even fewer cold records this morning; temps across most of the nation have moderated, with large parts of the west and Midwest up to 15 and 25 degrees warmer this morning than they were yesterday at this time.

Here in Naples, the ten-day says every day will rise into the 70s, and every night will be 50 or above. That sounds good to me... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13796
Link

Coal takes the strain...again.

Paul Hudson | 16:44 UK time, Monday, 10 January 2011




On BBC Look North on friday I reported that during the recent intense cold weather, it's been our traditional coal and gas fired power stations that have been working flat out to keep our homes and businesses warm.

And for the third winter running, the intense cold has gone hand in hand with periods of little or no wind. This should come as no surprise since prolonged cold is invariably associated with areas of high pressure.

Peak demand also comes during summer heat waves - as we all turn on our air conditioning units - again usually associated with areas of high pressure, with little or no wind.

December 21st 2010 was one of the coldest days on record in Yorkshire. The bar chart below gives an idea of how much electricity was being generated by which type of power facility, when temperatures were at their lowest.


With much of the country experiencing very little wind, both onshore and offshore, wind turbines were largely inactive.

At the moment that is not a problem. Only 5% of electricity is currently generated by wind farms, and so other power stations can step in and ramp up output.

But in only 9 years time, the UK will legally have to generate around 30% of its electricity from renewable sources, of which 25% is expected to come from wind farms alone, as it is seen as a clean, carbon free energy source.

So what will happen then, when the wind doesn't blow?

If a similar meteorological situation occurred in 2020, then almost 25% of power would have to come from sources other than wind.

This means that there would have to be some power stations - using coal or gas, since nuclear power output can't be increased at short notice - that simply exist as a stand-by facility, in case the wind doesn't blow.

And that's a very expensive way of producing electricity.

And what happens if, as seems at least possible, the next 10-15 years sees an increase in the type of disrupted weather patterns that we have experienced recently, because of solar considerations?

Professor Mike Lockwood at Reading University thinks that the UK could indeed experience colder winters on average, compared with the last few decades because of the sun's low activity.

This would lead to a higher frequency of 'blocking' weather patterns leading to less frequent windy conditions than would normally be expected if one looks at climatological averages - suggesting we would have to continue to rely on coal and gas fired power generation well into the future - and possibly more than is currently envisaged.




Australian officials say Queensland is reeling from its worst natural disaster in history, after floods have caused billions of dollars worth of damage.

So why has there been so much rain along eastern board of Australia? BBC Meteorologist, Nina Ridge, says the persistent rainfall has been the result of a weather phenomenon called La Niña.

La Niña is a weather pattern that affects the Pacific Ocean region, and occurs when surface sea temperatures are cooler than normal in the eastern Pacific, and warmer than normal in the western Pacific.

Light shines through a building's window onto a flooded street as night falls
The flooded main street in Rockhampton's city centre

Normal conditions

Normally, cold water comes up from the deep sea and pools near the coast of South America.

Easterly trade winds drag the cold water from South America across the Pacific towards Australia. The cold water is gradually warmed by the sun as it reaches Australia.

Rain clouds build along the coast of Australia due to the warm moist air, while it tends to stay dry along the Pacific coast of South America.

La Niña

During La Niña, the cold water that pools near the coast of South America surges across the Pacific and there is a greater build up of warmer water along the eastern coast of Australia.

As a result, there is a greater contrast in sea surface temperatures between the east and west Pacific, and a greater contrast in air pressure.

The easterly trade winds become stronger due to this contrast, dragging warm, moist air along the Australian coastline, creating larger rain clouds and producing more rainfall.

An El Niño weather event is when warm water pushes towards the central Pacific, the cold water retreats and rain falls in the central Pacific area. Strong El Niño years can cause droughts along the eastern coast of Australia.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/news/newsid_9340000/9340513.stm


Well that was refreshing

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G'morn all!
Un-Florida like again..
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Quoting paratomic:
What they mean is that if a business diverts the price of polluting to everyone else this is what happens when you instead hold the business accountable by making it illegal:

1) Since the business is now paying for it by not polluting the toxin you will pay more for their product, but you will probably pay less for health insurance because there will be less people randomly dying as a result of this specific toxin.
2) And since these people aren't dying then jobs aren't lost and families aren't destroyed. Overall, you'll probably pay less since jobs and the economy aren't disrupted by these surprise deaths.

So don't focus on the cost of one single thing. This is a big interconnected dynamic world.

The trick is to quantify the pollutant or environmental destruction or whatever it's so that you can appropriately regulate business and make sure people aren't doing illegal things.

It's not wrong to stop crime. It's not wrong to stop someone from polluting. It's only wrong when people via a popular consensus feel it's wrong. We have to establish a national standard one way or another. I know that I do not want to see random deaths from industrial practices because business too often escape paying any of hte costs and hte burden instead is given to the public at large. Not only does this make it hard for the business to learn the necessary lessons (you have to get hurt to learn sometimes), but can we put a price on random deaths? Can you put a price on love? It's too easily exploited.

If I indirectly randomly kill a persons father by smoking too much near him, there's a good chance no one will notice, but if I killed directly, I'd be in the newspaper and prosecuted. Businesses get away with killing random people this way and it's ok up until we understand it and have the chance to stop it.

Yep, that is a good example of many.

Looking at climate change, an unaccounted for externality might be sea-level rise. Building sea walls to protect our cities will be expensive, and it is likely those costs will be passed on to tax payers. In a perfectly working market based economy those costs would be included in the cost of doing business. Of course those costs would be passed along to consumers, and consumers would adjust their consumption accordingly.

..or...maintaining a huge military presence in the middle-east to maintain our oil supply. We pay the taxes for our military to be there, but the cost should be imposed upon the corporations doing business.

All in all, by accounting for all costs on the business side, one gets a socially optimal result with maximum efficiency. Prices will tend to go up to the true cost of doing business, but taxes will tend to go down as the tax payer isn't required to foot the bill for corporations.

Of course, true free market economics is hard to implement. It is difficult to quantify the price of some externalities, especially when the negative effects take place in the future. Corporations with vested interests will also use there power to prevent legislation that would be costly to them. For instance, the tobacco industry delayed common sense policy for over 25 years.
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What they mean is that if a business diverts the price of polluting to everyone else this is what happens when you instead hold the business accountable by making it illegal:

1) Since the business is now paying for it by not polluting the toxin you will pay more for their product, but you will probably pay less for health insurance because there will be less people randomly dying as a result of this specific toxin.
2) And since these people aren't dying then jobs aren't lost and families aren't destroyed. Overall, you'll probably pay less since jobs and the economy aren't disrupted by these surprise deaths.

So don't focus on the cost of one single thing. This is a big interconnected dynamic world.

The trick is to quantify the pollutant or environmental destruction or whatever it's so that you can appropriately regulate business and make sure people aren't doing illegal things.

It's not wrong to stop crime. It's not wrong to stop someone from polluting. It's only wrong when people via a popular consensus feel it's wrong. We have to establish a national standard one way or another. I know that I do not want to see random deaths from industrial practices because business too often escape paying any of hte costs and hte burden instead is given to the public at large. Not only does this make it hard for the business to learn the necessary lessons (you have to get hurt to learn sometimes), but can we put a price on random deaths? Can you put a price on love? It's too easily exploited.

If I indirectly randomly kill a persons father by smoking too much near him, there's a good chance no one will notice, but if I killed directly, I'd be in the newspaper and prosecuted. Businesses get away with killing random people this way and it's ok up until we understand it and have the chance to stop it.
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Quoting alfabob:
Think a large pattern shift might occur soon.

Could you elaborate? I am not a meteorologist. Thanks.
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644. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER VINCE (09U)
3:00 PM WST January 14 2011
========================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low, Former Vince (996 hPa) located at 16.1S 113.6E, or 650 km north of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 10 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.7S 114.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 15.2S 114.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46907
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
The Brazilian flood disaster is just horrible. If you can read Spanish, you can make your way through this.
It's in Portuguese. Brazilinas speak portuguese, just sayin.
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Quoting spathy:

Get rid of the subsidy's and reduce my taxes,sounds like the more direct route!
Not increase my taxes to offset subsidy's.

Yes, getting rid of subsidies would be part of making market based solutions work. Ending subsidies would result in higher energy costs, but lower taxes. As with a carbon tax, whether one paid more or less with elimated subsidies would depend on a number of factors. However, as a whole, there would be a net gain.
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640. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE ZELIA (10U)
5:00 PM EST January 14 2011
==========================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Zelia, Category One (992 hPa) located at 12.8S 151.5E, or 770 km northeast
of Cairns and 425 km north northeast of Willis Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.9S 152.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.4S 153.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 20.0S 161.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 27.3S 168.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

Curved band pattern with 0.60 degree wrap on log 10 spiral, giving DT of 3.0. MT and PT also suggest 3.0. System is small so may undergo rapid intensity fluctuations. Standard development expected to due to low wind shear on forecast track.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46907
Quoting gatorojo:


Besides being Constitutional it fits in well with free-market theory. When subsidies and unaccounted externalities aren't figured into the supply/demand equation consumption of a given resource will be skewed resulting in lack of efficiency and a net social loss. This is the case with fossil fuels. A carbon tax would offset these inefficiencies while income tax reductions would encourage less wasteful behaviors.


Thanks.

Yes, what I propose is free market and constitutional and addresses AGW.

Definitely a good night. Right now. Period.

EM, keep your promises
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Quoting EnergyMoron:


Actually, if you are as energy efficient as you say you are you would love the proposal to offset the carbon tax treasury income with income tax reductions.

You would win big and the jet-setters would have to pay for having money to burn...

and this is consistent with the Federalist 36.

I like the Constitution.


Besides being Constitutional it fits in well with free-market theory. When subsidies and unaccounted externalities aren't figured into the supply/demand equation consumption of a given resource will be skewed resulting in lack of efficiency and a net social loss. This is the case with fossil fuels. A carbon tax would offset these inefficiencies while income tax reductions would encourage less wasteful behaviors.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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