Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

2010: tied with 2005 for warmest year in history
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:23 PM GMT on January 16, 2011 +5
The year 2010 was tied with 2005 as Earth's warmest year in history, according to separate calculations performed by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Temperatures during 2010 were 1.12°F (0.62°C) above the 20th century average. Reliable global temperature records go back to 1880. NOAA reported that the Northern Hemisphere had its warmest year on record in 2010, the Southern Hemisphere its 6th warmest, land areas their 2nd warmest, and the oceans their 3rd warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures of the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere during 2010 were virtually tied with 1998 for warmest on record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). The 1998 temperatures were 0.01°C warmer than 2010, but the difference is so small that the two years should be considered tied for first place. These measurements are very sensitive to the effect of major El Niño events that warm the waters and atmosphere over the Eastern Pacific. Thus the 1998 El Niño--the strongest such event ever recorded--set a global lower atmospheric temperature record that had been impossible to match until 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for 2010. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

Earth's warmest temperatures in 2010, relative to average, occurred in western Greenland and eastern Canada, where record-duration sea ice loss contributed to temperatures that were 9°F (5°C) above average for the year (Figure 1.) The coolest temperatures, relative to average, were in central Siberia, 5.4°F (3°C) below average. In addition to being the warmest year on record globally, it was also the wettest (Figure 4.)


Figure 2. The latest rankings by NOAA of the hottest years globally since 1880. Earth's ten hottest years have all come since 1998, and the decade of the 2000s was by far the warmest decade in the historical record. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 3. Global departure of temperature from average for 1880-2010, as computed by NASA.


Figure 4. Global departure of precipitation from average for 1900 - 2010. The year 2010 set a new record for wettest year in Earth's history. The difference in precipitation from average in 2010 was about 13% higher than that of the previous record wettest year, 1956. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

A record warm year during a deep solar minimum: an unusual occurrence
The 2010 record warmth was unusual in that it occurred during a period when energy from the sun was at its lowest levels since satellite measurements began in the 1970s. The 11-year sunspot cycle causes a 0.1% variation in the amount of energy reaching the Earth. White et al. (1997) found that sea surface temperatures varied by about 0.04 - 0.07°C on time scales of 11 - 22 years due to this change in solar energy, with temperatures lagging the sunspot cycle by 1.5 - 3 years (because the ocean is slow to heat up and cool down in response.) So, although solar activity began to pick up somewhat in 2010, the 1.5 - 3 year lag in ocean temperature response meant that the record low solar activity of 2008 - 2009 was what affected global temperatures in 2010. Given that the departure of Earth's temperature from average during 2010 was 0.62°C, this difference would have been perhaps 10% greater had we been 2 - 3 years past the peak of the 11-year sunspot cycle. The previous global temperature record, set in 2005, occurred 3 - 5 years after the twin-peaked previous solar cycle. It is very difficult to get a record warm year during a deep solar minimum, making the 2010 record one likely to be broken later this decade as the sun begins to exert a greater warming influence on the planet.


Figure 5. During 2008 - 2009, the energy from the sun arriving at the top of Earth's atmosphere (Total Solar Irradiance, or TSI) as measured by satellites fell to its lowest value since satellite measurements began in 1978. Image credit: Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos World Radiation Center.

References
Skepticalscience.com has an in-depth discussion of Solar activity & climate: is the sun causing global warming?

Wunderground climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has a comprehensive 5-part series on how the sun affects climate.

Gray, L.J., J. Beer, M. Geller, J.D. Haigh, M. Lockwood, 2010, "Solar Influences on Climate", Accepted in Rev. Geophys, 2010.

White, W.B., J. Lean, D.R. Cayan and M.D. Dettinger (1997), Response of global upper ocean temperature to changing solar irradiance, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 3255-3266.

Thunderstorms hurl antimatter into space
NASA announced this week that mature thunderstorms can produce antimatter when exceptionally powerful lightning bolts occur. The antimattter beams were detected by the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. The amount of antimatter produced is tiny, though, and probably not enough to help power a starship.

"Cap'n, we're running low on antimatter to power the warp engines. Can you fly in low over those thunderstorms to replenish our reserves? We'll use the transporters to gather the antimatter and funnel it into the antimatter containment vessel."

"OK, Scotty!"

I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters
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251. Ossqss 2:40 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting hcubed:
To me, this is the telling phrase:

"...In practice, climate science has numerous examples where authors of highly influential papers have refused to reveal their complete set of data or the processing methods that they used. Even worse, the journals in question not only allowed this to happen, but have subsequently defended the lack of disclosure when other researchers attempted to replicate the work..."

And yes, these are the "peer-reviewed" journals.


Why would they hide information, and that of which was paid with public monies ? Just wait on the UVA item. It will be a doosie :) out>>>>>

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154
252. HadesGodWyvern 2:41 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia, Category Three (970 hPa) located at 24.9S 165.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots and is reported as moving southeast at 30 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral visible/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
180 NM from the center in northern semi-circle, within 120 NM in southeast quadrant, and 60 NM in the southwest quadrant

Additional Information
========================

Organization has decreased slightly past 24 hours. Primary bands to the north and south decreasing significantly with north band influenced by New Caledonia land mass. Eye remains cloud filled. Outflow fair but decreasing to the north and south. System is being steered southeastward by the deep layer mean northwesterly regime. Cyclone is accelerating into a weak sheared environment and cooler sea surface temperatures.

Dvorak assessment based on embedded center with MG SURR, yielding DT=4.5, MET=4.5, PT=4.0. Final Dvorak T number based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24HRS.

Most global models eventually move the cyclone southeast with gradual weakening in the next 24 hours and then rapid weakening after 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 28.9S 168.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 33.2S 170.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 41.3S 177.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at around 7:00 AM UTC By TCWC Wellington..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36688
253. HaloReachFan 2:41 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Alright Lovestormsatnight.

I went to the 5th one on the list and got back this for the Author but actually in this case Authurs.

G. G. Anagnostopoulosa; D. Koutsoyiannisa; A. Christofidesa; A. Efstratiadisa; N. Mamassisa

Just a little something I couldn't find anything on them because of you know no first names so how did you find so much on them. Unless you magically have their first names you can really find nothing on them an easy google search did it for me.
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255. HaloReachFan 2:44 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
And number 4 was the former director of Climatology at ASU.
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256. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 2:45 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
we have become so smart we are stupid
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40636
257. HaloReachFan 2:47 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Number 3 is about tree rings which is what Craig Loehle specializes in

Loehle "received a B.S. in forest science from the University of Georgia, a M.S. in forest management from the University of Washington, and a Ph.D. in range management (mathematical ecology) from Colorado State University"

Your character assassination is looking horrible right now.

Edit

Added this. Article 1 and 2 also are from Craig Loehle which are also about tree rings. Get over yourself right now seriously.
Member Since: September 15, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 563
258. pottery 2:50 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Heavy persistent rains in the Philipines have so far killed over 50 people and affected 1.6 million.
Dec and Jan are usually dryseason months.....

from CNN

Extreme weather continues to create havoc all over the place.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708
260. HaloReachFan 2:56 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
So LoveStormsatNight is lying to everybody on this blog. By not giving everybody all the information about what the articles are about and why the authors are allowed to comment on the subject.

Numbers 1-3 are about tree rings the author has a M.S. in forest management seems like he should be allowed to talk about tree rings

Number 4 is by Robert Balling Jr. and the article is about (Redirected from Environmental geoscience)
Environmental geology, like hydrogeology, is an applied science concerned with the practical application of the principles of geology in the solving of environmental problems.
Balling is a professor of geology at ASU and also ran the Climatology department there for a while too.

Number 5 has a bunch of authors all of which I can't find anything on them mainly because of no first names so how did he find anything on them?
Member Since: September 15, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 563
261. HaloReachFan 2:57 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
For HaloReachFan. You're welcome. Link


So one person out of 5 and you think that's enough? I think he didn't write the whole article because he didn't know enough that is why 4 others joined in. ;)
Member Since: September 15, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 563
262. calusakat 2:58 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting pottery:

You are just trying to get a rise out of Calusakat, are'nt you? LOL


Why?

Were her comments peer reviewed?

No?

Her comments are now ignored.

Thanks you for calling my attention to her post.

Just kidding :-)


Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
263. xcool 2:59 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    



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265. hcubed 3:02 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting calusakat:
Quoting Patrap:

Climate Model Indications and the Observed Climate



Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change.


Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.



Boring.

How many times have you posted the same thing now.

10 times?

Sure seems like it.

Maybe you could find another source authority for a change?




At least now there's a link to the paper that uses the image. No data or info as to who ran the simulations.

"...Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line)..."

Apparently, none of the models or experiments were able to hind-cast the spike in observed.

BTW, exactly when were these experiments run?
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 286 Comments: 1639
266. DontAnnoyMe 3:03 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting HaloReachFan:


How many storms made a direct hit with the U.S. this season? By direct I mean Eye Wall as a hurricane slamming into the U.S.


None. And a direct hit is not a landfall:

Direct Hit:
A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind.

Landfall:
The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline.

Glossary of NHC Terms

There were 13 direct hits and 16 landfalls elsewhere.

2010 Atlantic hurricane season
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268. pottery 3:04 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting xcool:




What are those showing ????
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270. HaloReachFan 3:07 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
I said Loehle had studied foresty. And David H. Douglass is climatologist for Arizona, but he got his degree in astronomy and physics, not

Which was a political appointment---he got his degree in neither climatology or meteorology.


David H. Douglass was apart of the 6th article which also has many other authors.

Also he has none of which you posted this is his wikipedia

David H. Douglass is an American physicist at the University of Rochester. Prof. Douglass received his B.S. in Physics from the University of Maine and his Ph.D. in Physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. After positions at MIT Lincoln Laboratories and MIT, he was appointed Assistant Professor of Physics at the University of Chicago. At Chicago, he was promoted to Associate Professor and Professor. Prof. Douglass joined the University of Rochester as a Professor of Physics in 1968. Prof. Douglass was a recipient of the Alfred P. Sloan Award (junior) for 4 years, the Alfred P. Sloan Award (senior), and the University of Rochester's Bridging Fellowship to the Eastman School of Music. He is a Fellow of the American Physical Society and the New York Academy of Sciences.

Does any of that look what you wrote. Again another lie.
Member Since: September 15, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 563
272. HaloReachFan 3:08 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


I didn't ask for the real definition of it. Just which hit the U.S. and in fact it still remains as one weak system as all of the storms that hit just south of Texas had the left part of the hurricane just missing the state.
Member Since: September 15, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 563
273. HaloReachFan 3:09 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
Once again, HaloReachFan, none of your points refuted anything I said :) But your effort is appreciated :)


Actually all my points did. I pointed you out as a liar ;)

Number 270 is the greatest example.
Member Since: September 15, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 563
275. washingtonian115 3:09 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting xcool:



Thanks for posting that.If that's correct then it looks like we could have another strong cape verde season.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10664
276. Neapolitan 3:09 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
I can't help but wonder whether and when the following glaciers will start re-growing with the onset of the coming period of magic global cooling wished for predicted by some contrarians.

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166
277. HaloReachFan 3:12 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
Not a lie. And personal attacks are unbecoming. He is neither a meteorologist nor a climatologist.



Don't lie. I'm not personally attacking you you said David Douglass did things he never did I just corrected you and said you lied which is true. You did lie to people on this blog.

A lie (also called prevarication, falsehood) is a type of deception in the form of an untruthful statement, especially with the intention to deceive others, often with the further intention to maintain a secret or reputation, protect someone's feelings or to avoid a punishment or repercussion ...
Member Since: September 15, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 563
280. hcubed 3:13 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
Ossqss it's not me who posted a list of "850 papers skeptical of global warming"--a list of papers primarily NOT by climatologists or meteorologists. You can't fault me for examining your list, and finding it misleading.

I'm sure there are some papers by meteorologists or climatologists hiding somewhere in that list you put up. But most of it is dreck. Papers by people not in the fields of climatology or meteorology.

Were you hoping that no one would examine your list?


I'm still waiting for someone to post a list of degrees that they WILL accept as appropriate for "climate science" scientists. There are some who think meteorologists should be included.

And I'd also like to see a list of the "peer-reviewed" journals they'll accept.

I know there's one out there, they keep referring back to it...
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 286 Comments: 1639
281. washingtonian115 3:14 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting KoritheMan:


Which is why I wish there were better ways for us to predict synoptic scale steering. That's far more important than numbers.
Good exsamples of this are 2004.It was less in the way of the number of storms but the destruction is what made it the most memberable season.And a better exsample is 1992.Even though 2010 was active it won't be as rememberable as 2004 since less storms impacted the U.S.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10664
282. pottery 3:14 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting washingtonian115:
Thanks for posting that.If that's correct then it looks like we could have another strong cape verde season.
I dont understand the graphic.....
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283. JRRP 3:15 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting xcool:




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284. calusakat 3:16 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting HaloReachFan:


Actually all my points did. I pointed you out as a liar ;)

Number 270 is the greatest example.


Halo...you are arguing with a fool...

and getting real close to making it so he is arguing with one as well.

He obviously doesn't have the education sufficient to provide coherent counter-point to the various presentations before him so he simply does what is left to him.

Doing whatever it takes to silence the opposition.


Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
285. HaloReachFan 3:16 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
I said Douglass is neither a climatologist nor a meteorologist. Which is accurate.


But you said Douglass was this...

Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
I said Loehle had studied foresty. And David H. Douglass is climatologist for Arizona, but he got his degree in astronomy and physics, not

Which was a political appointment---he got his degree in neither climatology or meteorology.


Which he isn't
Member Since: September 15, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 563
286. HaloReachFan 3:18 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting calusakat:


Halo...you are arguing with a fool...

and getting real close to making it so he is arguing with one as well.

He obviously doesn't have the education sufficient to provide coherent counter-point to the various presentations before him so he simply does what is left to him.

Doing whatever it takes to silence the opposition.




Sorry I got carried away thanks for bringing me out of that slump I was getting into phew time to take a breathe arguing with these people is stressful enough.
Member Since: September 15, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 563
288. HaloReachFan 3:18 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
But calusakat it feels good to be right here ;)
Member Since: September 15, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 563
289. DontAnnoyMe 3:19 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting HaloReachFan:


I didn't ask for the real definition of it.


Oh, sorry to over-inform you. I'll go back and delete that part ;-)
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
290. calusakat 3:21 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting HaloReachFan:
But calusakat it feels good to be right here ;)


Absolutely . :-)


Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
293. washingtonian115 3:25 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting pottery:
I dont understand the graphic.....
That map shows the percipitation amount in the tropics.The bluer the more percipitation,the redder the drier.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10664
294. hcubed 3:26 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting Neapolitan:
I can't help but wonder whether and when the following glaciers will start re-growing with the onset of the coming period of magic global cooling wished for predicted by some contrarians.

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Too bad there's no pictures of those glaciers during the 1800's.

Probably would have seen some change there, too.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 286 Comments: 1639
295. CrazyDuke 3:29 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Well, since the GW "debate" has fired up again; and, I noticed someone mentioned that people are set in their ways; I figured I would offer up my 2 cents for the night:

About 2/3rds of the population will always, always believe and do whatever someone in authority tells them. Who they see as the authority will depend on their social identity. They do not care about how the world works or why, only that it does. Rules in and of themselves are good and fair.

Most of the rest will go with the flow just to avoid rocking the boat. They may attempt to change things gradually or mitigate losses at the very least. But, they will always do so while working within the previously mentioned leadership framework, and will be largely ineffective. To change broken rules, one must work within the existing ones.

The remaining few are split between analytical people and leaders. Leaders that do not pay homage to the established leadership are branded as criminals. Although, there is often very little difference between the classifications outside of circumstance and impulse control issues. Rules are decrees of authority, something lower people abide by.

So, for what it's worth. There are people out there that are actually interested in how the world works. Chances are, you don't like them. ...not if they are honest with you at least. And, since they aren't "part of the team," much of any team really, it makes them easy targets for leaders the profit from ignorance instead of merit. You can convince these people if you provide them with the information in a format they can swallow. But, usually they are persecuted by people that just want to beat them until they shut up, get back in the line, and start towing. Confront the persecutors about it, and they claim to be teaching the recipients the truth, more like "teaching them a lesson" instead of "why or why not." Rules are merely artificial constructs for organizing people and guiding them towards achieving goals.

So, yes, there are people in this world that do have a strong enough sense of self to think for themselves to some crippled extent. They are rare, and sometimes driven half mad thanks to near continuous rejection of their actual selves. But, they do exist.
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296. Chicklit 3:32 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Dr. Masters has mentioned in several of his posts and interviews that the reason for the Brazil floods and the Australian floods is due to the very warm sea surface temperatures. His current blog says we've had a second record breaking hot year in 2010.
The reason for the warming is traced back to pollution, specifically fossil fuels, primarily oil.
The governments who supply us with this fuels for the most part want us all dead.
What better way than to just keep selling us the stuff and encouraging us to use it indiscriminately?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254
297. Neapolitan 3:35 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting hcubed:


Too bad there's no pictures of those glaciers during the 1800's.

Probably would have seen some change there, too.

Almost certainly; there would have been even more ice. The terminal ends of those glaciers in their "before" photos show ice many hundreds or even thousands of years old. Pretty amazing--and disturbing, at least to me--just how rapidly a massive chunk of ice hundreds of feet thick, thousands of feet wide, and miles long can simply vanish into nothingness...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166
299. pottery 3:38 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting washingtonian115:
That map shows the percipitation amount in the tropics.The bluer the more percipitation,the redder the drier.

Oh!! (Duh!!!)
Thanks for that.
Back to look at them again....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708
300. Chicklit 3:39 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
hcubed, that is a very weak argument.
Just because no one has the sorts of records we keep today doesn't mean we don't have other ways of understanding conditions hundreds and even thousands, maybe millions of years ago.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254
301. pottery 3:39 AM GMT on January 17, 2011    
Quoting hcubed:


Too bad there's no pictures of those glaciers during the 1800's.

Probably would have seen some change there, too.

Silly post.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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