Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Globe cools slightly in December 2010: 11th - 17th warmest on record
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:43 PM GMT on January 18, 2011 +1
December 2010 was the globe's 17th warmest December on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated December 2010 the 11th warmest December on record. December 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 30th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 7th warmest on record, according to both Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). The global cool-down from November, which was the warmest November on record for the globe, was due in large part to the on-going moderate strength La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific. The large amount of cold water that upwells to the surface during a La Niña typically causes a substantial cool-down in global temperatures. Still, December 2010 temperatures were warm enough to make 2010 tied with 2005 as Earth's warmest year in history, as I reported in yesterday's post.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from December 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for December 2010. Eastern Canada and Greenland were very warm, relative to average, and much of Siberia and Europe were abnormally cold. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

An average December for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., December was near-average in temperature, ranking as the 44th coldest December in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year 2010 was the 23rd warmest on record. A strong "Arctic Oscillation" pattern allowed cold air to spill southward over the Southeast U.S., resulting in the coldest December on record in Florida and Georgia. Nine other states in the Southeast U.S. had top-ten coldest Decembers. Five states in the Southwest U.S. had top-ten warmest Decembers. A series of major snowstorms brought the 7th-largest December snow cover to the U.S. as a whole. December 2010 precipitation in the contiguous U.S. was also near average, ranking 54th driest in the 116-year record. Montana and Utah had their wettest Decembers on record, and six other states had top-ten wettest Decembers--Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oregon, Maine, and California. Six states had top-ten driest Decembers--Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, and Delaware.

La Niña in the "moderate" to "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing moderate to strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 1.5°C below average as of January 10, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.45°C below average (as of January 9.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through through spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual during La Niña events.

December 2010 Arctic sea ice extent lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in December 2010 was the lowest in the 31-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice volume in December was also the lowest on record for this time of year, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. At the end of December, the eastern portion of Canada's Hudson Bay remained unfrozen, the first time in recorded history that Hudson Bay has not been completely frozen over at the end of the year. The unusual amount of open water led to temperatures that averaged 20°C (36°F) above normal over a region larger than Texas during the first ten days of January.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Summaries
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301. presslord 11:51 PM GMT on January 18, 2011    
Quoting RitaEvac:
Getting emails already to help Pakistan to send money

DO NOT SEND MONEY TO PAKISTAN PEOPLE!

that money will not reach the people it will go to fund extremists. Send supplies and supplies only


Respectfully....I can assure you that any funds received by Portlight will go to established DPO's (Disabled Persons Organizations) with whom we have relationships and that those funds will be used to mitigate suffering of people with disabilities there. Sending supplies into Pakistan is a virtually insurmountable logistical challenge.
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303. atmoaggie 11:55 PM GMT on January 18, 2011    
Not a drought-buster, but this rain in SE LA is a step in the right direction.

For the last 2 months, we are missing over half of our normal rainfall for the period:


(Would need more than 6 inches to catch up. Looking further back, in the last 6 months...missing a foot of rain, here. Maybe got an inch from that line and the stratiform, now ending.)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
304. Jedkins01 12:01 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Quoting Neapolitan:

So you'll approach the task with the pre-bias that "...the manners in which temps are collected could have the data sets askew"? Well, then, good luck with your witch hunt!

P.S. -- The National Post doesn't hide the fact that it gives its stories an ultra-conservative spin. Shame that's the only place you could find such "science"...



Its a shame that you consider anyone who shares a view other than that of which is highly secular and highly liberal to have their facts wrong and are completely "anti science".



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305. NRAamy 12:09 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
thank you Jed!!!!!!
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937
311. ShenValleyFlyFish 12:34 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Quoting presslord:


Respectfully....I can assure you that any funds received by Portlight will go to established DPO's (Disabled Persons Organizations) with whom we have relationships and that those funds will be used to mitigate suffering of people with disabilities there. Sending supplies into Pakistan is a virtually insurmountable logistical challenge.
You got to send everything by drone.

Portlight does good work! Keep it up.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684
313. presslord 12:46 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Thats totally ignorant. Do you know what atmospheric scientists say about nuclear? The ones here - I have heard at lest one views it favorably. Can you even articulate a sensible discussion on climate?

Source your arguments or they are opinion.

Other than that you post is a waste of blog space. It has no information or argument.


What's wrong with opinion?!
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315. EnergyMoron 12:49 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
I fully agree with your assessment. Nuclear is a clean, safe, reliable, plentiful and sensible way to go. It will solve the GW problem, if one exists. It will put an end to the senseless debates the GW [folks] have. But since they are antinuke they don't support the move to nuclear. They have no plan except a hodgepodge of minor conservation proposals like keep your tires inflated.


Not true

Hansen on Nuclear

The tire inflation thing comes from the 2005 Republican Energy bill.

You are wasting money and harming public safety if you don't keep your tires inflated.

There is much that can be done independent of AGW that would help address AGW (like, 50% of the US carbon emissions)
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
316. GeoffreyWPB 12:51 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Quoting JFLORIDA:
You know normally I would say nothing but when it is presented as fact and contains a ridiculous smear I draw the line.

This is a natural science blog on a natural science site. Why is it such a chore to request accuracy out of posts. Especially overtly inflammatory ones?



Thank you Professor Marvel. I just saw Margaret Hamilton out my window.

Sad thing is I agree with you on most issues. Your presentation and responses stink.
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317. Patrap 12:51 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Aiiieeeeeeee...

Was a Nasty Squall Line here.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111344
318. Neapolitan 12:51 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Quoting Jedkins01:



Its a shame that you consider anyone who shares a view other than that of which is highly secular and highly liberal to have their facts wrong and are completely "anti science".




If you believe that, then either I've miscommunicated or you've misunderstood. I'll have to try harder to convince you that that's not at all my approach. ;-)

Seriously, you'd perhaps be surprised to know that I wasn't always so liberal or secular; it was only after exposing myself to the world at large, reading in depth, traveling to many places, and spending times immersed in many cultures that I changed my guiding philosophies. But that doesn't mean that I automatically reject everything a religious conservative says or embrace everything a secular liberal says--I even sided with several decidedly non-liberal causes and candidates in November elections. It's just that, in my own personal experience, the latter group agrees with my thoughts far more often than does the former.
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320. Patrap 12:57 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    



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321. Levi32 12:58 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
I have been studying some of the AGW predictions for the arctic region, and it's interesting how the IPCC projections show a large drop-off in atmospheric pressure in the arctic (more positive AO), which would naturally warm up most of the continents in the Northern hemisphere and reduce arctic sea ice. However, since arctic pressures went into the tank in the early 1990s, they have risen steadily since then, and we are now seeing some of the lowest Arctic Oscillation numbers on record during the last couple years.

The funny thing is, the negative AO is now being blamed for the reduced arctic sea ice extent, when the climate projections say a positive AO will accomplish that. Furthermore, a negative AO results in a colder arctic and mid-latitudes (where the polar easterlies dominate) than a positive AO. A possible reason why it may not be doing so in the arctic during the last two years is because both major ocean multidecadal cycles (PDO and AMO) have been mostly positive in recent history, shoving lots of warm water into the high latitudes which has stalled sea ice growth, though it has not yet dipped lower than the 2007 record 30-year low.

Regardless, the defiance of the IPCC projections during the last 20 years in regards to arctic atmospheric pressure is quite significant.


University of Illinois IPCC Arctic GCM Scenarios


NOAA ESRL - NCEP Reanalysis


Climate Prediction Center
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322. presslord 1:02 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
ya know...it's not just either 'religious conservative' or 'liberal secular'....
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323. bappit 1:05 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Saw this in the Wikipedia article on IPCC.

The IPCC does not carry out its own original research, nor does it do the work of monitoring climate or related phenomena itself. A main activity of the IPCC is publishing special reports on topics relevant to the implementation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) ...


If the IPCC is like a clearinghouse for papers, maybe we should cite the papers and their authors, not the IPCC.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4371
324. Ossqss 1:06 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Thank you Professor Marvel. I just saw Margaret Hamilton out my window.

Sad thing is I agree with you on most issues. Your presentation and responses stink.


It did smell better prior. This place used to be much more interactive and tolerant before the new Sheriffs came to town :(



Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154
325. hcubed 1:07 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Exactly but justified - they had no reputation before and posted challenges that were quickly disproved and invalidated because they were amateurish and bad arguments. None of us would go into a back alley for brain surgery just because a man with a knife tells us our doctor is wrong and part of a conspiracy.

Why do the same for climate.

Do you have a specific argument from them to present? We always end up having to hear them anyway.

I would like to see someone keeping track as they have all been, not just off, but dead wrong in predictions and challenges.


You mean like the "upside-down" Tiljander proxies retained in Mann 2008? Mann used this series in the opposite orientation to the orientation of the original studies.

Data that, when shown in it's proper orientation, still had a problem with recent calibration?

"...The SI showed that Mann et al were aware of Tiljander’s caveats but used the contaminated sediments (upside-down) anyway, thereby compromising the no-dendro reconstruction..."

A paper that was written by a respected scientist, went through peer-review, published in a respected journal, and still had a problem?

You mean data like that? Noticed first by a non-climatologist (with a degree in Math)?

http://climateaudit.org/2010/08/01/the-no-dendro-illusion/

Or was there some other item you think they got wrong?

You know, people might believe your side better if you put the same effort into examining papers on BOTH sides...
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 286 Comments: 1639
326. GeoffreyWPB 1:07 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Hi Levi...Just keep an open mind on everything. When I was your age, you would not believe the things I believed. Trust me, you will change your mind on some issues as you continue your education. On another note, did you hear that the actor who played Andrew on Touched By An Angel passed away? Very sad.
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327. Levi32 1:10 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hi Levi...Just keep an open mind on everything. When I was your age, you would not believe the things I believed. Trust me, you will change your mind on some issues as you continue your education. On another note, did you hear that the actor who played Andrew on Touched By An Angel passed away? Very sad.


Aw really? That is sad...:(

I do try to keep an open mind. However, I'm not one to fill my mind with the majority opinion simply because it is the majority.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25446
329. Levi32 1:12 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
The 2-week GFS ensembles are interesting....notice the deep polar vortex over Greenland, the complete opposite from what the winter through early January looked like with the monster blocking high over the same area. Interestingly enough, despite the reversing of that pattern, the GFS still tries to stick cold air into the eastern US. Given that this pattern normally pulls warm air and a nice flat ridge across the eastern US, it will be interesting to see if the GFS isn't just overdoing it, or if this winter will continue to be stubborn with the cold.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25446
330. calusakat 1:12 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Quoting presslord:
ya know...it's not just either 'religious conservative' or 'liberal secular'....


Excuse me.

Are you talking about real people or are you talking about legends in their own mind who can transmogrify such things into a singularity with ease.

Makes a difference ya know.



Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
331. Levi32 1:13 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Quoting bappit:
Saw this in the Wikipedia article on IPCC.

The IPCC does not carry out its own original research, nor does it do the work of monitoring climate or related phenomena itself. A main activity of the IPCC is publishing special reports on topics relevant to the implementation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) ...


If the IPCC is like a clearinghouse for papers, maybe we should cite the papers and their authors, not the IPCC.


The IPCC publishes their AGW climate predictions and the global weather impacts based on their model projections. Therefore, they will be cited here.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25446
332. Neapolitan 1:15 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Quoting presslord:
ya know...it's not just either 'religious conservative' or 'liberal secular'....

Of course. But the OP had used the term "highly secular and highly liberal" (italics mine), so I merely echoed back the same. There are many shades and hues and tints on the American religious/political spectrum.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11149
333. GeoffreyWPB 1:16 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Quoting Levi32:


Aw really? That is sad...:(

I do try to keep an open mind. However, I'm not one to fill my mind with the majority opinion simply because it is the majority.


Nor should you. One should develop one’s beliefs through careful contemplation of both sides of an issue.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9119
334. Ossqss 1:19 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Well perhaps if I started spouting out pure opinion without reference whatsoever. Like facebook or twitter?

Seriously usually when I have nothing intelligent to say I keep quiet. Many of the regulars here are the reason this is such a unreferenced disaster. Youve been here long enough to influence discussion. Pity you didn't have the courage to take the initiative.


I count 72% of the time, that is not the case.

Just sayin, look back at how many people you chewed up and spit out in the last 100 posts you have made. Perhaps you need to be reminded, this is not your blog? Hummm, for that matter, several others also qualify, Ya think? :)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154
337. washingtonian115 1:21 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Aw man I always seem to come to the blog late when the once-in-a-while bloggers finally come to chat for a bit.But with that said hello Levi32.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10627
338. Levi32 1:21 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Solar Cycle #24 sunspot prediction numbers have been revised down yet again, this time down to a maximum of 59 (smoothed).



NASA Solar Cycle Prediction

If this prediction comes true, and it likely will given that the sun has been severely overestimated so far during SC24, it will not be very dissimilar to SC5, the first cycle of the Dalton Minimum in the early 1800s, when the sun went through a period of very low activity.



Solar Cycle #5: Solar Terrestrial Activity Report
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341. Patrap 1:26 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
The Singularity


No one knew what I knew at the moment it became known...
It was a singularity.
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342. Levi32 1:27 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
After some minor B-flare activity over the past several days due to some weak sunspot areas, the solar flux is going back in the tank.



Space Weather Prediction Center
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25446
343. atmoaggie 1:29 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Quoting presslord:
ya know...it's not just either 'religious conservative' or 'liberal secular'....
Agreed.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
344. misanthrope 1:29 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
I fully agree with your assessment. Nuclear is a clean, safe, reliable, plentiful and sensible way to go. It will solve the GW problem, if one exists. It will put an end to the senseless debates the GW Kooks have. But since they are antinuke they don't support the move to nuclear. They have no plan except a hodgepodge of minor conservation proposals like keep your tires inflated.

The only thing stopping people from building lots of nuclear power plants is that the economics of nuclear power production suck. Nobody will build them without massive federal subsidies. Actually, it's hard to find someone to build them even with massive federal subsidies.
Member Since: February 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 449
347. Levi32 1:32 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
If the GFS ends up correct about the cold remaining in the eastern US despite a positive AO and NAO, I think a lot of it will have to do with the area of below-normal heights in the NW Pacific and over Japan. The jetstream out there racing off Asia has been being pulled farther south than normal all winter, and at various times has resulted in ridging either over the NE Pacific or over the western US. This could be what is still allowing arctic air to invade the eastern US, but there are a lot of interesting things about this winter that have to be explored.

500mb height anomalies for the last 30 days:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25446
349. Patrap 1:34 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
The new Congress..,,.?

Pfffth

Now theres a new angle,

Will there be Chalkboards?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111344
350. Levi32 1:36 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Quoting JFLORIDA:
I notice the denial crowd chases around every bit of innuendo. The problem with that approach is you can never build a complete theory for climate or especially change on innuendo.

The mountain of scientific  information on climate grows built on the foundation of itself and the hole of errors and incorrect information the denial community has dug gets deeper.

That is why a huge umbrella mutinational governemnt/education/carbon trade conspracy theory is needed by the denial community to continue in the face of such failure. Its miinions populate this board and attack for every reason BUT valid climate discussion hoping desperately to shut it down.


Yeah, I must be an oil-pumping conspiracy nut in my freshman year. No way I could just be a weather geek enjoying discussion of the issues, as I have been for the past 6 years here. I was still paid by the oil companies when I was 13 too. They sent me here to blog for them.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25446
351. atmoaggie 1:39 AM GMT on January 19, 2011    
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, I must be an oil-pumping conspiracy nut in my freshman year. No way I could just be a weather geek enjoying discussion of the issues, as I have been for the past 6 years here. I was still paid by the oil companies when I was 13 too. They sent me here to blog for them.
I'm still leaving comments here to pay off that Christmas present an ExxonMobil employee gave me a year ago...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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