Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Another flooding mega-disaster: Sri Lanka recovers from extreme flooding
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:14 PM GMT on January 19, 2011 +3
At least 43 are dead and thousands still in refugee camps due to extreme flooding in eastern Sri Lanka caused by record monsoon rains. According to the United Nations, the rains in recent weeks in Sri Lanka have been the heaviest in nearly 100 years of record keeping, and the flood that resulted was a 1-in-100 year event, according to The U.N. Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System. Rainfall at Batticaloa, Sri Lanka, during the 42-day period December 1 - January 12 was 1606 mm (63"), which is about how much rain the station usually receives in an entire year (1651 mm, or 65".) Sri Lanka's previous most devastating flooding disaster was the 2004 tsunami, but as The Economist commented, "in terms of the numbers of people displaced and farmland inundated, the floods have been even more devastating than the tsunami of December 2004." Damage estimates start at $500 million, and much of Sri Lanka's agriculture has been severely damaged by the disaster. Also of concern is the large number of land mines from the recent Sri Lanka civil war that may have been unearthed by the floods. Water is also a major concern in the flood-hit area, as fighting between government forces and Tamil Tigers rebels from mid-2007 to May 2009 damaged or destroyed almost all of the water facilities.


Figure 1. A family affected by the 2011 Sri Lanka floods braves the flood waters. Image credit: United Nations.

Sri Lanka is now the fifth nation in the past six month to suffer a flooding disaster unprecedented in its history. As I reported in a previous post, the other four mega-impact floods--the July 2010 Pakistan floods, the December - January Queensland Australia floods, the November 2010 Colombia floods, and the January 2011 Rio de Janeiro floods--were all accompanied by an atmosphere laden with moisture, due, in part, due to sea surface temperatures over nearby ocean areas that were the 2nd or 3rd warmest on record. However, that was not the case for the Sri Lanka floods. Ocean temperatures during December 2010 were 0.2°C below average in the 5x5 degree square of ocean adjoining the island (5N - 10N, 80E - 85E). The floods appear to be due to the normal monsoon rains that typically affect the region this time of year, enhanced by the strong La Niña event occurring in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated precipitation over Sri Lanka for January 3 - 9. Up to 18 inches (525 mm) fell over eastern Sri Lanka. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Flood
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852. EnergyMoron 4:50 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
shocked just wait you have seen nothing yet


had to report per taz an earlier post since i do have daughters who visit this site.

anyway...

IPCC to be defunded by congress in their pathetic attempt to reduce a 1.25 trillion dollar deficit by cutting .25 trillion.

expect serious fireworks
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853. RufusBaker 4:51 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
who gives a ploop hurricane in gulf next month!
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 510
854. sunlinepr 4:51 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Are there any possibility of Neutrino Shower as cause of Earth’s end?

Since *most* neutrinos can pass all the way through the Earth with no interaction at all, even an increase in the neutrino density *probably* would have little to no effect. Right now, millions to billions are passing through your body, and untold *zillions* through the bulk of Earth itself.

Only in the event of a nearby supernova. Only supernovas produce so many neutrinos that it becomes deadly. In 1987, there was a supernova in the Large Magellanic Cloud that made all our neutrino detectors go off the scale.

Gazillions of neutrinos are zooming right through my body as we speak, and I feel just fine. Same with the Earth.

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856. Quadrantid 4:59 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
Thanks for all the info. There is some type of star, if I'm not mistaken that can send a narrow beam of high energy in opposite directions when it explodes, and if we are in the path of the beam we are fried, even if at great distance. I read that somewhere as a possible cause for a mass extinction.


If I remember right, that's an idea based on one explanation for gamma ray bursters -- which are one of nature's many poorly explained phenomena :) Essentially, when people started observing gamma rays, they noticed occasional bursts of them from random directions in space, which couldn't be associated with anything we knew. If I remember right, the first suggestions were that they were something very near the Earth (and hence had really tiny luminosities - they were bright because they were nearby). People have since come to the conclusion that, instead, they're incredibly distant (and hence among the most luminous things ever observed). One of the leading theories is that some supernovae (I think those caused by the merging/collision of two neutron stars, though again don't quote me on that - long time since I read about this) emit the great majority of their energy in a tight beam, out from their poles (such beaming isn't unprecedented -- it's something people have discussed with quasars, radio galaxies, and is also something people suggest is a mass loss route for stars as they form). If you're aligned with that beam, then you see a burst of radiation, when it reaches you -- the gamma ray burst. The idea is that the chance of such alignment with Earth is tiny, and the collision events are really rare, which is why even in a universe as large as ours, we see very few of these events (and those we've seen to date are right on the edge of the observable universe). If one happened nearby (say, in our galaxy), and was perfectly aligned, we'd have problems :) At least, that's the idea as best I remember it :) Whether it's widely accepted is another matter - it isn't really my field, so I couldn't tell you :)
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857. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:59 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Quoting EnergyMoron:


had to report per taz an earlier post since i do have daughters who visit this site.

anyway...

IPCC to be defunded by congress in their pathetic attempt to reduce a 1.25 trillion dollar deficit by cutting .25 trillion.

expect serious fireworks
iam sure your girls have seen and read a lot worse than i will ever type give it a rest pal
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858. EnergyMoron 5:00 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Are you serious? 20 mpg? A V-8 Studebaker land cruiser got better mileage than that!


Sorry for the slow response. Since there is an open challenge to arrest anybody for mentioning 2012 methinks i will

2012 Ford C-Max

work for an energy company and not Ford.

Drove it in Europe. i lived there and complained that i had to have a Ford rental car (asked for the biggest with our 3 adopted children).

40 MPG on gasoline (the diesel folks say gets about 50).

i did try to redirect the conversation towards the 2012 model and somebody is waiting for it...

btw... one of the funniest aspects of the 20 mpg car is despite dealer calling color pyrite somebody else called it poop (polite crowd so use polite terms).

a 20 mpg poop color car... yah... just what i want!

report me (if my daughter reads this so what)
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859. KoritheMan 5:03 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Quoting RufusBaker:
who gives a ploop hurricane in gulf next month!


It's certainly not impossible:

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860. aquak9 5:08 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
once in a lifetime....

hi keeper- you keep me smiling even after 16 hours at work

zzzzzzzz
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861. JRRP 5:08 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
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862. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:15 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
somebody got to do it the rest are too uptight and some are not tight at all
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863. Grothar 5:18 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Before I turn in, I thought some of you would enjoy this little Robert Frost quote. I was going to post it earlier, but, you know me; I don't like to cause trouble (chuckle) This of course is not intended for any of you on here tonight.

Forgive me my nonsense, as I also forgive the nonsense of those that think they talk sense.
Robert Frost


Have a good evening and stay well.

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864. reedzone 5:20 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
A mini squall line has formed in Central Florida, surprised a MESODISCUSSION wasn't issued on it, it looks good enough to have a watch.
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865. Xyrus2000 5:20 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Quoting Jedkins01:


lol, I love how people like you own yourselves in trying to cut others down, that's a key characteristic of an over sized ego :)



Yeah. I really owned myself. Big time. Me and my huge ego, and the way I just insult everyone on here left and right. The way I make idiotic claims about science and provide no corroborating evidence or peer-reviewed sources. The way I just troll aimlessly about any topic, and bring up topics sure to turn a discussion into porridge. You know, like bringing up the Nazi's in a climate discussion? The way I go on and on about how the hurricane experts are so wrong in all their predictions on hurricane tracks, and that their science and models are just crap compared to my amazing forecasting abilities. The way I just know for a fact that there is a big conspiracy about the price of Kellog's corn flakes just because, like IT'S SO OBVIOUS.

Yeah, that's me. Me and my big ego.

I guess in your view, the effort to educate and correct someone is arrogant. Providing explanations and links to sources is just my big ego getting in the way. And heaven forbid I inform someone that the "science" articles they're referring to isn't from a peer-reviewed source.

For the most part, people who don't have anything to contribute or don't want to participate have been respectfully quiet. Others have not be so respectful, using fallacious arguments and logic, and launching into insulting diatribes directed at those attempting to correct bad information and mis-impressions. Unlike individuals like Levi32 who has respectfully and intellectually discussed the topic without resorting to imbecilic insults, these individuals do nothing besides pollute the conversation, bring out hostilities, and continue to spread nothing but ignorance and vitriolic nonsense.

When I see or hear someone spreading deceit, lies, and misinformation it sets my teeth on edge. There is always the option to just ignore the whole discussion entirely. But it is not in my nature to sit idly by while certain individuals spout off unverified claims and ludicrous conspiracy speculation trying to pass it off a pure science and fact when it is not. At best it is intellectually dishonest and ranks right up there with telling little girls they'll get pregnant if they kiss a boy.

Now if this bothers you so much, and if you haven't already done so, just add me to your ignore list. Then you can sit there and feel as smug as a priest before the pearly gates about putting me and massive ego in my place.
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866. xcool 5:21 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
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867. BtnTx 5:23 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Quoting JFLORIDA:
A type II supernova belongs to a sub-category of cataclysmic variable star known as a core-collapse supernova, which results from the internal collapse and violent explosion of a massive star. The presence of hydrogen in its spectrum is what distinguishes a type II supernova from other classes of supernova explosions. A star must have at least 9 times the mass of the Sun in order to undergo this type of core-collapse


very interesting!
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868. EnergyMoron 5:24 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Unlike individuals like Levi32 who has respectfully and intellectually discussed the topic without resorting to imbecilic insults


Keeper says to move on but affirmation is always a good thing.

You smell test. You said you are sorry then you defended Levi (best other than the Doc on hurricanes on this blog...)

Okay keeper the body is tired so i have to listen to what you say... not because you said it of course :)
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869. EYEStoSEA 5:24 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Thanks for the visual Xcool....hope to get some sun tomorrow :}
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870. xcool 5:27 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
welcome
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871. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:27 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Quoting reedzone:
A mini squall line has formed in Central Florida, surprised a MESODISCUSSION wasn't issued on it, it looks good enough to have a watch.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476
872. xcool 5:30 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXju8_EXko0


Cameras on the International Space Station captured new views of Hurricanes Julia and Igor from 225 statute miles above the Earth on September 16, 2010 as well as views of newly formed Hurricane Karl. Julia is weakening, but is seen in the video as a formidable Category 2 hurricane as it moved northwest across the eastern Atlantic with winds of 105 miles an hour. Igor remains a powerful hurricane and strengthened overnight back to a Category 4 storm as it moved west-northwest across the western Atlantic with winds of 145 miles an hour. What was Tropical Storm Karl crossed the Yucatan Peninsula overnight and strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane over the Bay of Campeche Thursday morning with winds of 75 miles an hour.

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873. sunlinepr 5:31 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
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874. Grothar 5:32 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Quoting xcool:


Where you been hiding, xcool? Haven't seen a map from you in months.
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875. Xyrus2000 5:32 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Quoting Quadrantid:


Betelgeuse will, one day, go supernova. In fact, in astronomical terms, it's pretty damn close. That said, it's very unlikely to go bang this week, this month, or this year. Most discussions I've seen of it suggest that the supernova event will occur at some point in the next million years or so... it'll probably be sooner than that, but given that the stars move, relative to one another, it'll probably be significantly further from the Earth by the time it does go pop than it is now.

To give you a first-order estimate of the lifetime of a given star (from birth to death), then you can work it out fairly easily as follows. The luminosity of a star is, roughly proportional to the fourth power of its mass (that varies a bit, dependent on which fusion process is going on in the core, which is why the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram's main sequence is curved, rather than straight, but it's a reasonable assumption). The material fused by the star, its fuel, is the material that makes it up. Hydrogen burning takes up the great, great, great majority of the stars life (with helium, carbon, etc. phases, in the post-main-sequence life being really short by comparison). The amount of fuel that a star has, then, is directly proportional to its mass -- increase the mass, increase the amount of fuel (though if I remember right, most stars only burn ~10% of their hydrogen before they come to the end of their life).

So, the amount of energy given out by a star, its luminosity, is proportional to mass to the fourth power. This is basically the rate at which it burns its fuel -- fusing more hydrogen per second --> more energy given out...

The amount of fuel available is proportional to the mass

So, then, the lifetime of the star is determined by the amount of fuel it has, divided by the rate at which it burns them -- i.e. Mass / Mass^4
or
Lifetime proportional to 1 / M^3

So, if you increase the mass of a star by a factor of ten, you reduce its lifetime by a factor of 10^3 = 1000. Betelgeuse's mass is fairly well established, for a star, because it has a faint binary companion. We know it is around 19 times the mass of the Sun, so it'll live, roughly, 1/6900th as long. The estimated lifetime of the Sun is between 10 and 14 thousand million years -- so that means Betelgeuse, at first glance, should live for a couple of million years.

It's almost at the end of that time, as we can tell by the fact it's already a red giant. Even if we say that it is remarkably close to death (within 10,000 years of dying), the odds of it dying this year are pretty minimal...


As a side note to the informative summary, fusion is only energy positive up to iron. Fusing iron takes more energy than it puts out, so stars reaching the end of their life cycle become more and more iron rich.

This is why it's a common saying that anything heavier than iron is material from exploded stars. Only exploding (or collapsed/collapsing) stars produce the kinds of conditions needed to produce elements heavier than iron. So you can be sure the gold ring your wearing was most likely part of some supernova billions of years ago that fed into our proto-planetary disk that eventually became our solar system.

Pretty amazing when you think about it.
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876. Grothar 5:36 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Quoting Xyrus2000:


As a side note to the informative summary, fusion is only energy positive up to iron. Fusing iron takes more energy than it puts out, so stars reaching the end of their life cycle become more and more iron rich.

This is why it's a common saying that anything heavier than iron is material from exploded stars. Only exploding (or collapsed/collapsing) stars produce the kinds of conditions needed to produce elements heavier than iron. So you can be sure the gold ring your wearing was most likely part of some supernova billions of years ago that fed into our proto-planetary disk that eventually became our solar system.

Pretty amazing when you think about it.


Not mine. I got it at Zales Jewelry.
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877. Xyrus2000 5:36 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Quoting EnergyMoron:


had to report per taz an earlier post since i do have daughters who visit this site.

anyway...

IPCC to be defunded by congress in their pathetic attempt to reduce a 1.25 trillion dollar deficit by cutting .25 trillion.

expect serious fireworks


Err...I think you might be off by a couple of orders of magnitude. The total across all government branches for climate research (the last I checked) was under $2 billion, and almost all of that is for new satellites for the decadal missions. The IPCC report would only be a small part of that budget, unless they have their own budget allocation from congress, which I don't believe is the case.
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878. xcool 5:37 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    


very warm
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879. xcool 5:39 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
i've been so busy
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881. EYEStoSEA 5:40 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Wow....those veiws of Igor from the space station are just plain amazing...
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882. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:40 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
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885. Xyrus2000 5:42 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Quoting sunlinepr:
Are there any possibility of Neutrino Shower as cause of Earth’s end?

Since *most* neutrinos can pass all the way through the Earth with no interaction at all, even an increase in the neutrino density *probably* would have little to no effect. Right now, millions to billions are passing through your body, and untold *zillions* through the bulk of Earth itself.

Only in the event of a nearby supernova. Only supernovas produce so many neutrinos that it becomes deadly. In 1987, there was a supernova in the Large Magellanic Cloud that made all our neutrino detectors go off the scale.

Gazillions of neutrinos are zooming right through my body as we speak, and I feel just fine. Same with the Earth.



Netrinos are almost massless, weakly interacting particles. Before they had any noticeable impact on Earth, you would need an incredible amount of neutrinos. In fact, by the time you got enough neutrinos flowing through Earth to start affecting it, everything on Earth would already be dead (if not vaporized) as the event required to produce that kind of neutrino flux would most likely have at least radioactively (if not thermally) scoured the planet.
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886. sunlinepr 5:43 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Is GW going to alter Hurricane Seasons? Are we going to see hurricanes more frequent in off season months? (Feb/Mar/Apr??)

Global warming is affecting the seasons. Autumn and winter are coming later in many places; spring is coming earlier. If you look at a typical lake or maybe a stream in the far North it melts earlier in the spring and it freezes later in the fall. The very timing of the seasons is changing such that the food sources for some insects and birds are not in the places they are supposed to be when the migrations of these creatures arrive at the place where they are expected to be fed. And so, the very timing of nature and the seasons is being upset by global warming.

If GW is true, and seasons are going to be affected, Time will tell us the anwser....

No. of hurricanes per month Link
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887. sunlinepr 5:46 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Sleepy time for me...... enjoy....

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889. Grothar 5:48 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Quoting xcool:
i've been so busy


How's the baby doing?
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890. Xyrus2000 5:48 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Quoting Quadrantid:


If I remember right, that's an idea based on one explanation for gamma ray bursters -- which are one of nature's many poorly explained phenomena :) Essentially, when people started observing gamma rays, they noticed occasional bursts of them from random directions in space, which couldn't be associated with anything we knew. If I remember right, the first suggestions were that they were something very near the Earth (and hence had really tiny luminosities - they were bright because they were nearby). People have since come to the conclusion that, instead, they're incredibly distant (and hence among the most luminous things ever observed). One of the leading theories is that some supernovae (I think those caused by the merging/collision of two neutron stars, though again don't quote me on that - long time since I read about this) emit the great majority of their energy in a tight beam, out from their poles (such beaming isn't unprecedented -- it's something people have discussed with quasars, radio galaxies, and is also something people suggest is a mass loss route for stars as they form). If you're aligned with that beam, then you see a burst of radiation, when it reaches you -- the gamma ray burst. The idea is that the chance of such alignment with Earth is tiny, and the collision events are really rare, which is why even in a universe as large as ours, we see very few of these events (and those we've seen to date are right on the edge of the observable universe). If one happened nearby (say, in our galaxy), and was perfectly aligned, we'd have problems :) At least, that's the idea as best I remember it :) Whether it's widely accepted is another matter - it isn't really my field, so I couldn't tell you :)


The other events that can result in similar situations (though they are not "bursts" is if a rotating black hole is polar aligned with your solar system. Such black holes emit intense beams of x-ray radiation from the poles. If they happen to be aligned with your solar system and are either close enough or powerful enough, the can radioactively cleanse the whole system.

The chances of this happening are practically zero.
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892. xcool 5:50 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Grothar .good 1 year old now
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893. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:50 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
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894. EYEStoSEA 5:52 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Keeper, know u have special powers...Please keep all clouds off my area for a few days...
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896. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:55 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
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898. xcool 6:00 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
bye
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899. EYEStoSEA 6:01 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Quoting xcool:
bye


Good night...take care :)
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901. Grothar 6:03 AM GMT on January 21, 2011    
Quoting xcool:
Grothar .good 1 year old now


Whoa. Unbelievable. The years go by fast, enjoy them while you can. I had to miss most of their growing up years. Can't get it back. Glad to see your back too.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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