The ARkStorm: California's coming great deluge

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:04 PM GMT on January 28, 2011

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For thirty days and thirty nights the rain fell in unending torrents. By the end of the biblical deluge, rivers of water ten feet deep flowed through the streets of Sacramento, and an astounding 29.28 inches of rain had fallen on San Francisco. According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, in the Sierras, the moist flow of air from Hawaii--often called an "atmospheric river" or the "Pineapple Express"--hit the steeply sloping mountainsides and rose upwards. The air expanded and cooled, causing truly prodigious rains, with the mining town of Sonora receiving 8.5 feet of rain over a 2-month period. The resulting floods inundated California's Central Valley with a lake 300 miles long and 20 miles wide.

The above event occurred in January 1862, and similar extreme rain events have deluged in California seven times in the past 2,000 years--about once every 300 years. Great storms like the flood of 1862 will happen again. If the planet continues to warm, as expected, the odds of such an event will at least double by 2100, due to the extra moisture increased evaporation from the oceans will add to the air. A group of scientists, emergency managers, and policy makers gathered in Sacramento, California earlier this month to discuss how the state might respond to a repeat of the 1862 rain event--the ARkStorm Scenario. The "AR" stands for "Atmospheric River", the "k" for 1,000 (like a 1-in-1000 year event), and of course "ARkStorm" is meant to summon visions of biblical-scale deluge, similar to the great flood of 1862. The team's final report envisions the most expensive disaster in world history, with direct damages and loss of economic activity amounting to $725 billion.

"Atmospheric Rivers" was a term coined in the 1990s to describe plumes of moisture that ride up out of the subtropics into the mid-latitudes along the axis of a cold front. Traditional water vapor satellite imagery does not show these plumes very well, and it was only when microwave satellite imagery from polar orbiting satellites became available in the late 1990s that the full importance of these Atmospheric Rivers came to be revealed. Atmospheric Rivers account for a significant portion of California's cold season rainfall and snowfall, and an entire session was devoted to them at the December 2010 American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in San Francisco, the world's largest Earth Science meeting.


Figure 1. The total amount of rainfall one could get if all the moisture in the air were condensed and fell out as rain is called the Total Precipitable Water (TPW). Here, TPW values from microwave satellite measurements are plotted, and show a plume of very moist air connecting the subtropics near Hawaii with Southern California. TPW vales in excess of 20 mm (about 0.8 inches, blue and warmer colors) are "Atmospheric Rivers", and are often associated with heavy rainfall events capable of causing flooding. This Atmospheric River occurred on December 21, 2010, and brought very heavy flooding rains to Southern California. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

California's Delta Region levees at high risk of failure
Much of Central California's water supply and agricultural areas are protected by an antiquated and poorly maintained set of levees along the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers that are in serious danger of failure during an extreme flood or major earthquake. The 1,600 miles of levees protect 500,000 people, 2 million acres of farmland, and structures worth $47 billion. Of particular concern is the delta at the confluence of California's Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers, about 80 miles inland from San Francisco Bay. The Delta Region receives runoff from more than 40% of California, and is the hub of California's water supply system, supplying water to 25 million people and 3 million acres of farmland. Key transportation and communication lines cross the region. The Delta Region is home to dozens of islands with highly productive farms that have subsided to elevations as much as 25 feet below sea level. Jeffrey Mount, director of the Center for Integrated Watershed Science and Management at the University of California at Davis, said in a recent interview with MSNBC, "The chances of a catastrophic flood occurring in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta sometime in the next 50 years are about two out of three." He called Sacramento, which is only protected to a 1-in-80 year flood by its levees, "the most at-risk large metropolitan area in the country, with less than half the protection that New Orleans had. It is at extreme risk due to levee failure and subsidence."" The most serious catastrophe for the levees in the Delta Region would be a major earthquake occurring during the dry season. Such a quake would allow salt water to intrude from San Francisco Bay, shutting off the fresh water supply for millions of Californians for months. Collapse of the levees during the wet season would be less devastating, as water pressure from the relatively high flow rates of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers would keep salt water from intruding into the Delta Region. There are no good solutions to California's Delta Region water vulnerabilities, but a new $10 billion dollar canal that would route fresh water around the region is being proposed as a possible way Califoria could avoid losing its fresh water supply if a catatrophic failure of the Delta Region levees allowed salt water intrusion to occur.

A 2009 study by the California Department of Water Resources concluded:

The Delta Region as it exists today is unsustainable. Seismic risk, high water conditions, sea level rise and land subsidence threaten levee integrity. A seismic event is the single greatest risk to levee integrity in the Delta Region. If a major earthquake occurs, levees would fail and as many as 20 islands could be flooded simultaneously. This would result in economic costs and impacts of $15 billion or more. While earthquakes pose the greatest risk to Delta Region levees, winter storms and related high water conditions are the most common cause of levee failures in the region. Under business-as-usual practices, high water conditions could cause about 140 levee failures in the Delta over the next 100 years. Multiple island failures caused by high water would but could still be extensive and could cause approximately $8 billion or more in economic costs and impacts. Dry-weather levee failures [also called sunny-day events] unrelated to earthquakes, such as from slumping or seepage, will continue to occur in the Delta about once every seven years. Costs to repair a single island flooded as the result of a dry-weather levee failure are expected to exceed $50 million. The risk of flooding in the Delta Region will only increase with time if current management practices are not changed. By the year 2100, Delta levee failure risks due to high water conditions will increase by 800 percent. The risk of levee failure from a major earthquake is projected to increase by 93 percent during the same period.


The ARkStorm scenario and Great Flood of 1862 are discussed in much more detail by weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post.


Figure 2. Levee failure on the Upper Jones Tract in the Delta Region on June 4, 2004. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources. A 1997 flood in the Delta Region did $510 million damage, damaged or destroyed 32,000 homes and businesses, and left 120,000 homeless.

Wilma pounding New Zealand; Australia eyes two potential new tropical cyclones
With February nearly upon us, the traditional peak of the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season is here. Activity has picked up markedly this week, with the formation of the year's first two Category 4 tropical cyclones, Tropical Cyclone Wilma and Tropical Cyclone Bianca. Wilma passed over American Samoa as a strong tropical storm, and hit Tonga as a Category 3 storm, causing substantial damage to the islands, but no deaths or injuries. Wilma is currently pounding New Zealand's North Island with heavy rains and strong winds, and is the strongest tropical cyclone to affect that country in fourteen years, according to weatherwatch.co.nz. Tropical Cyclone Bianca is expected to skirt the west coast of Australia over the next few days and rapidly weaken, but could bring heavy rains to the coast near Perth when it makes landfall on Sunday as a tropical storm. Of much greater concern for Australia are two potential tropical cyclones that could hit the flood-ravaged state of Queensland next week. Both the European Center and GFS models predict that the remains of Tropical Cyclone Anthony will regenerate into a tropical storm and hit Queensland early next week. A second and potentially more powerful storm is forecast by the European model to form next week in the islands to the east of Australia, and threaten Queensland at the end of the week. The GFS model has backed off on its prediction of such a storm forming. If the cyclone were to form, it would be a serious blow for Queensland, which is struggling to recover from record floods. As reported in the latest Bureau of Meteorology climate statement and flood summary, the past four months (September - December) have been the rainiest such period in Queensland's history, and the resulting flooding disaster has been Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Bianca, the globe's second major tropical cyclone of 2011, as seen at 06:30 GMT on January 28, 2011 by NASA's Aqua satellite. Biana is expected to rapidly weaken and hit the Australian coast near Perth as a tropical storm on Sunday. Image credit: NASA.

Have a great weekend, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Yeah,,he was in Tromso,in Spring of 84.

Me,,I was drinking the Beer there and bartering with Laplanders.

Nice folk...

Reindeer pelts are warm on a Cot in a Tent.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Yeah, just got to that post. Sorry.

Maybe next time I'll just read to the end of the line and then go back. :P


That's OK. I do that all the time. I worked in an ice core laboratory in Tromso, Norway. There is actually someone on here right now who could probably verify that. LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27108
Quoting Grothar:


Obviously, you didn't see my post #462. I answered his question as asked. When he clarified it. I then answered the question as it was then presented. (with graphics)



Yeah, just got to that post. Sorry.

Maybe next time I'll just read to the end of the line and then go back. :P
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Carbon dioxide concentration (parts per million) for the last 800,000 years, measured from trapped bubbles of air in an Antarctic ice core. More information: Climate Change Impacts on the U.S.


800,000 Year Record of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Concentrations

Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting Xyrus2000:


That should be a qualified "no". How accurate do you mean? The various ice cores give reliable data back to about 800,000 years ago. They just recently finished drilling a new one in Antarctica that should give data even farther back once it is analyzed.

That combined with other proxies provide a good idea of what world CO2 levels were like. But it isn't going to give you that data at a high spatial or temporal resolution.

So if you're talking about record like we have now, then no. If you're talking about just scientifically verified data for past CO2 concentrations in general, then the answer is yes.


Obviously, you didn't see my post #462. I answered his question as asked. When he clarified it. I then answered the question as it was then presented. (with graphics)

P.S. I worked in an ice core laboratory in Tromso, Norway. As a matter of fact, there is someone on the blog right now who can probably verify that.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27108
..Take me to the River...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting Grothar:


No.


That should be a qualified "no". How accurate do you mean? The various ice cores give reliable data back to about 800,000 years ago. They just recently finished drilling a new one in Antarctica that should give data even farther back once it is analyzed.

That combined with other proxies provide a good idea of what world CO2 levels were like. But it isn't going to give you that data at a high spatial or temporal resolution.

So if you're talking about record like we have now, then no. If you're talking about just scientifically verified data for past CO2 concentrations in general, then the answer is yes.
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Anybody have any info on another snow event in the Northeast next week?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27108
496. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
12:00 PM FST January 30 2011
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 09F (998 hPa) located at 13.4S 170.1E is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots. Position POOR based on Multisatellite visible/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Gale Force Winds
================
Clockwise winds of 30-35 knots within 60 to 180 NM away from the center in the sector from northeast through east to southwest

Organization has improved past 3 hours. Convection remains persistent in the past 6 hours with deep convection to the north of low level circulation center. Primary band to the north trying to wrap around low level circulation center. System lies along a surface trough and under an upper diffluent region in a high sheared environment. Cyclonic Circulation extends to 500 HPA. System expected to be steered westward mainly by an easterly deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.50 LOG10 wrap yielding DT=2.5, PT=2.5, MET=2.5.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

Global models further develop this depression and maintains a west southwest track.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is HIGH.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 8:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46569
Quoting CybrTeddy:
As expected, La Nina anamolies slowly fading. Likely that 2011 will be a neutral year come peak season.

Defiantly could see a weak El Nino event next winter.


Neutral looks in the books


Or not. This La Nina comes at a time that is very similar to the 1950s, when we had multi-year La Ninas spanning 2-3 winters at a time. This could potentially be one of them. They always weaken starting mid-late January. A multi-year La Nina will not remain strong through the summer, but rather in a weaker state and then restrengthen the following winter.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
Nothing to see here. Move along.
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Wouldn't these guys be great on the blog. At least I can understand what they are saying.

img src="">
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27108
Quoting Skyepony:


Looking at that graph it's not really noticeably above the running average til 1900.

By 1875 air pollution laws were being put on the books. Smog shutting down whole cities with huge amounts of deaths occurring. Even back to the 16th century air quality was poor, big cities from Japan/ Philippines to Europe & even Scotland. The industral Revolution began in Britain in the 1700s.

Greenhouse gasses are cumulative. What we put up one year doesn't come down the next. Average time a bit of CO2 stays in the atmosphere is something like 150 years.


It doesn't matter where the "average" line gets crossed on the graph. What matters is the rate of change. The hockey stick spike begins around 1850 in the SST graph from the study.

Regarding the cumulative gases, that is also again about rate of change. Just as our annual emissions have a hockey-stick shape after 1950, the cumulative concentrations have also exponentially risen since that time. Before 1950 it was nothing compared to what it was afterwards. If you take the relative (against the long-term) rate of change in temperature for the last 60 years coupled with the rate of change in CO2, and then say that the same rate of change in temperature occurred 100 years before the CO2 spike when the rate of change in CO2 was astronomically smaller, then something doesn't fit. Either CO2 correlates well with the temperature or it doesn't. If the same kind of relative temperature hockey-spike distribution can occur at different times with CO2 emissions that are different by a few orders of magnitude, then something is not explained.

You cannot say that the 1850 hockey spike in Atlantic SST was caused by CO2 if the level of it in the atmosphere at that time was essentially "normal," and not rising at any kind of a significant rate compared to the rise that is blamed for the air temperature increase since 1950.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
As expected, La Nina anamolies slowly fading. Likely that 2011 will be a neutral year come peak season.

Defiantly could see a weak El Nino event next winter.


Neutral looks in the books
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
489. JRRP
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Quoting Patrap:
Well itsa all moot as were adding Megatons daily now.

Cuz, we have to make dem refrigerators,,we gotta move dem color Tv's


Global annual average temperature measured over land and oceans. Red bars indicate temperatures above and blue bars indicate temperatures below the 1901-2000 average temperature. The black line shows atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in parts per million.


Global average temperature is one of the most-cited indicators of global climate change, and shows an increase of approximately 1.4F since the early 20th Century.


The global surface temperature is based on air temperature data over land and sea-surface temperatures observed from ships, buoys and satellites. There is a clear long-term global warming trend, while each individual year does not always show a temperature increase relative to the previous year, and some years show greater changes than others. These year-to-year fluctuations in temperature are due to natural processes, such as the effects of El Ninos, La Ninas, and the eruption of large volcanoes. Notably, the 20 warmest years have all occurred since 1981, and the 10 warmest have all occurred in the past 12 years.



That graph seems to produce a 2C warming for a doubling in CO2 concentrations since pre-industrial levels, which does not sound unreasonable.
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Following the Groundhog Day storm, GFS 18z shows a cold pocket of surface temperatures below -30C (-22F) drifting down to parts of Southeastern Ontario, Southern Quebec, Upstate New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine between next Thursday evening and Friday morning. However, 850 mb temperatures barely dip below -20C, meaning that there is likely to be a strong temperature inversion present in some regions.
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Rut Row.

Magnitude 2.5 - MOUNT ST. HELENS AREA, WASHINGTON
2011 January 29 22:44:14 UTC

LINK
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485. Skyepony (Mod)
Freak Flooding isn't done.. Greece & it is widespread..

A state of emergency was declared Saturday afternoon in several towns on the islands of Rhodes and Kos following severe flooding caused by heavy rainfall throughout Friday. The state of emergency was declared in the towns of Lindos, Archaggelos, Afantos and Kallithea on Rhodes, and in the towns of Asfendoni, Pyli, Kardamaina, Antimacheia and Kefalo on Kos. The unprecedented rainfall, which was compounded by a hailstorm on Kos, caused flooding throughout both islands resulting in destruction to infrastructures, farm crops, shop merchandise and home appliances.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39093
483. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Levi32:
Thus, it would seem humans did not cause the spike in Atlantic SSTs in 1850.


Looking at that graph it's not really noticeably above the running average til 1900.

By 1875 air pollution laws were being put on the books. Smog shutting down whole cities with huge amounts of deaths occurring. Even back to the 16th century air quality was poor, big cities from Japan/ Philippines to Europe & even Scotland. The industral Revolution began in Britain in the 1700s.

Greenhouse gasses are cumulative. What we put up one year doesn't come down the next. Average time a bit of CO2 stays in the atmosphere is something like 150 years.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39093
Quoting Levi32:


It can't be said to be "moot" if it doesn't explain something that an important study says it does explain.

That sentence does not scan.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6147
Quoting Jedkins01:
Hey does anybody else have an illness here that acts both like a flu and a cold, that comes in waves, in where it seems to go away for a while and then comes back with a vengeance?

I am very resistant to most viruses. In fact I haven't gotten a virus that has made me throw up in many years. Most flu viruses I don't get and they are usually just achy rather than vomit related for me. Also I usually get over a virus in about 3 days. I eat great and always out to stay in top physical fitness.

However, I have now had this illness for over 2 weeks, it first behaved as cold virus that caused a lot of itchiness deep in the throat with a cough. Then it went away for a few days, then this Tuesday I came down with full-blown intense cold like symptoms, as well as flu symptoms in which I have not experienced in a very long time. Oddly enough, it went away late Wednesday into Thursday, I felt perfectly fine. However, as of yesterday, I now have intense symptomps of both the flu and the cold the come on an off in intense waves.

The reason posting this to see if anyone else has been experiencing what I have. I'm trying to figure out if its just some really weird virus or some sort of bacterial infection. My friends have have all been experiencing the same symptoms for the same amount of time.


I will go see my Doctor if I have to, I'm a little worried its some super-virus of some sort. I am someone who is hardly ever sick, and when I do get something, I overcome it really fast normally. Even the E-coli I got on a trip to Central America didn't hit me as hard as it did most people.


However, whatever this illness is, its not one to mess with at all. My friends have been hit even harder then me.


I know this comes late and others have offered their opinions and advice. But I saw your post and took note of it, since it is admittedly rather dramatic and troubling. So I wanted to add my two cents.

Bacterial infections rarely behave in the way you are describing your symptoms. Rather, they tend to persist and get steadily or slowly worse over time, eventually reaching the point where medical intervention is necessary.

Viruses, such as influenza for example, usually go through a cycle. And as with the bacterial infections, they do not usually "come and go" or feature repeated assaults of symptoms interspersed with periods of no symptoms. Unlike bacterial infections however, the human immune system can defeat most viruses and as a result, medical intervention is not usually necessary. Exceptions to this rule of thumb occur mainly with extraordinarily potent viruses of the type which have by now mostly been completely removed from the developed world (smallpox for one example). Some of these rare viruses can overwhelm the human body and can be fatal. But again, they don't normally alternate between being symptomatic and completely asymptomatic.

You mentioned that "(your) friends" were similarly afflicted but with even more severe affects than your own. What you did not mention was whether or not any or all of these friends share living quarters with you or perhaps are or have been engaged in activities whereby all of you could have been exposed to something at one time or over a period of time.

The reason I mention this is that the types of symptoms you are describing could result of exposure to powerful toxins of either a synthetic or organic nature. When one is continuously or periodically exposed to toxins, they can be repeatedly but intermittently stricken with the types of symptoms you describe, particularly if they are both gastrointestinal and upper respiratory in description.

If this were happening to me, I might want to examine my own living, working or other environment, such as a classroom building or maybe a laboratory. It is possible that there is something lurking there in either the air circulation system or elsewhere that may be at the route of the problems. Another possibility would have to do with food storage, preparation and/or consumption. Whatever it is, I offer good luck to you in conquering it and feeling better soon!

Just my two cents, FWIW. Hope it helps you some.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Say, you seem to be having a bit of trouble understanding proxy data vis--vis global warming. If you'd like, I can provide a list of remedial learning resources to help you catch up with modern science. It's really quite fascinating...


LOL, like those Yamal samples :) Gnite

Question K on instrument vs what you infer



The Yamal implosion
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
Quoting bappit:

Yeppers. Moot it is.


It can't be said to be "moot" if it doesn't explain something that an important study says it does explain.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
Quoting weatherboy1992:
Thank you for the article. Since it is detailed I will have to read it before responding.



Your quite welcome. BTW, that supplemental question was not directed at you. It was more of a rhetorical question for those discussing SST's from many centuries ago and inferring accurate global readings were available. Considering the AGW debate surrounds a 1 degree C amount of change over more than a century of some sense of non-proxy records :)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
If I may ask, how many calibrated sensors were in the Atlantic measuring SST's during the Little Ice Age or for that matter anywhere ?

Well, those little foram shells is one way.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6147
Quoting Patrap:
Well itsa all moot as were adding Megatons daily now.

Cuz, we have to make dem refrigerators,,we gotta move dem color Tv's

Yeppers. Moot it is.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6147
Quoting weatherboy1992:


Neither do I. It looks like a chain email someone faked and spread around.

Some cool articles posted today. Can't read hcubed's article. That's annoying.


Check out Amazon.com

No, Einstein did not write the book.

Yes, there is a book by that name.


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Quoting Skyepony:


I would think because they all have a life cycle, go where they should each season (this being the same for the next generation) & then die to settle in a layer in the bottom. Comparing like to like. I've had a lot of biology but not so much Marine Biology.


Wikipedia:

Because of their diversity, abundance, and complex morphology, fossil foraminiferal assemblages are useful for biostratigraphy, and can accurately give relative dates to rocks. The oil industry relies heavily on microfossils such as forams to find potential oil deposits.[19]

Calcareous fossil foraminifera are formed from elements found in the ancient seas they lived in. Thus they are very useful in paleoclimatology and paleoceanography. They can be used to reconstruct past climate by examining the stable isotope ratios of oxygen, and the history of the carbon cycle and oceanic productivity by examining the stable isotope ratios of carbon
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6147
Quoting weatherboy1992:


Neither do I. It looks like a chain email someone faked and spread around.

Some cool articles posted today. Can't read hcubed's article. That's annoying.



Here is the free available location for it :)

https://www.cfa.harvard.edu/~wsoon/HoloceneClimate+Optimum10-d/CleggHuFengShengetal10-6000yrSummerT Var-SouthCentralAlaska.pdf

If I may ask, how many calibrated sensors were in the Atlantic measuring SST's during the Little Ice Age or for that matter anywhere ?
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
Well itsa all moot as were adding Megatons daily now.

Cuz, we have to make dem refrigerators,,we gotta move dem color Tv's


Global annual average temperature measured over land and oceans. Red bars indicate temperatures above and blue bars indicate temperatures below the 1901-2000 average temperature. The black line shows atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in parts per million.


Global average temperature is one of the most-cited indicators of global climate change, and shows an increase of approximately 1.4F since the early 20th Century.


The global surface temperature is based on air temperature data over land and sea-surface temperatures observed from ships, buoys and satellites. There is a clear long-term global warming trend, while each individual year does not always show a temperature increase relative to the previous year, and some years show greater changes than others. These year-to-year fluctuations in temperature are due to natural processes, such as the effects of El Ninos, La Ninas, and the eruption of large volcanoes. Notably, the 20 warmest years have all occurred since 1981, and the 10 warmest have all occurred in the past 12 years.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Egypt moves to secure antiquities from looters
Published: Saturday, January 29, 2011, 3:07 PM Updated: Saturday, January 29, 2011, 3:25 PM
The Associated Press By The Associated Press


Would-be looters broke into Cairo's famed Egyptian Museum, ripping the heads off two mummies and damaging about 10 small artifacts before being caught and detained by army soldiers, Egypt's antiquities chief said Saturday.






Zahi Hawass said the vandals did not manage to steal any of the museum's antiquities, and that the prized collection was now safe and under military guard.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting Xandra:
A fading La Nina Link


They always start fading in intensity by late January. Whether it fully reverses into neutral or El Nino remains to be seen, though.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
A fading La Nina Link
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Thus, it would seem humans did not cause the spike in Atlantic SSTs in 1850.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
Quoting weatherboy1992:


I was thinking ice cores. But that wouldn't be as good as actual measurments from the time. Could establish trends though.


Then let me change my answer to yes.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27108
This graph shows coal's contribution to the emissions since 1800. I still don't see significant amounts until after 1900, which is all I've ever heard of. Significant 18th century emissions are completely new to me.



Marland, G., T.A. Boden, and R. J. Andres. 2003. "Global, Regional, and National CO2 Emissions." In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/emis/tre_glob.htm]
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
Quoting weatherboy1992:
Is there an accurate scientifically verified estimate of carbon dioxide concentrations in the air during the 1800s and the 1900s before the Keeling measurements started?


No.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27108
Quoting weatherboy1992:
Is there an accurate scientifically verified estimate of carbon dioxide concentrations in the air during the 1800s and the 1900s before the Keeling measurements started?


There is global carbon emission data back to 1750 from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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