The ARkStorm: California's coming great deluge
For thirty days and thirty nights the rain fell in unending torrents. By the end of the biblical deluge, rivers of water ten feet deep flowed through the streets of Sacramento, and an astounding 29.28 inches of rain had fallen on San Francisco. According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, in the Sierras, the moist flow of air from Hawaii--often called an "atmospheric river" or the "Pineapple Express"--hit the steeply sloping mountainsides and rose upwards. The air expanded and cooled, causing truly prodigious rains, with the mining town of Sonora receiving 8.5 feet of rain over a 2-month period. The resulting floods inundated California's Central Valley with a lake 300 miles long and 20 miles wide.
The above event occurred in January 1862, and similar extreme rain events have deluged in California seven times in the past 2,000 years--about once every 300 years. Great storms like the flood of 1862 will happen again. If the planet continues to warm, as expected, the odds of such an event will at least double by 2100, due to the extra moisture increased evaporation from the oceans will add to the air. A group of scientists, emergency managers, and policy makers gathered in Sacramento, California earlier this month to discuss how the state might respond to a repeat of the 1862 rain event--the ARkStorm Scenario. The "AR" stands for "Atmospheric River", the "k" for 1,000 (like a 1-in-1000 year event), and of course "ARkStorm" is meant to summon visions of biblical-scale deluge, similar to the great flood of 1862. The team's final report envisions the most expensive disaster in world history, with direct damages and loss of economic activity amounting to $725 billion.
"Atmospheric Rivers" was a term coined in the 1990s to describe plumes of moisture that ride up out of the subtropics into the mid-latitudes along the axis of a cold front. Traditional water vapor satellite imagery does not show these plumes very well, and it was only when microwave satellite imagery from polar orbiting satellites became available in the late 1990s that the full importance of these Atmospheric Rivers came to be revealed. Atmospheric Rivers account for a significant portion of California's cold season rainfall and snowfall, and an entire session was devoted to them at the December 2010 American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in San Francisco, the world's largest Earth Science meeting.
Figure 1. The total amount of rainfall one could get if all the moisture in the air were condensed and fell out as rain is called the Total Precipitable Water (TPW). Here, TPW values from microwave satellite measurements are plotted, and show a plume of very moist air connecting the subtropics near Hawaii with Southern California. TPW vales in excess of 20 mm (about 0.8 inches, blue and warmer colors) are "Atmospheric Rivers", and are often associated with heavy rainfall events capable of causing flooding. This Atmospheric River occurred on December 21, 2010, and brought very heavy flooding rains to Southern California. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.
California's Delta Region levees at high risk of failure
Much of Central California's water supply and agricultural areas are protected by an antiquated and poorly maintained set of levees along the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers that are in serious danger of failure during an extreme flood or major earthquake. The 1,600 miles of levees protect 500,000 people, 2 million acres of farmland, and structures worth $47 billion. Of particular concern is the delta at the confluence of California's Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers, about 80 miles inland from San Francisco Bay. The Delta Region receives runoff from more than 40% of California, and is the hub of California's water supply system, supplying water to 25 million people and 3 million acres of farmland. Key transportation and communication lines cross the region. The Delta Region is home to dozens of islands with highly productive farms that have subsided to elevations as much as 25 feet below sea level. Jeffrey Mount, director of the Center for Integrated Watershed Science and Management at the University of California at Davis, said in a recent interview with MSNBC, "The chances of a catastrophic flood occurring in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta sometime in the next 50 years are about two out of three." He called Sacramento, which is only protected to a 1-in-80 year flood by its levees, "the most at-risk large metropolitan area in the country, with less than half the protection that New Orleans had. It is at extreme risk due to levee failure and subsidence."" The most serious catastrophe for the levees in the Delta Region would be a major earthquake occurring during the dry season. Such a quake would allow salt water to intrude from San Francisco Bay, shutting off the fresh water supply for millions of Californians for months. Collapse of the levees during the wet season would be less devastating, as water pressure from the relatively high flow rates of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers would keep salt water from intruding into the Delta Region. There are no good solutions to California's Delta Region water vulnerabilities, but a new $10 billion dollar canal that would route fresh water around the region is being proposed as a possible way Califoria could avoid losing its fresh water supply if a catatrophic failure of the Delta Region levees allowed salt water intrusion to occur.
A 2009 study by the California Department of Water Resources concluded:
The Delta Region as it exists today is unsustainable. Seismic risk, high water conditions, sea level rise and land subsidence threaten levee integrity. A seismic event is the single greatest risk to levee integrity in the Delta Region. If a major earthquake occurs, levees would fail and as many as 20 islands could be flooded simultaneously. This would result in economic costs and impacts of $15 billion or more. While earthquakes pose the greatest risk to Delta Region levees, winter storms and related high water conditions are the most common cause of levee failures in the region. Under business-as-usual practices, high water conditions could cause about 140 levee failures in the Delta over the next 100 years. Multiple island failures caused by high water would but could still be extensive and could cause approximately $8 billion or more in economic costs and impacts. Dry-weather levee failures [also called sunny-day events] unrelated to earthquakes, such as from slumping or seepage, will continue to occur in the Delta about once every seven years. Costs to repair a single island flooded as the result of a dry-weather levee failure are expected to exceed $50 million. The risk of flooding in the Delta Region will only increase with time if current management practices are not changed. By the year 2100, Delta levee failure risks due to high water conditions will increase by 800 percent. The risk of levee failure from a major earthquake is projected to increase by 93 percent during the same period.
The ARkStorm scenario and Great Flood of 1862 are discussed in much more detail by weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post.
Figure 2. Levee failure on the Upper Jones Tract in the Delta Region on June 4, 2004. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources. A 1997 flood in the Delta Region did $510 million damage, damaged or destroyed 32,000 homes and businesses, and left 120,000 homeless.
Wilma pounding New Zealand; Australia eyes two potential new tropical cyclones
With February nearly upon us, the traditional peak of the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season is here. Activity has picked up markedly this week, with the formation of the year's first two Category 4 tropical cyclones, Tropical Cyclone Wilma and Tropical Cyclone Bianca. Wilma passed over American Samoa as a strong tropical storm, and hit Tonga as a Category 3 storm, causing substantial damage to the islands, but no deaths or injuries. Wilma is currently pounding New Zealand's North Island with heavy rains and strong winds, and is the strongest tropical cyclone to affect that country in fourteen years, according to weatherwatch.co.nz. Tropical Cyclone Bianca is expected to skirt the west coast of Australia over the next few days and rapidly weaken, but could bring heavy rains to the coast near Perth when it makes landfall on Sunday as a tropical storm. Of much greater concern for Australia are two potential tropical cyclones that could hit the flood-ravaged state of Queensland next week. Both the European Center and GFS models predict that the remains of Tropical Cyclone Anthony will regenerate into a tropical storm and hit Queensland early next week. A second and potentially more powerful storm is forecast by the European model to form next week in the islands to the east of Australia, and threaten Queensland at the end of the week. The GFS model has backed off on its prediction of such a storm forming. If the cyclone were to form, it would be a serious blow for Queensland, which is struggling to recover from record floods. As reported in the latest Bureau of Meteorology climate statement and flood summary, the past four months (September - December) have been the rainiest such period in Queensland's history, and the resulting flooding disaster has been Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history.
Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Bianca, the globe's second major tropical cyclone of 2011, as seen at 06:30 GMT on January 28, 2011 by NASA's Aqua satellite. Biana is expected to rapidly weaken and hit the Australian coast near Perth as a tropical storm on Sunday. Image credit: NASA.
Have a great weekend, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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ScienceDaily (Jan. 28, 2011) %u2014 The temperatures of North Atlantic Ocean water flowing north into the Arctic Ocean adjacent to Greenland -- the warmest water in at least 2,000 years -- are likely related to the amplification of global warming in the Arctic, says a new international study involving the University of Colorado Boulder.
Led by Robert Spielhagen of the Academy of Sciences, Humanities and Literature in Mainz, Germany, the study showed that water from the Fram Strait that runs between Greenland and Svalbard -- an archipelago constituting the northernmost part of Norway -- has warmed roughly 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit in the past century. The Fram Strait water temperatures today are about 2.5 degrees F warmer than during the Medieval Warm Period, which heated the North Atlantic from roughly 900 to 1300 and affected the climate in Northern Europe and northern North America.
The team believes that the rapid warming of the Arctic and recent decrease in Arctic sea ice extent are tied to the enhanced heat transfer from the North Atlantic Ocean, said Spielhagen. According to CU-Boulder's National Snow and Ice Data Center, the total loss of Arctic sea ice extent from 1979 to 2009 was an area larger than the state of Alaska, and some scientists there believe the Arctic will become ice-free during the summers within the next several decades.
Link
Well, I have over 200 relatives in Australia and a number of friends as well. Aussie, who comes on here actually lives near a few of them. I have been in touch with a number of them since all of the disasters have been hitting. The Aussies are tough people and quite adept at handling these storms.
Birds scare me...especially what happened to my elementary school teacher, Ms. Pleshette
That makes 3 times!
A wild week is in store for the area....with multipe weather concerns.
Major arctic air outbreak will arrive Tuesday with a very cold air mass...temperatures will be the coldest of the winter season so far.
Models now in fair agreement on a potential winter storm event for coastal TX Thursday and Friday.
Arctic Outbreak:
Powerful arctic cold front is roaring down the plains this evening with 1050mb arctic high building over Canada NW of Montana ridging into the central plains. Strong arctic boundary will arrive into SE TX early Tuesday morning and push off the coast by mid afternoon. After highs in the 70's on Monday...it is downhill fast from that point as a bitter cold air mass invades from the north. Expect temperatures to fall from the 60's Tuesday morning into the 30's by mid afternoon with the freezing line reaching I-10 by early evening. Numerous showers and thunderstorms along the frontal boundary will end by early afternoon prior to the onset of freezing temperatures. Some residual moisture on overpasses could freeze by mid evening mainly N of HWY 105 as temperatures fall into the upper 20's. Very strong NW winds of 15-25mph will drive wind chills into the low teens and single digits across the region by Wednesday morning. Latest guidance shows little warming on Wednesday or Thursday and some lcoations may not reach freezing.
Large arctic dome locks in place across the state Wed-Sat with very cold air mass slow to modify. Expect hard freezes each night and daytime temperatures to struggle to only reach the mid to upper 30's if that.
Winter Storm Potential:
As hinted at a few times over the past few days has been the threat for energy to hang back to the SW of TX and attempt to eject moisture into the arctic air mass. Models had trended toward a much drier post frontal air mass, until the last two runs 00Z last night and 12Z this morning. Both the GFS and ECMWF have come in much wetter as an upper low develops in the base of the mean trough and ejects toward SW TX Thursday night/Friday. Models now prog isentropic lift over the cold air mass with widespread development of precipitation. Cold arctic air mass will be deeply entrenched across the entire state with the vertical column below freezing from the surface upward. Will go with P-type of mainly SN (snow) although some locations could see IP (sleet) for all locations including the coastal locations, the coastal bend, and parts of S TX.
Way too soon to start talking any kind of accumulations as there are some questions as to moisture amounts, but you do not need a lot of moisture to produce snow. If current model runs were to pan out, we could be looking at some pretty decent totals with little melting on the frozen ground from hours below freezing prior to the onset of the event.
As an aside the upper air pattern looks similar to the historic Christmas Eve snowstorm of 2004, but with a colder air mass and more entrenched arctic high. This fact alone gives me some concern as to question the potential amounts of moisture avialable as this air mass may be too cold to support much moisture.
Preparations:
Residents across the region should use Monday to prepare for an extended period of very cold temperatures. Tropical vegetation should be covered and protected along with exposed outside pipes and sprinkler systems. Given an extended period of wind chills in the teens and single digits preparations for exposed livestock should be made.
Toward the end fo the week the threat could transition toward significant travel impacts should a winter storm event verify
ScienceDaily (Jan. 30, 2011) — A powerful new painkiller, which was developed on the basis of the research conducted at Stony Brook University (New York) and with no apparent side effects or addictive qualities, may now be only a year or two from the consumer market.
"This offers a major paradigm shift in the control of pain," declares Dr. Simon Halegoua, Professor of Neurobiology & Behavior at Stony Brook who in the 1990s, teamed up with fellow Stony Brook professors Dr. Gail Mandel and Dr. Paul Brehm to identify a novel sodium ion channel involved in the transmission of pain. They predicted that a drug aimed at blocking this channel, PN1/Nav 1.7, would control pain. PN1 (Peripheral Neuron 1), is uniquely expressed in peripheral nerves such as those involved in pain transduction.
"When a patient is given an opiate like morphine, pain signals are still transmitted from sensory nerves to the central nervous system. Morphine action throughout the brain reduces and alters pain perception, but it also impairs judgement and results in drug dependence," explains Halegoua, also director of the Center for Nervous System Disorders at Stony Brook University. "With drugs targeting the PN1/Nav1.7 sodium ion channel, the pain signals would not be transmitted, even by the sensory nerves. And since the central nervous system is taken out of the equation, there would be no side effects and no addictive qualities."
The potential for such drugs is enormous -- the reduction or elimination of pain for patients with cancer, arthritis, migraine headaches, muscle pain, pain from burns, and pain from other debilitating diseases.
More....Link
That map is kind of old isn't it?
I couldn't find a more recent one very easily. The Australian government apparently hasn't redone their population density statistics for the 2000-2009 decade.
CLIMOD
# Single station climate summaries
* Temperature, precipitation and snowfall observations, normals and records for a day - Details
* Daily temperature, precipitation and snowfall data for a month - Details
* Daily Lister - Details
* Daily degree day listing - Details
* Monthly time series summary - Details
* Precipitation summary and historical context - Details
* Monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation distributions - Details
* Activity Planner (one day for a period of years) - Details
* Frost Statistics (time series of first and last temperature occurrences) - Details
* Frost Summary (distribution of first and last freeze dates) - Details
* Seasonal Ranking for a Period of Years - Details
* 1971-2000 Monthly Temperature, Precipitation and Degree Day Normals - Details
Wow, where did you find that? I looked all over. It even gives the breakdowns by section.
If you'll look at the chart again, you'll see two marks dilineating the lowest and highest estimates for CO2 concentration by 2100, so only one is the "worst case scenario", of course; the lower number is the best case. And, yes, I believe that an annual increase of between 3.1 and 6.8 ppm is entirely possible--and, in fact, the high end of those estimates is probably more likely. For instance, northern permafrost is beginning to thaw, and this permafrost holds immense amounts of CO2, far more than the oceans can readily absorb. As it's released into the atmosphere, things will likely heat up even faster, causing even more melting, which will lead to more CO2 being releasing, which leads to more heating--all in a fairly efficient feedback mechanism. And that's just one of them.
Wow... can I take this as an agree to disgagree... even if it is only with me? LOL
On a serious note, I hate to be seen as some kind of blog censor. OTOH, I'm noting that today, at least, Dr. Masters IS actually talking about Southern Hemisphere tropical weather, which actually does have some interest to those of us who come here in the winter so we can blog about the Southern hemisphere summer. It would be great if we could get a bit more of tropical wx related discussion while the height of their season is on. It's not like there isn't all the rest of March and most of April to continue the "other" off-season topic. I don't think that's too much to ask, but if you disagree - I can agree to disagree.
On the topic of ignoring, I have absolutely no intention of ignoring, or Ignoring, EITHER of you. I think you both bring a great deal to our discussion on the blog, and I personally have benefitted from what you have posted - too much to put either of u on ignore. Besides, I don't have time for the petty personality use of the Ignore button, and just about everything else that's horrible on the blog gets dealt with by Admin sooner or later.
But can't we talk about rainfall amounts from Anthony, or potential landfalls on the OZ coast during the next few days? It might actually be interesting!
Don't look at me I haven't been there in years.
Does anybody remember these guys?
Provisional IRA
Cyclone Yasi poses 'bigger threat' to Qld
Monday January 31, 2011 - 12:00 EDT
Emergency Management Queensland (EMQ), police and weather officials are meeting across the state's far north today to discuss the possible threat of Tropical Cyclone Yasi.
The category one system is north-west of Vanuatu, but is expected to intensify before crossing the Queensland coast on Wednesday or Thursday.
Authorities say the massive cyclone could be as intense as Cyclone Larry, which devastated parts of far north Queensland in 2006.
The weather bureau predicts Cyclone Yasi's eye will cross the coast near Townsville, but it says the system is so large it could impact communities 500 kilometres away.
Senior forecaster Jim Davidson says Cyclone Yasi is a big threat.
"It's probably going to be in the category three to category four range - wind gusts up to 200 to 260 [kilometres per hour]," he said.
Mr Davidson is also warning there could be a large storm tide as it crosses the coast either late on Wednesday or early on Thursday.
It will be the second cyclone to hit Queensland this week after Cyclone Anthony crossed the state's north coast near Bowen last night, south of Townsville, last night.
Cyclone Anthony brought down down trees and caused some minor damage to homes in north Queensland.
It has now been downgraded to a tropical low, heading inland.
Weather bureau spokesman Rick Threlfall says Cyclone Yasi is a large system and is developing quickly
"It's about 2,000 kilometres still east north-east of Bowen, so it's still a long way off, but it's moving west quite quickly," he said.
"We're keeping an eye on that - currently Fiji is monitoring that system and they're looking at bringing that towards the Queensland coast sometime on Wednesday night on on Thursday morning as a significant system.
"It's certainly going to move inland into Queensland during the course of the later part of next week, with fairly widespread rain areas and heavy rain within that as well, so the flooding potential is there.
"Exactly where at this stage is just a bit too difficult to say."
Superintendent Brian Connors from the Cairns Disaster Coordination Centre says the cyclone is very concerning.
"It's better to be over-prepared than under-prepared is the simplest way to put it," he said.
"We are treating it very seriously although there is not defined location that it will direct the impact on at this point in time, but it's best to go through those preparations nice and early."
Queensland Transport Minister Rachel Nolan says coal ports and the rail system avoided damage from Cyclone Anthony, but Yasi is a bigger threat.
"There is some possibility of getting coal ships into Abbot Point today in order to commence loading before they would have to go out again in the next couple of days for the bigger cyclone to come," he said.
"It hasn't been completely decided if that's possible, but there is an aim to do that."
Emergency Management Queensland (EMQ) says full cyclone preparations should be put in place across north Queensland.
EMQ spokesman Wayne Coutts says it is important people are prepared.
"People should consider to be self-sufficient in their home after the impact of such an event after about 72 hours," he said.
"Consider what you might do if you don't have power for about that long, consider what you might do if there's no water, if you're unable to go to the shops."
Independent state MP Rob Messenger says property owners should be allowed to clear trees before the next cyclone hits.
Mr Messenger says the vegetation management laws provide an exemption when there is a risk of serious personal injury, or damage to infrastructure.
- Reporting by Kerrin Binnie, Chris O'Brien and Kristy Sexton-McGrath
- ABC
This explains it.
Yes, why do you ask?
Anthony at landfall... more or less.
Are you inferring a linear relationship with temps? Ya might want to check that.
Paranoia does not help any of us!
Having looked back at your posts, I now question your ability to differentiate.. Just sayin, you now have exhibited a definitive pattern for further evaluation.
Perhaps you should stop, drop, and roll?
Jan temps, will more than likely be below the running 30 year SAT (not the BS GISS) average.
No kidding...........
What was going on in Egypt reminded me of it.
VIDEO: Nature's freak double act
This book seems to take itself more seriously, How to Win Any Argument, which is not necessarily a good thing. After all, how can you win any argument? Whatever, only 9 copies available at the moment but more on the way!
Some more advice here on the same topic. Quite cynical--but then again the objective is to win any argument.
Probably some more stuff out on the internets that people on here might use.
Oh. But I don't think there are too many Irish Catholics in Egypt and they have already thrown the British out. How you doing canes??
LOL, nothing at all, that's right :)
Latest four hour loop shows rapid development of Yasi along the right side of the image....
I'm doing ok, and you?
Sydney
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