Potentially historic winter storm poised to impact 100 million Americans
A huge and potentially historic winter storm is taking shape over the Southern Plains today. By the time the storm exits New England on Wednesday night, as many as 50 million Americans may see heavy snows of at least 6 inches or dangerous ice accumulations of 1/4" or more from the massive storm, and 100 million will be affected by the storm. A potent jet stream with strong winds will dive southwards over the central U.S. today, allowing a cold Arctic airmass to spill southwards out of Canada. In front of this cold air, a flow of very warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will surge northwards, providing copious moisture to fuel snowfall amounts that will likely approach two feet across portions of Iowa and Illinois on Tuesday. The storm could be Chicago's biggest blizzard since January 1999, when a storm dumped 21.6" of snow. Accompanying the heavy snow on Tuesday will be strong winds gusting to 40 mph in Northern Illinois and Northwest Indiana, and a blizzard watch is posted for Chicago. Strong winds in Chicago are expected to generate 14 - 18 feet waves on Lake Michigan, with occasional waves up to 25 feet. A significant coastal flooding event is possible for Chicago, with beach erosion and flooding along Lake Shore Drive. Many major cities will likely receive over 8 inches of snow from the storm, including Kansas City, St. Louis, and Detroit. Perhaps of greater concern is the potential for a major ice storm along a swath from Northwest Oklahoma to Massachusetts. Widespread freezing rain is expected to bring over 1/4" of ice to many major cities, including St. Louis, Indianapolis, Columbus, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. Some regions could see up to an inch of ice, and widespread power outages due to toppled power lines are likely for millions of people. Damages exceeding $1 billions are possible from this ice storm. In addition, the storm's powerful cold front will bring the potential for severe thunderstorms to the deep South. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center is giving Louisiana and surrounding states a "slight risk" of severe weather on Tuesday, and severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are likely Tuesday afternoon in this region.
Figure 1. Probability of receiving at least 1/4" of ice for the 24 hours ending at 7am EST on Wed Feb 2, 2011. Image credit: NOAA.
Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Yasi headed for Australia's flooded Queensland
With February nearly upon us, the traditional peak of the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season is here, and the waters surrounding Australia have been exceptionally active over the past week. We had the year's first two Category 4 tropical cyclones last week, Tropical Cyclone Wilma and Tropical Cyclone Bianca. Wilma passed over American Samoa as a strong tropical storm, and hit Tonga as a Category 3 storm, causing substantial damage to the islands, but no deaths or injuries. Wilma brushed New Zealand, bringing flooding and landslides to the North Island, and was the strongest tropical cyclone to affect that country in fourteen years, according to weatherwatch.co.nz. Tropical Cyclone Bianca skirted the west coast of Australia and dissipated before making landfall. Tropical Cyclone Anthony hit flood-ravaged Queensland, Australia, over the weekend, as a weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds. Fortunately, Anthony dropped only modest amounts of rain, and no new flooding disaster occurred in Queensland, which is struggling to recover from record floods. As reported in the latest Australian Bureau of Meteorology climate statement and flood summary, the past four months (September - December) have been the rainiest such period in Queensland's history, and the resulting flooding disaster has been Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history.
Queensland is in serious danger of renewed extreme flooding this week from Tropical Cyclone Yasi. Yasi has intensified to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, and is undergoing a period of rapid intensification that is expected to take it to Category 4 strength. Yasi is expected to hit Queensland on Wednesday, probably as a major Category 3 or stronger storm. In addition the storm's damaging winds and storm surge, Yasi will bring torrential rains. The GFS model is predicting that Yasi will dump 5 - 10 inches of rain over a large swath of Queensland, which would likely cause destructive flooding.
One positive note: the European Center model was remarkably accurate predicting the formation of Yasi over a week in advance, so Queensland has had plenty of time to prepare for the arrival of the storm.
Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 23:20 GMT on January 30, 2011. At the time, Yasi was a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Sorry NRAamy...Something just struck my female ego
I Am Free, My Word Is Free
Bob once wrote,, .."the Times dey are a changing"
Dislike the Koch Brothers on Facebook
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AND A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THE DENSE FOG PLEASE REFER TO THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY PRODUCT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA. THE MAIN TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA BUT THE AREA OF GREATEST
RISK WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PIERRE PART
TO POPLARVILLE. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE.
A VERY STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AMPLE SHEAR...MOISTURE
AND FORCING TO WORK WITH BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR
IN COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS. ACROSS THE AREA OF HIGHEST
RISK...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND EVEN A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. STRONG WINDS AND
TORNADOES WILL BE MUCH LESS LIKELY DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5
INCHES. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE...
THIS STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE
COASTAL WATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF
THE GULF WATERS DURING THIS TIME AND SEAS COULD REACH 8 FEET IN
THE OUTER WATERS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY...FEBRUARY 1ST.
Mixin' up the medicine
I'm on the pavement
Thinkin' bout the government
But on a mo serious immediate note,tomorrow looks nasty,
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
432 am CST Monday Jan 31 2011
..very active forecast in store for the bi-state region...
Tuesday and Tuesday night...Monday night the Pacific northwest energy we have been
concerned about will begin to move into the Southern Plains while a surface
low develops in deep S Texas. As the disturbance continues to push off
to the east and then NE the short wave will take on a negative tilt. At the
same time our surface low will move from southern Texas early Tuesday morning to the NE
into the MO Boot-Heel by early Tuesday evn. It will also deepen
considerably with surface pressures below 1005mb possible in our northwest Tuesday
afternoon. By late Tuesday night the short wave and surface low will become stacked east
of stl but the cold front will quickly move through the region. It
should enter the County Warning Area no later than early afternoon move into the Gulf and
coastal MS early Tuesday evn and by sunrise Wednesday morning should be well
into the Gulf.
As for what we can expect...moisture is not going to be a problem
with this system. Dewpoints will increase into the lower to possibly
middle 60s...800 mb Theta-E air will approach 330k...and precipitable waters will could top
out near 1.75(this is 230% of normal).
That alone with the front
should get widespread rain and thus we have gone with 90-100% probability of precipitation
over all of the land areas Tuesday afternoon. As for the severe aspect...not
much has changed from last evn/S and yesterday/S forecast...if anything
could be a little better chance of seeing a few severe storms. There
are a ton of positives...dynamically things are sufficient as a
negative titled short wave moves through the Lower/Middle MS valley. Although
the bulk of the forcing will remain mostly north of the region. That
said we will still see a 4-5dm hght fall at 500 mb. We will also move
under the rrq of a 160kt jet. Synpotically things are quiet
favorable as the track of the surface low...the surface pressures we will
see...and the 500 mb hghts along with 1000-500mb thickness values are all
in the favorable range. Last and again as is always the case in the
cool season the kinematic field is very favorable....mainly in the
afternoon hours. The deepening surface low keep surface winds out of the southeast Tuesday
afternoon. Winds will then veer all the way to 700 mb and drastically
increase in speed. The ll jet will range from 55-65kts out of the
S-SSW...700 mb winds will be out of the SW at 60-70kts...and 500 mb winds
out of the SW-west-southwest around 75-85 kts. Now the issues come up and that
is instability and marine influences. Shear is quite impressive with
0-3km helicities of 600-750 m2/s2 and 0-6km bulk shear around 70-80
kts. As is always it doesn/T take much to really kill severe weather
and if there is a failure Mode it is the thermodynamic field along
with a very stable marine layer. Overall instability is quite
marginal but there will be a little to work with. Showatlers of -1
to -3 will be in place and MLCAPES could approach 500 j/kg...
especially if we can get any breaks in the clouds early in the day.
That said with the lack of instability to work with widespread severe
weather looks unlikely but with the amount of forcing we will have
and the wind field in place we will be able to overcome the lack of
instability and a few severe storms should be able to develop. The
other issue is how far does the marine layer push inland. Wherever
this is will be key in what type of severe weather we can expect. In
the marine layer...that stable layer will drastically Hurt the risk
of damaging winds and tornadoes but north of it all modes of severe
weather will be possible. At this time the thinking is still the
northwestern half of the County Warning Area to see the worst of the severe weather while the
coasts and southshore mainly have more of a hail and heavy rain
threat.
Yeah I sit right on that ice snow line right now. Here we are looking at a inch of ice the way things currently look. Meanwhile, just a mere 25-30 miles or so to my north and northwest, a foot or more of snow. Needless to say, I'd like about a 50 or more mile trek south for the low, much rather have to deal with snow.
why no levees? I mean, I understand the ones we have are crap..... but no defenses at all seems a bit.... um...... reckless.....
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
Time of Latest Image: 201101311832
Thanks for that one.
Tropical Cyclone Advice #4
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI (14U)
5:00 AM EST February 1 2011
=========================================
At 4:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category Three (960 hPa) located 13.6S 158.4E, or 1390 km east northeast of Townsville and 1290 km northeast of Mackay has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 22 knots.
Hurricane Force Winds
======================
Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center in southern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center in southern quadrant
140 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS
The cyclone is expected to continue intensifying as it moves west over the Coral Sea.
Damaging winds are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Yeppoon Wednesday morning, extending to adjacent inland parts east of Richmond on Wednesday afternoon.
Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Cooktown to Yeppoon, and adjacent inland areas.
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for Cape Melville to Cooktown, and adjacent inland areas east of Richmond.
Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.3S 154.9E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 15.4S 151.5E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 17.5S 145.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 19.8S 139.6E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
Additional Information
=======================
Center embedded within White to give DT 5.0. MET 5.0 with PAT 5.0. FT based on DT. Improved organization with rapid development during last 6 to 12 hours. Expect system to continue intensifying within favorable environment of low shear and good upper outflow.
The next tropical cyclone advice on Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC..
Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Kinetic Energy and Intensity
Digital Dvorak
Rainbow Channel
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Johnny's in the basement
Mixin' up the medicine
I'm on the pavement
Thinkin' bout the government
Im a Big Bob fan..
But on a mo serious immediate note,tomorrow looks nasty,
Guess you decide when to have fun or not
Amazing. Simply amazing...
In our part of the world, its not the lines which come down, its masts and towers which collapse. If the lines are broken it is generally becuse of trees falling.
Unfortunately, it's dawning on some slower than on others. There's a whole lot of stupid out there in the world, and you never know where and when it's going to flare up. :-\
Hey, good luck with your crusade! Let us know how it's going, would you? ;-)
..Lighten up Francis comes to mind,,or was it Francine ?
LOL
hi Nea!!
He Lives in Sydney way South of Queensland by 1000 miles or so.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=48892
Fort Worth actually said the same thing in a discussion yesterday:
FINALLY WE HAVE BEEN INTERNALLY DISCUSSING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SYSTEM BY NEXT WEEKEND FOR A COUPLE DAYS NOW. BASICALLY
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LEAVES AN UPPER LOW AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING FLASHES OF BRINGING
THIS LOW THROUGH IN TACT FRI-SUN. MOST HAVE NOW SETTLED ON
BRINGING THIS THROUGH IN THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME NOW...BUT FEW ARE
VERY BULLISH WITH MOISTURE PROFILES. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THE
CHRISTMAS DEC 2004 SNOWSTORM IN SOUTH TEXAS...AND MODELS SHOWED
THAT LOW HAVING LITTLE MOISTURE TOO UNTIL IT WAS TOO LATE. EITHER
WAY WE ARE CLOSELY WATCHING THIS SYSTEM TO SEE WHERE IT TRACKS...
AND BELIEVE IF THE 500 MB PATTERN VERIFIES LIKE THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS
SHOW...IT WILL FIND THE MOISTURE. HAVE INTRODUCED 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS.
Forecast soundings look quite supportive.
National Weather Service New Orleans la
432 am CST Monday Jan 31 2011
..very active forecast in store for the bi-state region...
As for what we can expect...moisture is not going to be a problem
with this system. Dewpoints will increase into the lower to possibly
middle 60s...800 mb Theta-E air will approach 330k...and precipitable waters will could top
out near 1.75 (this is 230% of normal).
Schweeeet.
Not tough, just typical
Must be OK to play now.....Loved the movie Stripes
#106
Maximum Sustained Winds: 105mph
Pressure: 956mb
Position: 14.1S/158.5E
Not only that, but the good Dr. has actually
mentioned we have a extremely cold winter too!
I'm glad to see the data has even arrived here.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41348118/ns/weather/?GT1=43001
Viewing: 101 - 151
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