Potentially historic winter storm poised to impact 100 million Americans
A huge and potentially historic winter storm is taking shape over the Southern Plains today. By the time the storm exits New England on Wednesday night, as many as 50 million Americans may see heavy snows of at least 6 inches or dangerous ice accumulations of 1/4" or more from the massive storm, and 100 million will be affected by the storm. A potent jet stream with strong winds will dive southwards over the central U.S. today, allowing a cold Arctic airmass to spill southwards out of Canada. In front of this cold air, a flow of very warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will surge northwards, providing copious moisture to fuel snowfall amounts that will likely approach two feet across portions of Iowa and Illinois on Tuesday. The storm could be Chicago's biggest blizzard since January 1999, when a storm dumped 21.6" of snow. Accompanying the heavy snow on Tuesday will be strong winds gusting to 40 mph in Northern Illinois and Northwest Indiana, and a blizzard watch is posted for Chicago. Strong winds in Chicago are expected to generate 14 - 18 feet waves on Lake Michigan, with occasional waves up to 25 feet. A significant coastal flooding event is possible for Chicago, with beach erosion and flooding along Lake Shore Drive. Many major cities will likely receive over 8 inches of snow from the storm, including Kansas City, St. Louis, and Detroit. Perhaps of greater concern is the potential for a major ice storm along a swath from Northwest Oklahoma to Massachusetts. Widespread freezing rain is expected to bring over 1/4" of ice to many major cities, including St. Louis, Indianapolis, Columbus, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. Some regions could see up to an inch of ice, and widespread power outages due to toppled power lines are likely for millions of people. Damages exceeding $1 billions are possible from this ice storm. In addition, the storm's powerful cold front will bring the potential for severe thunderstorms to the deep South. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center is giving Louisiana and surrounding states a "slight risk" of severe weather on Tuesday, and severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are likely Tuesday afternoon in this region.
Figure 1. Probability of receiving at least 1/4" of ice for the 24 hours ending at 7am EST on Wed Feb 2, 2011. Image credit: NOAA.
Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Yasi headed for Australia's flooded Queensland
With February nearly upon us, the traditional peak of the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season is here, and the waters surrounding Australia have been exceptionally active over the past week. We had the year's first two Category 4 tropical cyclones last week, Tropical Cyclone Wilma and Tropical Cyclone Bianca. Wilma passed over American Samoa as a strong tropical storm, and hit Tonga as a Category 3 storm, causing substantial damage to the islands, but no deaths or injuries. Wilma brushed New Zealand, bringing flooding and landslides to the North Island, and was the strongest tropical cyclone to affect that country in fourteen years, according to weatherwatch.co.nz. Tropical Cyclone Bianca skirted the west coast of Australia and dissipated before making landfall. Tropical Cyclone Anthony hit flood-ravaged Queensland, Australia, over the weekend, as a weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds. Fortunately, Anthony dropped only modest amounts of rain, and no new flooding disaster occurred in Queensland, which is struggling to recover from record floods. As reported in the latest Australian Bureau of Meteorology climate statement and flood summary, the past four months (September - December) have been the rainiest such period in Queensland's history, and the resulting flooding disaster has been Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history.
Queensland is in serious danger of renewed extreme flooding this week from Tropical Cyclone Yasi. Yasi has intensified to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, and is undergoing a period of rapid intensification that is expected to take it to Category 4 strength. Yasi is expected to hit Queensland on Wednesday, probably as a major Category 3 or stronger storm. In addition the storm's damaging winds and storm surge, Yasi will bring torrential rains. The GFS model is predicting that Yasi will dump 5 - 10 inches of rain over a large swath of Queensland, which would likely cause destructive flooding.
One positive note: the European Center model was remarkably accurate predicting the formation of Yasi over a week in advance, so Queensland has had plenty of time to prepare for the arrival of the storm.
Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 23:20 GMT on January 30, 2011. At the time, Yasi was a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 — Blog Index
(snow depth for 9 pm CST Thursday night)
The Navy has it hitting closer to Cairns, however, there is some indication it could move slightly more South than the current position.
Cat walk over your keyboard, Teddy???
Dozens...
And we didn't wear horns, either! :P
Yo! Flood!
You say fiction as if you are completely certain about it. I disagree. Is possible.
Now, on bare ground, paved surfaces, or open water...yeah, clearly it would take a lot to accumulate snow, there. How much of the mapped snow cover area is on bare ground, pavement, or open water? Very little.
Not trying to be a wishcaster, just saying it could happen. Our forecast has been stuck on "low around 30, 30% chance of rain" for Wednesday and something similar for Thursday for a while. Expect some changes if there is more model support from other models and/or 0 Z GFS and NAM.
Speak for yourself, Gro...Leif and I wore them with pride, though mine were filled with mead
BOM has it making landfall just south of Cairns also. but with a 62mile wide eye, Cairrns and Innisvale will be within the eye, all depends on where exactly she crosses. Innisvale was hit by Cyclone Larry on Mach 20, 2006. Storm report from that event can be found here. Infact, camparing Yasi's expected track to Cyclone Larry, they are very similar.
TC Larry 20 March 2006
TC Yasi
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 13.4S 160.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 160.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.9S 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.9S 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.0S 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.2S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.3S 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 159.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (YASI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 875 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, FUELED BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SOLID DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS
FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES INCLUDING KNES, PHFO, NFFN, AND PGTW. TC 11P
IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WEST- BECOMING SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AND CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IN VIEW OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TC YASI
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 125 KNOTS BY TAU 36. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY CLOSE AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF CAIRNS AS A LARGE 100+ KNOT SYSTEM AFTER TAU
48 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN
change that m to a w.....
;)
Hey, I got one right! Just hope it downgrades to nothing before it hits anywhere. How you doing Aussie?
No, that's pre-historic
Gro! Wazzup?
Yeah, it's hard to keep mead lit
So basically, you need glasses. Did I understand that right?
And you looked damn good, too! Remember this? It was a picure of you right before we kicked you out of Iceland.
Doing fine..... thanks, but very worried about people in North Queensland.
Who is from Sweden in that blog you wrote?
As are we. Looks bad right now. Hope it gets downgraded.
No, that's Torvald the fat...his daughter was why I left Iceland
Unfortunately I can't see that happening.
Don't forget, a storm surge of 10 feet plus 20 feet waves means what.........
We are too...it comes down to how much they can take at this point. The flooding there is worse than this one; I went through it and it was pretty nasty
Oh, yeah. My memory isn't what it used to be. I just remember how surprised we were when we got to Greenland and found out how warm it was. Ah, the good old days.
Full text of an open letter from 255 members of the US National Academy of Sciences in defence of climate research Link
It was 11U-Anthony, 12U-Bianca, and now 14U-Yasi.
I see there is a low in Perth's area of responsibility, but it seems Australia identifies any lows now as a number.
Note: they did not show snow cover 30 years ago.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/deetest/deetmp.6371.png
It's not worth getting that angry. A fool is wiser in his own eyes than 7 men who answer sensibly.
If you plan on trying to show the arrogant that they are wrong. Let it be known that you won't live long enough to see them admit they are wrong. In their eyes, they are intellectually superior, everyone else is an ignorant denier.
Yeah man...it was so warm we nearly froze that August
State Highs:
Laredo 88°F
Cotulla 86°F
Falfurrias 82°F
Hebbronville 82°F
McAllen 81°F
State Lows:
Dumas 17°F
Dalhart 17°F
Plainview 21°F
Marfa 21°F
Perryton 22°F
YEah, factor in the tide...40' surge? What's the record, by the way...verifiable
I'm from Sweden! ;)
Cairns Radar
Townsville Radar
Bowen Radar
Mackay Radar
National Loop
Viewing: 251 - 301
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 — Blog Index