Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

... Houston Winter Storm Warning in effect from noon today to noon CST Friday...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Winter Storm Warning for snow... sleet and freezing rain... which
is in effect from noon today to noon CST Friday. The Winter Storm
Watch is no longer in effect.

An upper level storm system approaching from the west will
combine with increasing moisture and cold temperatures in the
lower atmosphere to generate a mix of snow... sleet... and freezing
rain across southeast Texas this afternoon through Friday
morning. The precipitation is expected to begin during the early
afternoon near the coast... and spread area wide by evening. The
wintry mix will continue Thursday night then taper off late
morning Friday.

"...This decline can be partially explained by a weakening of the Walker Circulation..."

Sounds like a good subject for a future blog post.

Nature article (behind paywall):

Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing


Abstract:

Since the mid-nineteenth century the Earth's surface has warmed, and models indicate that human activities have caused part of the warming by altering the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Simple theories suggest that global warming will reduce the strength of the mean tropical atmospheric circulation. An important aspect of this tropical circulation is a large-scale zonal (east–west) overturning of air across the equatorial Pacific Ocean—driven by convection to the west and subsidence to the east — known as the Walker circulation. Here we explore changes in tropical Pacific circulation since the mid-nineteenth century using observations and a suite of global climate model experiments. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure reveals a weakening of the Walker circulation. The size of this trend is consistent with theoretical predictions, is accurately reproduced by climate model simulations and, within the climate models, is largely due to anthropogenic forcing. The climate model indicates that the weakened surface winds have altered the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results support model projections of further weakening of tropical atmospheric circulation during the twenty-first century.

It was indeed a bit of an odd storm in Vermont, as it was snowing heavily when it was as cold as 9F... from my admittedly limited experience that is quite cold for significant snow here. We've got around a foot of snow or a bit more, on top of about 2 inches two days ago and a foot or so from previous storms. Two more smallish storms in the forecast.. we're working on quite a snowpack!

Scotland preparing for Hurricane force winds with incoming Winter Gale.




Weather forecasters have warned that wind speeds could reach 80mph as gales batter parts of Scotland.

The Met Office issued a severe weather warning for the Western Isles, Shetland, the south west and parts of Ayrshire.

All schools on the Western Isles have closed early and public transport services will be reduced, the islands council said.

Overnight ferry sailings to and from Shetland have also been cancelled.

The Scottish Environment Protection Agency has also issued flood alerts, with up to 50mm of rain expected in some parts in the next 48 hours.

The stormy conditions have resulted in the Hrossey, from Aberdeen, and the Hjaltland, which was due to leave Lerwick for Aberdeen via Orkney, being cancelled.

The shipping forecast has also warned of possible hurricane force 12 winds for the Hebrides. Gusts of 63mph have already been recorded in Tiree and at South Uist.

According to the Met Office, there could be up to 60mm of rain in the west of the country and higher levels in the coming days.

They have joined the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (Sepa) to ensure co-ordination over possible flood risks.

winter precip def near FL.

hmmph. Waste of a lunch hour.

NBC news this morning reported TC Yasi had maximum wind speeds of 200mph when it made landfall in Queensland, AU. I wonder if that was right? The history of that storm doesn't show that strength.

Anyway, my thoughts and prayers are with the folks down under. They've had enough already.

Pat, GetReal, you guys seeing any snow/frozen stuff this morning?

A few Spritz of Slain and ,,well.


Were in Cautious Mode.

Quoting Floodman:
Pat, GetReal, you guys seeing any snow/frozen stuff this morning?

It is looking interesting... But there isn't much of anything yet making it to the surface...

Quoting Floodman:
Pat, GetReal, you guys seeing any snow/frozen stuff this morning?

On the northshore, very light, 95% rain 5% sleet.

Heard about icy bridges from LaPlace to BR and I-55 north of Hammond on the radio.

EDIT: I'd not be surprised if it isn't more froze-precip up towards Washington Parish, but I have no confirmed info.

This still doesn't compare with the January 1949 blizzard in intensity and length of the storm. I was seven years old then, and there were no interstates. Dad (US Army) had been reassigned from Washington DC to Seattle, Washington. It took us most of that month in our 1941 Chevrolet, following snowplows and mounting, dismounting, and repairing snow chains to travel across the country from Columbus, Ohio to Seattle.

Quoting RRunner:
This still doesn't compare with the January 1949 blizzard in intensity and length of the storm. I was seven years old then, and there were no interstates. Dad (US Army) had been reassigned from Washington DC to Seattle, Washington. It took us most of that month in our 1941 Chevrolet, following snowplows and mounting, dismounting, and repairing snow chains to travel across the country from Columbus, Ohio to Seattle.

That sounds like an adventure.
;-)

Quoting RRunner:
This still doesn't compare with the January 1949 blizzard in intensity and length of the storm. I was seven years old then, and there were no interstates. Dad (US Army) had been reassigned from Washington DC to Seattle, Washington. It took us most of that month in our 1941 Chevrolet, following snowplows and mounting, dismounting, and repairing snow chains to travel across the country from Columbus, Ohio to Seattle.

That must be the same year my mother traveled from Norfolk to Toledo for Easter and she said it snowed. She stated it took them all day to get out of Pittsburgh because of the ice on the roads and the steep hills. Imagine doing that with 2 small children in the car.

Greetings from the frozen tundra of North TX (AKA-DFW, TX) :D

Yesterday was a wonderful 13/20F, averaging 17F of exactly 30F below normal, setting a new minimum high for 2-1. Records go back to 1898.

Stuck in the house since early Tuesday. Missed work on Tu, might not go in today, as SH 360 in Arlington, TX is a solid sheet of ice from I-20 to Division Street.

Temps are a balmy 17F, W/C +5F. Expecting a daytime high of between 22-25F in Arlington, with a dusting of snow tonight and tomorrow :D

Is this legit?

Quoting Floodman:
Pat, GetReal, you guys seeing any snow/frozen stuff this morning?

Sleet in Algiers around 4:30 this morning, the plinking on my metal awnings woke me up. Since then, not much except for some very light rain.

Quoting RitaEvac:
Is this legit?

At first glance, that looked like ground clutter to me. However, as soon as I zoomed out and looked at the entire state, it didn't look so much like ground clutter anymore. Still though, there aren't any obs of snow in the area. Maybe it's virga?

Area forecast discussion...updated for mesoscale update
National Weather Service Jackson MS
933 am CST Thursday Feb 3 2011

..complex winter weather episode developing for the arklamiss...


Mesoscale update...precipitation continues to gradually expand
across the forecast area this morning. Satellite clearly shows a
wave coming across eastern Texas with ascent increasing ahead of it.
New NAM appears underdone with this feature and associated quantitative precipitation forecast given
expanding precipitation areas on radar. Temperatures are in the middle 20s over
much of the area...except upper 20s to lower 30s in the southeast.
Surface wetbulb freezing line is well south of the area...and solid
overcast has overspread the area with weak to moderate cold air
advection continuing. So seems clear that precipitation will be all
of the winter variety today.


Southeast areas definitely appear to be initially under the gun as
precipitation is increasing in coverage and intensity there and upstream.
Area soundings and RUC/laps indicate that precipitation in the I-59
corridor would be primarily a mix of freezing rain and sleet. Expect
conditions to continue to deteriorate there with temperatures below
freezing with bridges and overpasses becoming an issue. Am growing
more concerned about areas farther to the north getting into the
precipitation earlier than forecast as precipitation is continuing
to expand across much of la. Precpitation area developing over
central la would move toward Jan metropolitan if it continues to develop.
May need to speed up some warnings if trends continue. Will udpate
grids to get precipitation in the forecast sooner. It is actually possible
that we could get a break in precipitation later today and evening over parts
of the area after this initial wave of activity moves through...
before the more widespread and heavier activity overnight. In the
areas along and northwest of the Natchez trace...forecast soundings
indicate that most precpitation today will be a combo of snow and
sleet.


We will be issuing updated Special Weather Statement products and graphicasts every 1-2
hours to keep people abreast of short term trends in the wintry
precipitation. /Aeg/

Chicago Snow pics

one of many from that Photo Gallery.

Report of snizzle on someones windshield in my area. Not quite snow not quite drizzle

He could of been smoking wizzle though, whatever that means

nizzle, shnizzle, wizzle, snizzle, Snoop Dog in tha house

Aussie,

Thank you for sharing those heart wrenching photos... Thoughts & prayers for our Aussie friends.
I'm sad to see the destruction, Australia is such a beautiful country - I know the people will pull together and over come this hardship.

Peace Be With You...

Quoting AussieStorm:

omg

Quoting AussieStorm:

Aussie, what are some good charities to donate to for relieve over there?

Aussie, our thoughts are with your neighbors in the north that have suffered so much...

How are you doing? Your reporting was very good, but I'm afraid you may be a bit worn out

WOW! Thoughts are with you and yours Aussie...

12Z GFS @ 192 hours....a blast of winter......

Floodman is listening to:



It's going to be a Genesis sort of day, I fear

Hmmm...the new format doesn't allow for youtube embedment?

Quoting Floodman:
Hmmm...the new format doesn't allow for youtube embedment?

Old format didn't either....not in the last 1-2 months.

Okay, then Floodman is listening to:

Squonk

My thoughts and prayers are with the Australian people. Unfortunately, the pictures are very familiar. AussieStorm, be aware that there will be survivors guilt in the communities that did not get a lot of damage. It happened to us here in Key West after Hurricane Andrew. Some became so wrapped up in helping Homestead that they lost their businesses. It can be debilitating. Hopefully they will realize there was no fault in any of it and they will motivate themselves to help the less fortunate as they can. For the people who suffered damage and loss, in time they will think of it as a new beginning and perhaps a god send. I think the proper charity to give to for Australia is the Internationl Red Cross, indicating the funds are for relief of TC Yasi.