Russian heat wave of 2010 due to natural causes: NOAA study

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:11 PM GMT on March 10, 2011

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The deadliest heat wave in human history--the 2010 Russian heat wave, which killed approximately 56,000 people last summer--was due to a natural atmospheric phenomenon often associated with weather extremes, according to a new NOAA study. The study, titled "Was There a Basis for Anticipating the 2010 Russian Heat Wave?" was accepted for publication in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, and used observations and computer climate models to evaluate the possible roles of natural and human-caused climate influences on the severity of the heat wave.


Figure 1. Daily Moscow temperature record from November 1 2009 to October 31 2010. Red and blue shaded areas represent departures from the long-term average (smooth curve) in Moscow. Temperatures significantly above the long-term average scorched Moscow for much of July and August. Image credit: NOAA.

Here's the body of the NOAA Press Release on the study:

"Knowledge of prior regional climate trends and current levels of greenhouse gas concentrations would not have helped us anticipate the 2010 summer heat wave in Russia," said lead author Randall Dole, deputy director of research at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Science Division and a fellow of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES). "Nor did ocean temperatures or sea ice status in early summer of 2010 suggest what was to come in Russia."

Temperatures in the upper 90s to above 100°F scorched western Russia and surrounding areas from July through mid-August, 2010. In Moscow, the long-term daily average temperatures for July range from 65-67°F; in 2010, daily average July temperatures soared up to 87°. Daily average temperatures include the night. The exceptional heat over such a long duration, combined with poor air quality from wildfires increased deaths by at least 56,000 in Moscow and other parts of western Russia, according to Munich Reinsurance, and led to massive crop failures in the region.

While a contribution to the heat wave from climate change could not be entirely ruled out, if it was present, it played a much smaller role than naturally occurring meteorological processes in explaining this heat wave's intensity.

The researchers cautioned that this extreme event provides a glimpse into the region's future as greenhouse gases continue to increase, and the signal of a warming climate, even at this regional scale, begins to emerge more clearly from natural variability in coming decades. Climate models evaluated for the new study show a rapidly increasing risk of such heat waves in western Russia, from less than one percent in 2010, to 10 percent or more by the end of this century.

"It appears that parts of Russia are on the cusp of a period in which the risk of extreme heat events will increase rapidly," said co-author Martin Hoerling, a research meteorologist, also from ESRL.

Dole called the intensity of this heat wave a "climate surprise," expected to occur only very rarely in Russia's current climate. With the possibility of more such events in the future, studying the Russian event better prepares scientists to understand climate phenomena that will affect the U.S. and other parts of the globe.

The team--led by Dole, Hoerling, and Judith Perlwitz from the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado in Boulder--sifted through long-term observations and results from 22 global climate models, looking for trends that might help explain the extraordinarily high temperatures in western Russia during the 2010 summer. They also ran atmospheric models that used observed global sea surface temperatures, Arctic sea ice conditions and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in 2010 to assess whether such factors might have contributed to the heat wave.

The heat wave was due primarily to a natural phenomenon called an atmospheric "blocking pattern," in which a strong high pressure system developed and remained stationary over western Russian, keeping summer storms and cool air from sweeping through the region and leading to the extreme hot and dry conditions. While the blocking pattern associated with the 2010 event was unusually intense and persistent, its major features were similar to atmospheric patterns associated with prior extreme heat wave events in the region since 1880, the researchers found.

They also found that western Russia has not experienced significant climate warming during the summer season over the 130 years from 1880-2009, despite significant warming of globally averaged temperatures during that time. Such a "warming hole" is not unique to that region and is not entirely unexpected, as the Earth is not uniformly warming and experiences distinct geographic areas that may be warmer or cooler than the average trend.

"We know that climate change is not taking place at the same rate everywhere on the globe," said Hoerling. "Western Russia is one of the parts of the world that has not seen a significant increase in summertime temperatures. The U.S. Midwest is another."

Dole compared his team's findings to trying to hear a quiet conversation underneath the roar of a noisy fan: a summertime signal due to climate change over western Russia was drowned out by the much larger climate "noise," or variability, resulting from natural processes.

Authors of the new paper, Was There a Basis for Anticipating the 2010 Russian Heat Wave? are Randall Dole1, Martin Hoerling1, Judith Perlwitz2, Jon Eischeid2, Philip Pegion2, Tao Zhang2, Xiao-Wei Quan2, Taiyi Xu2, and Donald Murray2. The team is part of a NOAA effort to better understand the underlying causes of high-impact weather and climate events, with the ultimate goal of better anticipating them.

NOAA Climate Attribution: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/



Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4, 2010 covered an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would have extended from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

Commentary
Climate change has fundamentally altered Earth's atmosphere in significant ways; the additional heat and moisture in the atmosphere alters global sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns, making it difficult to disentangle to what degree an extreme weather event may be natural. The new NOAA attribution study on the Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is a reminder that the atmosphere is capable of generating extreme events on its own, without the aid of climate change. Attribution studies are difficult and take many months or years to complete. When an extreme weather event such as a great flood or deadly heat wave occurs, all we can say at the time is that climate change is loading the dice in favor of such extreme events. At the time of the Russian heat wave, I suspected that human-caused climate change was likely a significant factor, since a study of the world's previous deadliest heat wave, the 2003 European heat wave (Stott et al., 2004), found that human-caused climate change had increased the odds of that event occurring by a factor of four.

An important question to ask is if this type of natural atmospheric blocking event--where the jet stream gets "stuck" in particular contorted shape that contributes to extreme weather events--will increase or decrease in a future warmer climate. I asked climate modeling expert Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change blog, what the models say. His view was, "the physical basis, process, and cause and effect of blocking events are poorly understood in theory and observations and less well understood in models. It is very difficult problem, where the state-of-the-art understanding is low." So, we don't really know what will happen to blocking events in the future climate. Barnes and Hartman (2010) found that the computer models used in the 2007 [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report generally showed a decrease in the frequency of blocking events in a future climate. This occurs because the jet stream moves poleward in a future warming climate, and the jet stream is less prone to getting "stuck" in a blocking event when it is closer to the pole. The paper summarizes previous studies on the subject thusly: "Previous studies have found evidence for blocking frequency to decrease with global warming, although they disagree on whether the duration of extreme blocking events will increase or decrease [Sillmann and Croci-Maspoli, 2009; Matsueda et al., 2009]." So, the models give us reason to hope that blocking events leading to extreme weather will decrease in the future, though the uncertainty in this prediction is high. However, the climate models used in 2010 Russian heat wave study showed a rapidly increasing risk of heat waves in western Russia, from less than one percent in 2010, to 10 percent or more by the end of this century. The authors conclude that warming attributable to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations "is very likely to produce more frequent and extreme heat waves later this century," a central finding of the 2007 IPCC report.

References
Barnes, E.A., and D.L., Hartmann, 2010, "Influence of eddy-driven jet latitude on North Atlantic jet persistence and
blocking frequency in CMIP3 integrations", GRL 37, L23802, doi:10.1029/2010GL045700, 2010

Stott, P.A. , D.A. Stone, and M.R. Allen, 2004: Human Contribution to the European heat wave of 2003. Nature, 432(7017), 610-614

I'll have a new post on Saturday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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There has been some damage to Japanese Reactors but there is no major problem at this time. Running on diesel generators for backup power.

Here is the tsunami washing ashore in Sendai. Part way through it comes to a high embankment. There are people and vehicles there. It sloshes right over it.
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News reports that the waves are hitting more violently in Santa Monica. Oh, the power of suggestion.
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ABC Reporting Tsunami over estimated calling it a Falsenami only 1.5'at Daimondhead. Suspect more waves to follow Hawaii has a history of successive wave being larger.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Up to a 9ft Tsunami hitting Hawaii is now being reported
OH Lord, prayers UP & may miracles happen
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Up to a 9ft Tsunami hitting Hawaii is now being reported
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The SuperMoon on March 19th will be a shaker maker as well

Maybe.

Narita Airport in Tokyo now Closed.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
NEW BLOG
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539. flsky
Quoting HIPPOCRITT:
I just get the feeling the world is ending :-/

Well, it ends for everyone at some point....
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2047
538. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RST March 11 2011
=============================================

East of 90E, north-east of Cocos Islands, convective activity remains fluctuating and loosely organized, but available NWP models analyze a broad low level circulation at the convergence between monsoon and trade winds inflows, centered near 9S 95E. Minimal estimated sea level pressure is 1004hPa. At the present time, upper level wind shear is moderate and is unfavorable for the development of this zone of disturbed weather. For the next 72 hours, NWP models are in good agreement for a track south-westward to westward and for a slow deepening of this LLCC. It should enter our Area of Responsibility on Sunday night or Monday.

For the next 48hours, there is no potential for the development of a tropical depression. Beyond, potential becomes poor to fair at the extreme East of the basin.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Amazing live video at Diamondhead; the ocean just dropped by several feet, and now they are waiting for the rebound...

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/Global/category.asp? C=176904


Seen that also, amazing video
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Amazing live video at Diamondhead; the ocean just dropped by several feet, and now they are waiting for the rebound...

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/Global/category.asp? C=176904
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13611
The FIRST Tropical Storm of the season has formed, but remains unnamed. By all means this should be Tropical Storm Arlene, the first storm to form in March in the last 113 years. However, the NHC remains stubborn and will probably never name it. Nice... Gotta love the good ol NHC :/

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Location Lat. Lon. Time Amplitude
------------------------ ----- ------ ------- -----------

Shemya AK 52.7N 174.1E 1130UTC 05.1FT/01.56M
Adak AK 51.9N 176.6W 1112UTC 01.5FT/00.46M
Boso Japan 34.8N 140.8E 0600UTC 02.5FT/00.75M
Naha Japan 26.2N 127.7E 1022UTC 01.6FT/00.49M
Ofunato Japan 39.0N 141.8E 0603UTC 10.7FT/03.25M
Omaezaki Japan 34.6N 138.2E 0809UTC 04.6FT/01.39M
Tokai Japan 33.8N 137.6E 0649UTC 00.8FT/00.23M
Tosashimizu Japan 32.8N 132.9E 0753UTC 03.0FT/00.91M
Kwajalein Marshall Isl 8.7N 167.7E 1049UTC 01.0FT/00.30M
Midway Is. USA 28.2N 177.4W 1044UTC 05.1FT/01.55M
Wake Is. USA 19.3N 166.6E 0918UTC 01.7FT/00.52M
Legaspi Philippines 13.2N 123.8E 1020UTC 01.1FT/00.32M
Dutch Harbor AK 53.9N 166.5W 1134UTC 01.6FT/00.48M
Nikolski AK 52.9N 168.9W 1156UTC 01.4FT/00.41M
French Frigate Shoals 23.5N 166.2W 1211UTC 01.5FT/00.45M
St Paul Is. AK 57.1N 170.3W 1225UTC 02.0FT/00.61M
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The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center says that this may be more dangerous than hoped; the first wave of several has gone through, and it's been bigger than anticipated. Historically, Hawaiian tsunamis tend to increase in height as the waves come in, so the Hawaiian EOC people are saying they're now worried...
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NOAA Warning for the West Coast

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Quoting AllyBama:
thanks guygee!

You're welcome. Those buoys show the progress of the waves. The key parameters are the height of the waves and their period. If the ocean rises 1 meter in a place that is 5000 meters deep for 30 minutes, then the results when that wave hits shore are going to be significant. If the height is lower and/or the period shorter, then not as bad.
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http://www.cnn.com/video/flashLive/live.html?stream =stream2
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Damn this is really bad! Tsunami of 5ft now expected along the ConUs Coast line! WOW.......God help all in Japan and all being affected!
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The tsunami is coming ashore in Hawaii right now; water levels are definitely rising. Live video:

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/Global/category.asp? C=176904
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13611
Waiting on a report frm the some Military friends who live near the beach in NE Japan....They evacuated up to higher ground at their Base USO and waiting on a report as to their home neighborhood......God Speed to the Folks in Japan and in all parts affected by the event.
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thanks guygee!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I think the news feed from Japan will likely have Hawaiians awake and with heads up this a.m.....


My daughter and SIL have military family in Hawaii and they are up! There were put on watch 5 hrs ago and then upgraded to a warning.
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According to the National Weather Service, the tsunami is passing through Midway Island at about 1:30 a.m.

The gauge there reported a 53 cm rise and then a drop of more than 4 feet ahead of the next wave.

In total that would make the wave more than 4 feet.

Remember, there will be a series of waves with the tsunami, and the first wave may not be the biggest wave.

Source NBC News Hawaii

Nothing on their website yet about the tsunami arriving in Hawaii, just alot of reminders tht the first wave may not be the biggest wave
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I think the news feed from Japan will likely have Hawaiians awake and with heads up this a.m.....
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Prayers up for everyone in Hawaii and the surrounding islands!
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Minutes away if not right now.


Thank you. Prayers for all affected
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Quoting FFtrombi:
The only saving grace is that Japan is quite possibly the most earthquake prepared nation in the world. That will possibly make the difference between a huge tragedy and a smaller one.

Of course the economic and social aspects of huge devastation like this are immense.
I was about to say that Japan is prolly the most tsunami-prone nation in the world; it's not surprising that the word for the big wave comes from Japanese. Some of the first images of traditional Japanese art that I ever saw were renderings of tsunami. Unfortunately, as long as roads and buildings are close enough to the shore to be impacted by them, tsunamis will likely bring the treat of casualties and fatalities to the east coast of Japan.... :o(
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Quoting P451:


It couldn't look any better.

What's your thoughts on this?

All the cyclone phase evolution models has it symmetric warm core. It looks great on satellite. Windsat has it closed off and TS strength.

If it were up to me... (and thank goodness for all of us it isn't)... I'd be calling her Arlene.



It appears close to having some tropical characteristics, I wish they would update ATCF so some of the other automatic analysis such as AMSU cross section would update, that linked image is from yesterday. Latest ASCAT shows it may also be attached to a front (very, very weak).
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Where is NRAAmy location?
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Any ideal what's the ETA for the tsunami arrival in Hawaii? Soon I think?
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leading edge of tsunami is about 30 min out from Hawaii
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hello, i just need some info ,our forecast states our erc will be 38 today in lee county florida what iserc
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Water Column Height at Station 21415 (LLNR 984.85) - 175 NM S of Attu AK (50°11'0" N 171°50'56" E)

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7:22 a.m. ET: Kyodo is reporting that 2,000 residents near Fukushima nuclear power plant have been urged to evacuate. This is the plant that that developed a mechanical failure in the reactor cooling system after it was shut down in the earthquake.
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MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 12:12:53 38.052 142.542 21.6 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 12:04:16 36.351 142.700 38.4 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 11:56:16 36.356 141.504 39.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 11:54:02 36.982 142.535 45.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.8 2011/03/11 11:46:47 36.034 141.055 47.5 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.8 2011/03/11 11:44:28 36.709 142.231 31.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.5 2011/03/11 11:36:39 39.276 142.521 11.6 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Quoting RTLSNK:
44 Aftershocks after the initial 8.9 so far:

Update time = Fri Mar 11 12:06:36 UTC 2011

MAP 5.8 2011/03/11 11:44:28 36.709 142.231 31.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.7 2011/03/11 11:21:02 35.759 140.913 25.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 11:16:51 36.614 141.894 36.6 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 11:13:12 36.451 141.789 18.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 11:10:58 35.534 141.856 27.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.6 2011/03/11 11:00:51 37.813 141.481 28.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 10:58:06 39.060 142.213 30.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 3.2 2011/03/11 10:56:23 35.496 -97.090 4.7 OKLAHOMA
MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 10:52:08 38.534 143.346 29.9 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 10:45:46 38.466 143.591 41.1 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.3 2011/03/11 10:35:36 37.044 141.298 25.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 10:28:44 39.447 143.531 29.3 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.6 2011/03/11 10:20:27 36.966 142.289 21.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.0 2011/03/11 10:10:35 39.248 142.779 28.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 09:59:57 36.703 142.207 41.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 09:47:02 39.685 142.938 29.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 2.7 2011/03/11 09:45:07 19.295 -154.944 10.8 HAWAII REGION, HAWAII
MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 09:42:22 39.438 142.749 30.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 09:37:08 35.877 141.585 29.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 3.0 2011/03/11 09:33:58 19.382 -155.015 7.6 ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII
MAP 2.9 2011/03/11 09:24:53 19.351 -154.999 8.7 HAWAII REGION, HAWAII
MAP 2.8 2011/03/11 09:14:36 19.329 -154.970 11.0 HAWAII REGION, HAWAII
MAP 2.8 2011/03/11 09:10:26 19.355 -155.000 5.4 ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 09:09:15 37.717 143.267 36.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 2.5 2011/03/11 09:07:01 19.347 -154.989 0.1 HAWAII REGION, HAWAII
MAP 2.8 2011/03/11 09:05:23 19.373 -155.001 8.5 ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII
MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 09:04:10 37.299 142.655 30.5 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 3.3 2011/03/11 09:03:38 19.349 -154.950 31.4 HAWAII REGION, HAWAII
MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 09:00:20 37.056 141.966 20.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.6 2011/03/11 08:58:26 19.340 -154.992 9.3 HAWAII REGION, HAWAII
MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 08:52:26 36.763 141.910 35.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 08:46:48 37.421 142.453 37.3 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 08:40:56 37.465 141.122 38.6 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.1 2011/03/11 08:31:08 37.428 141.200 25.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.5 2011/03/11 08:19:24 36.200 142.000 19.9 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.2 2011/03/11 08:15:41 37.034 144.612 27.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.2 2011/03/11 08:12:05 36.606 141.557 19.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 08:10:31 36.394 140.631 30.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 08:01:59 37.071 142.734 22.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.6 2011/03/11 07:56:16 37.130 142.305 34.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.7 2011/03/11 07:54:45 37.742 141.565 45.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.8 2011/03/11 07:42:55 36.406 141.919 29.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 07:38:27 39.250 142.783 29.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 3.2 2011/03/11 07:32:13 33.508 -116.576 9.0 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
MAP 6.1 2011/03/11 07:28:12 36.802 141.911 24.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.1 2011/03/11 07:25:33 37.916 144.621 15.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.3 2011/03/11 07:14:59 36.648 141.811 25.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 07:13:47 36.051 142.347 28.5 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.8 2011/03/11 07:11:00 37.899 142.734 30.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.3 2011/03/11 06:57:15 35.758 140.992 30.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.3 2011/03/11 06:48:47 37.993 142.764 22.3 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 7.1 2011/03/11 06:25:51 38.106 144.553 19.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 3.2 2011/03/11 06:18:04 19.350 -154.991 9.5 HAWAII REGION, HAWAII
MAP 6.8 2011/03/11 06:15:40 36.186 141.192 35.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.4 2011/03/11 06:07:22 36.401 141.862 35.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.4 2011/03/11 06:06:11 39.025 142.316 25.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 8.9 2011/03/11 05:46:24 38.322 142.369 24.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

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Our focus in Japan
Link
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44 Aftershocks after the initial 8.9 so far:

Update time = Fri Mar 11 12:06:36 UTC 2011

MAP 5.8 2011/03/11 11:44:28 36.709 142.231 31.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.7 2011/03/11 11:21:02 35.759 140.913 25.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 11:16:51 36.614 141.894 36.6 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 11:13:12 36.451 141.789 18.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 11:10:58 35.534 141.856 27.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.6 2011/03/11 11:00:51 37.813 141.481 28.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 10:58:06 39.060 142.213 30.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 3.2 2011/03/11 10:56:23 35.496 -97.090 4.7 OKLAHOMA
MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 10:52:08 38.534 143.346 29.9 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 10:45:46 38.466 143.591 41.1 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.3 2011/03/11 10:35:36 37.044 141.298 25.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 10:28:44 39.447 143.531 29.3 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.6 2011/03/11 10:20:27 36.966 142.289 21.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.0 2011/03/11 10:10:35 39.248 142.779 28.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 09:59:57 36.703 142.207 41.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 09:47:02 39.685 142.938 29.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 2.7 2011/03/11 09:45:07 19.295 -154.944 10.8 HAWAII REGION, HAWAII
MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 09:42:22 39.438 142.749 30.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 09:37:08 35.877 141.585 29.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 3.0 2011/03/11 09:33:58 19.382 -155.015 7.6 ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII
MAP 2.9 2011/03/11 09:24:53 19.351 -154.999 8.7 HAWAII REGION, HAWAII
MAP 2.8 2011/03/11 09:14:36 19.329 -154.970 11.0 HAWAII REGION, HAWAII
MAP 2.8 2011/03/11 09:10:26 19.355 -155.000 5.4 ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 09:09:15 37.717 143.267 36.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 2.5 2011/03/11 09:07:01 19.347 -154.989 0.1 HAWAII REGION, HAWAII
MAP 2.8 2011/03/11 09:05:23 19.373 -155.001 8.5 ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII
MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 09:04:10 37.299 142.655 30.5 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 3.3 2011/03/11 09:03:38 19.349 -154.950 31.4 HAWAII REGION, HAWAII
MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 09:00:20 37.056 141.966 20.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.6 2011/03/11 08:58:26 19.340 -154.992 9.3 HAWAII REGION, HAWAII
MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 08:52:26 36.763 141.910 35.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 08:46:48 37.421 142.453 37.3 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 08:40:56 37.465 141.122 38.6 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.1 2011/03/11 08:31:08 37.428 141.200 25.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.5 2011/03/11 08:19:24 36.200 142.000 19.9 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.2 2011/03/11 08:15:41 37.034 144.612 27.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.2 2011/03/11 08:12:05 36.606 141.557 19.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 08:10:31 36.394 140.631 30.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 08:01:59 37.071 142.734 22.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.6 2011/03/11 07:56:16 37.130 142.305 34.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.7 2011/03/11 07:54:45 37.742 141.565 45.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.8 2011/03/11 07:42:55 36.406 141.919 29.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 07:38:27 39.250 142.783 29.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 3.2 2011/03/11 07:32:13 33.508 -116.576 9.0 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
MAP 6.1 2011/03/11 07:28:12 36.802 141.911 24.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.1 2011/03/11 07:25:33 37.916 144.621 15.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.3 2011/03/11 07:14:59 36.648 141.811 25.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 07:13:47 36.051 142.347 28.5 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.8 2011/03/11 07:11:00 37.899 142.734 30.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.3 2011/03/11 06:57:15 35.758 140.992 30.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.3 2011/03/11 06:48:47 37.993 142.764 22.3 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 7.1 2011/03/11 06:25:51 38.106 144.553 19.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 3.2 2011/03/11 06:18:04 19.350 -154.991 9.5 HAWAII REGION, HAWAII
MAP 6.8 2011/03/11 06:15:40 36.186 141.192 35.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.4 2011/03/11 06:07:22 36.401 141.862 35.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.4 2011/03/11 06:06:11 39.025 142.316 25.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 8.9 2011/03/11 05:46:24 38.322 142.369 24.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

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Latest WindSat


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Sub-tropical storm... Too Cold??
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the cloud structure almost looks tropical however it is more of a sub tropical system since seas surface temps are not that warm to support a warm core imo however as it moves nearer to the coast it might just squeeze a tropical status lol but its march anything cud happen
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.